Hydrometdss

Global Extreme Weather Log

WEEKLY GLOBAL EXTREMES

(Article Mnager-news and events)

This page provides a weekly log of unique weather events and information that summarizes some key events of note. Most of the extreme notes are from Electroverse Extreme Weather daily updates.

For clips of these events see my Global Weather Album: Global Weather 2020-2021.

 

Global Weather Album 2020-2021: https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8 

Global Weather Album Spring 2021:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8  

Global Weather Album Fall-Winter  2021-22:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7

Global Weather Album Winter  2022-23: https://photos.app.goo.gl/yMZB2gDoTbqLZzdQA

Global Weather Album Summer 2023: https://photos.app.goo.gl/rBprNqGzNmHBodKy8

Global Weather Album Fall - Winter 2023: https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6

Global Weather Album Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7 

 

The purpose of these Global Extreme Weather Logs is to educate and inform you about Mother Nature’s way of keeping a balance in our planet’s weather.  I provide examples of events that may not be reported elsewhere and physical explanations of the causes of these extremes.  Note: I do not focus on heat as the MSM covers that aspect of our climate variability..

 ECMWF SH 10-DAY TSNOW

 

27 MAY 2024

 

TRAGIC SEVERE WEATHER continued this week from Texas to Michigan and points East as deadly TORNADOES, HAIL, HIGH WINDS and FLASH FLOODS ravished the region.  This season is the worst on record according to NOAA.  The Storm Prediction Center SPC has kept extremely busy saving lives.  Typical spring conditions have turned deadly as Canadian cold fronts and stationary fronts triggered extreme severe weather and flooding in areas of extremely saturated ground.  In the West, precipitation continues from the NW Cascades to the northern Rockies with heavy snow at high elevations of Idaho and Montana. Record late snows in Cascades and Rockies. Ski Industry reported 5th best season ever.  Note: thus far there are no named tropical storms - the latest ever May without a storm especially in a developing La Niña.  La Niñas have less vertical wind shear, thus convective storms can spin up easily.  Warm sectors in these extatropical lows are very warm/hot and humid ahead of the refreshing cold air.
See WPC for latest forecasts: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

The northern jet stream has moved north and weakened as the southern jet has intensified and moved north.  Australia and Argentina, Chile, and southern Brazil were hit by Antarctic air again.  Record May cold and snow developed in South Australia.  New Zealand had a strong westerly jet that brought 30-70 cm snows to the Alps.  Argentina set cold records after 8 feet S+ in Patagonia.  

Europe remained under a large low pressure - upper level trough that extended from Iceland to Algeria.  This had several surface lows from the SE Greenland Coast to the N Sea. As fronts and short waves moved through this convectively unstable system, thunderstorms and rains were triggered between ridges of high pressure that brought interludes of sunshine.  Temperatures were comfortable as central Europe was normal and Spain and Scandinavia were 4 to 12ºC above normal.   The UK was often under cold rains then warmed as the sun appeared. Record cold May in parts of Europe. 

CLEAR AIR TURBULENCE (CAT) again hit a Qatar flight over Turkey this week sending 12 to the hospital in Dublin.  The US Navy model had a small passing moderate CAT at 30% probability over the area.  Thunderstorms may have contributed.  The core of the subtropical jet was south of Turkey.

Eletroverse provides a comprehensive look at the  Urban Heat Island Effect which I have mentioned before. Published journal articles in the 1990s have discussed this.  Dr. Fred Goldberg also covers the UHE in his comprehensive lectures:
https://heartland.org/about-us/who-we-are/fred-goldberg/  

 
THE FOLLOWING TABLES show the observed temperatures at key points from Greenland to Vostok and the ECMWF 10-day snowfall forecasts at key points around the world where glaciers may be receding or growing.

OBSERVED TEMPERATURES and ECMWF 10-DAY SNOWFALL FORECASTS:

See:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/D4FSQPjmzrAwbS2q9.   


 You can see the magnitude of the storms on windy.com and in NOAA’s GOES satellite imagery: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G18&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

Temperature anomalies are tracked on:

 tropicaltidbits.com
see: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024021212&fh=6

The windy.com wave map shows the deep storms:

see:  https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,67.842,-1.230,3,i:pressure

Check out the albums below for detailed charts, satellite images, and observations:

Fall - Winter 2023:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6

 Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7  

Review of past logs:

Atmospheric Rivers dominate precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere from Alaska to Greenland and Europe.  These ARs are associated with intense cyclonic storms on the jet stream that dominate the weather.  Recall tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones (Lows) and anticyclones (Highs) control our weather.  Atmospheric River forecasts quantify the model computations of moisture flux from surface to 700 mb.  This flux controls the duration and intensity of precipitation.  Remember last winter when California had a record number of intense ARs that filled the “1000 yr“  drought’s reservoirs and extended Mammoth Mountain’s ski season into August 2023. Mammoth mountain is again accumulating heavy snows with a foot a day for 7 days in the last storm.  California is drought free today as new ARs are pounding the coast again this winter triggering flash floods and debris flows in this saturated ground.  The Colorado River Basin continues to benefit from these snowstorms from Colorado to Wyoming and Utah. Early season NRCS snow water equivalent SWE is running from 100 to 120% of normal.  The May 19, 2024 had from 98 to 250%.

NRCS Basin Data:  https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#version=169&elements=&networks=!&states=!&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=any&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=true&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=2&basinOpacity=75&basinNoDataOpacity=25&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&popupBasin=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8&parameter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&monthPart=E&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&useMixedPast=true&seqColor=1&divColor=7&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2020&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&relativeDate=-1&lat=43.728&lon=-104.797&zoom=5.0

Atmospheric River forecast by Marty Ralph’s team:

https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/

An important component of the Grand Solar Minimum is an increase in clouds due to its impact on our solar system’s magnetosphere and increased numbers of deep space cosmic rays penetrating our upper atmosphere and generating cloud condensation nuclei.  Clouds produce many complex phenomena ranging from cooling as solar radiation is reflected back to space, to surface warming as heat is retained at night and radiational cooling is reduced under stratus and in fog.   On a large scale temperature gradients control the winds and jet stream dynamics.  Clouds also impact the sea surface temperature SST which can have profound impacts on the Earth’s energy budget from the El Niño  and La Niña to Jet stream intensity and location.  NASA is now predicting a solar maximum of cycle 25 by January 2024 with some CMEs.  Like the one that gave us the beautiful Auroras last week.  Note: current climate models fail to adequately simulate clouds; hence, a serious limit to their long term predictions.  The primary critical impact of the GSM is late spring frosts and early fall frosts that limit the growing season.  it is difficult for long term models to predict these critical events accurately.

Volcanic activity has increased dramatically in November 2023 with two stratovolcanoes pumping huge amounts of volcanic ash into the stratosphere in the northern Hemisphere from Kamchatka, and the tropics from New Guinea.  Iceland’s seismic activity also increased significantly and resulted in a small volcanic eruption.  Stratospheric volcanic dust from volcanoes cause significant atmospheric cooling.  During the Little Ice Age there were many volcanoes associated with the Milankovitch Cycle that also contributed to the cooling.  Japan had a devastating earthquake in the last weeks.

During the winter, low clouds can keep the polar regions warmer, thus reducing the N-S temperature gradient that may lead to a weaker jet stream and a meridional flow.  This wavy N-S flow enhances the warm and cold sectors of storms and hence, extreme temperature swings. Thus far this winter we have a very wavy jet steam.  Have a look at my album’s examples.

The El Niño has ended.  However, last winter California had the intense winter weather associated with an El Niño. March SST observations show cold water below the thin warm El Niño water, thus indicating the likelihood of a la Nina forming soon(Feb 24). The  La Niña now intensifies.  NCAR scientists called for a severe winter.  Thus far, the Ontario-Hudson Bay 700 mb low has been pulling cold air south into the East much like last winter.  Note: the eastern N American low gyrates in the Jet, hence its impact varies. The West and High Plains are on the western edge of the deep cold air, hence, they have brief cold blasts and may benefit from the Pacific ARs heavy snow; however, they will enjoy somewhat warmer winter temperatures than the NE.  The Sudden Stratospheric Warming - SSW was predicted to pull extremely cold air into the entire US by mid-January and again in February and March.  This verified quite nicely in January - burr !  We’ll see how March goes.  It would appear that CHINA and Asia have been hit the hardest with severe cold weather this season and are now warming.


Dr. Valentina Zharkova, a solar expert from the Ukraine, talks about the sun’s impact on the el Niño in her interview below.  She reviews the Grand Solar Minimum and solar system impacts on climate variability.  

Valentina Zharkova’s interview at the end of this link provides a comprehensive review of the GSM physics from an expert in this field.  Dr. Zharkova reviews the physics, mathematics, and relationships of solar cycles, orbital mechanics, magnetosphere impacts, volcano cycles, and el Nino cycles related to the earth’s inclination…

https://electroverse.info/coldest-may-80n-greenland-gains-warmer-in-the-past-zharkova-interview/

Her primary web site:  https://solargsm.com/

 September recorded increases in SMB occurred +6 GT and +10 GT on 1 and 2 Sept respectively setting new records and again this week with 8-10 GT.  The accumulated SMB curve dropped to normal in December-February and is now below normal.  see:
 
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

and

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next3d,69.945,22.148,4,i:pressure,m:fDTafyg  
 

The jet stream is weakening with many short meridional - wavy N-S flows.    Short waves trigger storms as they become more frequent and more powerful.  Their wind shear can still spin up tornadoes in convective storms normally seen in spring and fall.  Omega blocking ridges control the speed of system movement around the hemisphere.

See:
https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?awp_0_40,34.089,20.303,4,i:pressure,m:ff3agyK  

see: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/  

Snow:
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,74.902,-40.649,4,i:pressure,m:fOdadW1

Rain:
 https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,next10d,51.944,-74.399,4,i:pressure


Japan and N Korea are warming a bit  with 10 - 5 cm of snow on the mountains of N Korea and Japan respectively with a record cold and snowy winter.  


TropicalTidbits.com  (forecast models) also gives you a look at the temperature departures from normal associated with these storms.  You can see the warm and cold sectors - the normal variations of global temperature.

The Himalayas had heavy snow on the peaks with most areas receiving 1-3 m throughout the winter.  The Tibetan Plateau is high ~3-5 km msl with new snow from the Himalaya to Shan ranges. Total snow on the ground on 9/3/23 still ranged from 0.5 to 5 m. This high elevation massif is a major factor controlling global weather patterns.  Its unusual snowfall this summer may have a significant impact.  The Hindukusch have had significant snows of 0.5-2.0 m again this winter.  Delhi set cold records, northern India and Pakistan had record snows in April and a deadly storm in early May.   

Southern hemisphere jet is intensifying as the sun marched north cooling the Antarctic.  It is now driving several large deep storms (976 to 936 mb) circling the Antarctic. Antarctic still has large areas in the interior below -40 to -65º C as measured in Windy’s satellite surface temperatures - even this January was reporting below -40ºC - a year without summer.   On 3 Sept the South Pole reported -74.9ºC (-102ºF) and -80ºC at Vostok…  Last week as the Antarctic begins cooling into Fall. Vostok broke -50ºC in December and -60 in March. This week the temperature again fell below -100ºF.   Howling blizzards are still circling the Antarctic coast with 30 to 50 kt winds near these storms.  The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea are 100% and 100% sea Ice covered respectively.  SEA ICE is now increasing rapidly.  McMurdo Base has been quite cold at -19 to -25ºC setting records and grounding aircraft in September.  Temperatures in the Antarctic are cooling, and remaining significantly below normal. This week McMurdo rose to -19º C. The Antarctic set a November record cold of -60ºC.  December and now January are setting new cold summer records: On Jan 4, 2024, the minimums at Concordia, JASE2007 AWS and Vostok were all, once again, below -40C, coming in at -40.8C, -40.2C and -40.1C, respectively.  The South Pole set its 3rd coldest March record at -60ºC this week.The sun is moving N, so the cold is settling in down under.  South Georgia Island had snows reaching 72-137 cm this week.  May is setting fall records.


Southern Africa set cold records and snow as deep cyclonic storms march across the South Atlantic pumping Antarctic Air northward.  Even Madagascar and Reunion Island set new cold records and had some snow in October 2023. Record snow fell in late October 2023.
 
AUSTRALIA  is turning cold as Antarctic highs set new cold records in April and May and are continuing to set cold records.  Sydney set a new cold summer record when it failed to reach 32ºC (89.6ºF) in December 2022. Australia’s Victoria and South Australia had some much below normal temperatures and cold records to -2.7ºC.  Western Australia cooled as the Antarctic waves moved north. Frosts developed in Queensland and the NW Territories - in subtropical Australia!  This week large areas of Australia continued to have heavy rain : Darwin 150-500 mm, N Queensland had 95-162 mm as tropical cyclones hit. However, much of Australia had significant rains: Canberra 50 mm. Alice Springs remained cool at 20-25 ºC. Normally we see 30 to 45ºC in the satellite surface temperatures on windy.com but Alice Springs remained in the 20s with a couple 40ºC days. The cloud top temperatures near Darwin were -80ºC in deep thunderstorms.  Last week a major Antarctic cold front moved northward over Australia triggering heavy rains up to Alice Springs.  South Australia is setting a cold May record.  Monthly cold records were also set in March.  Note: Jennifer Marohasy discusses Australian forecasts and observations every week.

JENNIFER MAROHASY’s latest: https://jennifermarohasy.com/2024/01/cyclone-jasper-bom-forecasting-getting-to-the-truth/


Note: 2023 was the first time since 1987 when  Australia’s mountains had snow on the ground all year.  The mean February temperature was 0.2ºC below normal making the summer mean temp 0.5ºC below normal. New Zealand continues to increase snows over the South Island with  1-2 m and heavy rain at low elevations on the West coast 57-260 mm.  Note: October 25-30, 2023 the interior of Australia had satellite surface temperatures from 10 to 31ºC - spring was here with a few cool highs..

 South America is cooling as cold fronts take temperatures 5-10ºC below normal. The Andes continued to build their glaciers (1-2 m). South American snow was at record levels.  Patagonia had significant snows and skiing in the Andes continued in November 2023. Surface temperatures reached -10ºC this week in Patagonia with 8 feet of snow.  Argentina and Brazil continued to cool in the south with the floods and antarctic air.    Antarctic cold fronts have triggered thunderstorms and locally heavy rains (100-300 mm) in the South of Brazil by Iguazu Falls in April.  The Iguazu region had heavy rains and floods in contrast to a record drought in the Amazon Basin.  However, the past month had heavy rain in the upper headwaters of the Rio Negro and Amazon Rivers.  Deep thunderstorms with top temperatures of -70 to -80ºC are helping mitigate the drought. These mesoscale convective complexes can dump 100-200+ mm.  Rio and Sao Paulo had flash floods and have remained wet.  The Porto Alegro lost over 126 people as extreme flash floods hit the region in May.  

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,-66.653,-60.776,4,i:pressure,m:NPaelA  

 

For those interested in understanding the current weather, I have documented events in the Albums showing model, satellite, radar, images.

New 2/26/24
Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7


EPOCH TIMES 5/1/24:
JOURNALIST REPORTS WITH REFEREED PROFESSIONAL JOURNALS:
Link:  Climate change article:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/ominous-rumblings-from-the-climate-change-cult-5553549

Earth’s Future -mass extinction history
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022EF003336

Temp as F(CO2)
https://www.ssb.no/en/natur-og-miljo/forurensning-og-klima/artikler/to-what-extent-are-temperature-levels-changing-due-to-greenhouse-gas-emissions/_/attachment/inline/5a3f4a9b-3bc3-4988-9579-9fea82944264:f63064594b9225f9d7dc458b0b70a646baec3339/DP1007.pdf

UK energy policy:

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/12/20/britains_net_zero_disaster_and_the_wind_power_scam_1000250.html

Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00367-6  .

Anthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect. Here we used the abrupt reduction in anthropogenic emissions observed during the COVID-19 societal slow-down to characterize the aerosol masking effect over South Asia. During this period, the aerosol loading decreased substantially and our observations reveal that the magnitude of this aerosol demasking corresponds to nearly three-fourths of the CO2-induced radiative forcing over South Asia. Concurrent measurements over the northern Indian Ocean unveiled a ~7% increase in the earth’s surface-reaching solar radiation (surface brightening). Aerosol-induced atmospheric solar heating decreased by ~0.4 K d−1. Our results reveal that under clear sky conditions, anthropogenic emissions over South Asia lead to nearly 1.4 W m−2 heating at the top of the atmosphere during the period March–May. A complete phase-out of today’s fossil fuel combustion to zero-emission renewables would result in rapid aerosol demasking, while the GHGs linger on.

Global temperatures, CO2 concentrations and oceans
Allan T. Emrén
Published Online:June 30, 2023pp 401-412.  https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276


Abstract
During the past 170 years, temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased. Published data on global temperature, CO2 data, and data on sea ice in the Arctic have been investigated. It is seen that support for human activities causing the observed increases is weak. It is found that the rate of change in CO2 concentration is controlled by global temperature rather than vice versa. To stop the growing concentration, the temperature has first to be decreased by about 1.4 K. This makes it questionable if attempts by humans to modify the global temperature, or the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will give any noticeable result. A correlation is found between seasonal variations in CO2 concentrations and Arctic sea ice quantities. The present increase in CO2 concentration and temperature is similar to one 55 million years ago, indicating that the Earth passed a 'tipping point' around 1750.
https://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276 
…….

WSJ: How Climate Policy Went Wrong:


https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-climate-policy-went-wrong-new-aerosal-study-energy-subsidies-carbon-tax-4e437371?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

A new documentary on climate: Well worth viewing —

Electroverse provides an excellent source of extremes not reported in the MSM:
Latest Extremes: 27 MAY 2024


Urban Heat Island Boosts Local Temperatures By 3C to 12C; + “Global Warming Will Have Been And Gone By 2030”
May 21, 2024 Cap Allon
Urban Heat Island Boosts Local Temperatures By 3C to 12C
Urban heat island enhancement of local temperatures can range from 3C to 12C depending upon geography and arid/tropical climate zones. “It seems the urban heat island effect is about an order of magnitude larger than greenhouse gas warming,” writes Ryan Maue, PhD. “Why isn’t this an existential threat?”
A study by 37 researchers from 18 countries has come to the conclusion that the global temperature record has been contaminated by urban warming biases.
The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming’ was accepted for publication in the scientific peer-reviewed journal Climate on Aug 28, 2023.

https://electroverse.info/urban-heat-island-boosts-local-temperatures-by-3c-to-12c-global-warming-will-have-been-and-gone-by-2030/ 


Thermometers located in towns and cities give warmer readings than their countryside counterparts. This is a widely accepted fact, one that even the IPCC concede.
While urban areas account for <4% of the global land surface, the majority of weather stations used in official global temperature calculations are sited in metropolis settings. For this reason, a growing number of scientists are questioning mainstream global warming contentions, asking “have they been skewed by the urban heat island (UHI) effect?”
In their latest report, the IPCC estimate that ‘urban warming’ accounted for less than 10% of the global temperature rise. This new study however contends that the UHI effect might explain up to 40% of the documented warming since 1850.


The lead author of the study, Dr. Willie Soon, of the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences, described the paper’s implications: “For many years, the general public has been assuming that the science on climate change is settled. This new study shows that this is not the case.”
Co-author, Prof. Ana Elias, Director of the Laboratorio de Ionosfera, Atmósfera Neutra y Magnetosfera (LIANM) at the Universidad Nacional de Tucumán in Argentina, added: “This analysis opens the door to a proper scientific investigation into the causes of climate change.”
Similar conclusions have been reached by other recent studies, including Connolly et al. (2023) and Katata et al. (2023).


The United States government even discuss the topic on their climate website heat.gov, writing: The term “urban heat island” refers to the fact that cities tend to get much warmer than their surrounding rural landscapes, particularly during the summer. This temperature difference occurs when cities’ unshaded roads and buildings gain heat during the day and radiate that heat into the surrounding air. As a result, highly developed urban areas can experience mid-afternoon temperatures that are 15°F to 20°F warmer than surrounding, vegetated areas.
For decades now, scientists have queried the placement of thermometer stations given this skewed warming in built-up areas. And recently, a nationwide U.S. study conducted by the Heartland Institute, ‘Corrupted Climate Stations: The Official U.S. Surface Temperature Record Remains Fatally Flawed’, appears to have validated those concerns.
The detailed report, compiled using satellite data and in-person survey visits to NOAA weather stations around the U.S., reveals that 96% of these official stations are corrupted by localized effects of urbanization, producing heat-bias due to their close proximity to asphalt, machinery, and other heat-producing, heat-trapping, or heat-accentuating objects.
Placing temperature stations in such locations violates NOAA’s own published standards, and strongly undermines the legitimacy and the magnitude of the official consensus on long-term warming trends, not in the United States but across the world. Officials in Paris, for example, have announced plans to remove 40% of the asphalt in order to “cool the city”.
“With a 96 percent warm-bias in U.S. temperature measurements, it is impossible to use any statistical methods to derive an accurate climate trend,” said Heartland Institute Senior Fellow Anthony Watts, the director of the study. “Data from the stations that have not been corrupted by faulty placement show a rate of warming in the United States reduced by almost half compared to all stations,” he added.
NOAA’s ‘Requirements and Standards for Climate Observations’ instructs that temperature data instruments must be “…at least 100 feet from any extensive concrete or paved surface”.
The new report reveals the above instruction is routinely violated and, according to H. Sterling Burnett, also of the Heartland Institute, is evidence that “the government’s official temperature record can’t be trusted.”
Watts continued: “If you look at the unperturbed stations that do adhere to NOAA’s published standard–ones that are correctly located and free of localized urban heat biases–they display about half the rate of warming compared to perturbed stations that have such biases. Yet NOAA continues to use the data from their warm-biased century-old surface temperature networks to produce monthly and yearly reports to the public on the state of the climate. … By contrast, NOAA operates a state-of-the-art surface temperature network called the U.S. Climate Reference Network. It is free of localized heat biases by design, but the data it produces is never mentioned in monthly or yearly climate reports published by NOAA for public consumption.
Man-made global warming appears to be mostly ‘man-made’.
Zero mainstream climate predictions have come to pass, and only with ‘adjustments’, ‘reanalysis’, and questionable ‘modelling’ does CO2-induced climate change even show itself.
But surely, if the effect of AGW is so large, is so damning, it shouldn’t require layer upon layer of very specific data processing to be able to see it. It should be easily detected with relatively simple analysis.
Below is one simple graphic to share with your local climate alarmist, courtesy of Dr. Matthew M. Wielicki. It reveals that there has been no increase in weather-related deaths since the year 2000 — the very opposite of a ‘global climate emergency’.
Another often rattled-off claim is that “climate change is making storms more frequent and intense”.
We’re now in late-May, in what the legacy media claims will be another ‘hottest year ever’ — so where are the storms?


“The Northern Hemisphere has yet to have its first named storm (e.g., tropical storm or hurricane) in 2024,” writes CSU meteorologist, Philip Klotzbach, who specializes in Atlantic basin hurricanes. “This is the first time since 1983 that the Northern Hemisphere has gone this late in the calendar year without a named storm.”
While the Urban Heat Island effect continues to support global temperatures, there has also been a natural component. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the planet has warmed quite significantly, largely due to an uptick in solar activity.
Unfortunately, this natural warming appears to be nearing its peak. This is the contention of Professors David Dilley, Valentina Zharkova, Habibullo Ismailovich Abdussamatov, and Willie Soon (to name just for four).



“Global warming will have been and gone by 2030,” so says Professor Dilley, because…
1) Both Atlantic and Pacific are entering the cooling phase of their cycles.
2) The low sunspot numbers of cycles 24 and 25 are expected to drop even lower in cycles 26 and 27.
3) The Suess de Vries cycle is also going into its negative phase.

