Hydrometdss

Global Extreme Weather Log

WEEKLY GLOBAL EXTREMES

(Article Mnager-news and events)

This page provides a weekly log of unique weather events and information that summarizes some key events of note. Most of these notes are from Electroverse Extreme Weather daily updates

For clips of these events see my Global Weather Album: Global Weather 2020-2021.

 

Global Weather Album 2020-2021: https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8  
Global Weather Album Spring 2021:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8  

Global Weather Album Fall-Winter  2021-22:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7

 

The purpose of these Global Extreme Weather Logs is to educate and inform you about Mother Nature’s way of keeping a balance in our planet’s weather.  I provide examples of events that may not be reported elsewhere and physical explanations of the causes of these extremes.

 

29 NOV 2021

A very active jet stream pattern in the N Hemisphere brought a series of storms from N America to Siberia and China.   The Alps and Pyrenees received heavy snow as a northerly flow off the Bay of Biscay and the North Sea provided a cold moist flux into the mountains.  The Pyrenees has forecasts of 120 to 236 cm and Alps 50 to 136 cm.  A large ridge of high pressure (1040 mb) extended from the Canary Islands to just S of Iceland pulling cold air from Greenland (-38ºC) south into Europe.  Spain was under orange and red alerts due to heavy snows with snow below 800 m msl.  Temperatures were 16ºc below normal.  A rare November snow - Storm Arwen -  trapped 60 Brits in a pub for 3 nights in Tab Hill, Yorkshire UK.  Snow blocked the pubs exits and piled high on cars.  Roads were impassable.  This was not in the Highlands, and was indeed a rare event.  All of the UK had nights below freezing - quite unusual.  

Slovenia’s Alps received 1 to 1.5 m of new snow this week as much the country had a few cm.  Its heavy rains soaked the county this week and turned to snow.

As mentioned last week Arctic blasts have continued this week to hit Japan and Korea with historic snow and cold shutting down parts of Russia and China. Shumarinai had 77 cm a record snowfall in 24 hours. Many records fell across Japan.  China had its 3rd cold wave dumping another 43 cm in Heilongjiang - NE China.  Rare -50ºC in Yakutia RU closed schools.

A Peer reviewed study of climate model’s over estimates of CO2 effects revealed that there are NO credible scientists warning of a “climate emergency”. The peer reviewed study found models have over estimated temperature rise by a factor of +5, this is consistent with the earlier paper reported in the Wall Street Journal that found the attribution statistical analysis linking AGW to CO2 critically flawed.  Key points of the paper a summarized here:  notrickszone.com  . COP26 had many dire warnings of AGW from our political leaders.

Argentina had rare snows this week, even Ushuala at the southern tip of S America had heavy snow.  Antarctica also continued unusually cold with -50ºC at Dome A and Concordia Research Station in late November - incredibly rare cold…  The South Pole registered an average 6 month temperature of -61.1ºC the region’s coldest recorded even as the deep (930-950 mb) storms piled 1-2 meters of snow along the coastal mountains.

Australia and NZ warmed to seasonal temperatures as heavy rains along Antarctic fronts continued to provide from 50 to 250 mm.  The main southern jet moved poleward; however, periodic storms still push Antarctic blasts inland less frequently.

North America’s NW coast from Alaska to Seattle was the target of a strong jet and associated Atmospheric River AR.  This threatened the rain soaked area again with floods and debris flows as the high elevations had heavy snow 1-3 m on the coast and ~1 m in the Canadian Rockies.  The SW US was warm and dry while cold air flowed south across the Plains east of Colorado into the Gulf of Mexico.  NE had some snows as the Quebec Low pulled down cold air.  Our meridional flow will continue to provide warm and cold periods as storms travel along the jet.

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Albums at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8
and:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7  

For those who are curious about our weekly weather events and extremes have a look at the weather albums.  This week the events range from heavy snows in Iceland to heavy rains in the Amazon; Photos of the UK and Japan snowstorms… Cold extreme weather in both hemispheres are shown with examples of the atmospheric river that is dumping 5 meter snows in Alaska and the Antarctic Peninsula. You also have images of clouds and cloud temperatures.  Tropical Tidbits temperature anomalies are shown for the US EU and Australia.

 

 

 

21 Nov 2021

 

Extreme Floods hit NW and BC.  The Aleutian Low guided the Atmospheric River AR into the Pacific NW this past week causing havoc and isolating Vancouver by debris flows and floods.  This storm moved across the Canadian Rockies into the Prairie Provinces as a major winter storm (982 mb).  This week the BC coast still has the AR from the next Aleutian low and jet with heavy precipitation (125-333 - 457mm) with Heavy snow in the Coast Range (125 to 311- 416cm).  Fortunately this heavy precipitation was N of Vancouver.  This type of weather is typical of a strong la Niña.  The central N Pacific also has 2 to 4ºC warm anomalies this week.

 

The north and south polar jet streams continued their meridional traveling wave pattern which delivers a variety of warm and cold weather around the world as the ridges and troughs move eastward.  Most notable in the temperature pattern is the extreme cold hitting Eastern Siberia and carrying heavy snow into NE China and Japan.

 

India has extreme smog in the capitol city New Delhi (0.2 km visibility CO concentration up to 2770ppbv…) .  Note windy.com tracks air quality from the GEOS-5 satellite and model forecasts with estimates of NO2, PM2.5, AEROSOL, OZONE LAYER, SO2, AND DUST MASS.  China and India are clearly the most dangerous places; however, you can monitor this globally.

 

New Zealand’s rain forest received 200 to 533 mm - heaviest I have seen in these 10-day  ECMWF Rain Accumulation forecasts.  SE Australia in Victoria they had 108 mm forecasts with 100 to 183 mm NW of Sydney north along the coast the Hunter Valley vineyards in New South Wales. The Antarctic fronts broke the 167 year old records in Australia this winter - Melbourne had 4 days below 15.5ºC this late into spring..  We have watched those Antarctic blasts. Much of the continent had -8 to -18ºC below normal on 14 Nov 2021.   

 

Arctic Sea Ice Extent is the second highest in 15 years and growing.  Greenland is building its snowpack and sending cold air SE into Europe.  Norway and Iceland have been cold and snowy with 59-177 cm and 84 to 213 cm of snow respectively as a series of lows pass northward.  Arctic Owls were even spotted in Spain, where they have also received significant snow (140 cm) this past week.  These birds are rarely seen this far south.

 

UK’s energy market continues to rise as forecasters are predicting an extremely cold 6 weeks ahead.  Scotland has had some significant snows in the Highlands - up to 60 cm with snow extending south to high elevations across the UK and Ireland.

 

A ridge of high pressure is keeping the West relatively warm this week with Thanksgiving +/- 4ºC in the West, -2 to -16ºC below normal from Amarillo to Winnipeg, warm from Texas to Ontario, and Cool in the East -2 to -4ºC below normal in the latest GFS model predictions.

 

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Albums at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8
and:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7  

 

For those who are curious about our weekly weather events and extremes have a look at the weather albums.  This week the events range from heavy snows in Iceland to heavy rains in the Amazon.  Cold extreme weather in both hemispheres are shown with examples of the atmospheric river that is dumping 5 meter snows in Alaska and the Antarctic Peninsula. You also have images of clouds and cloud temperatures.  Tropical Tidbits temperature anomalies are shown for the US EU and Australia.

 

Have an enjoyable Thanksgiving.

 

 

 

15 Nov 2021

 

The purpose of these Global Extreme Weather Logs is to educate and inform you about Mother Nature’s way of keeping a balance in our planet’s weather.  I provide examples of events that may not be reported elsewhere and physical explanations of the causes of these extremes.

 

This past week the strong jet streams in both hemispheres continued.  Keep in mind the primary driver of the jet is the difference in atmospheric density from poles to equator.  Density is a function of temperature, thus the sun really controls it and of course as the sun travels south in the N Hemisphere the N polar region cools and S Polar region warms.  The equatorial regions remain relatively constant with the seasons; hence, the importance of polar temperatures and the pole to equator temperature gradient. The Grand Solar Minimum GSM has a major impact on the radiative balance from net incoming radiation to volcanism.  Clouds and ocean currents are much more important than all greenhouse gases.

 

Colorado had a couple snows, but the Sierra (20-70cm) and N American Coast (100-200 cm) ranges picked up significant snowfall again.  The meridional flow of the jets again was quite strong transporting warm and cold air around the globe.

 

Greenland had a very strong High pressure of >1060 mb in the Canadian, Swiss, and ECMWF models on 13 Nov.  This is usually not seen until mid winter.  Earlier Siberia had a 1050 mb High. Summit Camp hit its coldest temp of this season -55.6ºC.

 

Record heavy snow fell in NE China this week with many deaths and shortages of food and power grid failures.  Twenty-seven 100+ year old records fell.  Temperatures fell 20ºC below normal.  N Korea and Japan have had early snows of 20 to 40 cm already.

 

DC had the coldest start to November in a decade and Thanksgiving is predicted to break cold records.  LeHigh Valley, PA watched its record -5ºC set in 2009 and 1954 in GSM cycle 23 and 18 respectively.  

 

North Africa has had early snow from snow flurries to High Atlas of Morocco 10 to 30 cm forecasts already.

 

On Nov 7th, Australia had continent wide cold 4 to 12ºC Below Normal including plenty of precipitation and snow in the Snowy Range.  New Zealand is still getting significant 20-80 cm snowfalls.

 

While the Antarctic warmed to -34 to -53ºC at the South Pole and Vostok stations, the Peninsula continued to pick up 175 to 522 cm snows from deep storms (970 to 926 mb).  The Andes also picked up significant snowfall (113 to 35 cm).  Brazil had significant convective storms (100 to 250mm) in their drought areas helping to mitigate the drought; however, reservoirs in Sao Paulo are nearly dry.  

 


Regarding clouds, I have been modeling them since my early days with the US Navy Weather Research Facility in 1968 working with NOAA and USAF.  We have come a long way, but long range climate models do not yet have the ability to predict them accurately for comprehensive radiation balance and detailed precipitation forecasts.  Hence, I think the COP26 and IPCC folks don’t mention their critical importance.  Models may provide a general estimate of clouds, but clouds are very complex and are functions of processes on scales from microns ( cloud and precipitation physics) to hundreds of kilometers (mesoscale and synoptic scale - jet stream) hydrodynamic lifting and sinking.  Today’s operational forecasting numerical models explicitly simulate the dynamics and thermodynamics and have parameterized microphysics for cloud processes.  These models have 4-dimensional data assimilation systems that continuously update the lateral boundary conditions with millions of real-time observations around the world from surface stations, ships and buoys to satellite sounding systems and radiometers working at a multitude of wavelengths.  Without these real data, the models would wander off and numerical solutions would become unstable within a few days.  Chaos theory is still quite real.  Remember the butterfly effect.  AI will certainly help, but remember it is only as good as the data it is based on.  We have no real data from 2025 let alone 2050…Models don’t provide real data.

 

The best explanation of clouds and greenhouse radiation that I have seen is a lecture by Richard Lindzen.
Radiative balance: MIT Professor Emeritus Richard Lindzen
 A Classic Lecture on Climate Sensitivity by Atmospheric Scientist Professor Emeritus Richard Lindzen delivered in Europe in April, 2014. Prof Lindzen has been at the top of this field for decades, and was a lead IPCC author during the early years of the IPCC.
                         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2czGg3fUUA
 Stefan-Boltzmann radiative emittance law E=σ Τ4 σ=5.67 x10-8 W m-1 Tº-4
 
This law is a key control of the greenhouse effect.  Temperature is the primary driver and cloud temperatures vary from 10 to 30º for low clouds to -30 to -80ºC for high clouds and thunderstorm tops.  You can monitor these on the windy.com satellite images.

 

Stefan calculated sun surface temp of 5430ºC in 1879 vs 5504ºC observed today.  I’ve seen this range from 5500 to 5700ºK.

 

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Albums at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8
and:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7  

 

For those who are curious about our weekly weather events and extremes have a look at the weather albums.  This week the events range from heavy snows in Iceland to heavy rains in the Amazon.  Cold extreme weather in both hemispheres are shown with examples of the atmospheric river that is dumping 5 meter snows in Alaska and the Antarctic Peninsula. You also have images of clouds and cloud temperatures.  

 

RCAT Note: The October 2021 Consumer Reports has an excellent article on The Big Problem with Plastic, pg 42-49.

 

8 NOV 2021

TRAVELING WAVES on the jet stream are bringing a variety of warm and cold temperature anomalies (dT) as storms move around both hemispheres.  This is a typical fall as we transition into winter in the N Hemisphere. Michigan observed its record daily snowfall (11.7 inches) for November this week.  TropicalTidbits.com clearly shows the evolution of these storms in the 2 meter dT GFS model forecasts.  The Nov 12th Australian forecast clearly shows a strong Antarctic front cooling most of the continent with dT of -12 to -20ºC west of Adelaide. South America also has had a series of Antarctic waves move northward with dT of +/- 8 to 12ºC.  Southern Africa warms, but it still has several Antarctic waves bring cold air northward with similar swings of dT.

The strong Pacific jet south of the Gulf of Alaska low accelerates (150-180 kt) and pushes the atmospheric river into the West coast of North America from N Calif to Anchorage.  You can see 2-3 short waves on this jet where the energy is concentrated.  You can also see a very strong flux of moist warm air carried northward on the lee side of the Rockies into the Arctic.  This is clearly balanced by cold air flowing into the Gulf of Alaska  and south into the Pacific NW US.

Slovenia and the Alps have received significant snows making their satellite signature look more like winter as many places received 30 to 200 cm.

The S Hemisphere’s jet continued to spin up deep storms that have been dumping 100 to 300 mm of rain in NZ’s west coast rain forests.  Its S ALPS have also resumed relatively heavy snows of 30 to 70 cm.  Australia has been quite wet (50 to 200 mm) this year with wide spread rains triggered by the Antarctic cold fronts. Dry regions like those in central Australia near Alice Springs have had 20 to 80 mm rains.  Similarly in Brazil, heavy rains have replaced the drought with 100 to 250 mm dumps in frequent thunderstorms.  windy.com ’s radar images clearly show the OBSERVED thunderstorm distribution predicted by the ECMWF model runs.  

THIS PAST WEEK COP26 and the G20 discussed AGW.  Political leaders from the Earth proclaimed we are under a cataclysmic threat to our survival due to fossil fuels.  The speakers worried about everything from the Fiji Islands disappearing to vast deserts reclaiming our agricultural production and severe storms killing thousands.  Many dramatic examples of the impacts of severe storms, glacier shedding and dust storms showed our climate changes today.  HOWEVER there was no scientific evidence linking these well documented extreme weather events to CO2 and AGW causes.  Yes, CO2 is rising. Yes, the temperature extremes have been observed (both hot and cold).  Sea level rise has not been significant-yes there have been high tides and floods with storms especially when in sync with lunar tides.  The Westside Highway on Manhattan is still quite dry, not under water as NASA’s Hanson predicted in the
1990’s for 2015.  The challenge remains for the activists to discuss the physics of AGW with the other side of physicists.  MSM refuses to present both sides.  There are thousands of skeptic scientists,  not deniers as in a religious cult, but realists. The COP26 speakers characterize the realists as ignorant nonbelievers who should be canceled. Extremist rhetoric should not be shaping trillion dollar investments.  Science is not governed by consensus or the loudest voices.  Britain’s Viscount Lord Monckton made a compelling physical argument on the realist side of the story at the Heartland Institute’s annual Climate Reality Forum in Glasgow.
see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7p1O6aYlnE
Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Albums at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8
and:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7  

For those who are curious about our weekly weather events and extremes have a look at the weather albums.  This week the events range from heavy snows in Iceland to heavy rains in the Amazon.  Cold extreme weather in both hemispheres are shown with examples of the atmospheric river that is dumping 5 meter snows in Alaska and the Antarctic Peninsula.  Lord Monckton’s presentation of physical evidence of climate variability and key COP26 presenters are shown.  Satellite and radar examples of cyclonic storms, thunderstorms, atmospheric rivers, warm and cold advection jet streams, snow-covered Alps and Rockies…

You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Pacific bringing cold air to N America (cold open cell advection)  and heavy snow along N America’s west coast…Warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico to Ellesmere Island. Our spectacular Bomb low off BC is documented with the heavy precipitation forecasts from SFO to Alaska…. GFS snow and temperature forecasts are shown.

1 NOV 2021

 

GULF OF ALASKA extratropical cyclone (959 mb) and storm series pumped 4.7 m of snow into the mountains on the Kani Peninsula south of Anchorage in the 26 Oct 10-day QPF.  The past 7 days of ECMWF new snow 10-day forecasts have been running between 473 to 566 cm with 4 days having >500 cm.  This is the highest I have seen in this area.  The Gulf of Alaska low (940-970 mb) has been pumping Pacific moisture into the Anchorage area during this time.

 

WINDY.COM's satellite loops of the earth show the meridional flows Poleward (warm advection) and Equator-ward (cold advection) and the driving storms of this heat transport.  If you take time to look at these, you will see how dynamic and balancing nature really is.  You gain a better appreciation to the laws of physics for mass and heat conservation.  Yes, we do have extreme weather events - hot and cold; the laws of physics dictate that globally they must balance.  In the Grand Solar Minimum we’ll see extremes, but the frequency and intensity of cold events will seriously cut crop production due to shortened growing seasons: Early and late seasonal frosts.  

 

The net dT (temperature anomaly) in the Little Ice Age was only a drop of 1.6ºC below the global average temperature, but the Thames River and the Nederland canals froze. The Little Ice age was in the GSM’s 400 year cycle, which NASA and NOAA are now predicting for us in 2021-2030.   This is not an Anthropogenic Global Warming or climate change that the IPCC claims today.  Our best numerical models cannot predict this over 10-30 years.  However, Astronomers can predict the orbital mechanics, solar cycles and their geomagnetic and gravitational impacts quite accurately.

 

NEW ENGLAND had its first intense Nor’easter winter storm (980 mb)  move up the coast on 27-28 Oct. Wind gusts in this storm exceeded 90 kt near Boston. In Oklahoma severe weather with hail and damaging winds developed along a cold front that marked the N-S transport of heat and moisture flux, thus balancing this energy and mass flow.  Conservation of energy and mass is evident in every storm.  Satellite cloud top temperatures from Oklahoma to Kansas were -45 to -50ºC indicating deep convection - thunderstorms.

 

A second major storm followed the Nor’Easter over the SE US on 29 Oct.  This storm followed up the East coast with additional major flooding due to the saturated soils.  These deep storms look like the SE Canadian cut-off lows that persisted thru last winter pulling cold air southward.

 

Western Snows have dumped record or near record early snows in the Sierra permitting ski areas Mammoth, Mt Rose-105 cm, and Palisades-Squaw Valley-90 cm ) to open a month early. Donner Summit had its 2nd snowiest-October on Record according to the UC Berkley Central Sierra Snow Lab.  Heavy snows are predicted  for the western half of the US thru mid- November - have a look at the weather album.

 

Colorado’s 9News showed some interesting numbers on 20 Oct 2021.  They showed snowpack at 263 to 1133% of normal with 346% above median…Early snow fall can be grossly misleading since the average may be 1-5 inches, so it is easy to get 1000% above normal, but it could all melt by the next week !! Nonetheless the more consistent snows we get the better.

 

UK is facing record cold and snow forecasts too.  Scottish Highlands are predicted to cool to -6 to -10ºC by 5 November.  The UK is turning back to coal for its energy during these cold times.  You can watch the cold advection behind storms on the windy.com satellite images in motion, select 12 h and let the video run.  TropicalTidbits.com also shows the deviations from normal temperatures.  You can watch these change in motion from day to day also. Look at  models and select thermodynamics and 2 meter T.

 

Kashmir Valley min T registered -1.1 and 1.7ºC - rare for October.  Delhi, Punjab Plain, and Haryana are dropping below normal.  Last year these areas set record breaking 12.5 ºC on 29 October.

 

Here in Europe, CNN runs an ad showing the Atacama Desert with an old wooden row boat as the ad talks about “CLIMATE CHANGE WILL AFFECT PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD”, inferring this desert is a product of climate change.  Unfortunately this desert is over 3 million years old, and the driest non-polar desert on Earth.  It is not changing with climate as the large scale global dynamics at 23º N and S in the Hadley Cell produce strong subsidence that warms and dries the air.  The Atacama is also on the lee side of Chile’s coast range 1.5 km msl and lies west of the high Andes 3-4 km msl; hence it is in a rain shadow like Death Valley.