Professor Valentina Zharkova has a similar timeline, but comes at things from a different analysis point. Differing analyses again are proposed by Professors Abdussamatov and Soon, though their timelines again fit, round-about.
As has long been stated, Solar Cycle 26 will hold the key (due to commence ≈2030).

Prof Dilley’s latest presentation is embedded below:

Spring Anomalies From BC To SoCal; HadCRUT Disappears 0.15C From 1940s Warming ‘Blip’ As Proposed In 2009; “Climate Crisis Is Making Turbulence Worse”; + New Poll Shows Youth Losing Faith In Climate Change
May 22, 2024 Cap Allon
Spring Anomalies From BC To SoCal
Environment Canada is issuing snow warning for British Columbia’s southern mountain passes.
The weather office issued special weather statements Tuesday for the Coquihalla Highway, Allison Pass, Okanagan Connector and Kootenay Pass, warning that an upper trough of low pressure will deliver Arctic air to the BC Interior this week.
Environment Canada says snowfall can be expected through Wednesday, particularly during the early hours. It is encouraging travelers planning to take the affected highways to be prepared and monitor snowfall conditions.
This part of the world has been enduring significant cold anomalies, stretching from NE Canada down through the majority of the Western US:


https://electroverse.info/spring-anomalies-from-bc-to-socal-hadcrut-disappears-0-15c-from-1940s-warming-blip-as-proposed-in-2009-climate-crisis-is-making-turbulence-worse-new-poll-shows-youth-losing-faith-in-clima/ 


HadCRUT Disappears 0.15C From 1940s Warming ‘Blip’ As Proposed In 2009
Back in 2009, overseers of the HadCRUT global temperature dataset wrote of “correcting” the “1940s warming blip” in emails that they later tried to hide from Freedom Of Information Act investigators, aka ‘Climategate‘.
“So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say, 0.15 degC, then this would be significant for the global mean — but we’d still have to explain the land blip.” … “I’ve chosen 0.15 here deliberately.” … “It would be good to remove at least part of the 1940s blip, but we are still left with ‘why the blip?’”
 Over the past 15 years, 0.15C of warmth has gradually been removed from the 1940s HadCRUT global temperature data, exactly as they had proposed back in 2009.
The 1940s have been artificially cooled to make the era less of a problem. They have “corrected” the data to align with their narrative.
What’s also noticeable is just how much warmth has been added to 21st century temperatures since 2008.
As explained by climate researcher Kenneth Richard, of notrickzone.com, the HadCRUT3 global temperature trend was recorded as +0.03C per decade during the global warming hiatus of 2000-2014 (Scafetta, 2022). This was increased to +0.08C per decade by HadCRUT4. With the latest HadCRUT5 adjusted up again to +0.14C per decade.
“So, within the last decade, a 15-year temperature trend has been changed from a pause to a strong warming. After all, when the observations don’t fit the narrative, it is time to change the observations,” writes Richard.



“Climate Crisis Is Making Turbulence Worse”. ???
On Tuesday, a 73-year-old British man died during turbulence on a Singapore Airlines flight from London.
According to the airline, the flight from London to Singapore encountered “sudden extreme turbulence” over the Irrawaddy Basin (Myanmar) at 37,000 feet (11,300m) about 10 hours after departure.
The pilot declared a medical emergency and diverted the aircraft to Bangkok.
The BBC was quick to blame gLoBaL wArMiNg for the tragedy, citing aviation consultant and former aircraft accident investigator, Tim Atkinson, who said that turbulence is becoming more common and severe because of climate change.
CBC News promotes the same idea: Climate change is making turbulence worse.
Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading, UK, told CBC that there is strong evidence that turbulence is increasing because of climate change, citing his own research, up 55% over the North Atlantic since 1979.
“Our latest future projections indicate a doubling or tripling of severe turbulence in the jet streams in the coming decades, if the climate continues to change as we expect,” said Williams.
Turbulence on flights can be caused by storms, mountains and strong air currents called jet streams, Williams noted. But the type of turbulence likely involved in today’s accident is called clear-air turbulence.


A Nature Climate Change paper claims that climate change is distorting the jet stream, making the powerful winds in the upper atmosphere even faster. “Based on these results and our current understanding, we expect record-breaking winds,” Tiffany Shaw, a professor of geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago, said in a news release last year.
Seeming to counter these claims however, a more recent analysis (2024), led by Research Professor of Meteorology, 
Joel Tenenbaum, finds: “When we add these new years [2021–2023] to the previous results, the statistical significance assigned to the now 22-year North Atlantic winter jet stream increase within the Global Aircraft Data Set (GADS) boxes disappears.”  —- less turbulence…


New Poll Shows Youth Losing Faith In Climate Change
The AGW Party are losing the support of the youth more than any other age demographic, the very demographic of people they appeal to the most since it requires their investment to continue the ruse.
A recent Monmouth University poll has found that the percentage of young Americans ages 18-34 who view climate change as a “serious problem” dropped from 67% in both their 2018 and 2021 poll to 50% in the latest poll.
Support for government action dropped a whopping 18 percentage points, from 80% in 2021 to 62% in 2024.
There was also a notable drop among those ages 35-54, but those 55+ remain unchanged.
The AGW Party is losing control.
It would appear the Covid exaggerations–let’s call them–of 2020 through 2021 have opened people’s eyes to the dangers of alarmist policy and blind appeals to authority. The youth are stirring first. This is fantastic news (assuming the poll is accurate).

Record May Cold Hits South Australia; Latest Snowfall In Decades At Snoqualmie; “UK’s Wet Winter Made 10x More Likely By Climate Change”; NASA Has A New AI-Driven Climate Modeling Tool; + Solar Quiet
May 23, 2024 Cap Allon
Record May Cold Hits South Australia
Many parts of South Australia have posted their coldest May mornings on record this week.
Wednesday was the chilliest day so far…
Kadina dipped to -0.8C/30.6F (breaking it’s previous May low of 0.1C set in 2021); Robe saw -2C/28.4F (beating its old record of -1.3C from 2006); Roseworthy to -1.4C/29.5F (breaking its low of -0.4c set during the May of 1967); Cummins shivered through -1.6C/29.1F (smashing it’s previous low of 0.8C set in 2023); and Wudinna posted -1.5C/29.3F (besting the -1.2C set May 21, 2022).


https://electroverse.info/record-may-cold-hits-south-australia-latest-snowfall-in-decades-at-snoqualmie-uks-wet-winter-made-10x-more-likely-by-climate-change-nasa-has-a-new-ai-driven-climate-modeling-tool-solar-qui/ 


Additional record monthly lows include the 0.3C/32.5F at Edinburgh (which broke the old 1985 record in books dating back to 1972), and the -2.6C/27.3F at Nuriootpa (which is 0.5C below the previous record dating back to 1996).
The state government activated a ‘Code Blue’ extreme weather warning in response to the freeze, covering the likes of Far West Coast, Copper Coast, Clare Valley, Riverland, Murraylands, Upper Spencer Gulf, Kangaroo Island, and Limestone Coast.
Minister for Human Services, Nat Cook, said: “These Code Blue responses help people experiencing homelessness who are most affected by extreme winter weather to remain warm and safe. I encourage rough sleepers, or anyone who knows a rough sleeper, to call Homeless Connect SA — these services are here to help.”



Latest Snowfall In Decades At Snoqualmie
Snoqualmie Summit Ski Resort received a shock snow dump on Wednesday.
Not only was the summit turned a fresh white, but snow even reached all the way down to the base of the resort, something that hasn’t happened in decades, according to the resort’s X account:
This is the area’s latest recorded snow in many moons, for many decades, likely one the latest ever.
Snoqualmie Pass did receive 9 inches on May 17, 2003, but that is still substantially earlier than this week’s falls.

“UK’s Wet Winter Made 10x More Likely By Climate Change”
The UK endured a wet and miserable winter, one that extended well-into spring. According to a group of climate change scientists, it was made worse by cLiMaTe ChAnGe.
The World Weather Attribution group found the persistent gloomy skies and rainfall during the winter months was made 10 times more likely and 20% wetter due to climate change.
Behind the study are scientists from institutions such as the Met Office, Met Eireann and Imperial College London. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed, but give the ‘respected’ institutions involved, I don’t see it having a problem on that front.
The researchers used weather data and climate models to draw their conclusions, comparing rainfall between today’s world and how the climate was before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale. Their modeling has led to the claim that the “intense storm rainfall” would have occurred once every 50 years in the pre-industrial period, now it is expected around every five years.
That’s already suspect wording, “intense storm rainfall”, and the use of ‘climate models’ also sends up a red flag (garbage-in, garbage-out) — but it gets worse. The “storminess” (?) of the extreme weather actually showed a decreasing trend in this study, which “highlights that more research is needed on how climate change might influence the severity and frequency of storms,” the researchers said.
Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, said: “Climate change is already making life shittier. Wetter winters are flooding farms, cancelling football matches, and overflowing sewage systems. Groceries are becoming more expensive and Brits holidaying in Europe are having to shelter from record-breaking heatwaves and wildfires.”
Dr Otto has been pushing the climate scare for many-a-year, it’s literally how she make her living. Unfortunately for her though, the data isn’t supportive.

Taking European wildfires, which Otto says ‘people are having to shelter from’, they are actually on the decline.
“We’ve actually seen a decline in the area burned by fires in the Mediterranean and across Europe more widely over the last couple of decades, in a way that doesn’t marry up with the rapidly changing risk of fires,” said Dr Matthew Jones, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia.

U.S. Ski Industry Reports 5th-Best Season On Record; “Deep, Drifting Snow” Keeps Beartooth Closed; The Suess de Vries Cycle; + Prepare
May 24, 2024 Cap Allon
U.S. Ski Industry Reports 5th-Best Season On Record
The National Ski Areas Association (NSAA) released its preliminary skier visit numbers for the 2023-24 season. It is reporting a total of 60.4 million visitors, which ranks as the fifth-best on record in NSAA books dating back to the 1978-79 season.
A cold and snowy spring delivered record-breaking totals to many Western slopes, and visitors lapped it up.
Despite alarmist calls of a diminishing US ski industry due to cLiMaTe ChAnGe, the opposite is playing out. Ski resorts for the fourth year in a row now have registered top-10 seasons for visitor numbers.
Checking with the records, this season, 2023/24, will rank as the 5th-best; last season, 2022/23, was the best-ever (also the snowiest season ever); 2022/21 rank as the 2nd-best; with 2020/21 coming 7th-best.
The US ski industry is booming.


https://electroverse.info/u-s-ski-industry-reports-5th-best-season-on-record-deep-drifting-snow-keeps-beartooth-closed-the-suess-de-vries-cycle-prepare/ 


Alarmist caterwaulings re. the future of US ski industry continue to be proved catastrophically wrong, as do their calls for an ice free Arctic, for the melting of Greenland, for sea level rise, for polar bear and honey bee extinctions, for the death of the Great Barrier Reef, for increased hurricane activity, and for flood and drought intensity. It falls on independent outlets to point out these catastrophic failures because of the establishment’s concerted effort to paint a narrative of climate doom.
The legacy media and scientific community have been captured. And dogma rules.


“Deep, Drifting Snow” Keeps Beartooth Closed
It’s still winter across the Rocky Mountain West. Spring is refusing to sprung in these parts. Two+ feet of snow settled Thursday, which stopped the Beartooth Highway from opening and also closed down many other Yellowstone routes.
The National Park Service (NPS) and the Montana Department of Transportation (MDOT) hoped to open the Beartooth Highway for Memorial Day weekend, but have announced that things have been delayed because of “deep, drifting snow.”
“It’s my understanding that they are seeing a lot of snow,” said Charity Burns, MDOT spokesperson.



The Suess de Vries Cycle
Unlike the familiar 11-year Schwabe cycle, the Suess de Vries cycle spans approximately 200 to 210 years and significantly influences long-term solar activity and Earth’s climate.
During its negative phases, the Suess de Vries reduces solar irradiance, for one, which leads to colder global temperatures on Earth. Increased cosmic ray flux during these times can boost cloud formation, further cooling the planet.
Historical periods of low solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum saw significant drops in temperatures. These multidecadal cold spells had profound impacts on agriculture, energy demand, and human life in turn.
Maunder Minimum: Between 1645 – 1715, Europe and North America experienced some of their coldest winters of the Little Ice Age. Historical documents describe the Thames River in London freezing over, leading to “frost fairs” on its surface. Crops failed, hemisphere-wide, leading to food shortages, significant hardship, and the untimely deaths of millions.
Dalton Minimum: From 1790 – 1830, cooler temperatures again disrupted normal life. Reports from this period highlight failed harvests and increased food prices, contributing to widespread poverty and hardship.

As the Suess de Vries cycle enters a new negative phase, it is proposed, by the likes of Professor David Dilley, that we will soon face a similar cooling trend, one expected to return the hardships endured in the past; shorter growing seasons, reduced yields, higher food prices, shortages, and an all-round hit on our modern day infrastructure.
Alarmists believe we’re grappling with climate unpredictability now, but just wait until the negative phase of the Suess de Vries cycle kicks in. Given humanity’s utter dependence on modern technology, just-in-time deliveries, and a global interconnectedness, the impacts of such cooling would be far-reaching and prove far-greater than the cold events of the past.
Brutally cold winters will take heating demand, for example, to breaking point, and there are few people that would know what to do in the event of the power dropping–and staying–out in the depths of a harsh winter.


Cold kills, the data are crystal clear on that: 10 to 1 vs the heat according to some studies; 20 to 1 (and more) by others.
A new paper reveals temperature-related mortality exceeded COVID-19 mortality by as much as 8% in parts of England between 2020 and 2022. Lead author of the study Dr. Eunice Lo, said: “The pandemic rightfully generated huge media attention with the spotlight on daily briefings announcing the latest death toll and public health interventions. Although many–and in some parts of the country more–people were dying from high and low temperatures [mostly low]. This largely went under the radar.”

Prepare
“Have three days’ worth of tinned food and water,” the UK government advises on a newly released website.
The “Prepare” website calls on all British households to stock up on bottled water, with a minimum supply of 3 liters of drinking water per person per day, but says 10 liters is recommended for more comfortable levels, for cooking and hygiene.

Greenland’s Record Ice Gains; Colder-Than-Average May In Europe; South America Freezes; + The Good News Burial
May 27, 2024 Cap Allon
Greenland’s Record Ice Gains
Summer is fast-approaching in the NH, the time of year when the overpowering forcing that is atmospheric carbon dioxide should be sending the Greenland ice sheet careening into the Atlantic ocean (or so goes the doctrine).
Instead, fierce chills and sizable snow dumps have delivered the island its largest late-May SMB gains in Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) records dating back to 1981:


https://electroverse.info/greenlands-record-ice-gains-colder-than-average-may-in-europe-south-america-freezes-the-good-news-burial/ 


Colder-Than-Average May In Europe
Much of Europe is on for a cool end to the month, one that will see many nations post colder-than-average Mays.
Parts of the UK are expecting freezing lows this week, rare for the time of year, as polar chills sweep the European continent, particularly Western and Central regions.
While across the channel, into France, forecasts of a cool and cloudy end to May will mean a colder-than-average month overall there.
Looking further ahead, Europe’s ‘blues’ are forecast to intensify well-into June (see below), and it’ll be the east’s turn to enjoy some ‘reds’ following the historic lows and snows that have dominated there in recent weeks (note: 348-hr run, subject to change):
The UK press, supported by latest GFS and ECMWF weather models, say lows of -5C (23F) are on the way next month. Such readings would be among Britain’s coldest June temperatures on record, perhaps the coldest-ever (see table below).
“In the first week of June parts of northern England and Scotland will feel more like February,” reads the Express.


South America Freezes
The historic cold and snow to hit Chile and Argentina is persisting.
The freeze is advancing north and all, into Paraguay, Bolivia, and even southern Brazil and Peru.
Low temperature records continue to fall in these parts. As per wunderground.com, Buenos Aires posted a min of 3C (37.4F) on May 25, breaking its previous May record.
“Wintry weather conditions are already being felt even though Argentina is still a month away from the cold season,” reports batimes.com.ar, adding that this prolonged spell is leading to agriculture and energy demand concerns across affected areas.
Snowfall in Buenos Aires also hasn’t been ruled out which, if it happens, would make for only be the third occurrence in weather books dating back to the 1800s, following the flakes of June, 1918 and July, 2007.



The Good News Burial
A rainy and very snowy spring has resulted in very positive US spring drought conditions — there’s very little of it.
Only 3% of the Lower 48 is in D2 (Severe Drought) and a minuscule 0.1% in D4 (Exceptional Drought). California is 99.9% blank. Growing regions look a-okay.
Such positive climate news is of course rug-swept by the legacy media and a captured scientific community — if it isn’t bad, it isn’t news.


Katalin Kariko‘s 2023 book ‘Breaking Through’ highlights one of the problems with modern academia, specifically at Penn State. WHERE’S THE R&D MONEY? Embedded below is a section of her book. “Unfortunately, this analysis is correct,” writes climatologist Judith Curry.

The AGW Party, aided by the spinless clowns in academia, seek to destroy humanity’s hard-earned prosperity. They want us cold and poor so that we are forced to go cap and accept all the state’s T&Cs in return for a loaf of bread and a few watts of energy.
Stand up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 MAY 2024

Spring continues to produce extreme severe weather in the US and cold in Russia, Turkey, Pakistan, Chile, Argentina southern Brazil and AustraliaGreenland even had a 1040-1054 mb high pressure with -34ºC according to Canada’s CMC and the ECMWF model.  This intensity of a High is typically seen in mid-winter.  The South again suffered deadly tornadoes, hail, and floods as Gulf moisture met Canadian cold air and the subtropical jet stream intensified the storms.  Interestingly, the Gulf sea surface temperature anomaly (from the 1991-2020 mean SST) was 0.0 to 0.5º above normal.  The Atmospheric Rivers pushed a very strong flux of moisture into Texas, LA, MS, AL. FL panhandle, and Georgia and points north, thus intensifying the storms. Severe Storms stretched from Oklahoma to Iowa looking at the lightning strike frequency on windy.com today.

Europe continued to have a variety of weather generated by a deep low pressure centered in the Bay of Biscay that extended from Iceland to N Africa.  Its short waves and cold fronts triggered thunderstorms and rain this week. The arctic cold in Russia moved into Turkey setting May records for cold and snowfall. Slovakia also set a new cold rector in May as a deep 980 storm over the Ob River Estuary pulled Arctic air over the region.  

Asia and southern Siberia warmed to 15 to 20ºC; however, Western Siberia and Russia had rare May snows and crop killing frosts.  Afghanistan had an extreme flash flood that killed over 300.

Deep storms (929-945 mb) circled the Antarctic dumping 1-2 m of snow on the mountains. Many central areas had -65 to -73ºC after setting records at Concordia and Vostok last week.  Australia had an Antarctic cold front that produced light snow in the Snowy Range, while New Zealand’s southern Alps had 50 to 140 cm of heavy snow.  Argentina had 8 feet of snow in Patagonia as Antarctic air moved north.  Brazil’s horrific deadly floods have slowed a bit as the Antarctic front weakened.  However, the forecast is for significant cold weather extending into central South America.  Chile set cold records and had heavy snow in the Andes  enabling some ski areas to open early.  Further south the snow forecasts dropped to 50 cm or less this week.  South Georgia Island had 72 to 137 cm.

Early season wild fires broke out in Alberta and Arizona this week.  Smoke from Alberta reached the mid-west.


THE FOLLOWING TABLES show the observed temperatures at key points from Greenland to Vostok and the ECMWF 10-day snowfall forecasts at key points around the world where glaciers may be receding or growing.

OBSERVED TEMPERATURES and ECMWF 10-DAY SNOWFALL FORECASTS:

See:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/D4FSQPjmzrAwbS2q9.   


 You can see the magnitude of the storms on windy.com and in NOAA’s GOES satellite imagery: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G18&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

Temperature anomalies are tracked on:

 tropicaltidbits.com
see: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024021212&fh=6

The windy.com wave map shows the deep storms:

see:  https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,67.842,-1.230,3,i:pressure

Check out the albums below for detailed charts, satellite images, and observations:

Fall - Winter 2023:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6

 Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7  

Review of past logs:

Atmospheric Rivers dominate precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere from Alaska to Greenland and Europe.  These ARs are associated with intense cyclonic storms on the jet stream that dominate the weather.  Recall tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones (Lows) and anticyclones (Highs) control our weather.  Atmospheric River forecasts quantify the model computations of moisture flux from surface to 700 mb.  This flux controls the duration and intensity of precipitation.  Remember last winter when California had a record number of intense ARs that filled the “1000 yr“  drought’s reservoirs and extended Mammoth Mountain’s ski season into August 2023. Mammoth mountain is again accumulating heavy snows with a foot a day for 7 days in the last storm.  California is drought free today as new ARs are pounding the coast again this winter triggering flash floods and debris flows in this saturated ground.  The Colorado River Basin continues to benefit from these snowstorms from Colorado to Wyoming and Utah. Early season NRCS snow water equivalent SWE is running from 100 to 120% of normal.  The May 19, 2024 had from 98 to 250%.

NRCS Basin Data:  https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#version=169&elements=&networks=!&states=!&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=any&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=true&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=2&basinOpacity=75&basinNoDataOpacity=25&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&popupBasin=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8&parameter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&monthPart=E&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&useMixedPast=true&seqColor=1&divColor=7&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2020&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&relativeDate=-1&lat=43.728&lon=-104.797&zoom=5.0

Atmospheric River forecast by Marty Ralph’s team:

https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/

An important component of the Grand Solar Minimum is an increase in clouds due to its impact on our solar system’s magnetosphere and increased numbers of deep space cosmic rays penetrating our upper atmosphere and generating cloud condensation nuclei.  Clouds produce many complex phenomena ranging from cooling as solar radiation is reflected back to space, to surface warming as heat is retained at night and radiational cooling is reduced under stratus and in fog.   On a large scale temperature gradients control the winds and jet stream dynamics.  Clouds also impact the sea surface temperature SST which can have profound impacts on the Earth’s energy budget from the El Niño  and La Niña to Jet stream intensity and location.  NASA is now predicting a solar maximum of cycle 25 by January 2024 with some CMEs.  Like the one that gave us the beautiful Auroras last week.  Note: current climate models fail to adequately simulate clouds; hence, a serious limit to their long term predictions.  The primary critical impact of the GSM is late spring frosts and early fall frosts that limit the growing season.  it is difficult for long term models to predict these critical events accurately.

Volcanic activity has increased dramatically in November 2023 with two stratovolcanoes pumping huge amounts of volcanic ash into the stratosphere in the northern Hemisphere from Kamchatka, and the tropics from New Guinea.  Iceland’s seismic activity also increased significantly and resulted in a small volcanic eruption.  Stratospheric volcanic dust from volcanoes cause significant atmospheric cooling.  During the Little Ice Age there were many volcanoes associated with the Milankovitch Cycle that also contributed to the cooling.  Japan had a devastating earthquake in the last weeks.

During the winter, low clouds can keep the polar regions warmer, thus reducing the N-S temperature gradient that may lead to a weaker jet stream and a meridional flow.  This wavy N-S flow enhances the warm and cold sectors of storms and hence, extreme temperature swings. Thus far this winter we have a very wavy jet steam.  Have a look at my album’s examples.

The El Niño continues to weaken yet it covers a large area; however, so far California is following the intense winter weather associated with an El Niño. The latest SST observations show cold water below the thin warm El Niño water, thus indicating the likelihood of a la Nina forming soon(Feb 24). The  La Niña is forming now (5/20/24).  NCAR scientists called for a severe winter.  Thus far, the Ontario-Hudson Bay 700 mb low has been pulling cold air south into the East much like last winter.  Note: the eastern N American low gyrates in the Jet, hence its impact varies. The West and High Plains are on the western edge of the deep cold air, hence, they have brief cold blasts and may benefit from the Pacific ARs heavy snow; however, they will enjoy somewhat warmer winter temperatures than the NE.  The Sudden Stratospheric Warming - SSW was predicted to pull extremely cold air into the entire US by mid-January and again in February and March.  This verified quite nicely in January - burr !  We’ll see how March goes.  It would appear that CHINA and Asia have been hit the hardest with severe cold weather this season and are now warming.


Dr. Valentina Zharkova, a solar expert from the Ukraine, talks about the sun’s impact on the el Niño in her interview below.  She reviews the Grand Solar Minimum and solar system impacts on climate variability.  

Valentina Zharkova’s interview at the end of this link provides a comprehensive review of the GSM physics from an expert in this field.  Dr. Zharkova reviews the physics, mathematics, and relationships of solar cycles, orbital mechanics, magnetosphere impacts, volcano cycles, and el Nino cycles related to the earth’s inclination…

https://electroverse.info/coldest-may-80n-greenland-gains-warmer-in-the-past-zharkova-interview/

Her primary web site:  https://solargsm.com/

 September recorded increases in SMB occurred +6 GT and +10 GT on 1 and 2 Sept respectively setting new records and again this week with 8-10 GT.  The accumulated SMB curve dropped to normal in December-February and is now below normal.  see:
 
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

and

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next3d,69.945,22.148,4,i:pressure,m:fDTafyg  
 

The jet stream is weakening with many short meridional - wavy N-S flows.    Short waves trigger storms as they become more frequent and more powerful.  Their wind shear can still spin up tornadoes in convective storms normally seen in spring and fall.  Omega blocking ridges control the speed of system movement around the hemisphere.

See:
https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?awp_0_40,34.089,20.303,4,i:pressure,m:ff3agyK  

see: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/  

Snow:
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,74.902,-40.649,4,i:pressure,m:fOdadW1

Rain:
 https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,next10d,51.944,-74.399,4,i:pressure


Japan and N Korea are warming a bit  with 5-20 cm of snow on the mountains of N Korea and Japan respectively after a record cold and snowy winter.  


TropicalTidbits.com  (forecast models) also gives you a look at the temperature departures from normal associated with these storms.  You can see the warm and cold sectors - the normal variations of global temperature.

The Himalayas had heavy snow on the peaks with most areas receiving 1-3 m throughout the winter.  The Tibetan Plateau is high ~3-5 km msl with new snow from the Himalaya to Shan ranges. Total snow on the ground on 9/3/23 still ranged from 0.5 to 5 m. This high elevation massif is a major factor controlling global weather patterns.  Its unusual snowfall this summer may have a significant impact.  The Hindukusch have had significant snows of 0.5-2.0 m again this winter.  Delhi set cold records, northern India and Pakistan had record snows in April and a deadly storm in early May.   

Southern hemisphere jet is intensifying as the sun marched north cooling the Antarctic.  It is now driving several large deep storms (976 to 936 mb) circling the Antarctic. Antarctic still has large areas in the interior below -40 to -65º C as measured in Windy’s satellite surface temperatures - even this January was reporting below -40ºC - a year without summer.   On 3 Sept the South Pole reported -74.9ºC (-102ºF) and -80ºC at Vostok…  Last week as the Antarctic begins cooling into Fall. Vostok broke -50ºC in December and -60 in March. This week the temperature again fell below -100ºF.   Howling blizzards are still circling the Antarctic coast with 30 to 50 kt winds near these storms.  The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea are 100% and 100% sea Ice covered respectively.  SEA ICE is now increasing rapidly.  McMurdo Base has been quite cold at -19 to -25ºC setting records and grounding aircraft in September.  Temperatures in the Antarctic are cooling, and remaining significantly below normal. This week McMurdo rose to -19º C. The Antarctic set a November record cold of -60ºC.  December and now January are setting new cold summer records: On Jan 4, 2024, the minimums at Concordia, JASE2007 AWS and Vostok were all, once again, below -40C, coming in at -40.8C, -40.2C and -40.1C, respectively.  The South Pole set its 3rd coldest March record at -60ºC this week.The sun is moving N, so the cold is settling in down under.  South Georgia Island had snows reaching 72-137 cm this week.  May is setting fall records.


Southern Africa set cold records and snow as deep cyclonic storms march across the South Atlantic pumping Antarctic Air northward.  Even Madagascar and Reunion Island set new cold records and had some snow in October 2023. Record snow fell in late October 2023.
 
AUSTRALIA has had a variety of summer weather and now is turning cold as Antarctic highs set new cold records in April and May and are continuing to set cold records.  Sydney set a new cold summer record when it failed to reach 32ºC (89.6ºF) in December 2022. Australia’s Victoria and South Australia had some much below normal temperatures and cold records to -2.7ºC.  Western Australia cooled as the Antarctic waves moved north. Frosts developed in Queensland and the NW Territories - in subtropical Australia!  This week large areas of Australia continued to have heavy rain : Darwin 150-500 mm, N Queensland had 95-162 mm as tropical cyclones hit. However, much of Australia had significant rains: Canberra 50 mm. Alice Springs remained cool at 20-25 ºC. Normally we see 30 to 45ºC in the satellite surface temperatures on windy.com but Alice Springs remained in the 20s with a couple 40ºC days. The cloud top temperatures near Darwin were -80ºC in deep thunderstorms.  Last week a major Antarctic cold front moved northward over Australia triggering heavy rains up to Alice Springs.  Monthly cold records were set in March.  Note: Jennifer Marohasy discusses Australian forecasts and observations every week.

JENNIFER MAROHASY’s latest: https://jennifermarohasy.com/2024/01/cyclone-jasper-bom-forecasting-getting-to-the-truth/


Note: 2023 was the first time since 1987 when  Australia’s mountains had snow on the ground all year.  The mean February temperature was 0.2ºC below normal making the summer mean temp 0.5ºC below normal. New Zealand continues to increase snows over the South Island with  1-2 m and heavy rain at low elevations on the West coast 57-260 mm.  Note: October 25-30, 2023 the interior of Australia had satellite surface temperatures from 10 to 31ºC - spring was here with a few cool highs..

 South America was warm, but cold fronts are predicted to take temperatures 5-10ºC below normal next week. The Andes continued to build their glaciers (1-2 m). South American snow was at record levels.  Patagonia had significant snows and skiing in the Andes continued in November 2023. Surface temperatures reached -10ºC this week in Patagonia with 8 feet of snow.  Argentina and Brazil continued to cool in the south with the floods and antarctic air.    Antarctic cold fronts have triggered thunderstorms and locally heavy rains (100-300 mm) in the South of Brazil by Iguazu Falls in April.  The Iguazu region had heavy rains and floods in contrast to a record drought in the Amazon Basin.  However, the past month had heavy rain in the upper headwaters of the Rio Negro and Amazon Rivers.  Deep thunderstorms with top temperatures of -70 to -80ºC are helping mitigate the drought. These mesoscale convective complexes can dump 100-200+ mm.  Rio and Sao Paulo had flash floods and have remained wet.  The Porto Alegro lost over 126 people as extreme flash floods hit the region in May.  

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,-66.653,-60.776,4,i:pressure,m:NPaelA  

For those interested in understanding the current weather, I have documented events in the Albums showing model, satellite, radar, images.

New 2/26/24
Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7

EPOCH TIMES 5/1/24:
JOURNALIST REPORTS WITH REFEREED PROFESSIONAL JOURNALS:
Link:  Climate change article:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/ominous-rumblings-from-the-climate-change-cult-5553549

Earth’s Future -mass extinction history
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022EF003336

Temp as F(CO2)
https://www.ssb.no/en/natur-og-miljo/forurensning-og-klima/artikler/to-what-extent-are-temperature-levels-changing-due-to-greenhouse-gas-emissions/_/attachment/inline/5a3f4a9b-3bc3-4988-9579-9fea82944264:f63064594b9225f9d7dc458b0b70a646baec3339/DP1007.pdf

UK energy policy:

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/12/20/britains_net_zero_disaster_and_the_wind_power_scam_1000250.html

Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00367-6   .

Anthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect. Here we used the abrupt reduction in anthropogenic emissions observed during the COVID-19 societal slow-down to characterize the aerosol masking effect over South Asia. During this period, the aerosol loading decreased substantially and our observations reveal that the magnitude of this aerosol demasking corresponds to nearly three-fourths of the CO2-induced radiative forcing over South Asia. Concurrent measurements over the northern Indian Ocean unveiled a ~7% increase in the earth’s surface-reaching solar radiation (surface brightening). Aerosol-induced atmospheric solar heating decreased by ~0.4 K d−1. Our results reveal that under clear sky conditions, anthropogenic emissions over South Asia lead to nearly 1.4 W m−2 heating at the top of the atmosphere during the period March–May. A complete phase-out of today’s fossil fuel combustion to zero-emission renewables would result in rapid aerosol demasking, while the GHGs linger on.

Global temperatures, CO2 concentrations and oceans
Allan T. Emrén
Published Online:June 30, 2023pp 401-412   https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276


Abstract
During the past 170 years, temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased. Published data on global temperature, CO2 data, and data on sea ice in the Arctic have been investigated. It is seen that support for human activities causing the observed increases is weak. It is found that the rate of change in CO2 concentration is controlled by global temperature rather than vice versa. To stop the growing concentration, the temperature has first to be decreased by about 1.4 K. This makes it questionable if attempts by humans to modify the global temperature, or the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will give any noticeable result. A correlation is found between seasonal variations in CO2 concentrations and Arctic sea ice quantities. The present increase in CO2 concentration and temperature is similar to one 55 million years ago, indicating that the Earth passed a 'tipping point' around 1750.


https://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276 
…….

WSJ: How Climate Policy Went Wrong:


https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-climate-policy-went-wrong-new-aerosal-study-energy-subsidies-carbon-tax-4e437371?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

A new documentary on climate: Well worth viewing —


Electroverse provides an excellent source of extremes not reported in the MSM:


Latest Extremes: 20 MAY 2024:

 


First 10-Days Of May In European-Russia The Coldest In History, As Unprecedented May Snow Hits Moscow; + “Good News: There Is NO Climate Crisis”
May 14, 2024 Cap Allon
First 10-Days Of May In European-Russia The Coldest In History
According to the head of Russia’s national meteorological service, Roman Vilfand, the first 10-days of May in the European section of the country (all 3.969 million km² of it) will be recognized as “the coldest in the history of observations.”
As reported yesterday, this region has endured three separate Arctic onslaughts so far this month, breaking long-standing May temperature records on each occasion.


https://electroverse.info/first-10-days-of-may-in-european-russia-the-coldest-in-history-as-unprecedented-may-snow-hits-moscow-good-news-there-is-no-climate-crisis/

Vilfand said the area has faced an onslaught of brutal air masses crashing south from the Arctic Ocean, rare for the time of year, which has seen the air temperature across western Russia hold some 10C below climatic norms.
This unprecedented May cold has forced Gazprom (a state-owned multinational energy corporation) to step up its energy supply. As per reports, consumers have been supplied record volumes of gas this month, levels comparable to winter.
“For ten days in a row –from May 3 to May 12– gas supplies from the Unified Gas Supply System of Russia (USG) have been higher than the previous record value,” the company said in a statement — the old record of UGSS 827.6 million cubic meters of gas (set on May 5, 2022) has been bested by a new “absolute peak … of 904.8 million cubic meters”.
The resulting frost damage to crops is also of concern, and was discussed in Moscow this week.
Again as touched on yesterday, Russia’s famed growing region, “Black Earth Belt,” has been hit hard, with monthly record low temperatures sweeping the area and large scale crop losses reported.
Ministries here have declared a state of emergency, including in the central regions of Lipetsk, Voronezh and Tambov where lows of -6C (21.2F) have been reported, unprecedented for May.
Rare snow has also been falling in these parts, even in Moscow.
On May 9, Russia’s capital experienced snow for the very first time (for the date) in its climatic history. Around 5 cm (2 inches) settled in various parts of the city, according to official data, never before seen in Moscow’s 145-year-old meteorological record.

That day’s weather was remarkably cold, said Vilfand, akin to a March day. With an average temperature of just 1.7C (35F), last Thursday marked Moscow’s coldest May 9 since 1972.
Freezes and unseasonable snows have ravaged much of eastern European of late, including Ukraine, “where spring frosts have impacted the country’s apple production,” of one, said Volodymyr Gurzhiy of Ukrainian apple exporter USPA Fruit.
“This year, the spring brought several surprises in Ukraine at once,” said Gurzhiy: “an early spring with long-lasting flowering, [then] late frosts with inactive pollination of flowers by bees due to the low temperatures. … these circumstances have led to a negative impact on the harvest. Orchards in central Ukraine and Podillya are the most affected. We forecast the greatest losses here,” Gurzhiy continued, “in some places up to 30 or 40 percent.”
“The weather forecasts are still unfavorable. Unfortunately, frost is still possible in some regions.” Gurzhiy then speaks to bigger concerns: “We cannot forget about the war … there are great risks due to a lack of workers for a timely harvest.”
Cold-related losses have also been noted in Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Germany — to name just five.


While out east, to the Far East, China is also enduring cold- and wet-weather woes.
In the news today is China’s $4 billion lychee harvest, which has been decimated by rain, hail and unpredictable freezes.


The nation is the world’s largest producer and consumer of the fruit, and a significant exporter. Half of China’s lychees are grown in the southern province of Guangdong, where the harvest has fallen foul of a wild swings between extremes this year, namely record low temperatures, but also heavy spring rains and bursts of hail. As a consequence, prices have jumped.
China produced 3.1 million tons last year, but this year’s harvest could be barely half that at 1.65 million, warned Chen Houbin, a professor at South China Agricultural University, who has studied the fruit for nearly three decades.
China has big plans to boost homegrown produce so as to reduce reliance on imports and bolster its food security. The late-Feb freeze alone reduced production of crops like cucumbers and capsicums by 20%, with oilseeds down 30%.
Additionally, heavy snow impacted greenhouses and livestock production in provinces such as Shandong and Henan, while low temperatures and rain affected winter wheat across southern China.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences deployed 40 teams of experts across the country to assess and minimize damage to spring vegetable crops. The teams were there to monitor weather changes as well as provide technical advice to farmers.


“Good News: There Is NO Climate Crisis”
“There is NO Climate Crisis,” says a coalition of 1,600 actual scientists in a recent letter to the California Air Resources Board.
In a timely rebuttal to Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s meeting with Pope Francis at the Vatican on May 15 – 17, where the pair will discuss the standard fare of “rising temperatures” and “climate resilience,” these scientists say that “California is in no danger of unusual drought” with the state’s annual precipitation fluctuating greatly over the last 150 years, “with only a slight decrease.”
The scientists go on to insist that carbon dioxide is beneficial to Earth, and also that California has record low levels of air pollution.
Below is the one-page summary letter sent by the CO2 Coalition, in which is a link to a 16-page report detailing the evidence.
Dear Sir or Madam:
Good news: There is NO climate crisis in California.
This claim was verified by the scientific data that were compiled by the CO2 Coalition, a nonprofit organization with the goal of determining and propagating the facts regarding carbon dioxide (CO2) and the climate (CO2 Coalition, 2024).
The key findings provided below stand in contrast to the climate crisis claims made in the March 1, 2024, California Priority Climate Action Plan (Priority Climate Action Plan, 2024) and the California Climate Disclosure Rules (Senate Bills No. 253 and No. 261) (Chamber of Commerce of the United States of America, 2024).
More details can be found in the attached letter and appendix.

Modest warming of California is beneficial and not a cause for concern: Globally, more people have died from the cold than from the heat since 2000.
Increase in agricultural production: The combination of lengthened growing seasons and increased CO2 concentrations has contributed to this increase.
CO2 is essential: Plants need CO2, sunlight, water, and nutrients from the soil to produce food and oxygen, both of which are essential for human and animal lives.
CO2 is beneficial: Exposing plants to higher concentrations of CO2 increases their growth, food production, and drought-resistance; and greens the Earth.
…….
Heavy Mid-May Snow Hits Turkey; Slovakia’s Record May Cold; It’s A Cult; + The Sun Unleashes An X8.7…
May 15, 2024 Cap Allon
Heavy Mid-May Snow Hits Turkey
Parts of Turkey have been hit by rare May snow, including the western province of Kocaeli as well as the Black Sea Region.
The week commenced with plunging temperatures, and by Tuesday, heavy, blowing snow was clipping the higher elevations.
In the mountains of Bolu province, for example, the snowfall was substantial.
The plateaus of Trabzon city were also turned white:


https://electroverse.info/heavy-mid-may-snow-hits-turkey-slovakias-record-may-cold-its-a-cult-the-sun-unleashes-an-x8-7/


The snow continued through Wednesday morning, in Kastamonu province among others, conditions that prompted the country’s General Department of Meteorology to issue a “yellow” level of weather danger in some six provinces.
As with Russia to the north –which has just endured its coldest first 10-days of May in 145-years of record keeping— Turkey is enduring a historically cold and snowy start to the month, chills that aren’t forecast to subside until at least the weekend.
Below is a look at 2m temperature anomalies for the Middle East (with Turkey to the north, Africa to the west):
Slovakia’s Record May Cold
Slovakia has just set a new unofficial low temperature record for the month of May.
The -11C (12.2F) measured at Veľká Poľana on May 13 is the country’s coldest-ever reading in May (below 1,000m/3,280ft).
The Veľká Poľana station is not part of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) network and so isn’t officially recognized.
Slovakia’s official <1,000m record remains the -8.8C (16.2F) set at Oravská Lesná on May 15, 1954. While its lowest May temperature at high-altitude is the -18.3C (-0.9F) set at Lomnický štít (2,645m / 8,678ft) on May 20, 1952

Chile’s Capital In The Midst Of “Longest Cold Spell Ever Recorded” As South America Braces For Antarctic Outbreak; Australia’s Coldest April Since 2015; No Climate Emergency; + The X-Flares Continue
May 16, 2024 Cap Allon
Chile’s Capital In The Midst Of “Longest Cold Spell Ever Recorded” As South America Braces For Antarctic Outbreak
Ever since the rare snows of last week, Santiago, Chile has been having a historically-cold time of it.
“Since 1950 onwards (i.e., in the last 74 years), we have not had such an intense cold spell in May,” said Raul Cordero, Climatologist at the University of Santiago.
“We have had days with even lower temperatures, but now we have a succession of eight days with temperatures well-below typical values. So, we are in the presence of the longest cold spell ever recorded in the capital, at least for the autumn months.”
The chill will persist into Thursday, with Cordero forecasting 34F (1.1C) in the central Santiago area — a historic feat.
The swing was abrupt. Within mere days of summer’s heat subsiding, the mountains near the capital were hit by heavy snow. “May used to be a super autumn month,” said student Francisca Vergara, “and now we go from extremely hot to extremely cold.”


https://electroverse.info/chiles-capital-in-the-midst-of-longest-cold-spell-ever-recorded-as-south-america-braces-for-antarctic-outbreak-australias-coldest-april-since-2015-no-climate-emergency-the-x-flares-contin/

  
The Chilean government has declared a “code blue” in six regions across central and south-central Chile, which frees up extra resources to help those living on the streets survive the extreme cold.
Looking ahead, the fierce, early-season freeze is forecast to expand and intensify as the month of May progresses. Below is a look at May 25 and 26, as per latest GFS runs.
Note the cold grips far more than just Chile, with the majority of the South American continent painted shades of blue, pink and purple — a true Antarctic Outbreak:

Australia’s Coldest April Since 2015
The Bureau of Meteorology’s calls for the ‘hottest autumn/winter on record’ continue to embarrass. Last month was Australia’s coldest April in almost a decade–and that’s despite the BoM using those hotter electronic temperature probes).
Contrary to the AGW Party promise of ‘always warmer’, Australia registered a cooler-than-average April last month (against the 1951-1980 average and all), its coldest since 2015, and one that rivals the Aprils of the 1960s and 1970s.
A mass of high pressure centered to the south of WA was the cause of the cold which saw southerly winds funnel polar air northward over the entire continent — a natural forcing that the establishment is all too happy (desperate, in fact) to promote:


No Climate Emergency
Earth science professor Dr. Matthew M. Wielicki asks how can there be a climate emergency or a climate crisis or climate breakdown when…
1) The number of hydrological, meteorological, and climatological disasters have decreased since 2000:
2) Deaths associated with these events have decreased since 2000:

3) Costs associated with these disasters have decreased since 2000:

“Claims of a climate emergency are unscientific propaganda for wealth, power, and control,” concludes Dr. Wielicki.

The X-Flares Continue
On May 14, Carrington-class AR3664 produced an X8.6-class solar flare, the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25. The corresponding Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) wasn’t Earth-directed, thankfully, and was instead aimed at Mars.
NASA models expect the CME to hit the Red Planet on May 17, likely sparking global auroras. The Perseverance rover captured the giant sunspot on Wednesday through the dusty air of Jezero Crater:


Frozen Turkey; Rare May Snow Hits South Korea; Cold Front To Drop Snow On Aussie Alps; Florida’s Heat Was NOT Made “5x More Likely Due To Climate Change”; + The Solar Storm Was Indeed ‘Great’
May 17, 2024 Cap Allon
Frozen Turkey
Various regions of Turkey have been returned to winter this week, as anomalous lows and heavy snow sweep the nation.
In northern Turkey, the Demirkapı Plateau, renowned for its lush flora at this time of year, was transformed into a sea of white.
Heavy snow has also hit the Yedigöller (seven lakes) region, encompassing Dipsiz Lake, İkiz Lake, Kara Lake, Sarıçiçek Lake, Pirömer Lake, Aygır Lake and Balıklı Lake. Roads became impassable here, prompting large-scale snow-clearing operations.


https://electroverse.info/frozen-turkey-rare-may-snow-hits-south-korea-cold-front-to-drop-snow-on-aussie-alps-floridas-heat-was-not-made-5x-more-likely-due-to-climate-change-the-solar-storm-was-indeed-great/


Substantial accumulations extended to eastern and central regions and all, to Erzurum, Ardahan, Amasya, Kars, Muş, Karabük, Çankırı, Kastamonu, Bolu, Düzce, Sakarya and Van.
On the eastern mountain of Ağrı, nine Russian climbers were forced to abandon their accent due to biting cold and blizzard conditions.
Renewed excitement has hit Turkey’s ski areas. In Erzurum, for example, home to Palandöken resort, the surprise return of winter has re-awoken the slopes, as it has across the Kars’ Sarıkamış district, as well as Bolu’s Kartalkaya.
This part of the world can expect another cold day Friday, before a gradual return to climatic norms as the cold shifts east.


Rare May Snow Hits South Korea
Gangwon Province, South Korea registered more than a foot of snow on Thursday, prompting an unprecedented mid-May snow advisory.

Mount Seorak had logged 42 cm (16.5 inches) by 6 AM Thursday, with Hyangro Peak posting similar totals.
In response, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) issued a heavy snow advisory:This marked the very first time such an advisory has been issued in mid-May (or later) since the roll-out of the warning system back in 1996, and only the second-time in the month of May (the first occurrence being in 2021).
The advisory was issued across the mountainous regions of Gangwon, becoming effective wherever 5+ cm (2+ inches) of snow was forecast; it cautioned drivers to use extra precautions on the roads given the reduce visibility and treacherous conditions.