 

The southern hemisphere jet continues to be quite strong and drives strong storms that have continued to dump 2 to 4 m of snow in the Antarctic and 1-3 m in the Andes.  Australia and new Zealand’s snow fall have decreased significantly; however the rainfall and severe weather have been significant in NZ’s rain forests and across Australia.  

 

THE SUN had a Cronal Mass Ejection CME that should hit earth on 30 Oct with bright auroras and some electronic interruptions.  

 

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Albums at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8
and:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7  

 

You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Pacific bringing cold air to N America (cold open cell advection)  and heavy snow along N America’s west coast…Warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico to Ellesmere Island. Our spectacular Bomb low off BC is documented with the heavy precipitation forecasts from SFO to Alaska…. GFS snow and temperature forecasts are presented.

 

25 OCT 2021

The purpose of these Global Extreme Weather Logs is to educate and inform you about Mother Nature’s way of keeping a balance in our planet’s weather.  I provide examples of events that may not be reported elsewhere and physical explanations of the causes of these extremes.

MAJOR WINTER STORMS are arriving a month early this year in the N Hemisphere from N America to Europe and Asia.  This week’s global weather album shows examples focusing on one major storm (963 mb) off the Pacific coast from Alaska to San Francisco.  This classic mid-winter storm dumped heavy rain and snow from SFO to SW Canada where the ECMWF 10-day QPF predicted 200-300+ mm and NOAA’s 7-day had 5 to 15 inches of rain.  Mountain snows were from 1 to 3 meters in the ECMWF model.  This storm dropped  to a “Bomb” pressure of 948 mb on 23 Oct.  as it rapidly intensified and moved N off the BC coast.  Interestingly in the Southern Ocean a deep 923 mb storm pounded the Antarctic with 1-3 m of snow at this time.

The GFS model is predicting significant snowfall (1-3 feet) from Alaska to Colorado over the next 15 days.  Eastern N America will also build a snow cover from the Smokey Mountains to Labrador.  Mt Washington had its first 5 inch snow this week

Scotland and even central UK had some snow and more predicted into central UK.  The Alps may get 20-30 inches.  Slovenia’s Triglav mountain melted off much of its early 50 cm snowfall this week, while LJU hit 0 to 1ºC. Scandinavia has been receiving up to a foot of snow with more coming this week.  Finland’ deepest October snow on record is 60 cm in 1967, on 18 October 2021 they had  20 to 60 cm in the ECMWF forecast thru 28 oct 2021.  Sweden had 60 to 178 cm in that forecast with exceptional cold -18 and -16ºC in Finland.

Over 13 people in India died in heavy (40 to 120 cm) mountain snows this week.

Volcanoes continue to pour ashes and lava from La Palma to New Guinea’s new stratovolcano and Japan’s Aso Volcano on 20 Oct 2021.  Volcanic ash and dust in the stratosphere significantly cools our atmosphere by blocking solar radiation.  

Australia continued to get Antarctic fronts that are now triggering large hail producing thunderstorms as spring arrives.  I can watch these on windy.com, seem to have more than I’ve noticed before.  The Andes continued to get 1-3 m of snow on the highest mountains as deep storms and strong westerly jets circle the southern hemisphere.  

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8
and:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7  

You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Pacific bringing cold air to N America (cold open cell advection)  and heavy snow along N America’s west coast…Warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico to Ellesmere Island. Our spectacular Bomb low off BC is documented with the heavy precipitation forecasts from SFO to Alaska. La Nina re-established and intensified, reinforcing the long range forecasts for a cold wet NW, warm dry SW.

 

18 OCT 2021

The purpose of these Global Extreme Weather Logs is to educate and inform you about Mother Nature’s way of keeping a balance in our planet’s weather.  I provide examples of events that may not be reported elsewhere and physical explanations of the causes of these extremes.  

WINTER is approaching many parts of the N Hemisphere as it recedes in the South.  Our jet streams are intense and provide a variety of warm and cool fall - winter weather.  Many areas have had hard freezes, thus stopping crop development.  Food supplies are tight and prices are rising.  

The Rockies had their first significant snowfall from Montana to Colorado (18-10 inches respectively) as Alaska and the BC had 2-4 meters of snow in the ECMWF forecasts.  The
Andes and Antarctic continue to get 2-4 m of snow in the high elevations and along the Antarctic coast from deep cyclonic storms.  

We have many examples of cold advection in satellite imagery this week.  Cold advection is the transport of cold air behind cold fronts and is especially prominent when cold air flows over warm sea water causing convective clouds to develop.  These Open Cell or Closed Cell patterns are easy to identify. I mark these areas with blue arrow on the weather album imagery. This week we saw these patterns in the N Pacific, N Atlantic, and in the N Sea as cold air flowed into central Europe.

Hard freezes cut crop growth in many areas from the Rockies to Central Europe and across Siberia. Windy provides an excellent view of the cold advection.

China power rationing in 1/2 country - power crisis is limiting industrial production.  China is forced to move to coal as is the UK due to natural gas shortages this winter.

German perspective on global warming http://plasmaresources.com/ozwx/landscheidt/pdf/NewLittleIceAgeInsteadOfGlobalWarming.pdf  “New Little ICE Age Instead of Global Warming?” by Dr Theodor Landscheidt
September 7, 2020 Cap Allon
Among the long list of scientific papers suggesting that a solar-driven spell of global cooling is on the cards, Dr Theodor Landscheidt’s ‘New Little ICE Age Instead of Global Warming?‘ probably has the claim of priority.
For those who looked at windy.com ’s NH satellite loop on 17 Oct,  you saw a perfect example of the strong meridional flow from Florida to Ellesmere-Baffin Islands carrying warm advection up NE N America.  Quite impressive. The atmospheric river actually started in Mexico ahead of a strong cold front (warm sector).  Have a look at my album  (red arrow).  I look at windy.com loops every morning when doing my yoga wake-up.  - a great learning tool… NOAA’s GOES East GeoColor satellite images give you another high resolution look at these systems.
CNN has been playing an ad showing the Atacama desert with a boat on dry land and desert out to the horizon (990 mi).  You may have seen this.  We see it often in SLO, only thing is that desert has been dry for thousands of years, and occasionally fills.  It is on the west side of the Andes and controlled by large scale subsidence and a two-sided rain shadow (only 15 mm of rain/yr - driest non polar desert).  CNN also shows inundation maps of cities showing “AGW sea level rising”  (potential 6 m rise)  FALSE unproven forecasts…easy to map but based on unproven models.  NOAA produces inundation maps for hurricanes and extreme floods.  I worked with the teams in NOAA,NASA, and USGS that developed these maps in the mid 1990s.  
Colorado is just south of the main storm track, so will get some snow but not close to the precip in the N Sierra up to the Canadian Coast range in the next week.
Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8
and:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7  

You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Pacific bringing cold air to N America (cold open cell advection)  and heavy snow along N America’s west coast…Warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico to Ellesmere Island.

11 Oct 2021

The purpose of these Global Extreme Weather Logs is to educate and inform you about Mother Nature’s way of keeping a balance in our planet’s weather.  I provide examples of events that may not be reported elsewhere and physical explanations of the causes of these extremes.  

Hurricane Sam moved into the N Atlantic this week bringing extreme tropical moisture northward off the coast of Laborador by 5 October, then moved rapidly as an extratropical cyclone into the UK by 8 Oct.  Upper level Moisture from this storm flowed across the UK and down into the Bay of Biscay and on into the Mediterranean Sea and up into Italy and Slovenia on 6 October.  windy.com's satellite loop clearly showed how inter-connected we are.

You have probably noticed that the Southern Ocean storms around the Antarctic are quite intense and large.  This is due to the very strong temperature gradient from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean and the large Coriolis Force at high latitudes.  Often we have 50 to 100 mb pressure changes over relatively short distances which drive the wind.


The geostrophic wind speed is

 

V=1/rho (1/f * dP/dN)

where the pressure gradient is dp/dn change of pressure over distance, rho is air density and f is the Coriolis factor that is a function of sin of the latitude.  The colder the temperature the denser the air;  Cold dense air flows down hill into the low pressure centers. When you look at the satellite images they clearly show this flow of cold air  (cold advection) pointing to some extreme events denoted by their open cell or closed cell convective clouds.  I show this phenomenon on satellite images in the Global Weather Albums.  Today, we have a large area of open cell convection in the Pacific from Alaska to California behind a Pacific Cold Front that will impact the Rockies this week.

Russian forecasters are predicting an “Extreme Deep Winter Freeze” this winter in early January, they expect temperatures to be “twice as severe as average”.  They cite this snow season’s snow mass as already off to an impressive start at 250 Gt above the 1982-2012 average.  This week the Balkans region suffered freezing temperatures 10 to 16º C below normal.  Also the South Pole just suffered the coldest winter in recorded history, thus pointing toward a similar hard winter in the N Hemisphere.

On 6-7 Oct Kredarica SLO’s mountain observatory at 2514 m msl had 48 cm of new snow, its first significant snow this fall.  The ECMWF model forecast put a 75 cm max in the ALPS and 77 cm in the Carpathians of Romania and Serbia.  The model also predicted the first significant snows in North America from 300 cm in Alaska to 150 in BC, and 170 in the Black Hills of SD.  Satellite imagery clearly shows the new snow covering the Canadian Rockies and Coast range.

A strong cut off low moved into the Adriatic producing heavy rains and snow in the mountains for 4 days…. The US also had a deep cutoff low that produced flooding in the saturated soils of the SE as the jet stream’s omega blocks slowed the eastward movement of these systems.  Note that the blocks are part of a strong meridional (N-S) flow typical in the GSM.  Western Siberia was cold and clear under a strong blocking high (1045 mb) .

On October 6th the ECMWF model predicted a 10 day maximum of heavy snow in the West.  US forecasters picked up on this on the 8th predicting feet of snow in the Rockies as a major winter storm moved from the Pacific on the 11-12th… The Central Rockies from Montana to Colorado received its first significant high elevation snows Oct 9-10th with more to come.  Hard freeze warnings covered many areas.  California fire fighters are finally getting some help from these storms as our beautiful Sequoia National Forest burns.

Las Palma volcano is producing more explosive eruptions this 3rd week.  

Note: Google is planning to ban all advertisements on “Climate Denial Content” so much for free speech and a truthful competition of scientific thought.  Not all scientists walk in lock step with a totalitarian AGW view point.  We have yet to see a healthy debate on this subject in the MSM.

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8
and:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7  

You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Pacific bringing cold air to N America (cold open cell advection)  and heavy snow along N America’s west coast….

Enjoy our 1st significant snow in the Rockies this week.

 

4 Oct 2021

Major cyclonic storms dominated the past week as the meandering jet stream in the NH intensified and the SH jet continued its strong flow.  From the Deep Alaskan (976mb) storm that battered (170 to 250 cm) western North America and brought moisture into the NW Territories and northern Manitoba, to the Barents Sea storm (978 mb) that is building up the Norwegian snowpack (15 to 62 cm), we had a very active start to a cold Fall.  The central US enjoyed a warm Indian Summer with some record heat.  Slovenia had a record 120 mm of rain in an intense thunderstorm that hit LJUbljana on 29 Sept.  We were having diner when a bright flash and instant crack of thunder shook our place.  Extremely heavy rain followed for an hour as the cold front passed thru.

Greenland’s temperature continued to fall as it was the coldest (-30 to -38ºC) part of NH and it continued to build its glaciers (55 to 233 cm) over large areas.  Snow Mass Balance remained positive with 1 to 10 GT/day increases this month. The 10 GT/day was an all time record (records began in 1981 for the Danish Arctic research institutions).  The past year (Oct 1 2020 to 30 Sept 2021) was the 28th heaviest on record with 396.6 Gt. Note 1 Gt is equivalent to 1 km3 of water.

Southern Ocean storms continue to fascinate me when I look at windy.com's satellite imagery in motion.   You can see the deep storms (970 to 930 mb) pushing frigid Antarctic air off the continent creating large areas of cold unstable air (open cell convective cloud patterns) over the relatively warm ocean, then pulling moist air back down onto the continent dumping heavy snow (160 to 280 cm) along the coast this week.  The Andes were hit by a strong meandering jet and moist Pacific/Southern Ocean flow that dumped 150 to 250 cm of snow in the ECMWF 10-day forecasts.  Australia and New Zealand have had many Antarctic cold fronts cool them and deliver snow to their mountains up to 5 meters in one storm on MT Hitts, NZ.  The Australian Snowy Range has also been hit by significant snows this winter into late season October snows.

South America has a similar story of historically low temperatures that destroyed large areas of coffee and corn crops.  Extreme drought in Brazil has also dried up reservoirs to record levels and led to rare dust storms.  South Africa is also under threat of record cold this week.

The 2021 - 2022 winter is shaping up to be an extremely cold event, if this fall is an indicator.  From early cold records in N America and Europe to snow storms that have killed experienced mountaineers on Mt Elbrus, Europe’s highest mountain and those in India to the global energy shortages, it is looking like a GSM cold year.  Dutch TTF gas prices sky rocketed 10% due to limited storage capacity and new weather models that predict a colder than expected winter.  UK has activated coal plants to keep up with demand as gasoline and gas shortages cut supplies.  Brent crude soared to $80/barrel.

Tropical cyclones from Hurricane Sam and TD Victor in the Atlantic to Indian/Arabian Sea Cyclone Shaheen to Pacific Typhoon Mindulle continue our very active season that is delivering tropical moisture northward and into the Saudi Arabian Peninsula.  The UK, Iceland, Norway and Greenland have been impacted by these systems delivering early snows.

Record high coral coverage across the Great Barrier Reef developed this year, contrary to the claims of catastrophic bleaching.  An Australian expert,  Dr Jennifer Marohasy, presented a comprehensive look at the Great Barrier Reef and sea level at the Climate Change Concern Forum in Maroochydore, Australia.  She has been studying sea levels for over 30 years and has an interesting presentation that describes impacts on the Great Barrier Reef.  see:  https://youtu.be/dVlu-7_FxD8 You'll see there are many natural causes for sea level variations from lunar gravitational pull and 18-year orbital cycles to cyclones and extreme phase syncing of these phenomena that amplify tidal surges.

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at: 

https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8


and:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7

 
You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Southern Ocean, and heavy snows in Australia and New Zealand, and the global SST anomaly (La Nina is developing) among other things again this week.  The Los Palmas volcano’s potential Tsunami map is shown. This week the volcano continued to flow producing toxic gases like H2SO4 as lava hit the sea causing massive evacuations.

27 SEPT 2021

SNOWICANE intensifies into a massive polar vortex (953 mb) over the N Atlantic and Arctic Ocean stretching from Greenland to Norway.  This storm continues to push heavy snow into Greenland, Iceland, and Norway.  Hurricane Sam may be the next tropical pulse of moisture into the N Atlantic, we’ll see.

Snow is falling across the higher elevations of Russia from the Urals to Kamchatka covering relatively large areas with from 20 to 120 cm.  Three large lows fed cold air down from the N Atlantic, Kara Sea, and Arctic Ocean as short waves moved across Siberia.  Cold winter-like high pressures are moving cold air southward from Greenland (1043 mb) and E Siberia (1040 mb).

Western North America from Alaska to Vancouver also is getting significant high elevation 10-day snow forecasts of 80 to 369 cm, while NE Canada gets 67 to 171 cm on Ellesmere and Baffin Islands.  It looks like an early winter up North.

 Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, attributed this year’s healthy ice gains to a persistent cold low-pressure system over the northern Beaufort Sea that sent northwest winds over the Chukchi.

German scientists reported that the ERA5 temperature data is consistent with the cooling that has dominated East and West Antartica over the past 40 years.  The Antarctic Peninsula warmed but it is not significant compared to the 2.8ºC cooling over the large East and West areas.  German climate website Die kalte Sonne recently posted its 64th climate video. In it, they examined a new paper on Antarctica by Zhu et al (2021) entitled “An Assessment of ERA5 Reanalysis for Antarctic Near-Surface Air Temperature”.  Note that I have been observing the daily reports from the French Meteo and University of Wisconsin showing relatively cold persistent temperatures in the Arctic and Antarctic.

China’s floods and poor crop yields have resulted in a jump of 221% in corn imports reported on 21 June 2021.  Gas storage in Europe is dwindling as prices sore and UK is forced to restart its coal plants.  AGW was a hot topic in the German elections primarily due to the record floods along the western border last summer ( see July 19, 2021 Log) that were falsely attributed to AGW.

Deep storms continue to dominate the Southern Ocean where SSTs are cooler than normal. These have persisted in dumping significant snows on the Antarctic Peninsula and Andes this week.

This past weekend millions of good meaning citizens of the Earth demonstrated against fossil fuels and AGW.  I would venture to say few if any truly understood the complexity of the Earth’s greenhouse gases and how the greenhouse radiative effects work.  It is not as simple as a glass greenhouse.  Most have never heard of black body radiation let alone the Stefan-Boltzman law of black body radiative emissions which govern the greenhouse emissions in our atmosphere.  This law is quite simple E=σ Τ4 σ=5.67 x10-8 W m-1 Tº-4 and T is the black body temperature ºK.  You can see the complexity of this by looking at windy.com's satellite images which now show the skin temperature of the surface as seen by satellites.  Today, Saudi Arabia had a surface temperature of 37ºC (310ºK) and a few clouds at -7ºC (266ºK) this resulted in an 15% variation of T4.  India with the Monsoon had a clear sky surface T of 9ºC (282ºK) and a deep cloud top T of -80ºC (193ºK) with a 79% range of T4.  You can see this results in quite a range of emissivity.  Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT Emeritus Professor, and former lead author on the IPCC team provides a comprehensive review of the greenhouse effect. You can see this below.

 Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8
and:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7  

You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Southern Ocean, and heavy snows in Australia and New Zealand, and the global SST anomaly (La Nina is developing) among other things again this week.  The Los Palmas volcano’s potential Tsunami map is shown. This week the volcano continued to flow lessening the chance for a catastrophic Tsunami.

Enjoy our Indian Summer in Colorado and watch Hurricane Sam march up the central Atlantic.  It may have a major impact in Europe and Greenland again.

 

20 SEPT 2021

Early in the week TS/Cat1 Nickolas hit the Texas/LA coast with R+++ (280 mm) causing flash flooding and extensive damage.  Snowicane Larry also dumped record SMB (9 GT) on SE Greenland (ECMWF 10-day fcst: 217 cm - 3to 6 ft).  This was a classic transition from Hurricane (tropical cyclone) to an Extratropical cyclone (low 974 mb) which greatly intensified as it moved northward.  At the same time the Southern Ocean continued to support 6 major storms (962, 937, 955, 941, 965, and 929 mb center pressures).  These dumped a maximum amount of 275 cm on the Peninsula.   

IPCC is challenged by economist experts on attribution fingerprinting as published in Climate Dynamics  technical journal.

THE NH and SH jets continue to deliver strong storms with heavy rain and snow in the mountains.  Scotland had its first snow forecast (14cm) as Iceland (136cm) and Norway (64 cm) had significant amounts.  Alaska and BC had 1-3 m of new snow predicted over 10 days.

Western Australia (WA) has September late frosts that cut the greenbelt crop production by up to 50%.  This week much of Australia will have another cold blast that may take temperatures to 16 ºC BELOW normal.  Dry conditions and frosts in the North have also impacted crops in the grain growing regions there.  Extreme blizzards are striking both hemispheres this week. Have a look at the Fall Weather Album to see New Zealand’s record snow fields at Mt Dobson Ski Area.  

China, India and Ethiopia continue to get heavy rains as their monsoons persist.

Interesting scientific studies of Australian wild fire carbon emissions and ash fallout in the ocean have shown that large algae blooms are consuming the fire’s CO2 and producing O2 as the phytoplankton grows thru photosynthesis.  Thus Nature is balancing the harmful fire CO2 production scientists at CSIRO say.