Cold Front To Drop Snow On Aussie Alps
Australia’s impending cold front will drop mountain thermometers below freezing and deliver snow to Alpine regions.
Following the historically early flurries back in April, which blanketed ski resorts in New South Wales and Victoria, another round of cold and snow is approaching from the south this week, readying the Aussie slopes for their openings in early-June.
Overall, it’s been a cold and wet start to autumn down under, with a host of monthly low temperature records falling. Even according to ‘official’ BoM data, April was a colder-than-average month, even against the cool 1951-1980 reference period and all.
As per a recent snowbrains.com forecast:
“A cold front over the Southern Ocean is bringing a strong southerly change to SE Australia on Friday. It is expected to reach the far north coast of New South Wales by Saturday afternoon and a trough of low pressure is forecast to develop over the Tasman Sea. The southerly airstream between the high and the trough over the Tasman is expected to be maintained through to next week. Snow is expected to fall from around 1,300-1,400 meters (4,265-4,593 feet) on Friday and Saturday.”


Florida’s Heat Was NOT Made “5x More Likely Due To Climate Change”
Tampa Bay Chief Meteorologist and self-proclaimed ‘Climate Specialist’ Jeff Berardelli believes that “we now have the ability to diagnose if climate change influenced a given event” and that human prosperity (i.e. CO2 emissions) made South Florida’s recent ‘heat index’ record of 115F “at least 5X more likely”:
The Year 1997
Alarmists, I thought 1997 was your hottest year ever, not 2023?
1997: “Warmest Year of The Century” = 16.92C (62.45F)
2023: “Hottest Year On Record” = 14.98C (58.96F)
In response to the above revelation –that 1997 was warmer than 2023– NOAA felt the need to send @DawnTJ90 a 7,758-word ‘splainer. Embedded below is a short section, in which NOAA admit to adjusting the data, specifically to cooling the past:


The Solar Storm Was Indeed ‘Great’
Situated about halfway between Tonga and Australia, the Pacific island of New Caledonia is too close to the equator for Northern or Southern Lights.
Yet on May 10, 2024, this happened:
 
Winter Prolonged In Alaska; Australia’s Cold And Snow; Chile’s Weather Agency Got It Dead Wrong As South America Freezes; + Illogic
May 20, 2024 Cap Allon
Winter Prolonged In Alaska
A dipping jet stream has prolonged winter across the likes of Unalaska and the Aleutian region.
According to Rick Thoman, climate specialist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks:
“Over the last six weeks, say, the Aleutians have been on the north side of the prevailing storm track, and so on the cold side of the storms. If the jet stream was say 500 miles farther north, it would still be stormy, but it wouldn’t be nearly as cold.”


https://electroverse.info/winter-prolonged-in-alaska-australias-cold-and-snow-chiles-weather-agency-got-it-dead-wrong-as-south-america-freezes-illogic/ 


It’s been a harsh spring for the region, for Alaska in general, following what was a historically cold and snowy winter.

On May 8 even, the Anchorage International Airport received about an inch of snow. And as explained by Thoman, “there’s only been two other occurrences since the mid 1950s when there’s been more snow than that [this late in the year].”

These latest accumulations have edged the city to within an inch of its all-time snowfall record (of 134.5 inches).

Australia Shivers
Much of eastern Australia is shivering as a cold polar air mass continues to hold above the coast.
Canberra registered -3.9C (25F), while Sydney suburbs woke to anomalies of 7C – 9C (44.6F – 48.2F) Monday morning.
The cold has also extended to the NSW Tablelands and the Mackay and North Queensland areas. Glen Innes, on the NSW Northern Tablelands, saw -4.2C (24.4F). While an unusual low of 5.9C (42.6F) was logged at Georgetown, QLD, at 4:38am Monday morning. A host of freezing lows were also observed across Queensland, including at Charleville (-0.3C), Roma (-0.4C) and Applethorpe (-0.5C).
Liawenee in Tasmania dipped to -5.3C (22.5F).
Thredbo was the coldest ski resort with -3C (26.6F) on Monday (after registering -6.4C (20.8F) on the previous two mornings).
It was a cold one overnight across southeastern, but freezing temps were also posted up north. Alice Springs logged a low of -0.3C (31.5F), the first freeze of the year in the Northern Territory.
The cold theme won’t change much as the new week progresses, but will ease a little by mid-week:
The snow has also returned, sending 2024 snow extent (for Australia and NZ) in a vertical:

Chile’s Weather Agency Got It Dead Wrong As South America Freezes


Earlier in the year, the Chilean Meteorological Directorate (DMC) released its official forecast for March, April and May.
Regarding temperature, the DMC stated that overnight minimums would be above average for most of the country, with the daytime maximums holding warmer than normal throughout Chile, without exceptions:
The DMC isn’t alone with their warm-bias.
All official weather agencies and bureaus are blindly extrapolating 2023’s natural warming into the future. But this warming is only transitory, caused by the now waning trifecta of El Niño, Solar Max and Tonga’s submarine volcanic eruption.
These mainstream foretellings of ‘ever-hotter’ are now falling flat on their faces, from the BOM’s, to NOAA’s, to the DMC’s.
Speaking to the latter, Chileans, rather than enjoying ‘a warmer than normal autumn, without exceptions’ are instead bundling up for their coldest autumn in more than 70 years, one brought about by a fierce, out-of-season Antarctic front that has parked itself over much of the South American continent.
Temperatures broke records along the coast of Chile and in Santiago last week, making for the country’s coldest May since 1950.
A succession of rare polar air masses is continuing to advance up the continent, driving the mercury below the freezing mark in many locales — a reality that legacy outlets such as the AP wants us to believe is linked to global warming.
“The past few days have been one of the longest [cold fronts] ever recorded and one of the earliest ever recorded,” said Raul Cordero, a climatologist at Santiago University. “Typically the incursions of cold air from the Antarctic that drive temperatures below zero occur from June onwards, not so much in May.”
Chile’s government has been forced to issue cold weather alerts for most of the country and it has ramped up assistance for homeless people. “Winter came early,” said Mercedes Aguayo, a street vendor hawking gloves and hats in Santiago.
This recent Antarctic Outbreak has also swept Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia and even southern Brazil.
Energy demand soared across many parts of Argentina, for example, with distributors cutting supplies to dozens of gas stations and industries in several provinces to avoid outages, the country’s main hydrocarbon company, CECHA, said.
Historical snow blanketed the peaks of the Andes and even settled Santiago too, leading to power outages in many areas.
For skiers and riders, it isn’t typical to enjoy shredding while also taking in the fall foliage. However, that is now the reality at two popular Chilean ski resorts.
As reported by unofficialnetworks.com, Corralco Resort de Montaña surprised everyone by opening early on May 18 (link below). Nevados De Chillán also opened for some pre-season skiing and riding on May 18, thanks to “the substantial early snowfall”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


13 MAY 2024

 

EXTREME weather continued this week as millions of Americans were under severe thunderstorm and flood warnings.  Over 315 tornadoes were reported during the past 2 weeks.  It has been another horrific spring week.  From Texas to Georgia and SC heavy 3-7 inch rains are predicted again this week.  Mountains of the West had more snow, even Argentina’s Patagonia had heavy snow - looks like an early ski season there.  This next week the West Coast finally dries out.  

 

Europe was cold from Spain to Russia with new records set in Spain and Russia.  Eastern and southern Siberia warmed to the 10s and 20sºC.  European Russia in the major grain producing regions had its second hard freeze with temperatures to -5ºC.  This is creating a “major grain growing emergency”. The sunny side of the Alps in Slovenia warmed as Kredarica’s snow depth dropped to 270 cm.

 

C5 CME hits earth with wide spread power grid impacts and auroras to lower latitudes.     Our neighbor’s daughter took some beautiful aurora photos from Loveland Pass.  See the Album.  The Aurora was seen in all 50 states ! Auroras illuminated cacti, palm trees, pyramids, and Caribbean beaches.
All 50 U.S. states were privy to the display, even Hawaii.
“I couldn’t believe it,” said Nā‘ālehu resident Brenda Trowbridge, who captured the below images with a 3-second exposure on her iPhone. “It was a beautiful purple and greenish tinge visible to the naked eye for about 5 minutes,” she wrote on social media.

 

AFGHANISTAN suffered extreme flash floods with >300 dead.  Brazil’s Porto Alegro and Rio Grande de sol continued flooding with over 150 dead.  Columbia and Brazil’s Porto Alegro region will have more heavy rain this week.

 

The Southern Hemisphere continued to cool with Argentina much below normal and heavy Patagonian Snows.  Rare snow covered Santiago, Chile. Over 3 m of snow are predicted just east of Santiago in the Andes this week.  Australia continued to have Antarctic fronts and a 1030 mb High in the Bight.  Deep 929-970 mb storms circled the Antarctic,  where Concordia hit a new record of 10 days below -70ºC (-94ºF).  Thwaites Glacier continued to get 1-1.5 m snows.

 


THE FOLLOWING TABLES show the observed temperatures at key points from Greenland to Vostok and the ECMWF 10-day snowfall forecasts at key points around the world where glaciers may be receding or growing.

 

OBSERVED TEMPERATURES and ECMWF 10-DAY SNOWFALL FORECASTS:

 

See:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/D4FSQPjmzrAwbS2q9.   

 


 You can see the magnitude of the storms on windy.com and in NOAA’s GOES satellite imagery: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G18&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

 

Temperature anomalies are tucked on:

 

 tropicaltidbits.com
see: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024021212&fh=6

 

See details below in CURRENT EXTREMES: 11 March 2024

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-11-13&id=0927f461-b5cc-4bbf-8f64-04383cf830f2

 

The windy.com wave map shows the deep storms:

 

see:  https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,67.842,-1.230,3,i:pressure

 

Check out the albums below for detailed charts, satellite images, and observations:

 

Fall - Winter 2023:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6

 

 Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7  

 

Review of past logs:

 

Atmospheric Rivers dominate precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere from Alaska to Greenland and Europe.  These ARs are associated with intense cyclonic storms on the jet stream that dominate the weather.  Recall tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones (Lows) and anticyclones (Highs) control our weather.  Atmospheric River forecasts quantify the model computations of moisture flux from surface to 700 mb.  This flux controls the duration and intensity of precipitation.  Remember last winter when California had a record number of intense ARs that filled the “1000 yr“  drought’s reservoirs and extended Mammoth Mountain’s ski season into August 2023. Mammoth mountain is again accumulating heavy snows with a foot a day for 7 days in the last storm.  California is drought free today as new ARs are pounding the coast again this winter triggering flash floods and debris flows in this saturated ground.  The Colorado River Basin continues to benefit from these snowstorms from Colorado to Wyoming and Utah. Early season NRCS snow water equivalent SWE is running from 100 to 120% of normal.  

 

NRCS Basin Data:  https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#version=169&elements=&networks=!&states=!&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=any&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=true&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=2&basinOpacity=75&basinNoDataOpacity=25&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&popupBasin=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8&parameter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&monthPart=E&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&useMixedPast=true&seqColor=1&divColor=7&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2020&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&relativeDate=-1&lat=43.728&lon=-104.797&zoom=5.0

 

Atmospheric River forecast by Marty Ralph’s team:
https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/

 


An important component of the Grand Solar Minimum is an increase in clouds due to its impact on our solar system’s magnetosphere and increased numbers of deep space cosmic rays penetrating our upper atmosphere and generating cloud condensation nuclei.  Clouds produce many complex phenomena ranging from cooling as solar radiation is reflected back to space, to surface warming as heat is retained at night and radiational cooling is reduced under stratus and in fog.   On a large scale temperature gradients control the winds and jet stream dynamics.  Clouds also impact the sea surface temperature SST which can have profound impacts on the Earth’s energy budget from the El Niño to Jet stream intensity and location.  NASA is now predicting a solar maximum of cycle 25 by January 2024 with some CMEs.  Note: current climate models fail to adequately simulate clouds; hence, a serious limit to their long term predictions.  The primary critical impact of the GSM is late spring frosts and early fall frosts that limit the growing season.  it is difficult for long term models to predict these critical events accurately.

 

Volcanic activity has increased dramatically in November 2023 with two stratovolcanoes pumping huge amounts of volcanic ash into the stratosphere in the northern Hemisphere from Kamchatka, and the tropics from New Guinea.  Iceland’s seismic activity also increased significantly and resulted in a small volcanic eruption.  Stratospheric volcanic dust from volcanoes cause significant atmospheric cooling.  During the Little Ice Age there were many volcanoes associated with the Milankovitch Cycle that also contributed to the cooling.  Japan had a devastating earthquake in the last weeks.

 

During the winter, low clouds can keep the polar regions warmer, thus reducing the N-S temperature gradient that may lead to a weaker jet stream and a meridional flow.  This wavy N-S flow enhances the warm and cold sectors of storms and hence, extreme temperature swings. Thus far this winter we have a very wavy jet steam.  Have a look at my album’s examples.

 

The El Niño continues to weaken yet it covers a large area; however, so far California is following the intense winter weather associated with an El Niño. The latest SST observations show cold water below the thin warm El Niño water, thus indicating the likelihood of a la Niña forming soon.   NCAR scientists called for a severe winter.  Thus far, the Ontario-Hudson Bay 700 mb low has been pulling cold air south into the East much like last winter.  Note: the eastern N American low gyrates in the Jet, hence its impact varies. The West and High Plains are on the western edge of the deep cold air, hence, they have brief cold blasts and may benefit from the Pacific ARs heavy snow; however, they will enjoy somewhat warmer winter temperatures than the NE.  The Sudden Stratospheric Warming - SSW was predicted to pull extremely cold air into the entire US by mid-January and again in February and March.  This verified quite nicely in January - burr !  We’ll see how March goes.  It would appear that CHINA and Asia have been hit the hardest with severe cold weather this season and are now warming.

 


Dr. Valentina Zharkova, a solar expert from the Ukraine, talks about the sun’s impact on the el Niño in her interview below.  She reviews the Grand Solar Minimum and solar system impacts on climate variability.  

 

Valentina Zharkova’s interview at the end of this link provides a comprehensive review of the GSM physics from an expert in this field.  Dr. Zharkova reviews the physics, mathematics, and relationships of solar cycles, orbital mechanics, magnetosphere impacts, volcano cycles, and el Nino cycles related to the earth’s inclination…

 

https://electroverse.info/coldest-may-80n-greenland-gains-warmer-in-the-past-zharkova-interview/

 

Her primary web site:  https://solargsm.com/

 

 September recorded increases in SMB occurred +6 GT and +10 GT on 1 and 2 Sept respectively setting new records and again this week with 8-10 GT.  The accumulated SMB curve dropped to normal in December-February and is now at or above normal.  see:
 
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

 

and

 

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next3d,69.945,22.148,4,i:pressure,m:fDTafyg  
 

 

The jet stream continues strong with a sharp meridional - wavy N-S flow from N America  to Europe.    Short waves trigger storms as they become more frequent and more powerful.  Their wind shear can still spin up tornadoes in convective storms normally seen in spring and fall.  Omega blocking ridges control the speed of system movement.

 

See:
https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?awp_0_40,34.089,20.303,4,i:pressure,m:ff3agyK 

 

see: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/  

 

Snow:
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,74.902,-40.649,4,i:pressure,m:fOdadW1

 

Rain:
 https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,next10d,51.944,-74.399,4,i:pressure

 


Japan and N Korea warmed a bit  with 2-38 cm of snow on the mountains of N Korea and Japan respectively with record cold and snow.  

 


TropicalTidbits.com  (forecast models) also gives you a look at the temperature departures from normal associated with these storms.  You can see the warm and cold sectors - the normal variations of global temperature.

 

The Himalayas had heavy snow on the peaks with most areas receiving 1-3 m. The Tibetan Plateau is high ~3-5 km msl with new snow from the Himalaya to Shan ranges. Total snow on the ground on 9/3/23 still ranged from 0.5 to 5 m. This high elevation massif is a major factor controlling global weather patterns.  Its unusual snowfall this summer may have a significant impact.  The Hindukusch have had significant snows of 0.5-2.0 m again this week.  Delhi set cold records, northern India and Pakistan had record snows last week.   

 

Southern hemisphere jet is intensifying as the sun marched north cooling the Antarctic.  It is now driving several large deep storms (976 to 936 mb) circling the Antarctic. Antarctic still has large areas in the interior below -40 to -65º C as measured in Windy’s satellite surface temperatures - even this January was reporting below -40ºC - a year without summer.   On 3 Sept the South Pole reported -74.9ºC (-102ºF) and -80ºC at Vostok…  Last week as the Antarctic begins cooling into Fall. Vostok broke -50ºC in December and -60 in March. This week the temperature again fell below -100ºF.   Howling blizzards are still circling the Antarctic coast with 30 to 50 kt winds near these storms.  The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea are 95% and 100% sea Ice covered respectively.  SEA ICE is now increasing rapidly.  McMurdo Base has been quite cold at -19 to -25ºC setting records and grounding aircraft in September.  Temperatures in the Antarctic are cooling, and remaining significantly below normal. This week McMurdo rose to -19º C. The Antarctic set a November record cold of -60ºC.  December and now January are setting new cold summer records: On Jan 4, 2024, the minimums at Concordia, JASE2007 AWS and Vostok were all, once again, below -40C, coming in at -40.8C, -40.2C and -40.1C, respectively.  The South Pole set its 3rd coldest March record at -60ºC this week.The sun is moving N, so the cold is settling in down under.  South Georgia Island had snows reaching 53-76 cm this week.

 


Southern Africa set cold records and snow as deep cyclonic storms march across the South Atlantic pumping Antarctic Air northward.  Even Madagascar and Reunion Island set new cold records and had some snow in October 2023. Record snow fell in late October 2023.
 
AUSTRALIA has had a variety of summer weather.  Antarctic highs set new cold records in June and July and are continuing to set cold records.  Sydney set a new cold summer record when it failed to reach 32ºC (89.6ºF) in December 2022. Australia’s Victoria and South Australia had some much below normal temperatures and cold records to -2.7ºC.  Western Australia cooled as the Antarctic waves moved north. Frosts developed in Queensland and the NW Territories - in subtropical Australia!  This week large areas of Australia continued to have heavy rain : Darwin 150-500 mm, N Queensland had 95-162 mm as tropical cyclones hit. However, much of Australia had significant rains: Canberra 50 mm. Alice Springs remained cool at 20-25 ºC. Normally we see 30 to 45ºC in the satellite surface temperatures on windy.com but Alice Springs remained in the 20s with a couple 40ºC days. The cloud top temperatures near Darwin were -80ºC in deep thunderstorms.  Last week a major Antarctic cold front moved northward over Australia triggering heavy rains up to Alice Springs.  Monthly cold records were set in March.  Note: Jennifer Marohasy discusses Australian forecasts and observations every week.

 

JENNIFER MAROHASY’s latest: https://jennifermarohasy.com/2024/01/cyclone-jasper-bom-forecasting-getting-to-the-truth/

 


Note: 2023 was the first time since 1987 when  Australia’s mountains had snow on the ground all year.  The mean February temperature was 0.2ºC below normal making the summer mean temp 0.5ºC below normal. New Zealand continues to increase snows over the South Island with  20-70 cm and heavy rain at low elevations on the West coast 100-300 mm.  Note: October 25-30, 2023 the interior of Australia had satellite surface temperatures from 10 to 31ºC - spring was here with a few cool highs. During the past weeks, February 1-26, it was much cooler followed by a few 30-40ºC days. Last week the deserts were 10-15ºC behind an Antarctic front. Last week the Snowy range had 11 cm - an early start to winter.

 

 South America was cooling, but cold fronts are predicted to take temperatures 5-10ºC below normal next week. The Andes continued to build their glaciers (1-2 m). South American snow was at record levels.  Patagonia had significant snows and skiing in the Andes continued in November 2023.  Argentina and Brazil continue to be warm,  yet, some Antarctic cold fronts have triggered thunderstorms and locally heavy rains (100-300 mm) in the South of Brazil by Iguazu Falls.  The Iguazu region had heavy rains and floods in contrast to a record drought in the Amazon Basin.  However, the past month had heavy rain in the upper headwaters of the Rio Negro and Amazon Rivers.  Deep thunderstorms with top temperatures of -70 to -80ºC are helping mitigate the drought. These mesoscale convective complexes can dump 100-200+ mm.  Rio and Sao Paulo had flash floods and have remained wet.

 

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,-66.653,-60.776,4,i:pressure,m:NPaelA  

 

For those interested in understanding the current weather, I have documented events in the Albums showing model, satellite, radar, images.

 

New 2/26/24
Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7


EPOCH TIMES 5/1/24:
JOURNALIST REPORTS WITH REFEREED PROFESSIONAL JOURNALS:
Link:  Climate change article:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/ominous-rumblings-from-the-climate-change-cult-5553549

 

Earth’s Future -mass extinction history
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022EF003336

 

Temp as F(CO2)
https://www.ssb.no/en/natur-og-miljo/forurensning-og-klima/artikler/to-what-extent-are-temperature-levels-changing-due-to-greenhouse-gas-emissions/_/attachment/inline/5a3f4a9b-3bc3-4988-9579-9fea82944264:f63064594b9225f9d7dc458b0b70a646baec3339/DP1007.pdf

 

UK energy policy:

 

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/12/20/britains_net_zero_disaster_and_the_wind_power_scam_1000250.html

 

Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00367-6

 

Anthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect. Here we used the abrupt reduction in anthropogenic emissions observed during the COVID-19 societal slow-down to characterize the aerosol masking effect over South Asia. During this period, the aerosol loading decreased substantially and our observations reveal that the magnitude of this aerosol demasking corresponds to nearly three-fourths of the CO2-induced radiative forcing over South Asia. Concurrent measurements over the northern Indian Ocean unveiled a ~7% increase in the earth’s surface-reaching solar radiation (surface brightening). Aerosol-induced atmospheric solar heating decreased by ~0.4 K d−1. Our results reveal that under clear sky conditions, anthropogenic emissions over South Asia lead to nearly 1.4 W m−2 heating at the top of the atmosphere during the period March–May. A complete phase-out of today’s fossil fuel combustion to zero-emission renewables would result in rapid aerosol demasking, while the GHGs linger on.

 

Global temperatures, CO2 concentrations and oceans
Allan T. Emrén
Published Online:June 30, 2023pp 401-412https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276

 


Abstract
During the past 170 years, temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased. Published data on global temperature, CO2 data, and data on sea ice in the Arctic have been investigated. It is seen that support for human activities causing the observed increases is weak. It is found that the rate of change in CO2 concentration is controlled by global temperature rather than vice versa. To stop the growing concentration, the temperature has first to be decreased by about 1.4 K. This makes it questionable if attempts by humans to modify the global temperature, or the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will give any noticeable result. A correlation is found between seasonal variations in CO2 concentrations and Arctic sea ice quantities. The present increase in CO2 concentration and temperature is similar to one 55 million years ago, indicating that the Earth passed a 'tipping point' around 1750.
https://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276 
…….