Record gas prices across Europe are closing industries and forcing government intervention before the predicted upcoming cold winter.  The US was to ship LNG to Europe, Russia was also to send gas, but diverted it to China.  Here in Slovenia we have rising prices for gasoline and food too.  Our friend’s garden was hit hard cutting the size of vegetables and yield due to dry hot and cold waves.  Europe is set to freeze as a powerful Arctic blast moves south including the sunny side of the Alps in Slovenia this week.  We’ll see.
 
Los Palmas had its first volcanic eruption in 50 years, thus contributing to global cooling. But the most critical component is potential for a MEGA -Tsunami that could hit the US East coast with 10-25 m waves thus washing away many coastal towns according to a study by Steven Ward and Simon Day. See Fall Weather Album.

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8
and:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7  

You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Southern Ocean, and heavy snows in Australia and New Zealand among other things again this week.  The Los Palmas volcano’s potential Tsunami map is shown.

 

13 SEPT 2021

 

As the Fall Equinox approaches both the hemispheres have more intense storms and extremes due to the meridional flows transporting warm air poleward and cold air toward the equator.  Colorado broke record high temperatures on 3 consecutive days. Argentina did the opposite.

 

The subtropics continued to generate tropical cyclones including Hurricane Larry which was CAT 4 in mid-Atlantic then a “Snowicane” as it became a massive blizzard when it passed Newfoundland and was forecast to dump 3-5 feet on Greenland and Iceland.  This should boost the Greenland Surface Mass Balance to record levels for this date.  Hurricane Sandy dumped 2-3 feet of snow in the central Appalachians in October 2012.

 

The US continued to clean up the massive destruction caused by Hurricane Ida and its remnants that created massive record floods from Pennsylvania to NJ and NY and rare NE Tornados from MD to NY.  MSM attributes this storm to AGW, however, we should remember that the Subtropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico SSTs were near normal (bathtub temperatures 25-30ºC) and the vertical wind shear was minimal where the storms formed and developed.  Hot SSTs and little wind shear are keys to developing tropical cyclones.   These occur naturally in summer and during the hurricane season.  Again remember the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 that caused massive destruction and loss of life (6,000 to 12,000 people died).  This was pre-hockey stick AGW.  It was the worst storm in American history.  Ida’s extreme flooding and tornados in the NE was aided by vertical wind shear in the jet above a cold front that lifted the massive subtropical moisture causing R+++.

 

The US GFS model is predicting early season accumulations to hit the Western US starting next weekend in the Sept 10-26 model run. We shall see.

 

Europe is looking at increased gas prices and is starting coal plants to meet expected demands.  Russia is diverting gas to China and Turkey ! Very interesting geopolitical events as we cope with the Anthropogenic Global Warming AGW.  China is buying the global grain supplies and other key commodities that will be and are becoming scarce as food prices rise.  China’s Bridge and Road project built the large dam in Ethiopia which is now filling thanks to a strong African Monsoon, like the SW Monsoon that has flooded parts of India and China all summer leading to crop failures.  China hopes to harvest crops in this area like Europe did in the Little Ice Age.  China also continues to build coal fired plants.

 

Our N and S jet streams continue to evolve and drive major storms that remain intense in the Southern Ocean and are intensifying in the N Pacific and N Atlantic.  The Northern jet is regaining its winter intensity and with the help of tropical cyclone moisture is spinning up storms like the snowicane (976 mb) off Greenland and intense Aleutian lows that are feeding heavy snows (1-2 m) into Alaska’s coastal mountains.  Even the record heat region of BC now is having early snows atop it’s peaks - Very exciting weather for us meteorologists - extreme climate variability.

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Albums at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8 and https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7

 

You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Southern Ocean, and heavy snows in Australia and New Zealand among other things again this week.  Note: it would appear that the Tidbit anomalies are still at odds with the IPCC statement that this is the warmest year ever.  The Wall Street Journal had an interesting critique of the latest IPCC report used to stir the alarmist MSM.  It noted that the IPCC now considers AGC less intense and extreme impacts may not be felt until 2050 to 2100.  Recall that NASA’s Hansen predicted the Westside Highway of Manhattan will be under water  by 2015.  It isn’t.  We need to teach our students more about the underlying physics of climate and weather and less about reactions to alarmist climate change.  They must understand why conservation of water and energy is good for our planet, not that they should just “save the planet” from fossil fuels.

 

 

30 Aug 2021

Hurricane IDA made land fall in Lousiana as a Cat 4 with gusts to 150 kt, heavy flooding rains and tidal waves and surge causing massive damage.  Saturated soils from Fred and Henri contributed to extreme flooding.  TS Nora is moving up the Gulf of California and will bring R+ to the SW US and Colorado this week.

Europe had fall-like conditions this week as a significant low passed across the UK into the Baltic sea bringing a cold front across central Europe that dropped temperatures to 4 to 12ºC below normal.. The upper air analysis looked much like a mid-winter cold low producing a strong northerly flow into central Europe.  Triglav had a fresh snowfall as the glacier slowed is melt. Large portions of transcontinental Russia will be affected by 6 to 12ºC colder than normal temperatures Sept 5th to 11th..  Russia’s Arctic Ocean coastal waters were ice free from the Barrent’s sea to Alaska, even Franz Joseph and Svalbard Islands were ice free.  However, the ECMWF model kept the Ob River Estuary frozen so far.  Canada’s NW Passage remained closed with thick 2-3 m ice at Ellesmere Island.

Arctic Sea ice was mainly confined to the Greenland to Beaufort Sea and N to the Pole.  Greenland’s Surface Mass Balance remained above the 20-year normal curve with large fluctuations in August as major storms dumped 1-2 meters of snow over large areas and the warm thin coastal areas melted rapidly. The SH ice extent anomalies from June 1079 to 2021 continued it upward trend - growth over the past 40 years with a slope of 0.8+- 1.1% per decade. Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2021 is the 5th highest on record in the 42 years of satellite data.

SH jet remains very strong (215 kt) SW of Australia continuing to spin up deep extratropical cyclones (lows) with center pressures from 959 to 935 mb.  Relatively heavy snows fell around the Antarctic coast and up to S Georgia Island (50 to 475 cm) as the cold Antarctic temperatures remained at -59 to -74ºC this week.  Cold records were set from South America to S Africa (19+) with historic snowfall in S Africa.  The Chilean desert of Atacama even had a rare dumping of late season snow.  September freezes will impact the already devastated crops in the continent’s growing regions: Brazil and Argentina.

Australia and New Zealand remained cold with snow in the Snowy Range of SE Australia and both heavy rains(100 to 300 mm) in the NZ rainforest and snows in the Southern Alps.

The IPCC released its AR6 report which declared a state of climate emergency again.  This report reminds me of the three blind men describing an elephant.  Cherry picking data to suit a particular scenario fails the basic truth test.  Yes, hot records were broken from SW Canada 49.6ºC to Spain…; however, many cold records were also set around the world.  Depending on your data set, the earth warmed or cooled.   Natural variability makes representative temperature measurements difficult at best.  The fundamental sources of energy remain the sun and oceans on earth.  Watch out for the latest CME solar flare impacting earth this week.

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8

You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Southern Ocean, and heavy snows in Australia and New Zealand among other things again this week.  Note: it would appear that the Tidbit anomalies are still at odds with the IPCC statement that this is the warmest year ever.

23 Aug 2021

windy.com announced its new partnership with OpenAQ, “the world’s largest open-source air quality data platform.  They track O3, PM10, PM2.5, SO2, No2, CO, and black carbon from over 44,000 stations.

US is hit by two Tropical Storms (Fred) and hurricane (cat 1) Henri this week that produced heavy rains and flooding.  NYC had 2/h R+ an all time record rate of rainfall.  NE had large areas of flash flooding and power outages due to fallen trees in saturated soils.

NH Jet begins to organize with short waves bringing local cooling and warming and a block in Quebec-Me pushing Henri west before recurving to NE - a rare event.  Parts of Europe are experiencing fall-like cool temperatures dropping 8 to 16ºC below normal.  The GSM’s major impact is shortened growing seasons which are now predicted by the latest GSM runs in Europe.  Slovenia had a comfortable week with max T from 23 to 31, followed by a cool rainy Monday Tmax at 16ºC.

Heavy rains continue in India (200-800 mm) and China (250 mm) in the SW Monsoon, while the African Monsoon continues to keep Ethiopia wet with 50 to 150 mm..

SH jet remained strong with many Antarctic blasts (short wave storms) pushing cold air northward.  Argentina had 6.6 ft of snow shutting down large areas and sending frost into Brazil, where coffee growers suffered major losses.  Over 33 Rio Grande do Sul cities in Brazil had snow on Wednesday in historically cold weather.

Here is a comprehensive review of the latest IPCC report.  It is lengthily and deals with key chapters in the IPCC and the flawed statistical processing which was just published in a technical reviewed paper in Climate Dynamics.

see: https://electroverse.net/the-cover-up-of-problems-the-ipccs-methodology-is-flawed/  

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8

You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Southern Ocean, and heavy snows in Australia and New Zealand among other things again this week.  Note: it would appear that the Tidbit anomalies are still at odds with the IPCC statement that this is the warmest year ever.
Global Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2021081618&fh=6  


16 Aug 2021

Alaska  gets its first wide spread snow (5-23 cm) in the Brooks Range, while the SE high mountains near Mt Logan had 171-200 cm.  

Antarctic faced deep storms on the Peninsula (933 mb) with 10 m high waves and heavy snows as four intense storms pounded the coast from Wilkes Land to the Peninsula.  S Georgia Island got 95-131 cm from these deep storms.  The deep 938 mb storm off  Wilkes Land Plateau dumped 1-2 m of snow in New Zealand’s south island - a very significant storm.  Tasmania even had 51 cm from this storm.  NZ’s rainforests along the coast had 180 to 330 mm of rain in this storm.  Have a look at the album to view the satellite and ECMWF analyses of these classic storms. On 10 August 2021 another beautiful classic storm (933 mb) developed over the Weddell Sea.  This was one of 4 major storms on the 10th.

Europe has a hot summer week that quickly melted remaining glaciers.  Belgium had record 166 mm rains in July. After a brief heat wave more summer snow is set to blanket higher elevations of the continent this week.

N America has had extreme heat in the West that sent a pulse eastward to NE with dense wildfire smoke; however, this system moved quickly followed by Canadian air in the North Central US.  Canada’s polar vortex continued to gyrate from Ontario and Quebec to Baffin Island giving relief to northern states.  The GFS model analysis in Tropical Tidbits showed a    tight storm in NE Canada, where the NW Passage remained frozen. The US Drought Monitor showed some monsoon relief in the SW, but extreme Drought covered large areas.  The Colorado River is in a severe water shortage triggering an 1850s or so call on the River.

TS Fred moved across the Florida Panhandle into the SE keeping that area relatively cool and wet.  The latest Weekly Sea Surface T Anomaly dTSST showed a large warm area from Japan to the Aleutian Islands and BC coast.  NOAA is predicting a La Nina to develop this winter; however, we are in a neutral condition now.  The Antarctic is normal, but the hurricane formation zone from W Africa to the Gulf is also normal…

The Farmers Almanac predicts the US will have cold and warm periods with a “polar roller coaster” a typical GSM winter.  Alaska has begun to build its snow cover from the Brooks Range (30-50cm) to the Mt Logan area (50 to 180 cm) next to SW Yukon.  

The Andes continue to build their glaciers with 2 to 4 m snowfalls in strong storms.  New Zealand received an Arctic blast that chilled Wellington with snow down to sea level and dumped 50 to 200 cm of snow on the southern Alps.  SW Australia picked up snow as did Victoria and Tasmania. In S Africa, the Cape mountains had more snow and cold weather.  Brazil’s corn yield was again cut to 86.7 million metric tons down from 96.4 predicted in June.  The Global Food Price Index climbed from 102 to 127 according to the FAO.

Japan’s Hokkaido Island had its coldest summer temperature in 128 years of records the daily high was 10.5ºC with many incidents of noctilucent clouds.  To the south, Tokyo’s Olympic games were the “hottest” ever.

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8

You can see TropicalTidbit’s Global temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Southern Ocean, and heavy snows in Australia and New Zealand among other things again this week.  Note: it would appear that the Tidbit anomalies are at odds with the IPCC statement that this is the warmest year ever.
Global Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2021081618&fh=6

9 AUG 2021

NW gets a reprieve from the extreme heat as the NE part of Canada still has 30 to 50 cm of new snow on Ellesmere Island and the NW Passage at 60ºN.  Russian Arctic coast is ice free in the ECMWF runs now.  The Quebec-Hudson Bay Low continued to spin over Eastern  N America pulling cool air into NE and significant snows into higher elevations of Greenland and from Baffin to Ellesmere Islands.  SW Canada remained warm and dry, but a bit cooler than the record heat wave.  Greenland continued to gain surface mass balance (Gt/day) with a large swing from -8Gt to +2 Gt a net rise of 10Gt this week.  The +2 Gt on 8 Aug was enough snow to bury Central Park NYC with 2,238 ft (682 m) of snow.


Smoke in the West dominates the scene this week as huge wild fires continue to devastate California, Oregon and Idaho.  Visibility in Summit County dropped to 1 mile leaving only silhouettes of the mountains and Action Alerts for poor air quality. Denver and the High Plains remained hot in the 90s while our Summit County minimum temperatures dipped into the 30’s.

The N Hemisphere Jet continued to strengthen with some pulses of energy exceeding 100 kts.
TropicalTidbits.com provides nice analysis of the temperature anomalies that the short waves (warm and cold fronts) generate. You can run the model simulation from current analysis out to the end of the forecast (120 to 220 hrs).  The Asian Monsoon continued to dump 500-1000 mm rains in India and China extending their flooding and sharp loss of crops. Ethiopia also continued to get significant rains that should be filling their new CCP White Nile Dam.

THE FARMERS ALMINAC is predicting a varied winter that also fits that expected from the GSM.  Recall that the global temperature departure from normal was 1.5ºC below the average of 13.9ºC in the Little Ice Age, not a glacial period drop of -15ºC that led to huge global glaciers for 100,000 years or so.  The primary GSM impact was on the length and quality of the growing season: early fall frosts and late spring frosts cut the time available for growth, while cool wet conditions also cut yields.  This forced Europe to turn to N Africa for grains… America should be developing the modern high tech agriculture to produce food 7/24/365 per year.  NASA’s hydroponic and aeroponic research for space travel should be expanded to large scale production for our country.  Aeroponic systems use 5% of the water required for normal ground  agriculture and consume CO2 while producing O2 in a controlled environment.  

Tropical Tidbits showed the Southern Africa GFS temperature forecast departures from normal dT swinging from +6 to +8 down to -8 to -15 ºC this week as Antarctic blasts swept northward.   Brazil, Argentina and Australia also had large swings.  Have a look at the photo album for details.


Four large high pressure systems dominated the  S Hemisphere from the Indian Ocean (1033) Australia (1031) mb to S Pacific west of S America (1036) and S Atlantic (1033 mb).  The strong southerly flows on the east side of these systems brought cold air northward.  New Zealand had rare snows on the N Island around Wellington, and good 1-2 m snow in the S Island snow fields.  Remember MT Hutt had 5 meters of new snow earlier this year.

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8

You can see TropicalTidbit temperature anomalies, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Southern Ocean, and heavy snows in Australia and New Zealand among other things again this week.

2 AUG 2021

GSM and Gas Giant alignment have created a historic geomagnetic field and cosmic ray influx that is rapidly moving us toward a colder wetter climate with regional droughts under the meandering high pressure ridges.  The SW monsoons of N America and Asia are creating locally heavy flooding in N America and wide-spread historic flooding in Asia across China and parts of India.  These Asian floods are crippling food production while droughts and cold in S America have severely reduced corn, coffee, and other crops thus creating higher food prices.  Floods in Europe have cut grain production in Germany and France, while extreme cold cut wine and fruit production LAST SPRING.  Adapt 2030 is tracking these impacts in greater detail.  Sustainable regenerative food production and storage are becoming a critical need as we move into the GSM globally.

The N Hemisphere Jet is regaining strength and pushing cold air into NE US as the monsoon continues in the SW and excessive heat is pushed east from the NW.  A short wave in the jet will cool the NW this week.  TropicalTidbits.com provides an interesting global summary of current model predictions and anomalies ( https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2021080206&fh=6 ) from the 1981 to 2010 averages.  This week it shows the GFS model cooling the NW by 5-10ºC below normal and NE warming by 7-12ºC by Friday. You can check forecasts out to 384 hours depending on the model (ECMWF TO 240 HR 10 days).  There’s lots of other information here too.  

Colorado was hit hard by flash floods, debris flows and high rivers laden by burn scar debris and soils.  Many water treatment plants could not use the river water.  I-70 our main E-W highway was closed in Glenwood Canyon as huge boulders and rockfalls have destroyed parts of the road bed.  This may remain closed for several months.

Slovenia enjoyed a comfortable week with many scattered thunderstorms and rain showers on the sunny side of the Alps.

HISTORIC COLD hits the S Hemisphere with major impacts on crops in Australia, New Zealand Argentina, Brazil and other producing areas of S Africa.  The southern jet continues to spin up deep storms in the Southern Ocean that are building glaciers in the Andes (2-4 m) and New Zealand (1-2m). Wine production in NZ down 30%, similar impacts are expected in parts of Australia.  France was already hit this spring.  Wine prices are set to skyrocket.

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8

You can see cloud motion following the European storm, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Southern Ocean, and heavy snows in Australia among other things again this week.

19 JULY 2021

Cold Arctic air helped cool central Siberia from the Arctic Ocean to Uzbekistan as seen in the cloud motion on windy.com . Significant beneficial rains hit Slovenia as an Atlantic Cold Front passed Central Europe bringing max temperatures down to the comfortable 20s and lower humidity.  This was part of the intense cut-off low that caused severe historic flooding across Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The winter-like extratropical cyclone spun up on 12 July and persisted to 18 July in a near stationary closed low pattern that triggered heavy showers and thunderstorms.  Over 160 people died and 1000 were missing in the catastrophic debris flows and flooding around Altenahr, Germany and Belgium and NL.  

On 17 July, I counted 7 active extratropical cyclones and waves across the N Hemisphere, another unusual event for summer.  The most intense were in the Gulf of Alaska, Quebec, N Atlantic, and SE Europe.  The Atlantic and Quebec storms continued to push deep snows into Greenland which is having record Surface Mass Gains SMG during the normal periods of mass loss due to summer melting.  These SMGs are the highest on record according to the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI).  Ellismere Island in NE Canada is also still getting 20 to 80 cm of snow as the NW Passage remains closed with 2-4 m thick ice on the north side of Greenland.  One stretch of the Siberian coast remains closed by 1-2 m thick ice too.

The USDA has announced that Farmers on the northern Plains will have the smallest grain harvest in 33 years cutting the spring wheat harvest by 345 million bushels, down 44% from 2020 and smallest since 1988.  They blamed this on record cold, persistent drought and the “fierce Pacific NW heat wave”.  NOAA’s GFS model is predicting record summer chills for the midwest and south (4 to 16ºC) below normal.  

Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand are having heavy snows and some record cold temperatures as the deep Southern Ocean storms push Antarctic cold northward. Nambia had -10ºC, the lowest-ever July temperature while Botswana also had heavy frosts and record cold.  The GFS model is predicting heavy snow in Victoria and New South Wales from 15 to 26 July.  New Zealand is getting 60 to 180 cm while Australia has 40 to 120 cm of new snow.  The Andes are building glaciers with 190 to 377 cm snows.

China, India, and Ethiopia continue to receive heavy monsoon rains that are causing flooding and crop losses in China and India.  Ethiopia is filling the reservoir behind the new Chinese build dam on the White Nile.

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8

You can see cloud motion following the European storm, photos of Southern Africa’s snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and deep storms in the Southern Ocean, and heavy snows in Australia among other things this week.

 

 

 

12 JULY 2021

 

 

 

 

5 July 2021 Happy 4th +1

 

A strong meridional and omega blocked flow is continuing into the N Hemisphere’s summer producing extreme weather from NW US to central Russia.  If you look at the 12 hr video of cloud motion you can clearly see this driver of our weather.  SW CANADA and the NW set all-time records 49º C (121ºF) in Lytton, BC, while Zion NP had flash flooding in the SW Monsoon.   Eastern US also is breaking high temperature records as the omega block continues to reinforce the meridional flows.