 

WSJ: How Climate Policy Went Wrong:

 


https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-climate-policy-went-wrong-new-aerosal-study-energy-subsidies-carbon-tax-4e437371?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

 

A new documentary on climate: Well worth viewing —

 


Electroverse provides an excellent source of extremes not reported in the MSM:
Latest Extremes: 13 MAY 2024


Heavy May Snow Hits the Sierra Nevada; Concordia Below -70C (-94F) for 10-Days; + Cooling In The Tropical Pacific, La Niña Looms
May 6, 2024 Cap Allon
Heavy May Snow Hits the Sierra Nevada
The Sierra Nevada’s highest single-day snowfall total for the season came on Sunday, May 5.
‘Who had that on their winter bingo card?’ asked the University of California, Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab on X:
A historic Winter Storm Warning was issued for Lake Tahoe and Mammoth Lakes, the first-ever issuance in May, and Mother Nature duly delivered, dropping 26.4 inches on Sunday, beating the season’s previous snowiest day, the 23.8 inches from March 1.
Rare flakes hit the lower elevations too, with inches accumulating on the Eastern Slope down from Mount Rose (<6,000 ft).


https://electroverse.info/may-snow-sierra-nevada-concordia-cold-la-nina-looms/ 


Temperatures also fell, into the low 40s (F) for many which some 20F below the seasonal norm. Locations along the Sierra Crest dropped to near 0F (-17.8C).
“One of the coldest May storms in recent history is moving through NorCal,” posted Colin McCarthy to X on May 4, an Atmospheric Scientist at The University of California, Davis. Looking ahead, the first half of the new week offers little respite:


Concordia Below -70C (-94F) for 10-Days
Antarctica’s anomalous cold is persisting for its eighth month on the trot.
A low of -77C (-106.6F) was registered at Concordia on Saturday, May 4 — a reading well below the average.
A comparatively balmy -72.3C (-98.1F) followed on Sunday, but it still made for Concordia’s tenth day in a row with minimums below -70C (-94F) — a very rare feat.
Antarctica is cooling, the data are clear:


Cooling In The Tropical Pacific, La Niña Looms
Cooling in the Pacific Ocean is intensifying, a new La Niña is rising, and a watch has been issued. Atmospheric impacts are due July-onward, through the winter of 2024-25, which would make for the fourth La Niña winter of the past five years.
From early-Jan to early-May, the entire ENSO region has cooled quite significantly, with the strongest cooling (4-6C below the norm) noted in the eastern ENSO regions.


Much Of Russia Returned To Winter; Heavy Snow Hits Argentina A Month Early; Spain Chills; “Best May Powder Days In Memory” At Palisades; Cold Antarctic Coast; + X4.5-Flare
May 7, 2024 Cap Allon
Much Of Russia Returned To Winter
This isn’t exaggeration, winter has returned to Russia, in May.
Freezes have struck Kaliningrad to Krasnoyarsk, and Murmansk to Krasnodar, while heavy snows have been observed from the northwest, through central regions, to the Volga, over the Urals, to Western and Central Siberia, and into the North Caucasus.
“Blizzards are raging in the Russian North, the Polar Urals, and northern Siberia,” reports gismeteo.ru. “While in the middle latitudes, snow cover, rare for this time, has been restored.”
The snow has been fiercest in and around the Urals where tens of thousands of people have lost power, in the Sverdlovsk region for one.
The water supply here has also been disrupted, according to local authorities.


https://electroverse.info/russia-to-winter-snow-argentina-spain-chills-palisades-snow-cold-antarctic-coast-xflare/ 


Speaking to the cold, the soil temperature in the Kushchevsky district of the Krasnodar Territory –for example– dropped to -2.4C (27.7F) on May 5. This is classified as ‘dangerous’ in May due to risk of frost damage to tender crops and budding fruits.
A frost warning was issued for May 5 and 6, recently extended to May 7.
Freezes have also swept the Republic of Adygea, in the Stavropol Territory.
Headed west, Moscow has also been enduring freezing lows. Muscovites could also see a few settling flakes in the coming days. The cold is set to persist and all, with -3C (26.6F) forecast later in the week and wet snow. “Almost the entire week the temperature will be 10 degrees [C] below normal, [akin] to early April,” reports hmn.ru.
Likewise in St. Petersburg, lows of -5C (23F) have been registered after Arctic air crashed south through the Kara and Barents seas and down through Scandinavia. Settling snow is also expected here by Wednesday.


Note: Scandinavia has endured brutal chills this winter and spring. Savukoski Tulppio has posted a -30C (-22F) reading every month from November to April. The last time -30C was measured for six consecutive months in Finland was 45 years ago, in Kittilä Pokka, in 1979.
Longer-range models see Russia’s ‘return to winter’ persisting until at least May 20.


Spain Chills
Arctic air still isn’t done with Europe, either.
The Jerez de la Frontera, in Spain has broken its minimum temperature record for the month of May.
With a low of 4.5C (40.1F) the previous record of 4.7C (40.5F) –registered just three years ago– has been bested, with station data extending back to 1952.
“Best May Powder Days In Memory” At Palisades
The spring snowpack continues to build over California’s higher reaches.
Recently, Palisades Tahoe received 26 inches in just 24 hours, prompting officials to ready the slopes “for one of the best May powder days in recent memory”:

Heavy Snow Hits Northern Argentina A Month Early
An early-season freeze has engulfed much of Argentina this week, as Antarctic air ascends unusually far north.
Wintry conditions have arrived in Patagonia, for one, where a biting -11.8C (10.8F) was registered in El Calafete, Santa Cruz on May 6 — a reading just 0.6C from the city’s monthly record.
Biting lows and heavy snows are expected to persist in the coming days, across the majority of Argentina.
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) has extended an orange snow alert for Tuesday in the Río Negro and Neuquén mountain ranges where an additional 70 cm (28 inches) is on the cards.
Looking further ahead, the mass of ‘blues’ and ‘purples’ is forecast to advance northward and intensify as the month of May progresses, pushing beyond Argentina and into the likes of Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia and even southern Brazil:

Cold Antarctic Coast
Antarctica’s anomalous cold isn’t just confined to the heart of the Plateau, the coast is also shivering.
Remarkable readings struck the coastal Adélie Land on the morning of May 6
The D-47 Automatic Weather Station (pictured below) posted a low of -41C (-41.8F) which is far-below the average, one of the locale’s earliest sub -40Cs on record, in fact, and a reading just 3.6C shy of the monthly record reached on May 15, 1993.


“Patagonia Is Absolutely Buried”; Rare Snow Blankets Chile’s Capital; Snowbird, Utah Surpasses 600 Inches; + Alaska’s Near-Record Snow Season Also Means “Big Fire Danger”
May 9, 2024 Cap Allon
“Patagonia Is Absolutely Buried”
The early-May snow in South America has been truly jaw-dropping.
Beginning in Bariloche, Argentina –and adding to Tuesday’s report— autumn appears to have been skipped entirely here, with the Río Negro region jumping straight into winter after receiving as much as 8 feet of snow.


https://electroverse.info/rare-snow-chiles-snowbird-utah-600-inches-alaskas-fire-danger/ 


“This is not normal,” said David Owen, of Andes backcountry guiding service PowderQuest in a recent interview for powder.com.
“Everyone has been blown away. The locals are claiming this is an historical event. It has been snowing for nearly a week now. While May always sees snow in Patagonia, the intensity of these back to back storms has never been seen at this time of year.
“Patagonia is absolutely buried.


Rare Snow Blankets Chile’s Capital
Rare early-season snow is even clipping the Chilean capital of Santiago, with substantial accumulations noted in communes such as Lo Barnechea, Las Condes, Vitacura, Puente Alto, La Reina and Pirque.
Authorities have advised locals in the Santiago Metropolitan Region to “dress accordingly and drive carefully”. Data from the Office of the Superintendent of Electricity and Fuels reveals that some 225,000 people are currently without power.
Snow in Chile’s capital is rare.
Flakes settled back in July 2020, and before that in July 2017–when Santiago residents woke to a blanketing that again resulted in widespread power outages. But these recent early-May dumpings are considered extremely rare.
Santiago has a temperate semi-arid climate, it doesn’t often see temperatures near or below the freezing mark, let alone snow.
Snowbird, Utah Surpasses 600 Inches
Snowbird has surpassed 600 inches of seasonal snowfall and plans to remain open through at least Memorial Day.
Late-season snowstorm cycles have pounded the west in recent weeks, driving snowpack well-above the norm.
They average around 500 inches a season at Snowbird.
Brighton Resort also recently surpassed 600 inches of seasonal snowfall amidst the most-recent storm cycle.
The entire Jordan basin, in fact –which encompasses Brighton, Snowbird, and also Solitude– is well above the median SWE.
Alaska’s Near-Record Snow Season Also Means “Big Fire Danger”
Anchorage is witnessing its second-snowiest season, after notching its snowiest-ever calendar year in 2023 (in books back to 1958). Good news, right climate crusaders? Nope. The city’s Fire Department says this season’s remarkable snow could mean a more dangerous fire season. The AGW Party is having it both ways, as always.
“Climate change is making wildfires last longer and be more intense,” is the official claim. And agenda-driving television news would have us all believing these natural disasters are getting worse. But they’re not. The data are very clear on that.
In 1900, around 4.5% of the land area of the world would burn every year. Over the last century, this declined to about 3.2%. And in the last two decades, satellites show an even further decline. In 2021 just 2.5% burned. All according to NASA, no less:


Record May Cold In Japan; IPCC Arctic Sea Ice ‘Adjustments’; Canada Is Building Six New Polar Icebreakers; + Five CMEs Headed For Earth, ‘Severe’ Geomagnetic Storms Forecast
May 10, 2024 Cap Allon
Record May Cold In Japan
This week, Japan has been engulfed by a mass of descending Arctic air.
March-like cold has gripped the entire country:


https://electroverse.info/record-cold-japan-ipcc-arctic-sea-ice-adjustments-canada-six-new-polar-icebreakers-five-cmes-headed-for-earth/ 


The northern prefecture of Hokkaido has posted some of the coldest temperatures.
Asahikawa’s low of -1.2C (29.8F) on Thursday –for example– has been confirmed as the city’s coldest May temperature since 2005. Teshio dipped lower still, the -4.9C (23.7F) registered there is the town’s second-lowest temperature ever recorded (in books dating back to 1978), bested only by the -5.7C (21.7F) set during the May of 2009 (the deep solar minimum of weak cycle 23).
May snow has even been falling in these parts, even after Golden Week — a big national holiday running from 29 April to 5 May.
More than 10 cm (4 inches) has hit the higher elevations, while even lower down, on the Sea of Okhotsk, substantial flurries have been noted for the time of year, as revealed by the below webcam shot of the Ukishima Tunnel on National Route 273:
Japan has seen wild swings between extremes in recent weeks, from record lows to record highs, back and forth, constantly flip-flopping.
In March, the country’s famed cherry blossom bloom came 5-days late due to persistent cold, the latest “front” in 12-years; April was then an anomalously-warm month; but now May is delivering record low temperatures and mountain snowfall.
These swings are highly unusual, far more than your standard spring fluctuations. They are evidence of an increasingly-wavy jet stream, the cause of which is thought to be the cumulative effects of years –decades, in fact– of decreasing solar activity.


IPCC Arctic Sea Ice ‘Adjustments’
It’s not just temperature datasets that government agencies tamper with to get their desired results, they’ve been caught tweaking sea ice data and all.
As revealed by Tony Heller, between 1990 and 2001 the IPCC rewrote the history of Arctic sea ice, magically turning an increase in ice from 1972-1990 into a decline.
The IPCC feels protected committing scientific fraud because the establishment —from its legacy media to its unquestioning pop-scientists— supports them in their endeavor. Having incompetent, weak-willed bureaucrats at the helm also doesn’t help.

Tellingly, you will not hear mainstream reportings re. Arctic sea ice in 2024.
This is because extent currently stands, as of May 8, at an 11-year high — above the year 2004, matching 1989, and not too far off the 1981-2010 average:
Honest scientific debate is being hampered by a set of dogmatic beliefs laid down from on high.


Canada Is Building Six New Polar Icebreakers
The projections of an ice-free Arctic haven’t panned out, as evidence by Canada requiring six new polar icebreaker.
Canada’s Minister of Public Services and Procurement Jean-Yves Duclos said the six new icebreakers will replace the vessels currently used by the Canadian Coast Guard (CCG), and will see the country with a feet of next generation Arctic ships.
“They will be among the most advanced, sustainable and durable vessels tailored to the world’s harshest environments. The new fleet will be symbolic of Canada’s Arctic presence and crucial to keeping our country open for business year-round,” said Duclos.

 

Five CMEs Headed For Earth, ‘Severe’ Geomagnetic Storms Forecast
Huge sunspot AR3664 has hurled five coronal mass ejections (CMEs) toward Earth.
All five are visible in this frenetic two-day coronagraph movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):
Record May Cold Sweeps European-Russia, Prompting Major Russian Grain Growing Regions To Declare An Emergency; + “Historic” Solar Storm Delivers Auroras To All 50 U.S. States…
May 13, 2024 Cap Allon
Record May Cold Sweeps European-Russia, Prompting Major Russian Grain Growing Regions To Declare An Emergency
Fierce Arctic air has gripped Eastern Europe and much of Russia of late, tanking temperatures down to as low as -6C (21.2F), to record-low levels for the time of year.
The below data comes courtesy of Russia’s national meteorological service (Гидрометцентр России, Gidrometcentr Rossii), and via hmn.ru.
Famed for its rich, deep, black soil, Chernozem (the “Black Earth Belt”) has been hit by hard frosts.
In Valuyki, thermometers dipped to -3.4C (25.9F) on May 10, smashing the previous record-low for the month of May of 0.8C set back in 1952.


https://electroverse.info/record-may-cold-sweeps-european-russia-prompting-major-russian-grain-growing-regions-to-declare-an-emergency-historic-solar-storm-delivers-auroras-to-all-50-u-s-states/

.
Records also fell in In Yelets (-1.2C/29.8F), in Voronezh (-1.8C/28.8F), and in Tambov (-2.3C/27.9F) — to name just three others.
Frosts have ravaged the Volga region and all this month, on three separate occasions (to May 12).
In Balashov, a low of -4.4C (24.1F) was recently observed, a reading 2.2C below the old record which had stood since 1950. While in Alexandrov Gai, a rare -3.4C (25.9F) was noted.
In Sorochinsk, located in the Orenburg region, a low of -2.3C (27.9F) was posted, breaking the previous May record of -1.7C (28.9F) set in 1971. The average daily temperature here throughout May has held some 10-11 degrees C below the historical average.
Record lows were also posted on the night of May 10 across the Rostov region, in Chertkovo and Gigant — to name two.
Frosts of -3.3 (26.1F) and -3.8 (25.2F) were suffered in Uryupinsk and Frolovo, respectively. They also reached Lugansk which shivered through -3.1 (26.4F), a mark that busted the locale’s previous May extreme of -1.1C (30F) from 1950.
Extremes May chills also swept the likes of the Yaroslavl region on May 11, as they did both the Kostroma and Orenburg regions.
While in the city of Vladimir, thermometers dipped to -1.8C (28.8F) and so set a new record-low for the month of May, besting the previous record by 0.6C, from 2017.
Even before this latest round of descending polar air, three of Russia’s key grain-growing areas had already declared a state of emergency, citing severe frost damage to crops that is expected to drastically reduce this year’s harvest.
Last week, the central regions of Lipetsk, Voronezh and Tambov, located in Russia’s fertile ‘Black Earth Belt’, all imposed emergency measures.
“The frosts that hit in early May led to catastrophic consequences,” said Igor Artamonov, the governor of the Lipetsk region. “We must understand that this year’s harvest will be much smaller than the previous one.”
In neighboring Voronezh, the regional agriculture ministry wrote on Telegram: “According to preliminary data, the area of dead or severely damaged crops has exceeded 265,000 hectares.”
While in Tambov, further east, Governor Maksim Yegorov signed a similar order, with his administration citing “early May frosts that have killed crops and damaged perennial plantings”.
Lows of -4.6C (23.7F) in have prompted the Voronezh ministry to fear the worst. The declaring of a state of emergency here has enabled farmers to “document the objective impossibility of achieving target indicators”, which they are obliged to hit in order to receive subsidies, and also to apply for insurance payments.
Authorities in Tambov said temperatures crashed to -5C (26F) on four separate nights, ravaging the fields.
Russia is one of the world’s top grain producers and exporters.


“Historic” Solar Storm Delivers Auroras To All 50 U.S. States
NOAA forecast a ‘severe’ G4 geomagnetic storm, we ended up witnessing an ‘extreme’ G5 event with auroras lighting up the skies of Europe, Asia, North America, Mexico, South America, and Australia and New Zealand.
The historic geomagnetic storm of May 10-11, 2024 was witnessed by hundreds of millions of people, with many seeing the dancing colors in the skies for the first time in their lives.
Despite the major activity, Bettwy said scientists haven’t seen any major impacts as a result of the solar flares — no reports of downed satellites or perturbations to power grids, and now the storms are over.
NOAA forecasters say there’s no chance of additional G5 activity this week because all the big CMEs have come and gone. Relatively minor G1 or G2-class storms are possible May 13 from a glancing blow from this off-target CME, but that’s it:

 

 

 

 

 

 

6 MAY 2024

FLOODS on every continent except Antarctica dominated the weather this week.  You can watch them on windy.com global satellite imagery, and model forecasts.  The satellite images have real-time lightning strikes that give you an idea of the relative storm intensity. Texas and Louisiana were hit hard by severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and floods as the ground became saturated.   Deep Spring storms moved across America from California to Ontario bringing cold fronts and warm sectors with extreme weather.  The latest model and NWS forecasts have winter storms in the West from the Cascades and Sierra to the Rockies.  The heavy precipitation on the West Coast in May is quite unusual. My Winter 2024 album documents these conditions and the Storm Prediction Center’s forecasts.  A job well done.  Northern areas had frost and hard freezes in the East, while the West was warm LAST WEEK.  


Europe was also wet as a deep trough/closed low from Iceland to Algeria stalled and spun-up short waves that moved from the UK to France and across central Europe.  This added high alpine snows to the Alps and saturated low land soils.  May’s forecast threatens another cold surge and late season frosts and snows. Remember every extratropical storm has a warm and cold sector, thus we may have warm dry air and cold wet regions...Siberia is warming from the -30s to 20s ºC in May.

Kenya and Tanzania suffered extreme flooding as the InterTropical Convergence Zone ITCZ moved north  and Tropical Cyclone Hidaya triggered severe thunderstorms and heavy rains for many days.  Over 180 people have died. Southern China’s Pearl River Delta also had floods triggered by intense thunderstorms. This region’s annual flooding was more intense than normal.  Northern India in contrast had heavy snows that stranded over 1000 people, while in the south temperatures exceeded 40ºC.   

Australia’s NSW may have more flooding like in April.  ECMWF forecasts have predicted 100-300 mm near Sydney.  In South America,  Brazil is having extreme floods killing over 39 people and destroying large areas with debris flows and floods.  Water levels in Porto Alegre rose to 4.88 m the highest since 1941.  This after the Amazon’s drought stopped shipping in January.  It has since recovered.  Columbia’s drought is over with very heavy rains (200-700 mm) over the past 3 weeks.  Nature has a way of seeking balance.  The ENSO is trending to a La Niña as the El Niño ends.

The Antarctic continued to set cold records at the South Pole and Vostok station reaching -80ºC (-112ºF). Deep snows continued on Thwaites Glacier as a 948 mb storm pumped 1-2 m of new snow into the mountains.  The Andes continued to get 1-2 m also.


THE FOLLOWING TABLES show the observed temperatures at key points from Greenland to Vostok and the ECMWF 10-day snowfall forecasts at key points around the world where glaciers may be receding or growing.

OBSERVED TEMPERATURES and ECMWF 10-DAY SNOWFALL FORECASTS:

See:      

https://photos.app.goo.gl/D4FSQPjmzrAwbS2q9   


 You can see the magnitude of the storms on windy.com and in NOAA’s GOES satellite imagery: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G18&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

Temperature anomalies are tucked on:

 tropicaltidbits.com
see: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024021212&fh=6

See details below in CURRENT EXTREMES: 11 March 2024

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-11-13&id=0927f461-b5cc-4bbf-8f64-04383cf830f2

The windy.com wave map shows the deep storms:

see:  https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,67.842,-1.230,3,i:pressure

Check out the albums below for detailed charts, satellite images, and observations:

Fall - Winter 2023:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6  

 Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7  

Review of past logs:

Atmospheric Rivers dominate precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere from Alaska to Greenland and Europe.  These ARs are associated with intense cyclonic storms on the jet stream that dominate the weather.  Recall tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones (Lows) and anticyclones (Highs) control our weather.  Atmospheric River forecasts quantify the model computations of moisture flux from surface to 700 mb.  This flux controls the duration and intensity of precipitation.  Remember last winter when California had a record number of intense ARs that filled the “1000 yr“  drought’s reservoirs and extended Mammoth Mountain’s ski season into August 2023. Mammoth mountain is again accumulating heavy snows with a foot a day for 7 days in the last storm.  California is drought free today as new ARs are pounding the coast again this winter triggering flash floods and debris flows in this saturated ground.  The Colorado River Basin continues to benefit from these snowstorms from Colorado to Wyoming and Utah. Early season NRCS snow water equivalent SWE is running from 100 to 120% of normal.  

NRCS Basin Data:  https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#version=169&elements=&networks=!&states=!&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=any&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=true&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=2&basinOpacity=75&basinNoDataOpacity=25&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&popupBasin=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8&parameter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&monthPart=E&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&useMixedPast=true&seqColor=1&divColor=7&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2020&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&relativeDate=-1&lat=43.728&lon=-104.797&zoom=5.0

Atmospheric River forecast by Marty Ralph’s team:
https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/


An important component of the Grand Solar Minimum is an increase in clouds due to its impact on our solar system’s magnetosphere and increased numbers of deep space cosmic rays penetrating our upper atmosphere and generating cloud condensation nuclei.  Clouds produce many complex phenomena ranging from cooling as solar radiation is reflected back to space, to surface warming as heat is retained at night and radiational cooling is reduced under stratus and in fog.   On a large scale temperature gradients control the winds and jet stream dynamics.  Clouds also impact the sea surface temperature SST which can have profound impacts on the Earth’s energy budget from the El Niño to Jet stream intensity and location.  NASA is now predicting a solar maximum of cycle 25 by January 2024 with some CMEs.  Note: current climate models fail to adequately simulate clouds; hence, a serious limit to their long term predictions.  The primary critical impact of the GSM is late spring frosts and early fall frosts that limit the growing season.  It is difficult for long term models to predict these critical events accurately.

Volcanic activity has increased dramatically in November 2023 with two stratovolcanoes pumping huge amounts of volcanic ash into the stratosphere in the northern Hemisphere from Kamchatka, and the tropics from New Guinea.  Iceland’s seismic activity also increased significantly and resulted in a small volcanic eruption.  Stratospheric volcanic dust from volcanoes cause significant atmospheric cooling.  During the Little Ice Age there were many volcanoes associated with the Milankovitch Cycle that also contributed to the cooling.  Japan had a devastating earthquake in the last weeks.

During the winter, low clouds can keep the polar regions warmer, thus reducing the N-S temperature gradient that may lead to a weaker jet stream and a meridional flow.  This wavy N-S flow enhances the warm and cold sectors of storms and hence, extreme temperature swings. Thus far this winter we have a very wavy jet steam.  Have a look at my album’s examples.

The El Niño continues to weaken yet it covers a large area; however, so far California is following the intense winter weather associated with an El Niño. The latest SST observations show cold water below the thin warm El Niño water, thus indicating the likelihood of a la Nina forming soon.   NCAR scientists called for a severe winter.  Thus far, the Ontario-Hudson Bay 700 mb low has been pulling cold air south into the East much like last winter.  Note: the eastern N American low gyrates in the Jet, hence its impact varies. The West and High Plains are on the western edge of the deep cold air, hence, they have brief cold blasts and may benefit from the Pacific ARs heavy snow; however, they will enjoy somewhat warmer winter temperatures than the NE.  The Sudden Stratospheric Warming - SSW was predicted to pull extremely cold air into the entire US by mid-January and again in February and March.  This verified quite nicely in January - burr !  We’ll see how March goes.  It would appear that CHINA and Asia have been hit the hardest with severe cold weather this season and are now warming.