 

This was a week of extremes in both hemispheres from floods to heavy snows, record max temperatures in western North America to record Antarctic blasts pushing snow into Brasil and chilling the crops from sugar cane to coffee.  The USDA also reported low crop plantings that were more than 1 million acres short of the expected grains due to late plantings in a colder than normal spring.  Even Texas enjoyed a cool 4th of July as Canadian air pushed to the Gulf States - a rare summer event!

 

Drought persisted in the SW; however, some areas had a reprieve when the monsoon returned moisture to western Colorado and Summit County.  We need a steady monsoon flow like SE Asia and China have had the past month.  Japan even caught some extreme rain that caused flash flooding and debris flows killing over 20 people.  The ECMWF model has been predicting 200 to 1200 mm of 10-day rainfall from Northern India to SW China and Japan with some 20 to 100 cm snows in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau.

 

Europe has enjoyed a relatively normal summer so far with a cooling westerly flow off the Atlantic keeping extremes down; however, Russia has been hot as the long Arctic summer days heat up the region.  The meridional flows help balance the extreme heat and cool periods.  Slovenia has been quite comfortable with relatively dry summer days and cool nights so far.  The Alps snow cover is now limited to N facing slopes and deep drifts.

 

Western Australia suffered one of its coldest starts to winter.  Antarctic blasts will keep much of Australia 4 to 8ºC below normal with the risk of freezing posing a risk of losses of lambs and sheep in Victoria by 20 July according to the American GFS model.  Brasil had a record challenging -3.9ºC in Bom Jardim da Serra some 8 to 16º C below normal.

 

The Andes continued to build the glaciers as 2 to 4 meters were consistently predicted in the ECMWF 10-day forecasts.  Further south the Antarctic also built up its snow and ice with 120 to 262 cm predictions as persistent -65 to -75ºC temperatures hit the interior stations.

 

Have a look at the detailed charts and documentation in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8

 

You can see the thermodynamics of the Canadian record temperatures, photos of Brazilian snowfall, record Surface Mass Balance snow accumulations in Greenland, and heavy snows in the Andes among other things this week.

 

 

 

21 JUNE 2021

Southern Hemisphere continues to crank up the storms and intensify the southern jet that drives the storms (929 to 970 mb central pressures) around the Antarctic dumping 1 to 3 meters of new snow on the first 50 to 100 km inland, where it is warm enough to have significant snowfall.  The Antarctic has a near record breaking cold winter -10ºC colder than normal.  The coldest reported so far was -81ºC.  Vostock’s long term record was -89 which during the past couple years was exceeded by -95ºC.  

NZ and SE Australia continue to get significant precipitation with snow at higher elevations as Antarctic blasts of cold air prevail.  NZ had all-time record cold and the 5 meter snowfall last week.

Argentina is having record cold and snow in June which is predicted to extend into July as heavy snows build in Patagonia… Paraguay and Uruguay had a colder than average and very dry May 2021.  Their temperature anomalies were -0.5 and -2ºC (31 and 28ºF) below the 1981-2010 baseline.

Detailed charts and documentation are available in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8

 

TS Claudette hit SE US with heavy rains(5-10”), strong winds(40-80 kt), and tornadoes on 19-20 June.  

 

SW US CONTINUED in an extreme to exceptional drought and record heat.  Denver had 3 days in a row with 100º a record too.  The NW and NE remained in a cool northerly flow.  Next week will see cooler temperatures (10-16ºC below normal) from the Rockies to mid-west predicted by the GFS model.  This will provide significant relief to the recent  excessive heat.  One should remember that the SW US has had many droughts over the centuries before fossil fuels.  One such drought lasted from 1130 to 1180 producing a significant drop in the Pueblo population in the San Juan Basin.  The SW Deserts have existed for hundreds of years.

 

The sun was active this week with another Corona Mass Ejection CME away from the Earth.  However, the sun is rotating and we may yet feel the geomagnetic impacts disrupting our power systems, computers, etc.  Record cold in the Mesosphere is causing noctilucent clouds (NCLs) to spill out of the Arctic Circle and cover more than half of Europe - down to the Italian Alps and SLO.  We may see them next week in SLO.

 

SLOvenia enjoyed a mild to hot week with temperatures going from 28 to 33º C causing significant melting of the remaining snows in the Alps - now Triglav and Kanin are reporting 190 to 160 cm as the Kredarica chapel emerges from the deep 500 cm snow depth of May.  

 

Strong N Atlantic storms continued to push cold fronts and rains across Scotland and England as they warm to the low 20s.  Have a look at windy.com ’s satellite images of these beautiful classic storms.  

 

Greenland and Iceland continue to get limited snows as the interior of Greenland warms to -10 to -20ºC and the coastal areas to 5 to 12ºC.  Svalbard and Franz Joseph also had snow this week as the Arctic ice melted around the coast of Siberia.

 

 

14 JUNE 2021

Once again the southern hemisphere is in the spotlight as major deep (944-960 mb) storms circle the Antarctic and spinoff waves that keep Australia, New Zealand and South America cold with some record snows and cold weather.  Cold fronts bought locally heavy rains of 50 to 200 mm.  Even the Wallaby of Australia were surprised to see snow on the ground!  Coldest temperatures in the Antarctic were -70 to -77ºC in contrast to Greenland with -13 to -17ºC.


The northern hemisphere continued to warm; however, the jet stream regained intensity and moved into a meridional (N-S) flow that balanced record early heat waves in the SW with cool wet NW and NE short waves.  Even the West Coast of Africa had a strong, sharp wave that penetrated to the Mauritanian coast, quite unusual. Russia warmed in the West and was cool in the East.   Canada’s Atlantic Provinces had rare frosts and snowing early June.

Asia’s SW Monsoon brought much needed snows (1-2 meters) to the Himalayas and India with heavy rains (300 to 800 mm) at low elevations of India and China.  Floods continue to hurt agriculture in China and Three Gorges Dam may overtop.

Europe also had waves of hot and cold weather as the jet remained active.  Coldest temperatures in the Antarctic were -70 to -77ºC in contrast to Greenland with -13 to -17ºC.  Slovenia had a comfortable sunny week with 25 to 28º highs as the remaining snowpack continued to melt to 263 - 290 cm.  

The SW US remains in an Extreme Drought with reservoir levels down to 30% of normal.  We desperately need a strong monsoon season.  However, with record heat and humidity of 5 to 15% the fire season is looking grim today.

Detailed charts and documentation are available in my Global Weather Album at:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8

7 June 2021

 

Australia gets significant snows in SE mountains over 55-100 cm with 60 to 135 mm at lower elevations.  NZ is hit by Antarctic blast that dumped 500 cm of new snow on Hutt Mtn (2190 m msl).  Most of Australia braces for sustained Antarctic blasts this week.  Andes get 2-4 m of snow in a beautiful case of cold advection seen on the windy.com  satellite imagery.  Have a look at the Global Weather Album where a classic 948 mb storm with clouds showing Antarctic cold advection flowing over the relatively warm 7ºC Southern Ocean west of the Andes is featured.  The open cell convective clouds are generated by the cold unstable air and typically produce snow showers.

 

ANTARCTICA continues to cool (-60 to -75ºC) as deep storms pass by - a 947 mb low was just north of the Weddell Sea with 14.6 m and 14 s period waves on 2 June.  This had the largest waves that I have ever seen in the ECMWF model.

 

Brazil suffers an extreme 100-yr drought forcing the hydroelectric power production down and requiring fossil fuel plants back into production to meet rolling blackouts.  Crop production is down 25%.  

 


China braces for extreme floods that are more devastating than 2020 and cuts food production.  Imports are up 4.5 times last year’s. The ECMWF model has been consistently predicting 200 to 500+ mm 10-day rains over the past month.  India’s SW Monsoon is now dumping 300 to 750 mm 10-day rains as the Tibetan Plateau continues to get 30 to 100 cm snowfalls providing a nice thermal gradient to drive the SW Monsoon.

 

During the past week, Slovenia has had beautiful spring days (25ºC) between rainy days as the mountain snow depth decreased below 4 m.  On 26 May Kredarica had 520 cm on the ground about 320 cm above normal for that date.  May was a cooler (-2ºC) and wetter (+200%) than normal month.

 

The Northern Hemisphere jet stream is changing into its summer mode with a weak flow moving closer to the N Pole.  In contrast the Southern Hemisphere is strengthening and driving very intense storms that are producing cold Antarctic blasts into Australia, NZ and South America.  

 

Greenland, Iceland, Norway and Russia are still receiving significant snowfall (145, 106, 47cm), while the Alps are down to 2-4 cm.  Europe is beginning to look like summer with showers and thunderstorms.  

 

Summer is starting early in many areas of the US with unusual early warm records set from the West coast to New England.  Hot areas are balanced by cold areas to conserve mass and energy.  It will be interesting to see how our records are broken this season.  Volcanic activity is up with many stratovolcanoes injecting ash and dust high into the stratosphere.  This reduces the incoming solar energy as the increased cosmic rays also produce more cloud nuclei that increase clouds also reducing net tropospheric energy according to the Grand Solar Minimum hypothesis.  We shall see…

 

 

1 JUNE 2021

Greenland continues to build its SE snow fields with a record 12 GT on May 27, 2021, according to the Danish Arctic research institutions.  The Danish Arctic research teams estimated the total surface mass gain at 16 to 20 Gt over this week.  This is the highest I have seen and was caused by an Omega Block over Greenland and a stationary low with an atmospheric river feeding moisture into SE Greenland from the N Atlantic.  Have a look at the Global Weather Album.

Record cold in the East as Canadian air and a coastal storm and deep jet stream trough keep max temperatures in the 50sºF.  The persistent Greenland - Quebec low pulled down cold air.

The US set 17,450 new low temperature records this year vs 13,886 highs.  NOAA’s US All time records summary reveals that 233 new unprecedented, never before observed low temperature benchmarks have been broken vs 1  for all time record highs.  Toronto and NYC broke cold temperature records in late May.

Australia continued to get strong Antarctic cold fronts that have broken cold temperature records in May.  Early June may also break snowfall records.  The Adelaide Hills had heavy frost.  The South Pacific also saw low temperature records fall.   New Zealand, the Andes and Antarctica continue to build the snow pack with major storms dumping 1-3 meters of snow.  Antarctic sea ice is building as temperatures fall to -40’s at Little America and -70’s ºC in the interior.

Slovenia’s Kredarica observatory hit 520 cm this week as heavy rains covered Slovenia when cold fronts swept south across the Alps.  The Kredarica Chapel was all but buried in snow.  Russia had extreme warm and cold temperatures across Siberia:  +/- 20ºC departures from normal.  Kashmir India had rare late snowfall as the SW Monsoon began to push snows into the Himalayan range and heavy rains of 300 to 700 mm.

A massive Stratovolcano erupted in the Congo killing 250 people.   Ash was ejected up to 45,000 ft, well into the stratosphere.

 

 

24 MAY 2021

GREENLAND is still getting significant snows up to 1-5 meters on the SE Coast.  Deep storms (970 mb) are pounding unusually large areas with S+ (heavy snows) for extended periods as the meridional flow is blocked by the classic 300mb omega block seen in winter. Of course on the warm side, we’ll see unusually warm temperatures 30ºC at Elabuga, RU near the Barents Sea - have a look at the Global Weather Album for this week’s examples.

A classic Atlantic storm battered the UK with heavy rains and beautiful satellite image on 20 April as the jet pulled cool unstable air south across central Europe from the N Sea southward into Greece.  This unstable moist air triggered many spring showers and thunderstorms.  Have a look at windy.com ’s satellite images in motion to get a feel for the dynamics of these storms.  It may take a few minutes to load the 12 h time series. Windy integrates satellite images from around the world, whereas NOAA’s GOES system has very high resolution images from GOES EAST and WEST. You can loop these too.  see: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php  
Ljubljana enjoyed a beautiful spring day on 20 May after 3 days of rain and showers.  Kredarica’s snow climbed back to 510 cm burying the chapel and Kanin remained at 389 cm, Vogel fell to 1 m.  Most of SLO had a very wet week; however, when the sun popped thru the temperature reached 20ºC.

The Tibetan Plateau and SW China and eastern Siberia had significant snowfall forecasts of 30 to 87 cm from 21-31 May.

Intense storms (950-970 mb) continue to dump heavy snow around the Antarctic as the temperature/density gradient remains large and the jet stream strong.  Australia and NZ get heavy precipitation and snows in the high elevations of the Snowy Range and NZ Alps.  The US Navy model NAVGEM predicted the 540 m thickness line (rain/snow) would pass over Australia from Perth to Melbourne and S NZ, and as far N as Buenos Aires this week.  On May 24th a strong storm (989 mb) passed south of the Bite pushing Antarctic air across southern Australia behind a strong cold front.

Eastern Half of US skips spring with 90º Temps this week possibly breaking many warm records, while the NW sets new snowfall records in Montana.  The meridional flow with strong short waves continues with warm and cold sectors as usual.  Of note is an atmospheric river from the Yucatan Peninsula to Minnesota - somewhat unusual, we often see the Pacific ARs feeding western North America.  Subtropical cyclone “Ana” was our first named storm of the hurricane season; however, this was more like a weak extratropical cyclone (low) than one warranting a hurricane name. Ana was absorbed in a mid-Atlantic trough the next day.  On May 22nd, Colorado had 10 confirmed tornadoes on the ground in the prairies - no damage reported, but beautiful funnel clouds were recorded.

Steven Koonin discussed his new book Unsettled on Fox News pointing out that he had written about results of existing reports and documents that clearly stated the while humans have contributed to climate change our impacts are small and will not be significant until beyond 2100.  Antropogenic impacts are not worth trillions of dollars in immediate conversion to renewables.  The US cannot have a significant impact until India and China do their share.
Wall Street Journal review of the International Energy Agency report on “hidden environmental costs and infeasibility of going green”: Biden’s Not-So-Clean Energy Transition is enlightening.
The International Energy Agency exposes the hidden environmental costs and infeasibility of going green.
By Mark P. Mills May 11, 2021 12:58 pm ET :

“The International Energy Agency, the world’s pre-eminent source of energy information for governments, has entered the political debate over whether the U.S. should spend trillions of dollars to accelerate the energy transition favored by the Biden administration. You know, the plan to use far more “clean energy” and far less hydrocarbons—the oil, natural gas and coal that today supply 84% of global energy needs. The IEA’s 287-page report released this month, “The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions,” is devastating to those ambitions. A better title would have been: “Clean Energy Transitions: Not Soon, Not Easy and Not Clean.” “

The IEA essentially says that it is unrealistic to expect renewable energy to displace fossil fuels before 2050.  The mining industry would need to gear up its operations globally to provide enough rare earth material to produce the solar, wind, and battery systems required for sustainable energy supplies.  This would be environmentally catastrophic and create a host of new problems.  Have a look at the full report or the WSJ review.

 

 

17 MAY 2021
Shortened growing season in parts of Europe, Asia, N America, Australia and New Zealand is a significant outcome of the Grand Solar Minimum.  We see this in Colorado as our 2020-2021 fall, winter spring snow has the second longest period between first and last snowfalls.  Normally we don’t think twice about October and June snowfalls; however, when they are back to back this becomes significant.  Crops stop growing in the fall and spring planting is delayed, thus reducing productivity.  Another important factor is water - too little and too much.  Droughts and floods - saturated fields don’t help the farmers, hence the need for moderate weather with “normal” conditions not extremes.  

 

Both the GSM and ACW (anthropogenic climate warming) can produce extremes, hence a lose-lose situation.  This is why I’m monitoring the global weather these days.  One solution is controlled climate for our farmers.  If we indeed move into an extreme shortened growing season, then we should invest in large industrial greenhouses with added CO2 to enhance crop growth.  These could effectively use hydroponic irrigation and grow lights to produce crops 7/24 year round.  Our farmers may need to adapt to a new high tech farming system.
 

Snow and cold Records around the world in April and May were broken.  China and India had significant rains (250-350mm) in the SE central region and on the Mumbai Coast NE to the Hindu Kush.  Ethiopia continued its convective rains with 40 to 180 mm.  Slovenia had significant rains and snow in the Alps that brought the Triglav Glacier back to >450 cm depth and Kanin ski area to 390 cm.  The Alps and Pyrenees continued to get significant snows.  The NW passage remained frozen as parts of Greenland, Iceland, and Norway continued to get significant spring snows: 73-377; 16-98; and 26-66 cm respectively.  Scotland decreased to 0-20 cm.
 
The jet streams in both hemispheres continued to bring deep storms with unseasonal extremes of warm and cold due to the meridional flow pattern that tends to equalize - balance the polar and equatorial cold and warm air.  NE North America was under the influence of the eastern Canada/Greenland/Icelandic low that gyrated over the Labrador Sea keeping New England cool.  While in the N Pacific the Aleutian Low pushed shortwaves south into the NW US and kept the Colorado Rockies unsettled with cool unstable air generating thunderstorms and severe weather.  Eastern Colorado received significant beneficial rains that brought the Drought Monitor intensity down to normal and moderate, while the West remained intense at extreme to exceptional levels.

Record cool temperatures extended from Georgia to Maine as the Arctic air dropped into Texas and across the South.
In the Southern Hemisphere deep cyclones (938 to 960 mb ) continued to build the winter snowpack from New Zealand (50-120cm) to the Andes (60-218 cm) and the Antarctic (94-645 cm).  Early snow fell in the Snowy Range in Australia and on Tasmania.  New Zealand skipped fall.  Every day last week had at least one Antarctic station reporting -70ºC or lower coldest -75º.

 

 

 

 

10 MAY 2021


UK Breaks records dating back to the 1600’s Little Ice Age in April and May.  The deep (970 mb) cyclonic storms continued to pull cold air into Europe resulting in many cold records set and broken over the past few weeks. UK RECORDS BEGAN IN 1659.
 

Iceland registered the lowest May temperature of record at -24ºC on May 4, 2021.  Germany also had the coldest April since 1977.

Slovenia’s Julien Alps continued their beautiful deep snow cover with 419 to 450 cm at Kanin and Triglav as the high elevation cold air dumped snow on the high mountains above 2000 m.   Lower elevations had significant rainfall across Slovenia and along the Dolomites.  On 9 May the ECMWF model continued to predict deep snows from 1-2 m in the Alps from the Maritimes in France to the Julien Alps in Slovenia.  (see the weather album for photos of the deep snow pack)

The Caucus Mountains had from 39-70 cm this week while other parts of Russia had 50-100 cm of new snow as Siberia warmed from -30 to -10ºC.  In the east, Kamchatka had 28-135 cm from some deep (985 mb) N Pacific storms.  On the other side of the Gulf of Alaska the snow fall dropped to 36 to 168 cm along the Coastal Mountains from Anchorage to Vancouver.

Colorado will get significant May snowfall during the next 10 days from an Arctic blast according to the GFS model.  It will take us down to 12-16ºC below normal.  This cold blast will move south to the Mexican border and east triggering severe weather along the front from Texas to Virginia. The 2020-2021 winter is now the 2nd longest between 1st snowfall and last on record for Denver. New England remained in the cold air as the NE cyclones continued to pull cold air from Ontario and Quebec.

The Southern Hemisphere continued to have a cold snowy fall in places with the Antarctic plateau temperatures dropping to -60s and 70sºC.  Early snows also accumulated in Australia, NZ, and the Andes as major storms circulate around the Antarctic in the Southern Ocean.  See the weather albums for observations and model predictions.

Steven Koonin’s 2021 book titled “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells us, What it Doesn’t, and Why it Matters” was discussed in an interview on CNBC on 4 May 2021.  Koonin cautioned us to be judicious in our efforts to mitigate anthropogenic climate alarmism with trillion dollar immediate “solutions” that are unproven to have an impact on climate.  He made the point that “climate science” and IPCC solutions have been highly politicized and an honest review of the physics of climate change is needed before we rush into eliminating proven energy sources like fossil fuels.  He said that the US will have little impact on CO2 unless China, India and Russia are fully committed to eliminating their CO2 emissions, which they are not.  Koonin was the chief science advisor to President Obama and has served on numerous advisory bodies for the NSF, DoD, DoE, and various DoE Labs.  He chaired the JASON independent group of elite scientists that advises the US Gov on matters of science and technology, mostly of a sensitive nature.  Interestingly Amazon and Facebook have banned this book and references to it - cancel culture in America!!