Dr. Valentina Zharkova, a solar expert from the Ukraine, talks about the sun’s impact on the el Niño in her interview below.  She reviews the Grand Solar Minimum and solar system impacts on climate variability.  

Valentina Zharkova’s interview at the end of this link provides a comprehensive review of the GSM physics from an expert in this field.  Dr. Zharkova reviews the physics, mathematics, and relationships of solar cycles, orbital mechanics, magnetosphere impacts, volcano cycles, and el Nino cycles related to the earth’s inclination…

https://electroverse.info/coldest-may-80n-greenland-gains-warmer-in-the-past-zharkova-interview/

Her primary web site:  https://solargsm.com/

 September recorded increases in SMB occurred +6 GT and +10 GT on 1 and 2 Sept respectively setting new records and again this week with 8-10 GT.  The accumulated SMB curve dropped to normal in December-February and is now at or above normal.  see:
 
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

and

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next3d,69.945,22.148,4,i:pressure,m:fDTafyg  
 

The jet stream continues strong with a sharp meridional - wavy N-S flow from N America  to Europe.    Short waves trigger storms as they become more frequent and more powerful.  Their wind shear can still spin up tornadoes in convective storms normally seen in spring and fall.  Omega blocking ridges control the speed of system movement.

See:
https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?awp_0_40,34.089,20.303,4,i:pressure,m:ff3agyK  

see: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/  

Snow:
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,74.902,-40.649,4,i:pressure,m:fOdadW1

Rain:
 https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,next10d,51.944,-74.399,4,i:pressure


Japan and N Korea armed a bit  with 2-38 cm of snow on the mountains of N Korea and Japan respectively with record cold and snow.  


TropicalTidbits.com  (forecast models) also gives you a look at the temperature departures from normal associated with these storms.  You can see the warm and cold sectors - the normal variations of global temperature.

The Himalayas had heavy snow on the peaks with most areas receiving 1-3 m. The Tibetan Plateau is high ~3-5 km msl with new snow from the Himalaya to Shan ranges. Total snow on the ground on 9/3/23 still ranged from 0.5 to 5 m. This high elevation massif is a major factor controlling global weather patterns.  Its unusual snowfall this summer may have a significant impact.  The Hindukusch have had significant snows of 0.5-2.0 m again this week.  Delhi set cold records, northern India and Pakistan had record snows last week.   

Southern hemisphere jet is intensifying as the sun marched north cooling the Antarctic.  It is now driving several large deep storms (976 to 936 mb) circling the Antarctic. Antarctic still has large areas in the interior below -40 to -65º C as measured in Windy’s satellite surface temperatures - even this January was reporting below -40ºC - a year without summer.   On 3 Sept the South Pole reported -74.9ºC (-102ºF) and -80ºC at Vostok…  Last week as the Antarctic begins cooling into Fall. Vostok broke -50ºC in December and -60 in March. This week the temperature again fell below -100ºF.   Howling blizzards are still circling the Antarctic coast with 30 to 50 kt winds near these storms.  The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea are 95% and 100% sea Ice covered respectively.  SEA ICE is now increasing rapidly.  McMurdo Base has been quite cold at -19 to -25ºC setting records and grounding aircraft in September.  Temperatures in the Antarctic are cooling, and remaining significantly below normal. This week McMurdo rose to -19º C. The Antarctic set a November record cold of -60ºC.  December and now January are setting new cold summer records: On Jan 4, 2024, the minimums at Concordia, JASE2007 AWS and Vostok were all, once again, below -40C, coming in at -40.8C, -40.2C and -40.1C, respectively.  The South Pole set its 3rd coldest March record at -60ºC this week.The sun is moving N, so the cold is settling in down under.  South Georgia Island had snows reaching 53-76 cm this week.


Southern Africa set cold records and snow as deep cyclonic storms march across the South Atlantic pumping Antarctic Air northward.  Even Madagascar and Reunion Island set new cold records and had some snow in October 2023. Record snow fell in late October 2023.
 
AUSTRALIA has had a variety of summer weather.  Antarctic highs set new cold records in June and July and are continuing to set cold records.  Sydney set a new cold summer record when it failed to reach 32ºC (89.6ºF) in December 2022. Australia’s Victoria and South Australia had some much below normal temperatures and cold records to -2.7ºC.  Western Australia cooled as the Antarctic waves moved north. Frosts developed in Queensland and the NW Territories - in subtropical Australia!  This week large areas of Australia continued to have heavy rain : Darwin 150-500 mm, N Queensland had 95-162 mm as tropical cyclones hit. However, much of Australia had significant rains: Canberra 50 mm. Alice Springs remained cool at 20-25 ºC. Normally we see 30 to 45ºC in the satellite surface temperatures on windy.com but Alice Springs remained in the 20s with a couple 40ºC days. The cloud top temperatures near Darwin were -80ºC in deep thunderstorms.  Last week a major Antarctic cold front moved northward over Australia triggering heavy rains up to Alice Springs.  Monthly cold records were set in March.  Note: Jennifer Marohasy discusses Australian forecasts and observations every week.

JENNIFER MAROHASY’s latest: https://jennifermarohasy.com/2024/01/cyclone-jasper-bom-forecasting-getting-to-the-truth/


Note: 2023 was the first time since 1987 when  Australia’s mountains had snow on the ground all year.  The mean February temperature was 0.2ºC below normal making the summer mean temp 0.5ºC below normal. New Zealand continues to increase snows over the South Island with  20-70 cm and heavy rain at low elevations on the West coast 100-300 mm.  Note: October 25-30, 2023 the interior of Australia had satellite surface temperatures from 10 to 31ºC - spring was here with a few cool highs. During the past weeks, February 1-26, it was much cooler followed by a few 30-40ºC days. Last week the deserts were 10-15ºC behind an Antarctic front. Last week the Snowy range had 11 cm - an early start to winter.

 South America was warm, but cold fronts are predicted to take temperatures 5-10ºC below normal next week. The Andes continued to build their glaciers (1-2 m). South American snow was at record levels.  Patagonia had significant snows and skiing in the Andes continued in November 2023. Surface temperatures reached 30ºC this week in Patagonia.  Argentina and Brazil continue to be warm,  yet, some Antarctic cold fronts have triggered thunderstorms and locally heavy rains (100-300 mm) in the South of Brazil by Iguazu Falls.  The Iguazu region had heavy rains and floods in contrast to a record drought in the Amazon Basin.  However, the past month had heavy rain in the upper headwaters of the Rio Negro and Amazon Rivers.  Deep thunderstorms with top temperatures of -70 to -80ºC are helping mitigate the drought. These mesoscale convective complexes can dump 100-200+ mm.  Rio and Sao Paulo had flash floods and have remained wet.

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,-66.653,-60.776,4,i:pressure,m:NPaelA  

For those interested in understanding the current weather, I have documented events in the Albums showing model, satellite, radar, images.

New 2/26/24
Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7

EPOCH TIMES 5/1/24:
JOURNALIST REPORTS WITH REFEREED PROFESSIONAL JOURNALS:


Link:  Climate change article:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/ominous-rumblings-from-the-climate-change-cult-5553549

Earth’s Future -mass extinction history
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022EF003336

Temp as F(CO2)
https://www.ssb.no/en/natur-og-miljo/forurensning-og-klima/artikler/to-what-extent-are-temperature-levels-changing-due-to-greenhouse-gas-emissions/_/attachment/inline/5a3f4a9b-3bc3-4988-9579-9fea82944264:f63064594b9225f9d7dc458b0b70a646baec3339/DP1007.pdf

UK energy policy:

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/12/20/britains_net_zero_disaster_and_the_wind_power_scam_1000250.html

Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00367-6  .

Anthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect. Here we used the abrupt reduction in anthropogenic emissions observed during the COVID-19 societal slow-down to characterize the aerosol masking effect over South Asia. During this period, the aerosol loading decreased substantially and our observations reveal that the magnitude of this aerosol demasking corresponds to nearly three-fourths of the CO2-induced radiative forcing over South Asia. Concurrent measurements over the northern Indian Ocean unveiled a ~7% increase in the earth’s surface-reaching solar radiation (surface brightening). Aerosol-induced atmospheric solar heating decreased by ~0.4 K d−1. Our results reveal that under clear sky conditions, anthropogenic emissions over South Asia lead to nearly 1.4 W m−2 heating at the top of the atmosphere during the period March–May. A complete phase-out of today’s fossil fuel combustion to zero-emission renewables would result in rapid aerosol demasking, while the GHGs linger on.

Global temperatures, CO2 concentrations and oceans
Allan T. Emrén
Published Online:June 30, 2023pp 401-412   https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276


Abstract
During the past 170 years, temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased. Published data on global temperature, CO2 data, and data on sea ice in the Arctic have been investigated. It is seen that support for human activities causing the observed increases is weak. It is found that the rate of change in CO2 concentration is controlled by global temperature rather than vice versa. To stop the growing concentration, the temperature has first to be decreased by about 1.4 K. This makes it questionable if attempts by humans to modify the global temperature, or the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will give any noticeable result. A correlation is found between seasonal variations in CO2 concentrations and Arctic sea ice quantities. The present increase in CO2 concentration and temperature is similar to one 55 million years ago, indicating that the Earth passed a 'tipping point' around 1750.


https://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276 
…….

WSJ: How Climate Policy Went Wrong:


https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-climate-policy-went-wrong-new-aerosal-study-energy-subsidies-carbon-tax-4e437371?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

A new documentary on climate: Well worth viewing —

Climate: The Movie" highlights a different perspective on the climate change debate and is supported by scientists who have signed the Clintel's World Climate Declaration. This group of researchers seeks to present an alternative narrative in the face of the dominant discourse.


Electroverse provides an excellent source of extremes not reported in the MSM:
Latest Extremes: 6 MAY 2024


Avalanche Hits Kashmir; Mid-May Frosts Forecast For Europe; Prairies Plantings To See Snow Delay; + California ‘Snow Deluges’ To End by 2100, So Says New Study…
April 30, 2024 Cap Allon
Avalanche Hits Kashmir
Amid heavy snow, an avalanche has hit the Sonmarg area of Jammu and Kashmir, India
The slip tore down the the ‘forest side of Sarbal’ on Monday, according to local news. Fortunately, the area isn’t populated and no casualties or damage have been reported.
Northern India has endured persistent, late-season snowfall these past few weeks, as the south endures a heatwave.
Many roads and mountain passes have been closed owing to the unseasonable snows; the Jammu-Srinagar national highway being the most notable, though on Tuesday the infamous Mughal road remained blocked for the fourth consecutive day.
Several schools have also been shut.


https://electroverse.info/avalanche-india-may-frosts-for-europe-prairies-snow-delay-california-no-more-snow/ 


Mid-May Frosts Forecast For Europe
Europe’s crop-wrecking spring frosts could make a return in mid-May, according to latest GFS runs.
This past week has seen Arctic air crash into the continent and deliver record low temperatures from the UK to Ukraine.
Torches or ‘frost fires’ have lit-up European fields of late. Below are images of Karlín in the Czech Republic as winegrowers prepared for a freezing night.Plenty of May snow is also forecast over the Alps, as well as the Pyrenees and Scandinavia, with pockets also falling across the likes of the Romania, Ukraine, Turkey and even Scotland.
Last week, the Czech Republic endured its coldest-ever April temperature (-15C / 5F).
The polar outbreak has destroyed almost the entire fruit harvest in the western part of the country, and more than 50% in the east. The head of the country’s Union of Gardeners called it, “one of the biggest disasters for the industry in the last 100 years.”
Crop losses haven’t just been confined to the Czech Republic, with the likes of France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine among the other nations reporting heavy losses.
Looking ahead, Europe could be on for something similar come mid-May, though possibly not quite as severe (fingers crossed).
Plenty of May snow is also forecast over the Alps, as well as the Pyrenees and Scandinavia, with pockets also falling across the likes of the Romania, Ukraine, Turkey and even Scotland.

Prairies Plantings To See Snow Delay
North American farmers have started their spring seeding operations, as they wrap up soil tests.
This spring has seen a cool start, so reports centralalbertaonline.com, but producers are slowly putting seeds in the ground across the Prairies, with reports of Canadian sowings getting underway in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.
A mix of rain and snow is forecast for much of the prairies, including into the CONUS, as the calendar flips to May –the theme of the past month– which is expected to cause some delays.
Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement in Alberta, with a foot of snow possible by Thursday morning, with the highest amounts falling west of Highway 2 over higher terrain.
 

Rare April Cold Hits Antarctica (-112F); Heavy Spring Snow Traps 1,000 Vehicles In Northern India; Wild Swings In New Jersey; The Wind Didn’t Blow As Hard In 2023; + Big Solar Flare
May 1, 2024 Cap Allon
Rare April Cold Hits Antarctica
Extreme cold has arrived unusually early in Antarctica this year.
Vostok, a Russian research station in inland Princess Elizabeth Land, posted a low of -80C (-112F) on April 29:


https://electroverse.info/cold-antarctica-spring-snow-traps-1000-vehicles-india-swings-new-jersey-the-wind-didnt-blow-flare/ 


This is Vostok’s first sub -80C in the month of April since April 19, 1998, and only the fourth occurrence in the operational history of the research facility (1958). The chronology: -81.8C on April 25, 1964; -80.7C on April 24, 1981; -80.7C on April 19, 1998; and now -80C on April 29, 2024. For ref: Antarctica’s lowest-ever reliable air temperature remains the -89.2C (–128.6F) set on July 21, 1983.
The bottom of the world is cooling, as evidenced by the data (click below for a more detailed breakdown).
Also just in is the South Pole Station’s preliminary temperature for the month of April.
With an average of -59.6C, or -2.2C below the multidecadal baseline, April 2024 makes for the seventh colder-than-average month in a row. We’re waiting on the Vostok data to update the graphic below–which is also assured of being below the norm.
A cooling Antarctica is one of the biggest headaches for the AGW Party. That’s why it rarely gets a mention despite it being home to 90% of Earth’s freshwater (locked up as ice) and so the key player when it comes sea level rise.
2023’s dip in sea ice extent makes the news, of course, but the 2024 recovery (shown below) doesn’t. This is further proof, if ever you needed it, that an agenda is in play, that rather than reporting on the facts, the establishment is curating a narrative.

Heavy Spring Snow Traps 1,000 Vehicles In Northern India
Heavy snow in and around the Atal Tunnel in Himachal Pradesh, India has trapped more than 1,000 vehicles.
The snowstorm blocked roads and stranded 6,000+ people in total, as per reports.
Local police said the snowfall caught many off guard, leading to a massive traffic jam.



Wild Swings In New Jersey
Wild temperature swings have been felt in the likes of New Jersey in recent days, from widespread frost and freeze warnings late last week, to summer-like warmth early this.
The record books will evidence the swing. A daily record low temperature was tied in the Trenton area Friday, which was chased by a daily record high tied Monday afternoon.
Looking ahead, yet another swing is already playing out, with a swath of the Garden State cooling right back down again — owing to a stalled ‘backdoor front’ that is pushing in cooler air from the north and east, as well as a cold front blowing over from the west.


The Wind Didn’t Blow As Hard In 2023
Even with additional capacity, U.S. wind power declined in 2023. Why? The wind didn’t blow as hard.
Wind turbine generation across the United States declined in 2023 for the first time since the mid-1990s, even with the addition of 6.2 GW of new wind capacity, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals.
Wind generation in 2023 totaled 425,235 GWh, 2.1% less than the 434,297 GWh generated in 2022.
 

Missing Spring In Jackson, WY; Cool Summer Forecast For Much Of The Northern Hemisphere; Record May Cold Sweeps India; + Activity At Ruang Continues, SO2 Spreads
May 2, 2024 Cap Allon
Missing Spring In Jackson, WY
The calendar has flipped to May, but the expected seasonal warmth is nowhere to be found across the likes of Wyoming.
The first day of May was unseasonably chilly in these parts. The month commenced with 10 inches of new snow in the Tetons above 9,000 feet (as of Wednesday afternoon). Even the town of Jackson saw heavy snow showers dust grassy surfaces.


https://electroverse.info/jackson-cool-summer-nh-record-cold-india-ruang-so2-spreads/ 


The cold has been quite something, too, even for Jackson. Accompanying the snow, thermometers on Wednesday struggled to a high of just 38F (3.3C) setting a new record low-max for the date. Jackson’s average high in early-May stands at 60F (15.6C).
Looking ahead, temperatures will remain well below average for the foreseeable, barring a one-day reprieve on Saturday when the low-60s are forecast.
On Sunday and Monday, a more potent low pressure system is expected to barrel into the region, resulting in more widespread precipitation, including significant mountain snow, along with another drop in temperatures.

Cool Summer Forecast For Much Of The Northern Hemisphere
Due natural atmospheric factors, such as a developing La Niña and the (gradual) dissipating of water vapor from the Hunga-Tonga eruption, the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2024 is look a heck of a lot colder than last year’s.
Below is a long-range forecast (June-July-August), courtesy of the CanSIPS climate model (Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System). The map is showing 2m temperature anomalies based on the 1981-2010 reference period.

Much of the CONUS, the lower portions at least, can expect a slightly warmer-than-average summer, according to the CanSIPS, but a look at Canada, Alaska, the majority of northern Asia, Europe and North Africa reveals that ‘blues’ will the dominate color.
Temperatures in these parts have already struggled, making for a lackluster spring.
I’ve written previously about the crop-wrecking frosts in Europe (due to return in mid-May), but even more anomalous has been the vast mass of polar air to the east, engulfing much of the Asian continent, including practically ALL of Russia.


Record May Cold Sweeps India
Case in point: While the southern tip of India endures a much-publicized heatwave, central and northern regions are shivering through an unnewsworthy return to winter, one comprising of record low temperatures and feet of late-season snow.
The coldest May temperatures in decades are sweeping the likes of Haryana, Rajasthan and Hisar — to name just three.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) recorded a low of 15.3C (59.4F) in Fatehpur, which is 10C below the norm. Anomalous lows were also posted in Sikar (12.8C/55F), Jammu (12.9C/55.2F), Yamunanagar (14.5C/58.1F), and Baran (also 14.5C).
The IMD station in Sundernagar, Himachal sank to 8.1C (46.6F) on Thursday morning, which made for the lowest May temperature ever recorded at the observatory, comfortably besting the previous record of 8.6C (47.5F) set on May 16, 1987.


 Activity At Ruang Continues, SO2 Spreads
Explosive activity continues at Ruang, with additional Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) injected into the atmosphere. Following the string of stratospheric eruptions last week, additional plumes were released Tuesday rising to an estimated 63,000 ft (19,200 m).
Eruptions at a remote Indonesian volcano have forced more than half a dozen airports to close, and ash has spread as far as Malaysia, according to officials.
Two rescue ships, including a warship, were dispatched to evacuate thousands of people from the neighboring Tagulandang island due to fears that parts of the volcano could fall into the sea, potentially causing a tsunami.
A number of experts are calling the Ruang episodes the second-largest eruption of the century. With the eruptive phase still ongoing however, an official Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) rating is still yet to be assigned (though a VEI 6 looks likely).
One thing is for sure: Ruang is a cooler.

Vostok’s Coldest April Since 1999; Global Temperature Expected To Fall In May; Tonga Eruption Responsible For Toasty 2023; + X-Flare
May 3, 2024 Cap Allon
Vostok’s Coldest April Since 1999
The monthly average temperature for Vosok is in, and it reads even more anomalous than the South Pole Station.
With a reading of -67.9C (-90.2F), last month at Vostok was a substantial -3.1C below the 1958-2023 reference period, making for the station’s coldest April since 1999 (-70.4C/-94.7F).
Vostok saw -80C (-112F) on April 29, the station’s first sub -80C in the month of April since April 19, 1998, and only the fourth occurrence in the operational history of the research facility (1958), these being the -81.8C on April 25, 1964; the -80.7C on April 24, 1981; the -80.7C on April 19, 1998; and now the -80C on April 29, 2024.
Extreme chills arrived unusually early in Antarctica this year, and they’re intensifying.
At the key research facilities of Vostok and the South Pole, April has gone and made for the seventh colder-than-average month in a row (below graphic to be updated).


https://electroverse.info/vostoks-coldest-april-since-1999-global-temperature-expected-to-fall-in-may-tonga-eruption-responsible-for-toasty-2023-x-flare/ 


May has started off anomalously-cold and all, with -76.2 (-105.2F) registered at Vostok on the opening day of the month.
For more of a detailed breakdown of Antarctica’s recent record-setting cold, click here:
The new station, located close to the old which is now ‘sinking into the snow’, was completed in January 2024, though won’t be fully operational until 2025.
The state-of-the-art complex consists of five modules: two residential, two engineering, as well as one with a garage and a workshop.
In winter, the facility will accommodate up to 15 people; in other seasons, up to 35.


Regionally, temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere went up, while for the Southern Hemisphere they went down. The USA48 posted the largest month-on-month rise, from +0.23C in March to +1.23C in April, with Australia noting the biggest drop, from +1.29C to +0.48C.
This anomalous warmth, while proving persistent, is fully explained by the ‘trifecta of warming’ that built through 2023 — these being El Niño, Solar Maximum and the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption, all of which are now showing signs of waning.
Dr Roy Spencer, the man charged with maintaining the UAH satellite-based temperature record, contends that cooling is now on the cards:
“It should be noted that the CDAS [Climate Data Assimilation System] surface temperature anomaly has been falling in recent months (+0.71, +0.60, +0.53, +0.52 deg. C over the last four months) while the satellite deep-layer atmospheric temperature has been rising. This is usually an indication of extra heat being lost by the surface to the deep-troposphere through convection, and is what is expected due to the waning El Niño event. I suspect next month’s tropospheric temperature will fall as a result.“


Tonga Eruption Responsible For Toasty 2023
The rare convergence of a number of events “that may not be repeated for hundreds or even thousands of years” represents a “unique learning opportunity” for climatologists, said Dr. Javier Vinós discussing the Hunga Tonga submarine volcanic eruption of January 2022.
Dr. Vinós, notes the Tonga eruption boosted upper atmospheric water vapor by an unprecedented 10% (at least), and is the most likely cause of the recent warming spike.
Climate scientists were initially shocked by the ferocity of the Hunga Tonga eruption, and within months a group of 31 European scientists, led by Sergey Khaykin, drew attention to the immense discharge of water, ranking it “among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observational era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

29 April 2024

Spring storms rocked the central US from Texas to Michigan and points East.  Tornado Alley had over 118 tornadoes in 48 hrs according to CNN.  The Storm prediction Center (SPC) had numerous warnings out this week with extremely dangerous tornadoes and severe thunderstorms creating havoc and death.  The meandering jet stream - Rosby waves traveled around the Northern Hemisphere dumping heavy snows in the Rockies, creating extreme cold fronts along the N-S Jet track that combined with a strong Atmospheric River AR from the Gulf of Mexico to Canada.  As cyclonic storms exit the Rockies, their circulation creates strong cold fronts and warm fronts with moist unstable air ahead of the cold front.  The cold front lies along the jet stream which has vertical and horizontal wind shear that can spin-up tornadoes.  My Winter 2024 album documents these conditions and the Storm Prediction Center’s forecasts.  A job well done.  Northern areas had frost and hard freezes in the East, while the West was warm.  

A deep closed low sat over Europe with short waves gyrating within it creating significant rain and snow in the Alps.  Slovenia cleared up and warmed by the weekend.  Cold records from France to Ukraine have created the biggest disaster in crop losses in the past 100 years.  Crops from vineyards to orchards have been severely hit.  Temperatures fell from record highs ~ 30ºC  to below freezing and down to -5ºC - hard freezes within 24 hours.

The Southern Hemisphere continued to cool as the jet stream increased in intensity and deep storms 948-970 mb circled the Antarctic with one deep storm dumping gigatons on the Thwaites GlacierGreenland also had a record day with 7 GT after a very quiet period.  Australia continued to have heavy rains on the coast with Sydney having over 300 mm.  New Zealand’s Alps had more snow and Australia’s Snowy Range had significant early snows.  Columbia’s drought ended with heavy 200-700 mm rains during the past 2 weeks.


THE FOLLOWING TABLES show the observed temperatures at key points from Greenland to Vostok and the ECMWF 10-day snowfall forecasts at key points around the world where glaciers may be receding or growing.

OBSERVED TEMPERATURES and ECMWF 10-DAY SNOWFALL FORECASTS:

See:    https://photos.app.goo.gl/D4FSQPjmzrAwbS2q9


 You can see the magnitude of the storms on windy.com and in NOAA’s GOES satellite imagery: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G18&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

Temperature anomalies are tucked on:

 tropicaltidbits.com
see: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024021212&fh=6

See details below in CURRENT EXTREMES: 11 March 2024

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-11-13&id=0927f461-b5cc-4bbf-8f64-04383cf830f2

The windy.com wave map shows the deep storms:

see:  https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,67.842,-1.230,3,i:pressure

Check out the albums below for detailed charts, satellite images, and observations:

Fall - Winter 2023:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6

 Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7  

Review:

Atmospheric Rivers dominate precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere from Alaska to Greenland and Europe.  These ARs are associated with intense cyclonic storms on the jet stream that dominate the weather.  Recall tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones (Lows) and anticyclones (Highs) control our weather.  Atmospheric River forecasts quantify the model computations of moisture flux from surface to 700 mb.  This flux controls the duration and intensity of precipitation.  Remember last winter when California had a record number of intense ARs that filled the “1000 yr“  drought’s reservoirs and extended Mammoth Mountain’s ski season into August 2023. Mammoth mountain is again accumulating heavy snows with a foot a day for 7 days in the last storm.  California is drought free today as new ARs are pounding the coast again this winter triggering flash floods and debris flows in this saturated ground.  The Colorado River Basin continues to benefit from these snowstorms from Colorado to Wyoming and Utah. Early season NRCS snow water equivalent SWE is running from 100 to 120% of normal.  

NRCS Basin Datahttps://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#version=169&elements=&networks=!&states=!&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=any&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=true&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=2&basinOpacity=75&basinNoDataOpacity=25&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&popupBasin=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8&parameter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&monthPart=E&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&useMixedPast=true&seqColor=1&divColor=7&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2020&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&relativeDate=-1&lat=43.728&lon=-104.797&zoom=5.0

Atmospheric River forecast by Marty Ralph’s team:
https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/


An important component of the Grand Solar Minimum is an increase in clouds due to its impact on our solar system’s magnetosphere and increased numbers of deep space cosmic rays penetrating our upper atmosphere and generating cloud condensation nuclei.  Clouds produce many complex phenomena ranging from cooling as solar radiation is reflected back to space, to surface warming as heat is retained at night and radiational cooling is reduced under stratus and in fog.   On a large scale temperature gradients control the winds and jet stream dynamics.  Clouds also impact the sea surface temperature SST which can have profound impacts on the Earth’s energy budget from the El Niño to Jet stream intensity and location.  NASA is now predicting a solar maximum of cycle 25 by January 2024 with some CMEs.  Note: current climate models fail to adequately simulate clouds; hence, a serious limit to their long term predictions.  The primary critical impact of the GSM is late spring frosts and early fall frosts that limit the growing season.  it is difficult for long term models to predict these critical events accurately.

Volcanic activity has increased dramatically in November 2023 with two stratovolcanoes pumping huge amounts of volcanic ash into the stratosphere in the northern Hemisphere from Kamchatka, and the tropics from New Guinea.  Iceland’s seismic activity also increased significantly and resulted in a small volcanic eruption.  Stratospheric volcanic dust from volcanoes cause significant atmospheric cooling.  During the Little Ice Age there were many volcanoes associated with the Milankovitch Cycle that also contributed to the cooling.  Japan had a devastating earthquake in the last weeks.

During the winter, low clouds can keep the polar regions warmer, thus reducing the N-S temperature gradient that may lead to a weaker jet stream and a meridional flow.  This wavy N-S flow enhances the warm and cold sectors of storms and hence, extreme temperature swings. Thus far this winter we have a very wavy jet steam.  Have a look at my album’s examples.

The El Niño continues to weaken yet it covers a large area; however, so far California is following the intense winter weather associated with an El Niño. The latest SST observations show cold water below the thin warm El Niño water, thus indicating the likelihood of a la Niña forming soon.   NCAR scientists called for a severe winter.  Thus far, the Ontario-Hudson Bay 700 mb low has been pulling cold air south into the East much like last winter.  Note: the eastern N American low gyrates in the Jet, hence its impact varies. The West and High Plains are on the western edge of the deep cold air, hence, they have brief cold blasts and may benefit from the Pacific ARs heavy snow; however, they will enjoy somewhat warmer winter temperatures than the NE.  The Sudden Stratospheric Warming - SSW was predicted to pull extremely cold air into the entire US by mid-January and again in February and March.  This verified quite nicely in January - burr !  We’ll see how March goes.  It would appear that CHINA and Asia have been hit the hardest with severe cold weather this season and are now warming.


Dr. Valentina Zharkova, a solar expert from the Ukraine, talks about the sun’s impact on the el Niño in her interview below.  She reviews the Grand Solar Minimum and solar system impacts on climate variability.  

Valentina Zharkova’s interview at the end of this link provides a comprehensive review of the GSM physics from an expert in this field.  Dr. Zharkova reviews the physics, mathematics, and relationships of solar cycles, orbital mechanics, magnetosphere impacts, volcano cycles, and el Nino cycles related to the earth’s inclination…

https://electroverse.info/coldest-may-80n-greenland-gains-warmer-in-the-past-zharkova-interview/

Her primary web site:  https://solargsm.com/

 September recorded increases in SMB occurred +6 GT and +10 GT on 1 and 2 Sept respectively setting new records and again this week with 8-10 GT.  The accumulated SMB curve dropped to normal in December-February and is now at or above normal.  see:
 
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

and

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next3d,69.945,22.148,4,i:pressure,m:fDTafyg  
 

The jet stream continues strong with a sharp meridional - wavy N-S flow from N America  to Europe.    Short waves trigger storms as they become more frequent and more powerful.  Their wind shear can still spin up tornadoes in convective storms normally seen in spring and fall.  Omega blocking ridges control the speed of system movement.

See:
https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?awp_0_40,34.089,20.303,4,i:pressure,m:ff3agyK  

see: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/  

Snow:
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,74.902,-40.649,4,i:pressure,m:fOdadW1

Rain:
 https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,next10d,51.944,-74.399,4,i:pressure


Japan and N Korea armed a bit  with 2-38 cm of snow on the mountains of N Korea and Japan respectively with record cold and snow.  


TropicalTidbits.com  (forecast models) also gives you a look at the temperature departures from normal associated with these storms.  You can see the warm and cold sectors - the normal variations of global temperature.

The Himalayas had heavy snow on the peaks with most areas receiving 1-3 m. The Tibetan Plateau is high ~3-5 km msl with new snow from the Himalaya to Shan ranges. Total snow on the ground on 9/3/23 still ranged from 0.5 to 5 m. This high elevation massif is a major factor controlling global weather patterns.  Its unusual snowfall this summer may have a significant impact.  The Hindukusch have had significant snows of 0.5-2.0 m again this week.  Delhi set cold records, northern India and Pakistan had record snows last week.   

Southern hemisphere jet is intensifying as the sun marched north cooling the Antarctic.  It is now driving several large deep storms (976 to 936 mb) circling the Antarctic. Antarctic still has large areas in the interior below -40 to -65º C as measured in Windy’s satellite surface temperatures - even this January was reporting below -40ºC - a year without summer.   On 3 Sept the South Pole reported -74.9ºC (-102ºF) and -80ºC at Vostok…  Last week as the Antarctic begins cooling into Fall. Vostok broke -50ºC in December and -60 in March. This week the temperature again fell below -100ºF.   Howling blizzards are still circling the Antarctic coast with 30 to 50 kt winds near these storms.  The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea are 98% and 100% sea Ice covered respectively.  SEA ICE is now increasing rapidly.  McMurdo Base has been quite cold at -19 to -25ºC setting records and grounding aircraft in September.  Temperatures in the Antarctic are cooling, and remaining significantly below normal. This week McMurdo rose to -19º C. The Antarctic set a November record cold of -60ºC.  December and now January are setting new cold summer records: On Jan 4, 2024, the minimums at Concordia, JASE2007 AWS and Vostok were all, once again, below -40C, coming in at -40.8C, -40.2C and -40.1C, respectively.  The South Pole set its 3rd coldest March record at -60ºC this week.The sun is moving N, so the cold is settling in down under.  South Georgia Island had snows reaching 53-76 cm this week.


Southern Africa set cold records and snow as deep cyclonic storms march across the South Atlantic pumping Antarctic Air northward.  Even Madagascar and Reunion Island set new cold records and had some snow in October 2023. Record snow fell in late October 2023.
 
AUSTRALIA has had a variety of summer weather.  Antarctic highs set new cold records in June and July and are continuing to set cold records.  Sydney set a new cold summer record when it failed to reach 32ºC (89.6ºF) in December 2022. Australia’s Victoria and South Australia had some much below normal temperatures and cold records to -2.7ºC.  Western Australia cooled as the Antarctic waves moved north. Frosts developed in Queensland and the NW Territories - in subtropical Australia!  This week large areas of Australia continued to have heavy rain : Darwin 150-500 mm, N Queensland had 95-162 mm as tropical cyclones hit. However, much of Australia had significant rains: Canberra 50 mm. Alice Springs remained cool at 20-25 ºC. Normally we see 30 to 45ºC in the satellite surface temperatures on windy.com but Alice Springs remained in the 20s with a couple 40ºC days. The cloud top temperatures near Darwin were -80ºC in deep thunderstorms.  Last week a major Antarctic cold front moved northward over Australia triggering heavy rains up to Alice Springs.  Monthly cold records were set in March.  Note: Jennifer Marohasy discusses Australian forecasts and observations every week.

JENNIFER MAROHASY’s latest: https://jennifermarohasy.com/2024/01/cyclone-jasper-bom-forecasting-getting-to-the-truth/


Note: 2023 was the first time since 1987 when  Australia’s mountains had snow on the ground all year.  The mean February temperature was 0.2ºC below normal making the summer mean temp 0.5ºC below normal. New Zealand continues to increase snows over the South Island with  20-70 cm and heavy rain at low elevations on the West coast 100-300 mm.  Note: October 25-30, 2023 the interior of Australia had satellite surface temperatures from 10 to 31ºC - spring was here with a few cool highs. During the past weeks, February 1-26, it was much cooler followed by a few 30-40ºC days. Last week the deserts were 10-15ºC behind an Antarctic front. Last week the Snowy range had 11 cm - an early start to winter.

 South America was warm, but cold fronts are predicted to take temperatures 5-10ºC below normal next week. The Andes continued to build their glaciers (1-3 m). South American snow was at record levels.  Patagonia had significant snows and skiing in the Andes continued in November 2023. Surface temperatures reached 30ºC this week in Patagonia.  Argentina and Brazil continue to be warm,  yet, some Antarctic cold fronts have triggered thunderstorms and locally heavy rains (100-300 mm) in the South of Brazil by Iguazu Falls.  The Iguazu region had heavy rains and floods in contrast to a record drought in the Amazon Basin.  However, the past month had heavy rain in the upper headwaters of the Rio Negro and Amazon Rivers.  Deep thunderstorms with top temperatures of -70 to -80ºC are helping mitigate the drought. These mesoscale convective complexes can dump 100-200+ mm.  Rio and Sao Paulo had flash floods and have remained wet.  Columbia had heavy rains (200-700 mm) that are also mitigating its drought.

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,-66.653,-60.776,4,i:pressure,m:NPaelA  

For those interested in understanding the current weather, I have documented events in the Albums showing model, satellite, radar, images.

New 2/26/24
Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7

WSJ: How Climate Policy Went Wrong:


https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-climate-policy-went-wrong-new-aerosal-study-energy-subsidies-carbon-tax-4e437371?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

A new documentary on climate: Well worth viewing —

"Climate: The Movie" highlights a different perspective on the climate change debate and is supported by scientists who have signed the Clintel's World Climate Declaration. This group of researchers seeks to present an alternative narrative in the face of the dominant discourse.


Electroverse provides an excellent source of extremes not reported in the MSM:
Latest Extremes: 29 April 2024


Europe Breaks Historic Low Temperature Records As Rare Spring Snow Falls On Major Cities; + Establishment Obfuscations
April 23, 2024 Cap Allon
Europe Breaks Historic Low Temperature Records As Rare Spring Snow Falls On Major Cities
Europe has endured a violent swing between extremes this month.
“April 2024 will go down as one of the most incredible flips on record … Summer to winter for some,” so say the experts.
Following a spell of anomalous spring warmth, exceptional cold is now striking the likes of Italy where dozens of low temperature records have fallen (for the time of year).
Italians have been enduring some of the coldest daily highs in books dating back 100+ years, to 1873. And even at low elevations, Tmaxes have struggled to 7C (44.6F).
“Absolutely historic,” writes @extremetemps on X.
In France, the southern city of Nice, with 4.4C (39.9F), has set it lowest late-April temperature since 1951. Technically that’s true, but that 1951 reading was actually set at night. Monday’s 4.4C occurred during the day which, according to researchers, “probably hasn’t happened [in the French Riviera] since the Little Ice Age.”


https://electroverse.info/europe-low-temperature-records-rare-snow-establishment-obfuscations/ 


Similarly in Denmark’s capital Copenhagen, a very cold day was endured there. “When the final numbers are in it may turn out to have been the second-coldest day in 250 years this late in the spring,” writes local weather researcher Sebastian Pelt (certainly the coldest since 1941). Elsewhere, Jægersborg’s 2.7C (36.9F) made for Denmark’s lowest daily max this late since 1988.
Tryvannshøgda, Norway posted -4.4C (24.1F) overnight Monday, the lowest temperature so late in spring since 1973.
As well as one of the coldest late-April’s on record, this will go down as one of Europe’s snowiest, and all. Nations have gone from summer-like warmth to heavy late-season snow in a matter of days.
In Albania, for example, local media reported Monday that “heavy snowfalls have continued with high intensity.” The city of Puka has received 25 cm (10 inches) so far. Heavier falls have been noted elsewhere, with plows required in Bogë-Theth:
While in Helsinki, a major ‘blackwinter’ event (or ‘takatalvi’, as the Finns say) is unfolding there:
Referring to the record books, the last time Finland’s capital saw more snow this late into spring was 106 years ago, in 1918:

Europe’s violent swing between extremes has been amplified by spring (a volatile season) but they are expected during times of low solar activity.
As has been contended for many years now: Reduced energy entering the jet streams is changing their straight ZONAL flow to a wavy MERIDIONAL one, where a region’s weather is determined by which ‘side’ of the stream it’s on. If it is located ‘above’ the stream (in the NH) then it’s in for a spell of unseasonably cold conditions–open to influxes of Arctic air; while conversely, if the region is ‘under’ the jet stream then it is set for anomalously hot conditions–subject to air masses dragged up from the tropics.
‘Polar Amplification’ is the theory most-used when trying to explain-away those pesky cold outbreaks, but it is far from widely agreed upon, even in AGW circles.
The theory states that, “because the Earth’s polar regions are warming more quickly than the rest of the world, the temperature contrast that drives jet streams has decreased (making for weaker streams)”.
However, for it to work BOTH poles need to be warming, which simply isn’t the case.
Temperatures in the Arctic are threatening to plateau, with ice holding up incredibly well of late. While across the Antarctic, the continent is cooling, has been for decades, yet the southern jets are simultaneously weakening which debunks the Polar Amplification theory, meaning something else must be controlling the jets. Solar activity is my contention.
Antarctica has been the bane of the ‘global warming narrative’ for decades.
Official data reveals East Antarctica, which covers two thirds of the continent, has cooled 2.8C over the past 40-or-so years, with West Antarctica cooling 1.6C.
Moreover, that cooling has only intensified in recent years.


Following its coldest winter (April -Sept) on record in 2021, Antarctica has been posting colder-than-average months ever since.
The below graphic shows the mean monthly anomalies from Oct 2023 – March 2024 for two key climate stations, South Pole and Vostok. All months have been colder-than-average at both stations vs reference periods 1991-2020 and 1958-2023, respectively.
The researchers note that over the last seven decades, the Antarctic ice sheet (home to 90% of Earth’s surface freshwater) has “modestly expanded” and warming has been “nearly non-existent” over much of the ice sheet (i.e. the majority of the ice sheet has cooled, as evidenced in their own graphic above).
Given this unalarming reality, it is even more telling when the likes of the BBC and CNN devote the majority of their ink to the small pocket of warming confined to the Antarctic Peninsula, warming that 1) can be explained by natural mechanisms (such as an uptick in the region’s volcanic activity, for one) and also 2) is more than offset by EVERYWHERE ELSE cooling.
Carbon dioxide isn’t the boogeyman, and I would go so far as to say that the majority of scientists know this. The historic and paleo climate data are unmistakably clear. The issue is funding, and also dogma. No grants are awarded for research that isn’t grounded on the premise that a changing climate is due to human prosperity (i.e. the burning of cheap and reliable fossil fuels), and researchers know better than to publicly share what they really think given the professional repercussions, which include smearing, defunding and deplatforming.

No Need For Category 6 Hurricane Designation; Record Cold Strikes Northern Ontario; Rare April Snow Continues Across Europe; + “Earth Is Headed Into A New Little Ice Age”…
April 24, 2024 Cap Allon
No Need For Category 6 Hurricane Designation
A growing number of CAGW advocates are calling for a category 6 hurricane designation on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.
These calls are baseless however, and do nothing but further-expose the propagation of dumb by the useful idiots of academia.
Plotting the global total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) by year from 1980 to 2023 (a calculation that integrates each tropical cyclone’s intensity and duration, summing up the total for each year), no meaningful trend is revealed in the satellite record.


https://electroverse.info/cat-6-record-cold-canada-april-snow-europe-new-little-ice-age/ 


Record Cold Strikes Northern Ontario
Arctic cold has invaded Ontario this week, setting records in the northwest reserve of Kitchenuhmaykoosib Inninuwug.
Thermometers Tuesday morning sank to -19C (-2.2F), smashing the old record (for the day) of -11.7C (10.9F) from 2017. These are “extreme cold conditions for spring,” reports netnewsledger.com, with frostbite a real concern.
The mercury is forecast to reach -17C (1.4F) early Wednesday morning, likely setting another daily record.
Fierce chills have been gripping this part of the world of late. Much of the North American continent, in fact, has been battling a descending polar air mass, from Kitchenuhmaykoosib in northern Ontario all the way down to Laredo in southern Texas.

Rare April Snow Continues Across Europe
Europe’s biting cold is persisting, intensifying even, as is the out-of-season snow.
Germany’s tallest mountain, Zugspitze (9,718 feet) has received 5 feet of snow. Zugpitze Ski Area is celebrating “perfect conditions” as it undertakes summer preparations.
Away from the Alps, much of Europe has been blanketed this week — from Scandinavia and Scotland, down to the Pyrenees, and out east across the likes of Slovakia and Ukraine.
On Tuesday morning, a thick layer of snow greeted much of Latvia, including the Kurzeme District.
Residents there have reported as much as a 20 cm (8 inches) of rare late-April snow
Forecasts call for frosts in the coming nights, down to a crop-threatening low of -5C (23F). Cold is the bigger concern for Europe right now, particularly for the growers.
Adding to the record lows reported yesterday, a remarkable -15.7C (3.7F) has been posted at Rolava, Czech Republic — the country’s coldest late-April low on record.

“Earth Is Headed Into A New Little Ice Age”
One Ukrainian the media refuses to adorn with airtime, pity and phony applause (perhaps the only one) is Professor Valentina Zharkova, an astrophysicist now based at the Northumbria University, Newcastle, England.


Due to changing solar activity, the Earth is headed into a new Little Ice Age, warns Zharkova, and “there’s nothing we can do about it.”
As reported last week by German website report24.news, “This is due to the changing solar activity,” explains Zharkova, who expects, via her magnetic field and TSI analysis, that Earth’s average temperature will fall by 1C over the next 30 years.
When the Sun is less active, its decreasing magnetic field leads to a decrease in radiation intensity, continues report24.news. Less solar radiation inevitably means less heat. According to Zharkova, such a change occurs every 350-400 years, they’re called Grand Solar Minimums (GSMs), and the professor believes we officially entered one in 2020, one that won’t abate until 2053.
Per her latest study (Zharkova et. al 2023), Earth’s Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has increased by approx 1 to 1.5 W/m² from its depths in 1700 to its “maximum amplitude” in cycle 24 (2020). This resulted in a global temperature increase of about 1.5C.
Over the next 30 years however Earth will experience a period of significantly reduced solar output which will lead to a climate “similar to the Maunder Minimum” (1645-1715 CE). Zharkova is expecting Earth to be just 0.5C warmer than it was in 1700.
This would be a problem. Cold kills. The Maunder Minimum was one of the strongest GSMs on record. As documented by NASA, it sent Europe and North America into a “deep freeze”:
“From 1650 to 1710, temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere plunged when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Maunder Minimum. During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun, and the overall brightness of the Sun decreased slightly. Already in the midst of a colder-than-average period called the Little Ice Age, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze: alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland; sea ice crept south from the Arctic; and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly—an event that is rare today.”
In the report24.news article, Zharkova speaks a word or two to the upcoming cold: “I only feel sympathy for the people who have invested in solar [power] systems. During the Maunder Minimum, there were years when there was no summer at all — there was a brief spring, then fall, then winter again. And if there’s snow on your solar panels or the sky is cloudy, they’re useless.”

Frost Damage Reported From France To Ukraine; Growers In Canada And Northeast Also Suffer; + Australia To Shiver Into May, Defying BoM Predictions
April 25, 2024 Cap Allon
Frost Damage Reported From France To Ukraine
“We are really at the critical frost threshold for apple trees and pears” said Mathieu Tissot, producer of the Tissot orchards in Haute-Savoie, France following several below-freezing nights.
Tissot orchards produce 1,600 tonnes of apples and pears each year, but recent frosts have threatened that yield. For the past week or so, record cold has hit.
“We had three nights including a very significant night where we went down to -2.3C (27.9F),” said Mathieu, “the critical frost threshold for apple trees and pears”.
Mathieu said gusty winds have helped his buds to some degree (wind reduces the formation of frost from radiative cooling), but now the breeze has died down and the cold has intensified. “We had to start the fight again last night,” he said.
In scenes repeated across France, wind machines are being used to propel hot air around orchard and vineyards. “We spend every 8 to 10 minutes in the same place to allow the plant to dry,” explained Mathieu.
More traditional ‘frost fires’ have been lit up and down the country.


https://electroverse.info/frosts-from-france-to-ukraine-american-growers-suffer-australia-to-shiver-into-may/ 


The true extent of the losses won’t be known for weeks, but they look extensive.
“This period of cold calms the sap and we are afraid that the fruit will fall naturally. We will [know the damage] within two weeks, we cannot have it immediately. We are trying to save the flowers,” said Mathieu Tissot.
Not confined to France, this week’s crop-wrecking freeze is sweeping Switzerland, too:
And as far east as Ukraine, losses have hit here and all — for apples, pears and stone fruits, as per a preliminary EastFruit report.
The country’s main apple growing region, Vinnytsia, has fared the worst with some farms there reporting 50+% losses following overnight lows of -3C (26.6F), and beyond.
Less extensive frost damage has been noted in the Chernivtsi region, of maybe 15%.
Stone fruits losses in the Mykolaiv region have been noted, for cherries and apricots.
Looking ahead, a brief reprieve will be enjoyed by central regions next week. But European growers should prepare to relight those frost fires around May 7 when a comparable mass of polar cold descends on the continent–as per latest GFS runs:  see Album


Growers In Canada And Northeast Also Suffer
Damaging frosts have hit North America this week and all, particularly Eastern Canada and the Northeast United States.
Arctic air has dropped southward into the Upper Midwest and the Northeast in recent days, setting off snow in parts of the northern tier and also bring damaging frosts and freezes to many growing regions.
The batch of air, encapsulated by a dome of high pressure, could run into the weekend.
As in Europe, frosts have seen orchard and vineyard operators use wind machines and fires in order to raise the temperature in their fields by a few degrees. Bud-break and leaf-out has already occurred across many varieties, increasing the odds of damage.
“Widespread low temperatures in the 20s to the low 30s are in store from much of the Great Lakes region to the central Appalachians, the interior mid-Atlantic and much of New England on Thursday morning,” report AccuWeather.
“The urban heat island effect may prevent frost in some large cities but only to a certain point. There is the risk of frost reaching some coastal areas of the Northeast on Thursday and Friday mornings, including in Boston and Philadelphia, as well as New York City and Washington, D.C. Frost is a concern around Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Pittsburgh — at least for Thursday morning.”