3 MAY 2021

 

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AI now predicts the sun spot cycles and our GSM out to 2050.  GSM’s impact on our solar system’s magnetosphere and Earth’s cosmic ray flux and geomagnetic field is increasing clouds and volcanoes which are changing the jet stream patterns and our record weather.

 

Steven Koonin’s 2021 book titled “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells us, What it Doesn’t, and Why it Matters” was discussed in an interview on CNBC on 4 May 2021.  Koonin cautioned us to be judicious in our efforts to mitigate anthropogenic climate alarmism with trillion dollar immediate “solutions” that are unproven to have an impact on climate.  He made the point that “climate science” and IPCC solutions have been highly politicized and an honest review of the physics of climate change is needed before we rush into eliminating proven energy sources like fossil fuels.  He said that the US will have little impact on CO2 unless China, India and Russia are fully committed to eliminating their CO2 emissions, which they are not.  Koonin was the chief science advisor to President Obama and has served on numerous advisory bodies for the NSF, DoD, DoE, and various DoE Labs.  He chaired the JASON independent group of elite scientists that advises the US Gov on matters of science and technology, mostly of a sensitive nature.

 

European agriculture ministers declare they have an agriculture catastrophe - the worst on record. Global wine prices will rise along with other foods.  More cold is coming in early May.

 

Slovenia had heavy spring precipitation that brought the alpine snow pack back to 390 cm at Kredarica and 423 cm at Kanin after a few beautiful sunny spring days with 15 to 20ºC in Ljubljana.

 

UK continued in the crosshairs of major Atlantic storms that have brought heavy precipitation and snows to the highlands - up to 56 cm in Scotland and 16 cm in the Midlands  even 2-4 cm in Ireland.  

 

The High Atlas had 2-10 cm of snow in Morocco as NW Africa saw 15 to 50 mm of precipitation and Ethiopia had 30 to 187 mm in its highlands on the White Nile.  Ethiopia’s new China (BRI) built dam and huge reservoir on the Nile is filling.

 

St Vincent volcano plume reached Africa and Turkey this week.  Over 50 active volcanoes are contributing to the stratospheric dust now.

 

Eastern US continues to be cold as historic snow and freeze events hit vineyards in Missouri and Ohio. There were two nights of record - breaking freezing weather.  Severe storms from Mississippi to SC brought tornadoes and hail damage.

 

Colorado enjoyed mild 80º F temperatures in the east while mountain sites were in the 60s.  We also had a bit of snow as a cold front dropped south into a broad upper level trough.  The latest series of storms has brought up eastern Colorado's precipitation to normal and much above normal wiping out the drought; however, the Western Slope remains dry and in extreme drought in many places.

 

The Southern Hemisphere continued to march into an early winter as snows fell in Lesotho, Australia and Tasmania and the Andes built its snowpack through 1-2 meter storms.  The Antarctic continued to have -60 to -70ºC temperature in the interior at Amundson-Scott and Vostok stations.  Deep cyclonic storms pounded the coast locally dumping 50 to 200 cm of snow.

 

 

26 APRIL 2021

SPRING’s natural variability continues to impact the Northern and Southern Hemispheres as a pronounced meridional (N-S) flow continues weakening in the N Hemisphere and strengthening in the S Hemisphere as the sun marches northward.  Most notable are the strong extratropical cyclones (lows) with a polar vortex like intensity in SE Canada and New England, Gulf of Alaska, Siberia, and in the Southern Ocean south of Australia and Chile.  The UK seems to be in the storm track with major storms striking it and a large high pressure providing relief this week.  This mild High brought temperatures back up to 17-23ºC in LJU this week; however, Triglav and Kanin still have 3.33 and 4.19 m of snow on the ground respectively.

On 22 April the sun had a minor-moderate Corona Mass Ejection CME pointed toward Earth which should arrive on 25 April with strong Auroras from Maine to Washington, and potential electronic and radio disruptions.

Scientists are using AI to predict the sunspot cycles and are now saying the GSM could last to 2050.

The GFS model now predicts cold snowy weather from 21 April to 6 May 2021 with maximum snowfalls in the Rockies and New England; however, it has snow down to Arizona and NM, then Tennessee to Maine.  The N Hemisphere snow mass climbed to a record 3,300 Gigatons in March and is now at 2,400 GT about 700 GT above normal.  The latest European model has 20-50 cm predicted for Colorado over the next 10 days with a couple strong short waves impacting us.

Snow continued to build in the Andes (117-252 cm), Antarctic (112-194 cm), and New Zealand (14-39 cm).  In contrast, N America slowed to 71 to 139 cm in the ECMWF 10-DAY forecasts.

 

19 APRIL 2021

 

The GSM’s impacts were on display around the world this week as a cold spring took hold. France declared an Agricultural Disaster; Hungary, Switzerland, Slovenia (-20ºC), UK (-9.4ºC), Croatia, have record snow and cold (-6ºC) records broken some dating back to the 1600s.  

 

New England remains cold and snowy in April as Nor’Easter storms pull down cold Canadian air.  Colorado gets several snow storms in its 2nd snowiest month.  We’ll see how this impacts the long-term drought. The next 10-day forecast looks like a typical spring with a series of short waves passing across Colorado with 10-30 cm of snow.  Arctic cold fronts move south across the High Plains into Texas and Mexico creating short waves that may evolve into areas of severe weather and heavy rains.

 

Greenland continues to build its surface mass balance with major storms dumping 1-2 meters over relatively large areas increasing the surface mass by 3-6 GT per day significantly above the average; however, within the range of natural variability according to the Danish Arctic research institutions.

 

China, N. Korea and Japan continue to be cold and snowy with some rivers frozen in China. Food prices in China are climbing as the GSM takes its toll.

 

Spring snows continue to hit Hawaii on 12 April 2021 - a relatively rare event.

 

Early-season snow blasts Australia (22 cm on Mt Buller) with significant snows (10-50 cm) starting in New Zealand’s Alps, as the Andes start picking up 1-3 meters of new snow.  Damage in Australia due to short growing season may be significant as the Antarctic blasts continue and intensify.  The southern Hemisphere Jet strengthens as winter approaches, while the northern Jet devolves into a weaker, more chaotic spring pattern.  Antarctic temperatures continue to fall as the sun moves northward and the dark cold winter approaches.  More stations are reporting -60 to -70ºC in the interior while McMurdo falls to -34ºC.  Deep cyclonic storms (950 to 934 mb) continue to circle the Antarctic dumping heavy snow (117 to 391 cm).

 

Over 50 volcanoes have erupted over the past months with St Vincent’s Soufriere explosive pulse sending ash up to 44,000 ft spreading across the subtropical Atlantic.  These volcanoes are cooling the atmosphere over large areas.  They are typical of the Grand Solar Minimums.

 

SUPER TYPHOON Surigan passes east of the Philippians and north east of the Asian coast.  The extratropical transition of this storm promises to be a significant factor in the N Pacific later this week and next.

 

Have a look at the Global Weather Album to see the details and photos from impacted areas.

 

12 April 2021

 

European Arctic Blast COOLS the region from Scotland to Greece.  Slovenia had wide-spread snow and temperatures on the Sunny Side of the Alps dropped to -10ºC at low elevations damaging crops - vineyards, fruit trees… Have a look at the weather album to see this classic powerful storm.  SLOVENIA broke warm and cold records this week +25ºC and -20ºC at low elevations.  The cold record was much more damaging killing vines, orchards, and other crops.  France and Croatia felt the Freeze and their vineyards and orchards suffered.  Croatia has its first April Snowfall.  Dinara mountains had -24ºC one of the coldest ever in Dalmatia at this time of the year.  Belgrade sets new record snowfall for April of 10 cm.

 

Scotland and the UK midlands continued to remain cold and snowy into April. Aberdeen, the Scottish Glens, and parts of Northern England registered the coldest April temperatures ever recorded.  Scotland suffered one period of the the longest cold snowy weather of this century.,

 

NW Africa from Morocco to Tunisia had spotty snowfall in higher elevations, beneficial rains continued into April.  

 


The early cold blasts from the Antarctic (-60 to -70ºC common this week) hit Australia and Tasmania where Victoria and Tasmania had cold and snow 7 to 24 cm respectively and New Zealand’s Alps started collecting snowfalls of 17-68 cm.  A deep 962 mb extratropical cyclone sat south of the Bite pushing a second wave of Antarctic air into Australia and 14 m high waves from 240º with a period of 15s.  The Bureau of Meteorology said that Victoria can say goodby to the mild 20ºC temperatures until next spring.   New Zealand continued its heavy precipitation (100-400mm) on the west coast of the south island with snows in the Southern Alps.  The southern Andes began to build a serious snow pack with 1-3 m.

 

St. Vincent in the Caribbean has major volcanic eruption 9-11 April.  This spring has had several major eruptions which carried dust and ash high into the stratosphere, thus cooling our atmosphere.

 

Canada continues to get significant snows along the Pacific coastal ranges and Whitehorse, Yukon’s snowpack reached 300% of normal - the deepest snow this late in the year since 1955 when record keeping started.  Even Anchorage, Alaska set its 9th longest string of days (161) with minimum temperatures <= 0ºC.

 

Colorado is set for a cold wet week as the jet stream will bring two short wave storms and an upper level trough stalls over the SW.  This should further boost our snow pack and help mitigate the drought.  Total  precipitation could reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches by the end of this storm.  Klaus Wolter noted that Fairbanks and interior parts of Alaska had record cold(+3ºF)  on 9 April which is headed our way with this storm system. The models show strong upslope conditions that can produce 1-2 feet in the higher foothills.  ECMWF gives us 18-27 cm over the next 5 days, while GFS has 35-40 cm and NAM 1-2 cm. Germany’s ICON model 35-40 cm in Summit County.  We’ll see.

 

The La Nina continues in the Pacific.  New England continues to get snow at the higher elevations and a cool spring, while the South endures severe weather with strong thunderstorms producing tornadoes and hail, typical of springtime weather there.

 

Proponents of the GSM are claiming that we have officially started our Grand Solar Minimum in GSM cycle 25 which could last another 10 years.  We shall see.  Some canals in the Netherlands were open for skating this winter, a rare event over the past 25 years.  My father could skate every year in the early 1900’s.

 

Have a safe, healthy, cool wet week.

 

5 APRIL 2021

 

On Easter 4 Apr 2021,  an intense 965 mb polar vortex moved north of Norway into the N Atlantic pulling polar air south along the East Coast of Greenland, where an equally intense 1060 mb (ECMWF) High(1080-NOAA; 1071mb Canada) with -43ºC temperatures fed the cold air.  The 965 mb extratropical cyclone covered the region from Greenland to the Kara Sea N of the Ob River in central Russia.  The GSM model is predicting cold snowy conditions across Europe over the next 10 days.  Ljubljana, SLO has a snow forecast for tomorrow followed by cold weather after a warm sunny 23ºC last week.  Snow depth at Kredarica dropped to 330 cm and at Kanin 420 cm under a total COVID lock down - no skiing. Romania had 3 m of snow during the past 7 days at its mountain resorts.

 

North America enjoyed beautiful spring weather with warm temperature records from the Rockies to the High Plains.  Cascades snow depth is 109-167% of normal as the total snow mass for the N hemisphere leaps 500 gigaton above the 1982-2012 average.  In late March NOAA noted that we have had twice as many new low temperature records set across the US than it has record highs.  April will continue to have a variety of spring weather with warm and cold extremes.  Denver broke its max temperature records last weekend.  Beware of the cold killing frosts for planting.

 

In contrast the Antarctic continued to have strong cyclonic storms dumping heavy snow along the coast.  A  950 mb storm on Easter dumped 3 cm /hr heavy snow on the area of the Thwaites Glacier.  This week that area had 10-day forecasts of 107 to 282 cm. The Weddell Sea and Ross Sea ice is closing the gap to the Southern Ocean.  Ice was much more abundant than in previous summers.  On 19 March Vostok registered its first -70ºC reading of the year.

 

 New Zealand is beginning to pick up new snow in the Southern Alps (10-78 cm) and Tasmania had 15 cm.  Australia and New Zealand have continued to get locally heavy rains: 115 to 355 mm and 100 to 245 mm  respectively.

 

Spring always brings a variety of weather and severe storms and floods in many areas, enjoy the variety.

 

 


29 MARCH 2021

Major storms continue globally as the jet streams remain intense in response to the pole to equator density gradient (thermal differences) that drives the jets in both hemispheres.  Colorado’s snowstorms moved east along the jet as a strong Gulf moisture flux mixed with the intense jet wind shear and spawned severe weather along the cold/stationary front in the southern US.  Denver now has the 2nd snowiest month on record at 32.5 inches and Colorado’s snowpack water supply climbed to 93% of average up from extreme drought.

SE US has near record flooding as Tennessee’s rivers crest near historic levels in Nashville.  March has been a very wet month under the La Nina.  

Record snows have accumulated in many places around the world during the past 2 months including Turkey, Middle-East, India… I have been watching the Middle East, where significant snows were predicted (25-75 cm).  The Caucus Mountains had 50 to 118 cm, while to the east the Hindu Kush were 144-202 cm as the subtropical jet streamed across the region.  Korea received more snow than Japan this week.  

This week a major “polar vortex”  950 mb low sat off the SW coast of Greenland pulling cold air into the NE US and across the Atlantic into the UK and western Europe, where unusual March snows fell.  Western Europe got a reprieve as the Icelandic Low moved N and permited a SW flow to warm the region at the end of the week; however, the GSM model quickly changes this back to a cold snowy Early April.  The blocking Omega high over Greenland was replaced by the deep NE low and storms have begun to travel quickly to the east in a more normal fashion, thus providing typical extratropical cyclone weather - highs and lows bringing warm and cold periods in their warm and cold sectors.   Nature always seeks a balance - basic conservation of mass and energy.

COLORADO will have a classic spring storm pass to the north of us as a deep Saskatchewan  low (976 mb)  drops quickly down to the Canadian border and moves east drawing warm air northward in the warm sector (78ºF 26ºC) then pushing cold air (22ºF -6ºC) behind the cold front tonight in Denver.  Unfortunately this storm is moving fast and will not yield much precipitation.

Our friends in Ljubljana reported that some flowers are out in spite of the sub-freezing minimums.  Kredarica remains at 340 cm and Kanin at 438; however, lower elevations are melting fast on the “sunny side of the Alps”.

Southern Hemisphere storms continued to march around Antarctica with one deep 936 mb low north of the Thwaites Glacier and the Peninsula, where 206 to 315 cm were predicted over the next 10 days.  The Wilks Plateau 2000-3000 msl had many reports of -50 to -65ºC this week.  Winter is coming.  Australia remained in a relatively cool wet mode with several heavy local thunderstorms dumping from 283 to 70 mm from the subtropical N to Sydney.  

NOTE: the global temperature anomaly from 1 Jan to 23 March 2021 was +0.09ºC see album for map and source

See the Global Weather Album for storm details:

Global Weather Album:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8

 

22 March 2021

 

Northern Hemisphere jet  continues strongly meridional with a large omega block over the N Atlantic extending the Azores High past Scotland pulling cold unstable Arctic air south over central and eastern Europe into the Mediterranean.  N Africa sees snow on the high ridges from Morocco  and Algeria to Tunisia.  Slovenia has had several minimum temperatures from -1 to -7ºC curtailing the planting season for now. Kredarica and Kanin remain under deep snowpack with 370 to 440 cm.

 

The Strong atmospheric river is providing deep snows (122-323 cm) along the Coastal Range from Anchorage to Vancouver.  

 

March is typically our wettest month and 2021 appears to be holding true in spite of the “Mega Drought”.  It looks like we may lessen the extreme drought areas and approach or exceed normal in some spots.  The jet stream has slowed its eastward propagation thanks to a strong omega block in the N Atlantic and we are mainly in a trough with short waves dumping snow.  Every flake counts these days.  The long range Climate Prediction Center forecast calls for warm dry conditions this spring.  Be prepared for wild fires once the snow melts.

 

Southern Hemisphere also continues to have active storms around the Antarctic and in Australia-NewZealand area.  The Antarctic continues to cool to -50 and -60ºC over large areas, while the deep 960 to 946 mb storms dump 80 to 300 cm of snow on the coastal mountains where the temperature ranges from -2 to -25ºC.  S. Georgia Island is beginning to build a significant snow pack with snow storms from 80 to 143 cm predicted.  Australia has had many strong thunderstorms that produced from 100 to 500 mm and now some areas have saturated ground and flooding.

 

We have an active volcano season that is injecting ash into the stratosphere in many regions of both hemispheres.  Iceland has an active volcano spilling lava and SO2 near Reykjavik.

 

For those interested in an article with many climate and COVID fact checks, you may find this link very enlightening:
https://electroverse.net/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset/

 

 

14 March 2021

Polar bears are thriving with climate change: 26,000 in 2015, 30,000 in 2020 in spite of sea ice being the lowest since 1979.  Record plankton growth in 2020.

China is calling the wind and solar renewables the “unreliable”, hence China is investing more in coal power - so much for the IPCC climate accord.  They are also building the world’s largest hydrogen plant.

AUSTRALIA continues to remain cool with wide spread rains (118-224 mm) as Antarctic air streams northward.  windy.com's satellite images clearly show the cold air flowing into the Bite behind cold fronts as Australia has one of it’s coolest summers on record.

The Antarctic continues to cool as the sun moves northward and the long polar night sets in.  Temperatures have dropped to -50 to -65ºC creating a strong pressure gradient that drives the storms around the continent and dump locally heavy snows of 1-3 m this week.  The Antarctic Sea Ice melted less than usual this summer and is now rapidly refreezing.  McMurdo had a -30º this week. The Andes have not yet regained their deep snowfalls; however, South Georgia Island did have several days with forecast snow over 1 m this week.

Europe and N Africa cool as the jet stream dips south across the Mediterranean and high elevations along the coast get a touch of snow and Morocco’s High Atlas get another 20 to 60 cm.  Slovenia had a wide spread snowfall and below freezing temperatures. Kredarica and Kanin keep their 380 and 442 cm snow depths.  EUROPE is set for a historic spring snowfall beginning 12 March.

GFS US MODEL predicts major snowfall across Europe next 10 days. We’ll see.

Japan and Korea have significant snows (50 to 200 cm) as Siberian Arctic air keeps them cold.

North America has record cold in February setting or equaling over 9000 cold records vs 1500 warm records.  Texas set record cold and snowfall all time records dating back to the 1800’s.  March may bring another Arctic blast there.

MAJOR SNOWSTORM hits Denver and Front Range dumping 27.1 inches at DIA 4th largest storm on record since 1882.  Conifer had 3 feet.  The ECMWF model did the best on this storm’s track and total snowfall predictions see album.  This warm, deep, classic cutoff low slowly moved in from California and across the 4-corners into SE Colo-KAN.  It was dubbed an epic historic storm by the local forecasters.  I’d call it a major March storm.  It was what Colorado needed to help alleviate our extreme drought and restore soil moisture.  Aspen even had over 20 inches, we  in Summit had 4-13 inches, but I also measured 0.41 inches of water equivalent - much needed. Buckhorn Mtn had the highest official snowfall in Colorado with 42” then Windy Peak WYO with 52” .

The EAST felt the cold Arctic air as the deep polar vortex (965 mb) low over SW Greenland pulled an Arctic High (1038 mb) down over Hudson Bay blocking our Colorado snow storm thus slowing its eastward movement.

NOAA : 9368 NEW LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS VS 1429 WARM RECORDS SET IN FEBRUARY 2021.

Iceland reported 34,000 quakes in 2 weeks suggesting major volcanic eruptions are coming soon.

See the Global Weather Album for storm details:

Global Weather Album:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8

 

7 MARCH 2021

DEEP LARGE POLAR VORTEX sat over SE Canada this week pulling Arctic air into the Eastern US and spinning up a Nor’Easter off New England that dumped 28 inches in Maine.  This was a very impressive deep extra-tropical cyclone (974 mb) that extended from Michigan to Greenland.  The Maritime Provinces were hit hard by this extreme storm which also cooled the NE US.

ARCTIC SEA ICE continues to build and remains solid across Siberia and the NW passage on the N of Canada.  Ice thickness ranges from 1 to 4 m from the Ob River to Bering straight.  The Kara Sea has thin ice of 0.5 to 1 meter, while North of Canada it is 2 to 4 m thick.  The Alaska coast ranges from 1-2 m thick.  A cold pulse of water in the North Atlantic drift (N end of the Gulf Stream) is moving north.  This may have a major impact on European winters of the Beaufort Gyre is modified.  

As we discussed in my July RCSC talk the primary controls of our Earth’s energy balance are the sun and seas.  Sea currents like the Gulf Stream and deep return currents control the Earth’s thermostat. These have cycle times on the order of 100 to 1000 years, hence their natural balance.  The Beaufort Gyre which I discussed earlier continues to be a major factor in deep sea transport of energy.

The jet stream in both hemispheres remains strong bringing deep lows to the N Pacific and Atlantic and around the Antarctic,where the polar temperature reached -60ºC this week.  New Zealand had 0-85 cm this week and the rain forest was up to 232 mm.

Slovenia enjoyed a mild week with a mid-week rain event that kept Kredarica at 370 cm and Kanin at 442 cm snow depth.  Temperatures ranged from -7 to 20ºC in LJU.  

The UK has had a cool week with 18 to 58 cm of snow in Scotland and 5 to 29 cm in other parts of England and Ireland.

Colorado is preparing for a major winter storm as the jet stream digs south and a cut-off low will develop over the SW.  Exactly how much snow and where depends on the exact track and speed of this storm.  The ECMWF
model has 30 to 80 cm predicted for the front range from Pikes Peak to Casper.  NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center forecasters have 2 to 3 inches of water equivalent over the next 7 days.  West of the Divide they have .75 to 1.25 inches.  Have a look at the global weather album for details. The WPC provides an human integrated prediction based on the models and forecaster’s experience.

Global Weather Album:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8

 

 

1 MARCH 2021

 

EXTREME cold and warming from Texas to Western Europe as the meridional jet pattern travels east around the N Hemisphere.  Parts of Europe had a 40ºC swing of temperatures from very cold to warm.  

 

The GSM’s meridional jet stream continues to propagate around the N Hemisphere bringing very cold air from the Arctic southward in the NE US to Europe and Asia.  Even parts of N Africa and the Middle East are having cold and snow late in February. Russia’s Snowpocalypse has set many cold records.  The extreme cold -30 to -45ºC continues along the Arctic Ocean where ice is solid with 1-2 meters thick along the Siberian coast.  The NW passage across N Canada still has a 3-4 meter thick block at the NE shore of Ellisworth Island keeping that solidly closed today according to the Danish Arctic Research Institute which reports each day.  The total Ice Volume continues to increase.  Siberia has one of its coldest winters on record as many stations continue to report less than -40ºC in late February.

 

Slovenia enjoyed a beautiful week with blue skies and relatively warm (20ºC)  daytime temperatures.  Minimums fell below freezing in the clear dry nights. Kredarica’s snow depth continued to fall (365 cm) as high winds blew the snow and temperatures reached 2-6ºC up from -19ºC.  Kanin ski are remained at 443 cm.

 

Deep Polar Vortex like storms continue in the N Pacific and N Atlantic pulling cold air south into traveling storms that push the Atmospheric River AR into the N American Coast Range and into Northern Europe.    Alaska had 190-237 cm while BC had 214 to 330 cm on the Coast Range.  Greenland, Iceland and Norway had significant snow forecasts from 180-300, 17-208, and 145-245 cm respectively.

 

Another cold blast is predicted for Europe next week which will seriously impact the spring growing season.  

 

Iceland is having a swarm of earth quakes that may lead to volcanoes getting ready to erupt which often happens when the GSM’s cosmic rays penetrate the silica-rich magma.  Mt Vesuvius had a spectacular eruption this week.

 

North American and N Hemisphere snow extent is above the 1982-2012 average by 700 Gigatons as the Arctic Sea Ice is experiencing exponential gains before the melt season arrives.  

 

The southern Hemisphere jet stream is intensifying as the polar temperature gradient intensifies due to extreme cold setting in on the Antarctic Plateau reaching -40 to -55ºC this week.  New Zealand’s S Island Alps begin to accumulate snow up to 40-70 cm and the rain forests get 100-250 mm of rain.  Australia continues to get significant local rains from 100 to 775 mm and temperatures in the south remain below normal.

 

Colorado and the West are enjoying a large Pacific High (1040 mb) bringing clear skies and cold nights we are still on the cold side of the jet.  A couple short waves will pass thru in the next 10-days providing a little snow 2-30 cm total.

 

Have a look at the Global Weather Album for more detailed charts, satellite images, and model forecasts.

 

https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8 

 

 

22 FEB 2021

MAJOR CRISIS IN TEXAS due to extreme cold and snow 6-day event.  Electrical power frozen - wind turbines provided 23% of Tx power. They froze leading to power blackouts. Many natural gas turbines were off-line due to over reliance on renewable energy.  Gas and water lines froze, Texas emergency managers did not anticipate prolonged extreme cold events over the entire state.  We need to plan for these events in the GSM.

Note: the numerical forecast models provided 3-5 day lead time on this extreme event; however, the MSM failed to highlight the need for preparations like they normally do for extreme hurricane events.  Under the GSM these cold extreme events will occur more often.  The January SSW Sudden Stratospheric Warming event set up conditions for the Polar Vortex that led to this extreme storm.    However, this year we have had several deep “polar vortices” that hit the N Pacific, N Atlantic, and central Siberia resulting in extreme weather.   We all should be prepared.

Over 3000 cold temperature records were broken in this historic Arctic Blast that impacted over 100 million Americans from Texas to New England.  You can see details on my weather album site.  This was an extreme  example of the impacts of a prolonged meridional flow of the jet stream which brought a very large pool of Arctic air  (1066 mb high pressure dome) south through the central North American continent.  Unfortunately, Texas was severely impacted for 5 days of sub freezing and sub Zero (ºF) in many places.  The cold air spread across the South producing locally heavy snow and ice storms resulting in billions of dollars in damage to power lines, power generation stations, water distribution systems, agriculture, homes - frozen pipes, transportation  systems - highways were shut down by multi-car and truck pile-ups, etc.  Total damage estimated at > $50 Billion.

Extreme cold and snow hit large parts of Europe from Portugal to Russia curtailing travel from France and Germany to Moscow. Norway, Sweden, Finland and NW Russia had -20 to -30ºC temperatures. Temperatures in eastern Siberia fell below -40 in many areas as Arctic air was drawn into the deep Aleutian Low (950 mb) and across the N Pacific dumping 1-2 m of snow in Japan and Kamchatka.  The west coast of N America again was under the atmospheric river from Anchorage to Vancouver with 1-3 m of new snow in the coast ranges.  Morocco’s High Atlas mountains even had more snow  (50-70 cm) than the Swiss Alps (5-20cm) this past week.

Slovenia enjoyed some clear dry days as the snow depth at Triglav dropped to 385 cm from its high of 510 cm.  Ljubljana had a minimum of -11º  on a clear night - a bit colder than normal.

Snow and cold hit many places along the Mediterranean from Lybia to Greece and the Middle East.  The Golan Heights had forecasts up to 50 cm.  Turkey, Iran, Georgia, and the Hindu Kusch ( 1-2 m) had significant snowfall.

The southern hemisphere still has a powerful circumpolar jet with several deep 960 to 940 mb storms rapidly moving around the Antarctic in the Southern Ocean.  Temperatures there have begun to fall as the interior is back down to -40 to -50ºC creating a strong temperature gradient that provides energy to the storms that are dumping 50 to 200+ cm of new snow along the coastal mountains.

Australia continues to have many areas with beneficial rains (100 to 500 mm) and cool temperatures (4 to 10º min T).  New Zealand has had a couple snow events in the Alps, but the rain forests on the west coast of the S Island are the winners with 100 to 350 mm of rain.

A large plume of dust blew from West Africa across the tropical Atlantic to South America this week indicating strong NE trade winds balancing the very cold NW flow off of N America.

Fortunately, the meridional flow has eased to a more zonal flow this week allowing a return to more normal temperatures across the South with a few short waves bringing pulses of snow from the NW to NE US.  Next week may bring a couple fast moving meridional waves with some cold and snow for us.

 

15 FEB 2021

 

EXTREME COLD Arctic Blast hits International Falls, MN to Brownsville Texas and points east.  Records fall across the Eastern 2/3 of the US.  The Weather Channel calls this a “Historical Winter Invasion” I haven’t yet heard mention of the GSM.

 

On Jan 25th, I noted the Sudden Stratospheric Warming - SSW caused by a large influx of deep space cosmic rays penetrating our upper atmosphere because we are in a Grand Solar Minimum-GSM with a weakened magnetosphere that normally protects us.  The  SSW led to a deep strong polar vortex and strong meridional jet stream which is bringing Arctic air south.  The US, Europe and Asia are experiencing record cold and snow. Fortunately Summit County is on the warm side of the Continental Divide.  Two major extratropical cyclones (lows) dominate the N Pacific (944 mb)  and N Atlantic (968 mb) with two smaller ones in the heart of N America and Siberia. Our cold dome of Arctic air reached 1066 mb and temperatures to -48ºC. You can see many examples of these in my weather album with weather maps showing sub zero (ºF) temperatures in Tx and OKL.  

 

Slovenia continued to get snow in the Alps with Kredarica reaching 495 cm and falling back to 440 cm with snow now covering the entrance roof to the Chapel.  The past two days were crystal clear with 22% relative humidity and low temps in LJU of -5 to -7ºC (-20ºC) at Kredarica)

 

The jet stream will continue to deliver major storms over the next 10 days as our record winter continues.…

 

In the Southern Hemisphere Australia continues to get locally heavy rains and the Antarctic has heavy snows (>4m) fed by large deep southern Ocean storms 960 to 933 mb center pressures. Temperatures in the interior have fallen to -50ºC.  Some birds in SW Australia died due to the unusual cold.

8 Feb 2021

The Active meridional jet stream continues to bring extremely cold weather to much of the Northern Hemisphere.  An unusually large dense cold 1060 mb high pressure has moved from the Arctic Ocean North of Siberia and Alaska to the area N of the Yukon.  This cold air is moving south, east of the Rockies into central Canada and the US.  In Colorado we are fortunate to be on the west side of this cold air and will miss the extreme cold to the East.  Summit County will be above most of the cold air and in the Pacific air mass.  

The ECMWF model gives us 20 to 50 cm of snow over the next 10 days as a couple short waves pass thru the Jet stream and the stationary front along the Continental Divide blocks the Arctic air.  However a strong pressure gradient and gravity waves from the Jet will give us high winds.

Maui had snow on Haleakala Summit, a relatively rare event; however, the snow line reached 6200 ft msl, a record low elevation (summit is 10,023 ft msl) .

During the next few weeks historic Arctic blasts will hit North America, Europe and Asia. This should prove to be a very interesting test of the GSM’s impact; however, the real test will be its effect on crop production this spring and summer.  The UK has been cold and snowy with 13 to 53 cm in the ECMWF forecasts.  The Caucasus Mountains had 1-2 m for the first time this winter while Kamchatka was back up to 2-3 m from Arctic blasts from Siberia and Aleutian Low on-shore flows.

Slovenia had a wet cloudy cool week with mountain snows bringing Kredarica back up to 470 cm from 385 cm - high winds 67 to 117 km/hr blew the snow from the top of he chapel; however, today they had 111cm of new snow.  Kanin was at 440 cm while Vogel ski area had 235 cm on the ground.  Next week may be SLO’s first true Arctic blast as the Greenland High sends very cold air south.  Scandinavia has been very cold at -20 to -30ºC this past week.  Eastern Siberia reached -50 to -53ºC.

The Southern Hemisphere has been relatively cool with areas of Australia 8 to16ºC below normal.  Australia continues to get beneficial rains from Darwin to Melbourne.  New Zealand has resumed snowfall (13 to 52 cm) in the South Island’s Alps; however, its rainforest had 43 to 310 mm.

Antarctica is turning cold again as the sun moves north and days are shorter Vostok Station and the high elevations of Wilks Land have fallen below -40ºC this past week.  Deep 950 to 936 mb storms have been dumping heavy snows along the coast from 222 to 400 cm while the maximum in the southern Andes were down to 24 to 82 cm this past week.

 

1 Feb 2021

 

Model Forecasts verified well from California to New England.  California had heavy Sierra snows ~  3 meters and low elevations R+ with debris flows - mudslides creating havoc.  Midwest to Chicago had a significant snowstorm that triggered a Cape Hatteras Low and subsequent Nor-easter to Maine.  This storm will pull down bone chilling Canadian air from Quebec and Ontario as it exits Maine later this week.

 

The jet-stream has entered a meridional pattern from the central Pacific to Europe with traveling waves that will produce significant storms in the Northern Hemisphere.  The current model runs have these moving relatively quickly from West to East and developing strong surface to 700mb level closed lows with their typical warm and cold sectors and heavy precipitation.  A large Arctic high (1056 mb) over the Arctic Ocean north of Alaska and Eastern Siberia will feed cold air into the N American storms.  Greenland’s cold high will continue to provide cold air to western and central Europe and N Africa.

 

Two interesting cold records were set in Bermuda (49.1ºF 9.5ºC) and Guam (69ºF 20.1ºC) this past week.

 

Colorado continues to enjoy relatively warm and dry conditions; however, we will get a cold moist NW flow Thursday to Sunday as a strong short wave passes thru with 20-35 cm of snow over the next 10 days.  

 

Greenland’s SE coast has a 10-day forecast of 150 to 226 cm up from last week’s 67 to 193 cm.  Norway and Iceland dropped off to 26-105 cm while the UK continued to get wide spread snows from 10 to 105 cm in the cold northerly flow.

 

Large areas of Siberia had -40 to -50ºC which continued to cool Japan and Kamchatka producing 123-169 cm and 106 to 271 cm respectively.

 

Australia also continued to have wide-spread rains of 30 to 600+ mm as tropical monsoon rains hit the north and Antarctic fronts passed across the south - central areas.

 

Snows in the Andes were confined to the southern tip by Ushuaia, while the Antarctic still had areas of significant snow from 108 to 222 cm, where deep 970 to 950 mb lows pushed moist air inland from the Southern Ocean. Interior Antarctic temperatures remained from -26 to -47ºC while McMurdo Station was -3 to -10ºC and the Tip of the Antarctic Peninsula was -1 to 4ºC,

 

25 Jan 2021

SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING (SSW) by a cosmic ray influx is creating a strong polar vortex according to NOAA’s high altitude scientists.  Their models indicate development of the meridional jet stream pattern in February that will push more extreme cold south from the polar regions.  This is characteristic of the Grand Solar Minimum.  The meridional flow is a wavy polar toward equator flow that produces extreme weather - cold and hot.  These waves in the jet usually travel eastward around the earth; however, blocking high pressure ridges may stop their movement and they become stationary standing waves that continue to reinforce the N to S and S to N transport of energy, thus breaking temperature records.

This winter so far we have seen many large slow moving storms that have broken many records.  The Polar Vortex may prove even more severe in February and March.  We’ll see!  This is not Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW).
 
Extreme Cold persists in Siberia -73ºF (-58ºC).  All of Transcontinental Russia has been engulfed by an Arctic air mass since early December, 2020 setting many records.  Looks like the stratospheric polar vortex will reinforce this pattern into February with strong meridional Arctic air injections southward.

Portugal continues to suffer from cold and record breaking electricity consumption as another “Beast from the East” is building.

London and the UK had a very cold snowy week with 10 cm in London and over 70 cm in Scotland.  Central UK had -15ºC coldest since 1997.
Slovenia’s Alps above 1000 m continue to build snow pack with Kredarica reaching 510 cm (16.7 ft) - about twice normal for this date - during this cold wet week.


Over 100 people died so far while clearing snow in Japan during 2021’s record snows.

New Zealand had rare January snows at the Remarkables ski area (10 cm) and other high elevation areas. Australia continued to have significant rains over large areas with local convective storms in the north from 300 to 1100 mm.

Maunakea and Mauna Loa had 1-2 inches of snow on their summits as a deep pool of cold air is pushed south from an intense Pacific storm.

California’s Sierra Nevada will get heavy snow this week with up to 328 cm in the ECMWF model forecast and NOAA’s prediction of 4-15 inches of water equivalent over 7 days.  SW US will finally get beneficial snows as a series of short waves (storms) pass through the long wave trough (in a meridional flow).  SW Colorado will have 20-60 cm, but Central and Northern Mountains much less (1-10 cm).  We’ll see how the meridional flow impacts us next month.

Sea Surface Temperatures cooled with normal to -2ºC prevailing with only two small warm 2-3ºC anomaly hot spots - quite different from last summer.  La Nina continues in central Pacific.

18 Jan 2021

 

A very active jet stream continues to bring record cold to many parts of the Northern Hemisphere most notably in Spain and Japan, where folks were skiing in the streets of Madrid (> 30 cm)  and Japan was in a state of emergency with over 2 meters of snow.  Temperatures set all time record minimums: -24ºC (-11ºF). Snow in the Niigata Prefecture hit 3.13 m (10.3 ft). At least 10 stations set 72 hour all time snowfall records along the Sea of Japan. The French Riviera was cooled by Russian dry air from the NE.

 

Many parts of the UK had 10 to 70 cm of snow in the 10-day ECMWF forecasts as cold Arctic air plunged south from Greenland into the Irish and North Seas.  The satellite video loops clearly showed the cold unstable air triggering open-celled convection, a beautiful sight.  Cold temperatures and lack of wind turbine power forced energy prices higher in UK during one of the UK’s coldest January’s on record.

 

North America remained relatively mild with heavy snows (203-414 cm) on the Coast Range from Anchorage to Vancouver (with some moderate  snow in the Cascades and Sierra as the Aleutian Low continued to push short wave storms into the West.  Much of the SW US remains in Exceptional Drought.  

 

Australia continues to have a wet Northern Territory with some heavy rains (100 to 675 mm) across the Great Sandy and Gibsom Deserts 120-200 mm. New Zealand’s Alps had 53-101 cm of snow, while lower rain forests on the West Coast of the S. Island had from 193-332 mm.  The Andes’s snow fall area continued to shrink as the southern jet moved south; however, maximum 10-day forecasts were still at 114 to 308 cm.  Satellite skin temperatures on the lee side of the Andes in Argentina hit 35 to 44ºC.

 

Parts of the Antarctic where intense (970 to 950 mb) Southern Ocean storms focused on-shore flows had 146 to 209 cm of 10-day snows. Temperatures on the Peninsula reached 9ºC and the interior at Vostok -43ºC.  Siberia had several stations below -50ºC this week.

 

Colorado remained relatively dry as the main energy of short waves passed north and south of us.  This weekend may prove more interesting as the 10-day forecast has 20 to 75 cm mainly in the San Juans as a cutoff low forms in the SW.

 

See Global Weather 2020-21 album for detailed charts, and satellite images: https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8

 

 

 

11 JAN 2021

RECORD COLD hits the Northern Hemisphere from Canada’s NW Territories (-47ºC) to Western Europe, Siberia, India, China and Japan. Record LNG prices and shortages.  Bejing -19.6ºC coldest since 1966.  Over 20 weather stations across China equaled or broke lowest ever temperature records for December.

See Global Weather 2020-21 album for detailed charts, and satellite images: https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8

UK -12ºC  Spain Pyrenees -34.1ºC coldest ever on Iberian Peninsula. Energy prices sore in the UK.  Madrid has 33 cm of snow.

Alps pack in heavy snows: Slovenia’s  Kanin Ski Area and Kredarica > 4 m 2-3 times normal at this date see Album for photos.  Kredarica chapel is buried with 420 cm.

Spain and Morocco get significant snows as the Arctic air plunges south over western Europe.

Record snowfall closes off Kashmir from the rest of India.  

Mongololia ’s Tsetsen-Uu automatic weather station recorded a sea level pressure of 1094.3 mb a provisional World record high pressure with -45.5ºC.

North America’s Coast Range from Alaska to Washington continued to be battered with the Aleutian Low’s on-shore flow off the Pacific with up to 323 to 544 cm 10-day snow forecasts in Alaska and 314 to 504 cm in BC.  SW US continues under a ridge of high pressure with weak short-waves passing thru with light snows 1-10 cm.  A storm spun up over NM - Texas producing 3 to 9 inches of snow which passed over LA dropping 0.8 inches in Jackson, MS and pulling cold air over the region.  This week will continue to keep the South cold according to the US Navy model.

 

4 JAN 2021

 

POWERFUL STORMS continued to impact Northern Hemisphere weather from a large dome of Arctic air in Siberia (1064 mb) to a deep Aleutian Low (921 mb) that covered the N Pacific from Asia to N. America and pumped heavy snow into the Coast Range from Alaska (164 to 460 cm) to California’s High Sierra (74-210 cm).

 

The strong pressure gradient over E. Asia pulled cold air across the Sea of Japan dumping heavy snows there (134-185 cm).  Northern Japan recorded a monthly record low Temperature of -32.6 ºC (-27ºF) in Horokanai.  The forecast for Jan 1 to 7, 2021 is for >4 m of snow here.

 

See Global Weather 2020-21 album for detailed charts, and satellite images: https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8

 

Record cold was observed from Mongolia to E China as 80% of China’s provinces fell below December’s average monthly norm.

 

Slovenia’s Alps reached 407 cm at Kanin on the Italian border while areas above 1100 m had 1-2 m on the ground.  Kredarica reached 388 cm about twice its normal at the end of December.

 

Snow blanked much of the UK and Ireland, and Spain and Morocco received significant snow in their mountains.

 

Australia had remarkably heavy rains in the North with some areas 200 to over 800 mm.  

 

The Andes and the Antarctic continued to get significant snows of 110 to 308 cm and 209 cm respectively in the ECMWF 10-day forecasts.  The area covered by the snow fall was much less than in November and early December when they had 70 to 549 cm.

 

COLORADO will have a series of short waves in a WNW flow that will keep us relatively cold and snowy with brief breaks of sunshine during the next 10 days (total snowfall 10-22 cm).

 

 

28 DEC 2020

BOTH HEMISPHERES continue to have very active weather patterns that are delivering locally extreme events including record snows, cold and brief warm episodes in the warm sectors of storms.  The global weather album shows some beautiful classic storms from the Gulf of Alaska to the Irish Sea and extreme high pressure (1061 mb)  over Siberia.  The northern and southern jets and subtropical jets have a strong meridional (N-S) flow of 150 to 200 kt winds.

UK Met Office named Storm Bella (955 mb) which hit with 100 mph winds and brought cold, snow and ice to the region.  The Highlands had 25-72 cm of snow in the 10-day forecast.  Ireland also had snow with more cold and snow to come over the next 10 days.

Slovenia and the central Alps reached 310 cm on the ground at Kredarica (2514 m msl) while Albania had a forecast of up to 400 cm in its mountains.  

Siberia hit -51ºC the coldest so far under the huge 1060 mb dome of high pressure as Arctic air streamed south across China, Korea, and into Japan, where they continued to pile on deep mountain snows (134-158 cm over 10-days).

See Global Weather 2020-21 album for detailed charts, and satellite images: https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8

Florida was chilled by an Arctic blast that took cold air across the Gulf of Mexico down to the Yucatan Peninsula.  Northern Florida had hard freeze warnings and Miami did not get out of the 60’s.  It was an unusual Christmas Holiday.

The West Coast from Washington to California had beneficial rains and mountain snows (250 to 180 cm) as a major series of short waves paraded down to southern California then east as the jet stream dug south and moved east.  This pattern will continue to give us a series of storms with the most snow in the San Juan Mountains.  The very cold trough will keep our mountains cold this week.  The Aleutian Low  continues to dominate the N Pacific as the strong jet stream from Japan to the mid-Pacific feeds cold Arctic air and energy into the system.  The warm Sea Surface Temperature SST anomaly in the N Pacific helped energize the Aleutian Low; however, the cold N Atlantic seemed to have little impact on the strong Icelandic Lows that hit the UK.  The southern hemisphere was dominated by a strong cold la Nina and cold Indian Ocean.

Australia continued to have heavy precipitation forecasts from Darwin to Brisbane with 200 to 400+ mm in the ECMWF model forecasts.  Satellite and Radar data confirmed strong storms along an Antarctic front under a 100-150 kt jet.  Forecast surface temperatures were 12 to 16ºC below normal over large areas.

 

21 Dec 2020  Winter Solstice

See Global Weather 2020-21 album for detailed charts, and satellite images: https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8

Our past week was remarkable breaking many winter records for cold and snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic States from Pennsylvania to S New England as major storm “Gail” moved up the East Coast.  The ECMWF model also did quite well in  predicting the evolution of this storm 10 days out.  

Notably Binghampton, NY had >40 inches and snow falling at 7 inches per hour at times, and Ludlow VT had >44 inches both breaking all time records.  State College, PA home to PennState Univ. broke its 1893 record of 15 inches  in 24 hrs and exceeded its 2019-2020 total snowfall.

The Pacific atmospheric river (AR) continued to dump heavy snows (198 to 351 cm) on the N American Coast Range from Alaska to Washington leaving Red Mountain in the precipitation shadow  0-71 cm (0-28)  inches on the ground to the lee of the Coast Range.  Compare this to Whistler-Blackomb with 132 cm base and total season 289 cm snowfall.

JAPAN broke its 380-year record snow with heavy snows from very cold advection across the Sea of Japan from Siberia and China.  Satellite imagery clearly showed the cold air steaming into Japan for the past week and ECMWF model was right on in its max snowfall forecasts (153-188 cm) .  Japan saw 2 ft / hr in this storm.  Have a look at my global wx album

Slovenia had 250 cm at the Kredarica observatory (2514m msl) on 21 DEC, rising from just 15 cm on 2 Dec to 255 on 10 DEC as a major storm hit the Alps last week.

Australia continued to get heavy rains coast to coast with Alice Springs even having more than 50 mm as the Southern Jet persistently moved storms across the continent.  Over 350 mm in the western desert and 120 mm near Brisbane.

Even the Chilean Andes had 207 to 358 cm this week.  

The Grand Solar Minimum’s impacts were quite evident.

Enjoy Christmas Week, Summit County will have plenty of snow on the ground this year.  Next week could be more interesting.

14 Dec 2020

See Global Weather 2020-21 album for detailed charts, and satellite images: https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8  

Two classic deep winter storms dominated the weather this week:  The Aleutian and Ice land Lows which covered the N Pacific and N Atlantic with center pressures of 960 and 970 mb respectively.  Both clearly showed the cold advection from the Arctic wrapping around the storms in the satellite images with the Icelandic storm pulling cold air south down the Labrador straight across the Atlantic and down into Western Europe and N Africa.

From the Alps to the High and Middle Atlas heavy snow fell setting records and halting travel.  Slovenia’s Julien Alps received 2-3 m of new snow.  The World Cup ski races in Austria were stopped due to heavy snow and poor visibility.

UK gets wide-spread snow 30 cm in Scotland.

Rare summer snow in New Zealand.

East Asia will fall 20ºC below normal of -40ºC a possible world record by 20 Dec 2020.

Australia gets locally heavy (100-250 mm) rains from coast to coast.

Andes continue to get heavy snows > 2 m 8-18 Dec 2020.

North American Coast Range from Anchorage to Seattle continues to get heavy snows 2-3 meters as California’s Sierra get 40-80 cm.  Colorado remains on the dry side as several short waves pass thru bringing 2-10 inches and lows of -2 to -17ºF .

7 DEC 2020

Winter has significantly impacted the N hemisphere this week  with heavy snows from Alaska to the UK and Alps.  

Italy’s Dolomites have received up to 3 m of new snow as Slovenia went from 15 cm to 185 cm at their Triglav observatory and their Kanin ski area had 270 cm.  Ljubljana went from 15 cm to 6 as they had heavy rains of >100mm on the snow.  High Altas of Morocco get 30 to 70 cm of snow.

The Jet Steams of the N and S Hemispheres continued a strong winter-like pattern with 5 major waves (wave number 5) providing significant meridional (N-S) flows of moisture and warm and cold air and associated surface storms.

UK received 20-80 cm of snow and temperatures plunged to -9ºC in the Highlands in Thundersnow.

Siberia continued to cool under the dark winter as an Arctic Ocean low 970 mb and Siberian High 1048 mb combined to pull Arctic air southward.

British Columbia measurements of glacier depths found 92.5 m deep ice ~28 to 49% more snow than model predictions.  Today the Coastal range from Anchorage to Vancouver is still in the cross-hairs of the Atmospheric River AR getting from 211 to 558 cm ( 83-219 inches) in the 10-day ECMWF forecasts.  The intense 945 mb Aleutian Low has remained essentially stationary feeding the jet into the coast range.

NE US has 1st major NorEaster that produced heavy snow inland and rain on the coast. This week’s jet will push more cold air south into the Mid-Atlantic States.

The SW US continued under a strong ridge providing warm dry conditions that will change on 12 Dec as a strong short wave digs south pushing the ridge out and opening up a more westerly meridional flow with a series of short waves that may produce some snow in Colorado over the next 10 days.  

The Andes continued to get 1-3 meters of snow this past week as the southern jet continued to move storms from Australia to NZ and into South America.  Heavy rains were predicted in Western Australia’s deserts 100-240 mm over large areas as the Antarctic front moved northward.  Fires were located in the NE of Australia and in large areas of Brasil.

30 NOV 2020

Thanksgiving week and next week promise to be most interesting periods of late fall weather breaking many cold records with very strong storms in both hemispheres.  Have a look at the news and facts at my Global Weather 2020-21 album:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8

HIGHLANDS of Ireland and Scotland get 42-62 cm of snow in a cold NW flow from Greenland’s -40ºC ice fields.

ITALY and Austria ECMWF forecast of 120 to 225 cm of new snow this week as a series of storms move south over western Europe. Slovenia will get significant mountain snows.

Siberia and China have unusually cold temperatures under a 1050 mb high pressure.  Normally these high pressures are not seen until late December to February.  Great Wall of China sees snow.

RECORD Snow and Cold in India and Pakistan’s Hindu Kush Mountains stop traffic in Kashmir and on Khyber Pass

New Zealand’s South Island has 56 cm of snow while its west coast rain forest has 140-166 mm of rain.  The Andes continue to have heavy snowfalls of 2-4 meters over the past 10-day’s forecasts.

Australia’s Northern Territories by Darwin had 202 mm while New South Wales had 30-60 mm in it’s 10-day QPF.   Seems to be doing much better than last spring.  Australia swings from 30 to 40ºC to a rare summer snow and New Zealand’s Nov 26-4 Dec Forecast up to 32 inches in its Alps

LABRADOR record snow ~ 3 feet from same storm that “obliterated” records across Toronto and southern Quebec.  ECCC warns that NWT will have colder than average winter with more snow as Pearson airport breaks Nov 22nd record.

ANCHORAGE TO VANCOUVER heavy 2-5 meter ECMWF forecasts on each of the past 10 days.  Those glaciers must be growing, finally, as a series of Aleutian Lows pound the west coast of North America and a warm N Pacific pool (DSST+1-2ºC) feeds moisture and energy to the storms and atmospheric river (AR).

23 NOV 2020  Happy Thanksgiving

Northern Hemisphere weather was dominated by 3-4 Major Polar Vortices from the Aleutian Low, NE Canadian Low, Icelandic Low to a deep Siberian/Arctic Ocean Low.  These large deep extratropical cyclones were separated by strong anticyclones (Highs) which balanced the mass and energy conservation providing relief from the cold wet troughs and warm dry ridges between systems.  You can see examples on my Global weather album with links from my web page. https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8  

In this week’s log I have added links to the latest real-time sources for those interested in details.  My book also shows how to navigate these web sites.

see: https://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/935_100.gif

US Navy models:  https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html  

The USN web site is a bit more complicated, you must select the region of interest, model, and time and type of forecasts.  Jet stream is at 300mb, storm polar vortex at 700mb, and surface thickness at: “Previous 6-hr Precipitation Rate [mm/12hr] and Sea Level Pressure [hPa]” this shows the rain/snow line at 540 a bold red line.

Over 100 cold temperature records were broken in the NE US this week.  Denver was warm in the 70’s before an Arctic front and some snow cooled them off and we in Summit County dropped to 10ºF (-12ºC) with ~3 inches of snow.   Thanksgiving week looks cold and snowy from the NW to the NE US.  

SNOTEL observations in the NW US are generally > 150% of normal (156 to 533%), Colorado is at 86 to 145%; however note that early season percentages are very unstable.
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf

ECCC (Environment and Climate Change Canada) new name for Environment Canada predicted that the NW Territories would have a colder than average winter due to the la Nina.

Russia’s Siberian region had significant snows 60-70 cm and cold from -20 to -40ºC.
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,60.196,47.197,3,m:fcRafsG
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,60.196,47.197,3,m:fBgaiEz

As I have mentioned before, the WINDY.COM web site has a fascinating wealth of real-time information well worth exploring and mastering.

Finnish Meteorological Institute puts the Global Snow Mass well above average for the 2020-2021 winter so far.

Norway’s SW coastal mountains gained significant snows of 1-3 m as the Icelandic Low moved up the coast to the Barents Sea. Scotland’s Highlands also had Fall snows of 8-36 cm this week.
SEE: https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,71.705,7.603,4,m:fnPaglQ  
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,71.705,7.603,4,m:fv3agys

Slovenia’s capitol Ljubljana had its first hard freeze of the season with a minimum temperature at -5ºC under clear dry skies of a 1035 mb high after 4 days of stratus and fog mornings.

Morocco’s High Atlas Mountains have been getting 30 to 70 cm this past week as Iran had 30 to 66 cm and heavy rains of 100 to 150 mm while the Himalayas had 50 to 160 cm.  

Southern Hemisphere still has very active weather with significant rains in parts of Australia - New Zealand (100 to 300 mm) and heavy snows in the Andes with 2 to 4 meter forecasts all week.  Deep cyclonic storms continue to circle the Antarctic with center pressures from 945 to 960 mb and dumping 1-2 meters on the high coastal mountains.

16 Nov 2020

Beaufort Gyre is our “Ticking Time Bomb” according to experts at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Yale, and CU’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research.  It could trigger an ice age abruptly.  Salinity changes in the Arctic Ocean are indicative of such a change occurring now.  

Hurricane CAT 4-5 Iota 30th named storm - a record hits Nicaragua over night.  Major flooding, debris flows and damage expected.

ARCTIC BLASTS hit Canada > 1-2 meters again in Coast Mtns of BC and Saskatchewan and Alberta.  Snowfall records are smashed for Nov.  The web site album shows the extent of snow from the GOES West satellite.

Cold Stormy Western US over the next 10 days with up to 2 meters from BC to Colorado on the high mountains as the jet stream brings a series of short waves to western North America.   

Southern Hemisphere Jet remains strong with 150-170 kt winds.

Strong Solar flare sends Corona Mass Ejection away from Earth fortunately.

Major Indonesian Volcano eruption imminent in Central Java.

9 NOV 2020

Record warm days in Colorado last week followed by a cold period and some snow.  Heavy snow in the San Juans (1-3 ft)  as the jet stream dove south from Canada to Mexico and dumped >1 ft of snow in the Sierra, with moderate rains along the west coast from Washington to California.  We remain in the long wave trough with several pulses of energy - short waves providing much needed moisture this week.  

The Arctic Ocean still not completely frozen, but its circulation intensifies as fresh low salinity water changes the normal flow.  This needs close watching as crustal water may be released by under ice volcanoes.  This open water provides an excellent source of energy for the deep polar vortex - like storms that have persisted over eastern Canada and SE of Greenland in 2020 with center pressures of 943 mb - lower than many CAT 3 hurricanes.  Greenland continued to accumulate 1-3 meters, Iceland 75 to 238 cm, and Norway 58 to 179 cm of new snow this week.

Russia and the Himalaya received good snows from 96 to 138 cm as Japan had 39-54 cm.  Alaska and British Columbia and max values of 132 to 227 cm, providing a solid snow cover in their mountains.

In the Southern Hemisphere the jet stream remained unusually intense at 100 to 196 kt near Australia bringing record cold to Sydney and Brazil for early November.  The Antarctic Peninsula had from 308 to 549 cm in its 10-day ECMWF forecast (the most I have seen yet).

Cosmic ray flux has risen by 15% from 2015 to 2020, consistent with the Grand Solar Minimum and increasing CCN and clouds.

Time Magazine had an interesting cover on the Great Reset showing increased agriculture in the Sahel.  Chad had record floods, and the Ethiopian Highlands have continued to get heavy rains  (100-200 mm) helping fill China’s Renaissance Dam.

2 NOV 2020

 

A COLD period continued in the N Hemisphere as a strong meridional Jet Stream prevailed bringing record early cold temperatures and snows from the US to Eastern Russia.  80% of Russia was snow covered - a bit early.  Temperatures in Eastern Siberia dropped to -20 to -40ºC.

The Icelandic Low continued to spin over the N Atlantic bringing cool air and some mountain snows into Spain.  Norway had heavy mountain snows of 1-2 m.

The Antarctic Peninsula had a 519 cm 10-day snow forecast while the Andes had less than 1 m under a strong high pressure.  Australia and New Zealand continued to get Antarctic fronts that provided much beneficial rain from 85 to 250 mm in the 10-day forecasts.

Arctic Ocean currents accelerating and open waters in October 2020 very unusual.  Adapt 2030 presents an interesting argument of crustal water and under sea volcanism causing salinity changes that control the Arctic currents.  This could be an extreme disruption of Earth’s energy balance as the North Atlantic Drift slows???
See:
https://youtu.be/jCha9_U8Dlk
Circulation. Crust split warming sea??

 

 

 

26 OCT 2020

Extreme COLD penetrated south from Canada this week into the High Plains, California and Texas to Mexico as a winter-like intense jet stream plunged south from the Arctic breaking all time records from British Columbia to Minnesota and south to Texas.  

Colorado’s wild fire containment was helped by heavy snow and extreme cold for October, while the same system brought hurricane force Santa Anna winds to California and extreme fire weather.  

Europe  had a classic winter extratropical cyclone (952 mb low) west of the UK .  Have a look at the Global Weather Album for more details and satellite image of this beautiful perfect storm.

Greenland, Siberia and North America turned winter-like a month early as the Alaskan and British Columbian mountains collected 1-2 m of new snow.

Australia and New Zealand continue to get Antarctic fronts that dump significant rains from 100 to 500 mm in the ECMWF forecasts.  windy.com's radar also shows strong spots of echoes along the satellite defined fronts.  The Antarctic Peninsula and Thwaites Glacier continue to get late spring heavy snows from 1-2 m as the snow in the Andes lessens to 1 m.  

As I showed you in my July talk, the laws of conservation of Energy and Mass still drive our weather, not mankind.  Mother Nature is in control, however, the Sun’s Grand Solar Minimum is having its effects as it did in the Little Ice Age - late and early season freezes that shorten the growing season and cut crop production.

China is completing the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia and the East African Monsoon is helping fill this very large dam.  China is looking to N Africa for food, same place where Europe got its food in the Ice Ages, when they could not get sustainable harvests.   More on this is in my album too.

19 OCT 2020

Mid-October Jet stream is like December’s winter pattern in the Northern Hemisphere, southern jet remains strong, like winter too.

Western Europe stays cool and wet with high elevation early snows as Asia and Siberia cool.

Cold, Snow and Epic Flooding hit Slovakia as Slovenia gets a good early white cover above 1100 m msl.  Triglav Observatory 2514 m msl has 80 cm on the ground.

North America continues in a Hot Dry West and cool wet East pattern as Wild fires set records again with Colorado at its largest fire in recorded history > 200,000 acres.

Montana gets significant snowfall > 12-30 inches with snow across ND, MN, Wis, … along the jet stream / cold front. ECMWF snowfall forecast up to 90 cm in next 10 days. Iceland could get over 2 meters.

Australia continues to get significant rains from Victoria to New South Wales and Western Australia as Antarctic Fronts continue to move northward.

11 Oct 2020

Strong La Nina in East Pacific has developed which usually leaves NW wet and cold, SW warm and dry, East cold and wet as a distinctive wave in the jet puts a ridge over the SW and trough in the East with Pineapple Express hitting NW.  We are on the western edge of the trough, so could get some storms.  Summit County normally gets heavy snows in a NW flow, but we need to be on the trough’s lifting side, not the ridge’s sinking side of the jet.  Location of this lift plus the mountain orographic lift is critical in a moisture flux for precipitation.

Europe and Asia could get extreme cold and snow.  If southern hemisphere’s winter is any indication, we could have a similar record cold winter in many places.  Slovenia gets deep snow above 1100 m 70 cm at Kredarica Observatory at 2514 m msl.  Alps get snow down to the Monaco.

North America turns cold and snowy 1-2 m new snow from mountains of Alaska to central NW Territories.  Cold seeps south across Colorado down to Gulf Coast as a deep polar vortex like storm churns over Hudson Bay.  Pacific NW gets significant rain and snow as MT gets a heavy snow of 100 cm.  A 2007 Journal of Forestry paper showed that before the Europeans reached the West in the 1800s the very dry West would have annual forest fires that covered more than 4 Million acres, much like 2020's extreme fires.

5 Oct 2020

RECORD FIRES continue on West Coast > 4 Million acres burned including Sonoma and Napa Valleys - wine country USA.

AUSTRALIA continues to get Antarctic blasts of cold air and precipitation along the cold fronts extending from Darwin across Alice Springs to Melbourne producing up to 101 mm near Alice Springs - a rare event and 97 mm in Victoria: so far a cool wet spring. Australia gets 5 to 12ºC cold anomaly from Darwin to Melbourne October 6-8 2020 as Antarctic air flows in from Perth to Brisbane.

October brings cool snowy weather to much of the Northern Hemisphere from Alaska to EuroAsia. Maps in the Album show this ECMWF forecast.  Out of season snows blanket both Hemispheres.  Pyrenees and Alps get early snows.

Atlanta suffered coldest end of September in 40 years on Oct 1, 2020.

20 Sept 2020

Record early cold from Eastern North America to the Alps and Asia.

The northern hemisphere jet stream is strengthening  and pushing polar air masses south in strong meridional (N-S) waves breaking our many cold temperature records from Duluth to Davos and Siberia.

Fires and record heat in the West with Denver hitting its 74th day at or above 90ºF this season and the worst air quality on record.

Arctic Ocean is refreezing at a remarkably fast rate after a large area of open ice free sea this summer.  Greenland falling to -35ºC and it’s ice growing at a record early fall pace.

Southern Hemisphere jet remains strong with snow continuing in Australia, New Zealand, Andes and the Antarctic.

See the Global Weather Album 2019-2020 for supporting evidence.

Electroverse has posted a new article: 11 Scientific Predictions for the upcoming Grand Solar Minimum (spoiler: wrap up, its getting cold)

You can view it from this link : https://electroverse.net/11-scientific-predictions-for-the-upcoming-grand-solar-minimum/  

 

For clips of these events see my Global Weather Album 2019-2020

14 SEPT 2020

RECORD WILD FIRES continue to expand from Washington to California as smoke plumes extend over 1300 miles into Pacific and across the West into High Plains.  Many of these fires were set by arsonists.  Colorado’s record fires continued inspite of the recent storm.

Colorado had a cold week seeing many record low maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures as the cold low pressure spun over the 4-corners and moved north across Colorado providing clouds and snow showers.  This cold Canadian air mass moved south into Mexico.

The jet stream in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres strengthened bringing a meridional flow with storms that produced heavy snow from Greenland to Norway and New Zealand to The Andes with 1 to 4 meters of new snow.  South Georgia Island had over 1 m.  Australia had significant rains from Victoria to South Australia and New South Wales as Antarctic cold fronts moved in.  Siberia is getting cold and the snow is falling - up to 50-122 cm.

Greenland's glaciers grew at a record rate.  Snow storms hindered the R& D expeditions.  UK had early season snows covering the top of Ben Nevis the highest mountain in Scotland, accompanied by 10 floods in Scotland.  More frigid air coming next week.

Just recently, NOAA released an interactive tool cataloging sunspots from 1750. The tool allows you to scroll back through time, comparing sunspot counts now to peaks and valleys of the past — “one thing is clear,” writes Dr Tony Phillips on spaceweather.com, “Solar Minimum is here, and it’s one of the deepest in a century.”

Hurricane Sally approaches Gulf coast with storm surge and flooding rains.

10 Sept 2020

Record wild fires continue on the West Coast from Oregon to California producing huge amounts of CO2, smoke and ash that is pouring out into the Pacific and then into the atmosphere’s general circulation.  Colorado had the worst air quality ever last weekend with visibility down to less than 1 mile, health hazard alerts, and warnings to stay inside on Labor Day Weekend.  Snows in Colorado with cold temperatures helped our fire fighting heroes a bit.

Heavy snows in parts of Colorado brought over 12-15 inches in places, we had 2.8 on 9 Sept, and another 1-2 on 10th with a low temperature of 21ºF.  The official DEN NWS station dropped from a record max T of 93º to 31º on 7-8 Sept as the cold front passed a drop of 62º.  Denver is now setting cold records this week after a 101º record last weekend.

 

7 SEPT 2020


WEEK OF EXTREMES:  RECORD MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC AIR REPLACES HOT DESERT SW AIR.  73 DAYS > 90ºF IN DENVER followed by hard freeze in Mountains and Plains - evidence of GSM??  We tied the 2012 summer so far.  The hard freeze will curtail crop growth and cut yields.

Three Typhoons/Tropical storms batter Korea and Japan this week.  Super typhoon Maysak fortunately hit with a cat 3 level see album for details.  

Europe cools down with Eastern Siberia accumulating 50-80 cm of snow.  Monsoon continues to south with over 1000 mm in Burma’s mountains.  Ethopia’s highlands get 100-200 mm helping fill the Renaissance Dam…

Southern Hemisphere jet continues strong with cold Antarctic fronts pasing over Australia’s south, the Andes and over Patagonia, and southern Africa.  

Alaska has its first 200+ cm dump forecast; while Mt Logan, BC gets 140 cm.   ECMWF predicts 77 cm for this week in the Colo San Juans (predicted 8 days ago).  We’ll see what we get.

 

 

30 Aug 2020
    windy.com has updated its satellite temperature analysis to show a full range of temperatures measured by the satellites from ground, sea, and cloud surfaces.  In clear skies you can see the ground temperatures like 48ºC over the Sahara desert and 0º over our house this morning when we had frost on rooftops.

The northern Hemisphere’s jet stream is intensifying and will bring Arctic outbreaks southward in the next weeks.  The Southern Hemisphere jet is still strong and keeping southern Australia, New Zealand, South America, and Africa colder than normal.

Remnants of Hurricane Laura passed thru the Mid-Atlantic states after hitting Lake Charles, LA as a Cat 4 150 kt storm on 26 Aug causing extensive damage. It was the 3rd CAT 4 to hit LA and was surpassed by a CAT 5 in 1970.  It was billed as the worst in LA in 150 years.

Floods in China are threatening to over top the Three Gorges Dam, and have wrecked havoc with crops cutting production by 70%.

Very cold air is predicted to drop European temperatures next week to 12ºC below normal with similar cold in the Central US.  

28 Aug 2020
New Zealand’s S Island had snow down to valley floor with good snow continuing on the mountain slopes.

Eastern Siberia is getting 90-105 cm in their snow forecasts, while central Russia west of the Caspian Sea had a rare summer snow storm at Kurush.

China’s engineers are nearing completion of the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia on the Blue Nile.  This huge dam will control a major source for the Nile River in Egypt and is designed to irrigate new / ancient farmlands, and provide 6,000 MW of hydropower.  China is planning for the GSM’s impact on food production.

 DEATH VALLEY had a 130ºF max temp this month.  Weather Wise magazine (July/august 2020) pages 14-23 has an excellent article on “Torrid Temperature Tribulations” by Walt Lyons.  It is available on news stands and on-line.  This article provides an excellent overview of record max temperatures world wide including the July 10, 1913 record in Death Valley at 134ºF (56.6ºC).  see: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.2020.1762407 

 

25 Aug 2020
     Southern Hemisphere continues to have strong jet that is bringing record cold waves to Australia, South America and South Africa.  Heavy snows in SE Australia
       Argentina has heavy sheep and cattle losses 100,00 sheep and 5,000 cattle estimated

       “Bassi calls this a survival challenge for the farmers in the region, particularly those with with flocks no larger than 250. These small highland farmers make money out of the wool and survive the winter feeding on the mutton, and “we will have to give them some sort of support,” insists Bassi.
       Rio Negro province Senator Alberto Weretilneck presented an initiative in Congress requesting extraordinary economic aid for these farmers due to this agriculture emergency caused by adverse climatic conditions — one such initiative could be to apply zero export duties to wool.
The province has now declared an agriculture emergency, and, according to the Senator, implementing further measures is urgent, particularly in light of the latest weather forecasts which are calling for worsening conditions.
Much of South America has been battered by extreme, record-smashing, and rarely-reported polar cold of late, as a powerful mass of Antarctic air continues to ride anonymously-far north on the back of a meridional jet stream flow (a phenomenon linked to the historically low solar activity we’re currently experiencing)” - Electroverse Cap Alion 24 august 2020

             The town of Oberon, Australia received a record-breaking 20 cm (8 inches) of global warming goodness, the highest 24-hour snow total ever recorded outside of an Aussie alpine region. Ski areas up to 100 cm
       China and India continue to have record floods in a very strong monsoon that has devastated crop production
        Greenland is experiencing early heavy snows and surface mass gains with 50 to 200 cm snowfall predictions over large areas.  
         Russia has had heavy early snowfalls in eastern Siberia where they had a record warm June and fires, now record cold-8ºC 23 Aug in Yakutia, Moscow region early August frosts at -1ºC
         
17 AUG 2020
    Strong Jet Max across Australia : deep cyclone in Bite pushes cold Antarctic air across southern Australia

 

 

8/15/2020
    13 Aug E Siberia 64 cm snow -1.1ºC  Record cold morning
    13 Aug  Historic Antarctic Blast in S Brasil -30ºC Temperature anomaly
    15 Aug  -5ºC E Siberia;   Greenland + 4GT record August increase in mass balance
        
Greenland Climate Scientist Dies during recent Record-Breaking Snow/Ice Gains
August 15, 2020 Cap Allon
Konrad Steffen was one of the world’s leading voices on global warming. I would regularly run into his research, and although I didn’t agree with the majority of his conclusions, the man’s dedication to his work was admirable.
Steffen, the Director of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, died at the age of 68 on Saturday (Aug 8). He worked on global warming for more than 40 years, focusing on its impacts on the Arctic and Antarctic, reads an official statement.
Born in 1952, Konrad Steffen was a dual Swiss and American citizen. He had headed the WSL since 2012. Having studied natural sciences, he gained a doctorate from ETH Zurich in 1984. In 1990 he was appointed as Professor of Climatology at the University of Colorado in Boulder, USA, where he subsequently headed the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). As of 2012, he was also Professor for Climate and Cryosphere at ETH Zurich and at EPFL in Lausanne.

One visitor, former VP Al Gore, posted a tweet on Monday stating that “Koni’s renowned work as a glaciologist has been instrumental in the world’s deepened understanding of the climate crisis.”

Dr. Steffen believed the accumulating risks of climate change had not yet sunk in with the public. If people hear projections that warming will increase by two degrees by the year 2100, he said, they might dismiss it, saying “two degrees is not so bad.”

The Greenland ice sheet should ordinarily be LOSING 4 gigatons a day in mid-August, but instead it’s currently GAINING never-before-seen volumes of snow/ice–accelerating the trend of growth witnessed over recent years.
Denmark’s Polar Portal called it “unseasonally snowy weather,” and that “an increase in surface mass balance of 4 gigatons is extreme for the season.”
Since mid-July, the sheet has been recording well-below-average melt, and since the beginning of August it has GAINED mass (approximately 13 gigatons since Aug 10!) — this is unheard of in summer, and as Jason Box pointed out, this exceptionally snowy event likely attributed to Steffan’s tragic death.
14 Aug 4 wildfires across Colorado Heavy smoke in Summit County Vsby < 3 miles

8/1/2020   Patagonia Record cold -23ºC  5 ft snowfall many sheep frozen in snow
8/6/20    Siberia Snow in Pevek 1 month earlier than normal
8/9/20    SIBERIA:  Cold flow from Barents Sea to Caspian Sea 700 mb 340º 40-60 kt
        T sfc 10 to16ºC down from 30’s

8/10/20  Greenland Surface Mass Balance + 8 GT above normal curve
             China continues heavy monsoon 200-900 mm
    India 200-700 mm   Max in Himalayas >1000 mm
8/11/20  Sumatra Volcano Sinabund errupts to 30,000 ft 9.1 km darkens sky to night
    China: Typhoon cat 1 forms off Taiwan  705 mm inland  130 mm on coast
July-August 2020 Weatherwise has articles on Torrid Temperatures, and Alaskan Extremes

7/26/2020:

AUSTRALIA: Charlotte Pass Ski Area 1765 m msl Snow 20-102 cm
     Sydney 307 mm rainfall QPF

US Hurricane Hanna CAT 1 SW Texas

EUROPE:  Good air conditioning from Atlantic   Central England Temperature 15.3ºC coolest July on record

CANADA:  Baffin and Ellismere Islands 50 to 100 cm new snow

ANTARCTICA:  -76ºC  -105ºF  ECMWF model -80ºC
    Thwaites Glacier continues to gain 50 to 200 cm in forecasts

Ukraine and Russian grain production down 19% from last year - late planting cold rainy May, drought hot June …

    Siberian June Heat wave and fires ended by record cold and snow

NORWAY: coldest summer in 60 years

SWEDEN: coldest summer since 1961

Arctic storm 968 mb lowest pressure ever

CHINA:  400-yr floods SE China Crops destroyed
    Bejing 6 min of snow - not hail

INDIA: SW MONSOON Floods

AUSTRALIA: Victoria - New South Wales S+ R+
    300mb flow 190º  156 kt flow into the Bite

Hurricanes 2017: All time Records

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria set all time historic records of intensity, duration and catastrophic damage.  This is byfar the worst most destructive hurricane season the United States has ever had. We have suffered hundreds of deaths, massive destruction of property and land, and Billions in damage.  These hurricanes were well predicted and emergency evacuations ordered days in advance of the landfall thanks to NOAA's forecast teams, emergency managers and local governments. 

2015 Year of Extremes

Selected Extreme events of 2015

LATEST Major Weather Events

30 NOV 2015:  COP21 Climate Talks in Paris


Leaders from over 180 countries from around the world are meeting in Paris to develop a comprehensive plan to curb greenhouse emissions and develop renewable energy.  President Obama noted that terrorists were unable to stop such an important meeting of world leaders from taking place.  President Obama clearly stated that the US has taken significant steps to slowing emissions and are now producing renewable energy that is competitive with conventional fuels.  He stated specific goals for emission reduction of 17% by 2020 and 25% by 2025 and requested that other countries do the same with significant commitments with capitol to drive down costs of clean energy.   The US supports emission reductions, but will not sign an agreement!!!!
Data from 2015 indicate that this is the warmest year on record based on surface measurements.  Extreme weather continues around the world from record winters to extremely hot summers.  Today, Bejing’s pollution set records 17 times greater than world health standards.

7 Dec 2015:  Extreme floods in Channi, India and UK.

India battling deadly floods in Chennai
 Weeks of heavy rain and flooding have inundated Chennai, India
   

In 24 hours, Chennai received as much rain as London would in 6 months (CNN)Weeks of heavy rain and flooding have knocked out power, suspended public transportation and left people stranded in Chennai, one of India's largest cities. It has rained 34 of the past 40 days and the heavy-rain-warning continues, according to CNN meteorologists. The rain warning for the southern Indian states of Tamil Nadu and neighboring Puducherry are forecast through December 5, according to India's main weather office.

UK has extreme Precipitation:

Office:  Rain and storms soaked the northern U.K. this weekend, prompting evacuations, severe flood warnings and the arrival of the army in the worst-hit areas.  Rory Stewart, the British floods minister, told the BBC that Storm Desmond has “broken all the U.K. rainfall records” and unleashed “a completely unprecedented amount of water.”
Drone footage shot above Kendal, a flood-hit town in Cumbria, shows the flooded cricket ground and people wading through inches of water.

 Cumbra Wales 7 Dec 2015

Storm Desmond dumped more than 10 inches of rain on some areas in England, including the northwestern county of Cumbria, while other rain-battered regions such as North Wales got more than seven inches, according to the Met Office, the U.K. weather forecaster.  Nearly 50 severe flood warnings (which indicate danger to life) remain in effect in England and Wales, while 32 flood warnings are in place in Scotland.

 

UK Extreme floods

An Environment Agency spokesman warned "significant flooding" was expected in the area, adding: "The situation is serious and there is a significant risk to life.”  Homes around the 18th century stone bridge, over the River Wharfe, were evacuated by soldiers.
An Environment Agency spokesman warned "significant flooding" was expected in the area, adding: "The situation is serious and there is a significant risk to life."

The strongest El Nino on record is likely to increase the threat of hunger and disease for tens of millions of people in 2016 aid agencies say.

 

December 30, 2015 CNN:
More than 18 million Americans live in areas under flood warnings, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday.Thirteen states are affected, NOAA said.
One of the states most affected is Missouri, which is grappling with deadly flooding that will threaten cities and towns along rivers for days even through the most of the rain has stopped.
Levees have been overtopped in West Alton, just north of St. Louis. And late Tuesday, St. Charles County emergency officials ordered all people to evacuate the mostly rural area, which lies on the Mississippi River.
Record flooding on Mississippi There have been an estimated 49 weather-related deaths in the past week across the country, with the current severe storm system blamed for 35 deaths: 13 in Missouri, 11 in the Dallas area, five in southern Illinois, five in Oklahoma and at least one in Georgia. Many died after their cars were swept away by floodwater.
Record Flooding in Mississippi River
225 roads closed across Missouri I44 closed in 2 places

US Streamflow Map 30 DEC 2016

 

US Streamflow 30 DEC 2016  NOAA

Major historic flooding: NOAA Flood Forecast Map

 

Flood Hydrograph showing historic flood at Cape Girardeau Mississippi: 27 DEC 2015 to 6 Jan 2016

 

Cape Girardeau Mississippi Hydrograph

GLOBE

GLOBE - Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment GLOBE presents an opportunity for students, teachers, and scientists to learn and develop scientific thought processes and to understand our environment.  In the early 1990’s Vice President Al Gore had an idea to help children around the world use the internet to communicate and learn about each other and their environment.  His goal was to have at least one computer in every school around the world.  He wanted students to improve their understanding of science and math thru making observations that they could share.  I had an opportunity to meet Dr. Sandy McDonald, Director, Forecast Systems Laboratory, NOAA when he was helping Al Gore develop the early stages of GLOBE in 1993.  At the time I worked with the US Bureau of Reclamation and was a visiting scientist at NCAR in Boulder, Colorado.  NCAR and UCAR hosted many meetings on GLOBE and UCAR now hosts the GLOBE Implementation Office (GIO).  One of my interests has been to promote GLOBE in various regions.  After returning from Morocco in 1988, I maintained interests with the Direction de la Meteorologie National and with friends at the Casablanca American School.  Morocco joined GLOBE after helping make the connections there. 

Today, I am interested in helping Slovenia join GLOBE.  This effort dovetails with US Ambassador, Brent Hartley’s interest in developing a partnership between the Slovenian Triglav National Park and Crater Lake National Park in Oregon.  Environmental science and biodiversity are common interests of Triglav and Crater Lake park rangers and environmental scientists.

Lyn Wigbels, International Coordinator, GLOBE Implementation Office relayed this information about recent GLOBE Student Research Experience: "I was pleased to hear about the Ambassador’s project which sounds like a great venue for involving students in the GLOBE Program.  Over the years, GLOBE activities have been organized in national parks.  Most recently, during our 20th GLOBE Annual Meeting in Estes Park, Colorado, in July, GLOBE students visited Rocky Mountain National Park to take part in a Student Research Experience:
 
http://www.globe.gov/news-events/globe-news/newsdetail/globe/video-captures-the-essence-of-the-2016-globe-student-research-experience? 

This video truly captures the essance of the GLOBE scientific discovery process and clearly demonstrates how it works to engage students from around the world in learning about nature and their environment.  It shows how students apply the scientific procss and communicate their discoveries to others working with their mentors.

Joining GLOBE can be a life changing process that enables teachers, scientists, GLOBE partners, and alumni to improve their understanding of earth.

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