Australia To Shiver Into May, Defying BoM Predictions


Those Bureau of Meteorology forecasts calling for the hottest autumn/winter ever continue to look nothing but pie in the sky, agenda-driving claptrap.
Record-breaking lows and early-season snows was the story back in March and early-April, and now looking ahead, those cold-anomalies appear set to persist and even intensify into May–as per latest GFS runs:
Another Meter Of Snow Hits The Alps; Europe’s Crop Losses Worsen: “The Biggest Disaster Of The Last 100 Years”; + “Journalists Should Do Their Job”
April 26, 2024 Cap Allon
Another Meter Of Snow Hits The Alps
The Alps’ snowy spring shows no sign of abating with a host of resorts posting a meter (3.3 feet) of fresh powder since Wednesday. This adds to the impressive falls of last week, where Gstaad’s Glacier 3000–for example–logged 1.5m (5 feet).
At the start of this week, Austria’s Stubai Glacier in Tirol (see featured image), received almost 4 foot of snowfall. Owing to this, it is now posting Europe’s deepest snowpack, a remarkable 5.7 meters (almost 19 feet).


https://electroverse.info/another-meter-of-snow-hits-the-alps-europes-crop-losses-worsen-the-biggest-disaster-of-the-last-100-years-journalists-should-do-their-job/

As a result, resorts officials have announced their staying open until late-May.
Switzerland’s Engelberg, also open into May, is the latest to report a meter (in just 72 hours) making for a depth of 4 meters (13 feet). In total, more than 30 ski regions are still open in the Alps, with half of those planning to stay open into May (at least).
As reported by weathertoski.co.uk, the last week-or-so has seen temperatures in the Alps hold some 10C below normal, “about as cold a spell of late season weather that we can remember. There has been plenty of snow too … the snow level has also been very low for late April … down to 300m (<1,000 ft). Needless to say, snow conditions have been amazing,” concludes the report.
Just a few months back, The Guardian decreed that ski resorts in the Alps were battling for a future:
After a lackluster January and February –pounced upon by the aforementioned vultures and spun as evidence of climate apocalypse– the Alps has been enjoying heavy snowfall ever since. So much snow has fallen in fact that resorts are pushing back their closing dates. But this isn’t deemed newsworthy fOr SoMe ReAsOn.

Europe’s Crop Losses Worsen: “The Biggest Disaster of The Last 100 Years”
While the cold and snow is cause for celebration for ski resorts, it’s proving disastrous for European growers.
Winter’s return has delivered bud-wrecking frosts from France to Ukraine, as reported yesterday; freezes that have now intensified and expanded further with growers in the Netherlands, Poland and the Czech Republic among the latest casualties.
As reported by freshplaza.com: “The continent has faced colder temperatures than initially forecast, raising concerns over food supply implications.”
Torches or ‘frost fires’ have lit-up European fields this week, a key defense against ravaging late-season frosts. Below are images of Karlín in the Czech Republic as Moravian winegrowers prepared for a freezing Thursday night:
But the fight has been lost for many Czech growers.
April cold records have been set, even a national one, as overnight lows hit -15C (5F) and feet of snow clipped the mountains.
According to a ČTK news report, this polar outbreak has destroyed almost the entire fruit harvest in the western part of the country, with the damage expected to exceed one billion koruna ($43 million). While in Moravia, the main district in the east (pictured above) 50% losses have been documented, with that number expected to rise as the out-of-season cold persists.
The head of the country’s Union of Gardeners, Martin Ludvik, has called the April frosts “one of the biggest disasters for the industry in the last 100 years,” adding “the damage was so great because the weather had been unusually warm in the previous weeks and the fruit trees were in full bloom,” he said.
Indeed, swings between extremes have compounded the problem. Since mid-April, Europe has registered a drastic cooldown, transitioning from record highs to record lows.
Franjo Crnković, a fruit farmer in Croatia: “It was very warm, we even had temperatures of up to 30 [86F] one day, and then all of a sudden it dropped to minus. The fruits and all of this are all destroyed, it’s over, if there are any apples left it will be [a miracle].”
Similarly, strawberry farms in Poland have suffered lows of -8C (17.6F), with bonfires doing little to mitigate the impact. The preceding warm phase, which saw thermometers exceed 25C (77F), induced extensive blooming. Young fruit flower buds can withstand lows of around -2C (28.4F). The current conditions, far exceeding that, have led growers to anticipate near total losses, describing the situation as “dire” and projecting a stark increase in fruit prices for the year.
“[The buds] simply won’t stay on the trees,” said Polish fruit grower Jarosław Głąb, “everything is falling down.”
Looking ahead, some warmth will return to central regions next week, only to be chased by another swing back to winter:


Journalists Should Do Their Job”
The drive for Net Zero is a catastrophe for the people. It is a dastardly money and power grab masked as environmentalism. But it’s a drive that is exhausting itself. It’s pushed too hard and is now in pieces. The people have awoken, finally.
More than $6 trillion has been spent globally on renewable energy over the past few decades, including vast sums on 300,000 wind turbines. Yet fossil fuels still account for more than 80% of the world’s energy consumption, where it stood at the end of the last century, with the economic behemoths of China and India only increasing their reliance on coal and gas.
UK journalist/political presenter Andrew Neil has been calling out the circus for years.
It’s a pity Neil didn’t do the same when it came to the criminal COVID-19 lockdowns, but that’s another story.
In a recent addressing (or dressing down) of the government’s plans (or lack thereof), he said this: “In this very building, in this Parliament, there was near unanimity in going for Net Zero. I’m not sure there was even ever a debate on it, it just became the law of the land. It is when there’s a consensus like that, that journalists should do their job.”
Video courtesy of Net Zero Watch on X.


https://twitter.com/NetZeroWatch .


But there are hoops, hurdles and rules — truth isn’t enough, particularly when it comes to anything ‘global warming’.
Journalists are being handed a guide instructing them on how to “properly” report on extreme weather and climate change. The guide blatantly seeks to limit investigative endeavors and instead promote a single, universal take on the topic.
This World Weather Attribution initiative is supported by the University of Oxford and Imperial College London (the latter should ring a bell to those in the UK, with Imperial College now synonymous with doom-and-gloom –and woefully inaccurate– COVID-19 modelling), and its guide is intended to “help” journalists navigate this key question: “Was this event caused by climate change?”
“First, it introduces the science of ‘extreme event attribution’ — the method of attributing (or not) the degree to which the weather event was influenced by climate change,” reads the guide’s introduction.
“Second, it lays out the statements that can reliably be made about some of the extreme weather types of greatest public interest, even when no specific scientific study is being performed. This is based on current state-of-the-art knowledge using studies of recent extreme events and the latest IPCC report.
“And further down, it provides an easy-to-read checklist for each type of extreme weather event.”
Clearly, this guide is antithetical to true journalism. It reads more like a 1984 boot camp seeking to restrict a journalist’s curiosity and ability to dig, which will ultimately render the profession obsolete. Forwarding their global warming agenda is clearly the aim here, but said agenda would be just as well served with automated bots programmed to assign any gust of wind or passing cloud to ‘the climate emergency–which is basically what they’re getting. They want journalism, by its definition, dead.
“Every heatwave in the world is now made stronger and more likely to happen because of human-caused climate change,” continues the guide. “Journalists should be confident of attributing any extreme heat to human caused climate change.”
What we’re watching is a state propaganda wheel turning in real time.
–It’s sickening to see, that stomach-churning nervous kind.
The guide stumbles on numerous occasions, unsurprisingly. In fact, almost every other paragraph is a slap in the face to honest scientific inquiry.
It flat-out lies and all: “Every instance of extreme cold across the world has decreased in likelihood and intensity due to climate change.” Their own doctrine calls that one out: “Cold outbreaks are expected to increase in intensity as the Arctic warms” … “It seems very counterintuitive and surprising that a warmer planet can actually increase your odds of experiencing severe winter weather events–but that’s what our research has shown,” said Judah Cohen, principal scientist at Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research.

Then you have Kristina Dahl, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, who has a more reasoned take: “It’s a very active area of research and something that scientists are passionately debating and trying to figure out at the moment. It’s definitely not settled science.” Watch out Dahl, you’re verging perilously close to those guardrails.
Below is The Bible’s Guide’s “easy-to-read checklist for each type of weather event”:

UK Breaks Long-Standing Cold Record; Heavy Spring Snow Sweeps Northern India; Antarctica To -77C (-106.6F); + The Sea Ice Fallacy
April 29, 2024 Cap Allon
UK Breaks Long-Standing Cold Record
Britain has been cold of late. UK tabloids are even drawing comparisons to the Tambora eruption of 1816 and the subsequent freeze, calling 2024 ‘a year without a spring’ as thermometers continue to struggle even into late-April.
As reported by the Mirror: “Back in 1816, the enormous eruption of Mount Tambora beckoned in what has become known as the ‘Year Without Summer’. The historic blast sent an ash cloud into the atmosphere that blocked out the sun for months on end, killing crops across the world and plunging millions of people into a seemingly never-ending stretch of cold misery.”
Comparing 2024 to 1816 is an exaggeration, you don’t need me to tell you, but the UK has been cold — a reality that jars with alarmist predictions.
Back in March, senior meteorologist Jim Dale warned of a “frightening” hot summer in April “as a result of climate change”. In an interview with GB News, Dale said: “We will see hot weather start to bake in during the course of April.”
Wrong.
On Friday, April 27, a low of -6.3C (20.7F) was observed in the Lake District, England — the lowest temperature ever recorded in the United Kingdom for the date (in books stretching back to the 1800s), beating the -6.1C (21F) set in Glenlivet, Scotland in 1956.
The chill then persisted through the weekend just gone, delivering a low of -5.3C (22.5F) on Sunday. And looking to the next week, the mercury is forecast to continue its struggle to find double-digit highs.
Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, explained to the BBC why things have been so cold: “We’ve got a northerly wind bringing in very cold air from Greenland and the Arctic. There are still frozen seas up there so it’s coming from a very cold direction.”
–A natural explanation for the cold, of course; whereas anything hot is inexorably linked to human prosperity, naturally.


https://electroverse.info/uk-breaks-cold-record-spring-snow-india-antarctica-cold-sea-ice-fallacy/ 



Heavy Spring Snow Sweeps Northern India
As a heatwave grips portions of India’s south, fierce winter chills and heavy snows are hitting the north — the other side of the story The Guardian et. al refuseto mention.
If India’s toasty south is due to “human-caused climate breakdown,” as is the official claim, then what’s causing the biting freeze and disruptive snowfall a few-hundred miles to the north? Wait, I know this one — also “human-caused climate breakdown”!
“Winter is late this time shifting towards summer,” adds the poster of the above video, Rattan Dhillon.
I’ve noticed this is a theme playing out across much of the Northern Hemisphere.
A drawn-out/returning cold season spells misery for farmers.
Just ask European growers:


Antarctica To -77C (-106.6F)
Antarctica has recorded a new low temperature for 2024 — the anomalous -77C (-106.6F) set on April 27 at the French-Italian Concordia research facility. The Russian base Vostok, for those interested, posted a daily minimum of 75.5C (-103.9F).
The Antarctic has been shown to be cooling ever since reliable (satellite) temperature data has been available to us, since 1979.
The year 2021 saw the South Pole suffer its coldest winter ever recorded (April – Sept) in books dating back to the 1950s. And the freeze has endured.
Highlighting a few examples:
November 2022’s average of -40.4C made for coldest November since 1987. December 2022’s average of -29.1C turned out to be the South Pole’s coldest December since 2006. In fact, Nov 2022 to Feb 2023 went down as second-coldest such period ever recorded.
The year 2023, despite the volatile sea ice (not the ice on the Plateau, by the way), saw the cold records continue to fall.
In January (i.e. ‘summer’), readings well-below -40C were a regular feature. On Jan 29, Vostok posted -48.7C, the station’s lowest January temperature ever recorded (in operation data dating back to 1957).


The Sea Ice Fallacy
The data reveal Antarctica is cooling. While up north, a pause is ongoing at the Arctic. These realities are big problems for the AGW Party.
The Antarctic is home to 90% of Earth’s freshwater, all of it locked up as ice. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that consistently cold temperatures means that all that ice, all 25,000,000 gigatons of it, isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Alarmists have trouble applying logic like this, owing to a relentless, decades-long propaganda campaign.
2023 was a ‘blip’, another example of the wild volatility experienced by Antarctic Sea Ice Extent which, by the way, is now riding above the year 1980 (on par with much of the 1980s in fact) and also fast-approaching the 1979-1990 average:

2023 was a ‘blip’, another example of the wild volatility experienced by Antarctic Sea Ice Extent which, by the way, is now riding above the year 1980 (on par with much of the 1980s in fact) and also fast-approaching the 1979-1990 average:

Sea ice extent at Antarctica’s northern cousin, the Arctic, is currently at its highest level in many years, higher than it was 35 years ago, particularly around Alaska, and also comfortably above the 2011-20 average.

This is a reality the paint-tossers among us willfully ignore. But their delusions run far deeper than turning a blind eye to a sea ice map. Every aspect of their fantasy is built upon a denial of science. Case in point is Arctic ice. Even if the Arctic was to melt in its entirety, which it shows zero signs of doing—of course, any increase to sea levels would be negligible, basically non-existent.
This is because the Arctic, unlike Antarctica, has no land beneath it, it is a giant floating ice cube, and like ice cubes in a cup of water, melting them doesn’t change the water level, the water has already been displaced.
There is a very negligible rise due to this being freshwater added to saltwater (freshwater being a little less dense) but NASA say the difference is “minimal,” contributing just 1 millimeter to sea levels since 1994.
Alarmists still do not understand basic science:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

22 April 2024

 

Intense storms from California to Dubai punctuated our spring weather this week.  California continued to have very late rain and snow.  The April 15th California storm dumped snow in the Rockies and deepened into a 980 mb low stretching again from Baffin Island to the Gulf of Mexico.  Its cold front triggered severe weather and heavy rain. The Canadian Arctic air (1030 mb) is setting freeze warnings from Oregon to Tennessee.  The Grand Solar Minimum signature weather is here! CNN warned of freezing and hard freeze this morning from the Ohio Valley to NY.  More mountain snow is predicted of the next 10 daysfrom the Sierra to the Rockies.

 

Europe enjoyed spring-like warm weather; however a deep trough brought cool weather to Spain and Portugal and significant snow to the Pyrenees and Alps and Carpathians.
Rains and cool air return next week with temperatures dropping to freezing (from 30ºC in 24 hr) with snow in the Alps and mountains from San Marino to Bucharest and Skopje. Freeze warnings are in effect from France to the Balkans.  Farmers and vintners are worried about their crops at this delicate period.

 

Dubai and SE Iran had quite a rare flash flood event in the Desert.  This extreme storm creates an interesting question for the alarmists regarding thermodynamics and their lack of understanding.  Yes, warm air has more energy and moisture carrying capacity.  The dry deserts have plenty of hot air but no floods.  Many are located near oceans - plenty of moisture.  The global warming alarmists would have you believe the deserts will have severe storms given their simplistic view.  The Dubai storm was triggered by a larger scale disturbance that could tap the normally available energy and trigger a record storm.  It was very limited in area.  I posted the satellite images.  There is no relationship to CO2 alarmism, but they must claim every possible extreme event.  Mother Nature is doing as she always does - protect us naturally.  Even in Columbia where a severe drought dried reservoirs as seen on CNN, today the ECMWF model predicted 100 to 550 mm of rain this week.  That should help mitigate the drought.

 

The southern hemisphere continued to cool and set cold records in the Antarctic with locally heavy snows triggered by deep 950-940 mb storms.  The circumpolar jet is increasing in intensity with a wavy pattern that dumps heavy snow in the Andes and Coastal Antarctic mountains.  Sea Ice is increasing as interior temperatures fall into the -70s ºC.

 

THE FOLLOWING TABLES show the observed temperatures at key points from Greenland to Vostok and the ECMWF 10-day snowfall forecasts at key points around the world where glaciers may be receding or growing.

 

OBSERVED TEMPERATURES and ECMWF 10-DAY SNOWFALL FORECASTS

 https://photos.app.goo.gl/D4FSQPjmzrAwbS2q9


 

 


 You can see the magnitude of the storms on windy.com and in NOAA’s GOES satellite imagery: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G18&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

 

Temperature anomalies are tucked on:

 

 tropicaltidbits.com
see: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024021212&fh=6

 

See details below in CURRENT EXTREMES: 11 March 2024

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-11-13&id=0927f461-b5cc-4bbf-8f64-04383cf830f2

 

The windy.com wave map shows the deep storms:

 

see:  https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,67.842,-1.230,3,i:pressure

 

Check out the albums below for detailed charts, satellite images, and observations:

 

Fall - Winter 2023:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6

 

 Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7  

 

Review:

 

Atmospheric Rivers dominate precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere from Alaska to Greenland and Europe.  These ARs are associated with intense cyclonic storms on the jet stream that dominate the weather.  Recall tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones (Lows) and anticyclones (Highs) control our weather.  Atmospheric River forecasts quantify the model computations of moisture flux from surface to 700 mb.  This flux controls the duration and intensity of precipitation.  Remember last winter when California had a record number of intense ARs that filled the “1000 yr“  drought’s reservoirs and extended Mammoth Mountain’s ski season into August 2023. Mammoth mountain is again accumulating heavy snows with a foot a day for 7 days in the last storm.  California is drought free today as new ARs are pounding the coast again this winter triggering flash floods and debris flows in this saturated ground.  The Colorado River Basin continues to benefit from these snowstorms from Colorado to Wyoming and Utah. Early season NRCS snow water equivalent SWE is running from 100 to 120% of normal.  

 

NRCS Basin Datahttps://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#version=169&elements=&networks=!&states=!&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=any&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=true&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=2&basinOpacity=75&basinNoDataOpacity=25&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&popupBasin=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8&parameter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&monthPart=E&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&useMixedPast=true&seqColor=1&divColor=7&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2020&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&relativeDate=-1&lat=43.728&lon=-104.797&zoom=5.0

 

Atmospheric River forecast by Marty Ralph’s team:
https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/

 


An important component of the Grand Solar Minimum is an increase in clouds due to its impact on our solar system’s magnetosphere and increased numbers of deep space cosmic rays penetrating our upper atmosphere and generating cloud condensation nuclei.  Clouds produce many complex phenomena ranging from cooling as solar radiation is reflected back to space, to surface warming as heat is retained at night and radiational cooling is reduced under stratus and in fog.   On a large scale temperature gradients control the winds and jet stream dynamics.  Clouds also impact the sea surface temperature SST which can have profound impacts on the Earth’s energy budget from the El Niño to Jet stream intensity and location.  NASA is now predicting a solar maximum of cycle 25 by January 2024 with some CMEs.  Note: current climate models fail to adequately simulate clouds; hence, a serious limit to their long term predictions.  The primary critical impact of the GSM is late spring frosts and early fall frosts that limit the growing season.  it is difficult for long term models to predict these critical events accurately.

 

Volcanic activity has increased dramatically in November 2023 with two stratovolcanoes pumping huge amounts of volcanic ash into the stratosphere in the northern Hemisphere from Kamchatka, and the tropics from New Guinea.  Iceland’s seismic activity also increased significantly and resulted in a small volcanic eruption.  Stratospheric volcanic dust from volcanoes cause significant atmospheric cooling.  During the Little Ice Age there were many volcanoes associated with the Milankovitch Cycle that also contributed to the cooling.  Japan had a devastating earthquake in the last weeks.

 

During the winter, low clouds can keep the polar regions warmer, thus reducing the N-S temperature gradient that may lead to a weaker jet stream and a meridional flow.  This wavy N-S flow enhances the warm and cold sectors of storms and hence, extreme temperature swings. Thus far this winter we have a very wavy jet steam.  Have a look at my album’s examples.

 

The El Niño continues to weaken yet it covers a large area; however, so far California is following the intense winter weather associated with an El Niño. The latest SST observations show cold water below the thin warm El Niño water, thus indicating the likelihood of a la Niña forming soon.   NCAR scientists called for a severe winter.  Thus far, the Ontario-Hudson Bay 700 mb low has been pulling cold air south into the East much like last winter.  Note: the eastern N American low gyrates in the Jet, hence its impact varies. The West and High Plains are on the western edge of the deep cold air, hence, they have brief cold blasts and may benefit from the Pacific ARs heavy snow; however, they will enjoy somewhat warmer winter temperatures than the NE.  The Sudden Stratospheric Warming - SSW was predicted to pull extremely cold air into the entire US by mid-January and again in February and March.  This verified quite nicely in January - burr !  We’ll see how March goes.  It would appear that CHINA and Asia have been hit the hardest with severe cold weather this season and are now warming.

 


Dr. Valentina Zharkova, a solar expert from the Ukraine, talks about the sun’s impact on the el Niño in her interview below.  She reviews the Grand Solar Minimum and solar system impacts on climate variability.  

 

Valentina Zharkova’s interview at the end of this link provides a comprehensive review of the GSM physics from an expert in this field.  Dr. Zharkova reviews the physics, mathematics, and relationships of solar cycles, orbital mechanics, magnetosphere impacts, volcano cycles, and el Nino cycles related to the earth’s inclination…

 

https://electroverse.info/coldest-may-80n-greenland-gains-warmer-in-the-past-zharkova-interview/

 

Her primary web site:  https://solargsm.com/

 

 September recorded increases in SMB occurred +6 GT and +10 GT on 1 and 2 Sept respectively setting new records and again this week with 8-10 GT.  The accumulated SMB curve dropped to normal in December-February and is now at or above normal.  see:
 
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

 

and

 

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next3d,69.945,22.148,4,i:pressure,m:fDTafyg  
 

 

The jet stream continues strong with a sharp meridional - wavy N-S flow from N America  to Europe.    Short waves trigger storms as they become more frequent and more powerful.  Their wind shear can still spin up tornadoes in convective storms normally seen in spring and fall.  Omega blocking ridges control the speed of system movement.

 

See:
https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?awp_0_40,34.089,20.303,4,i:pressure,m:ff3agyK 

 

see: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/  

 

Snow:
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,74.902,-40.649,4,i:pressure,m:fOdadW1

 

Rain:
 https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,next10d,51.944,-74.399,4,i:pressure

 


Japan and N Korea armed a bit  with 2-38 cm of snow on the mountains of N Korea and Japan respectively with record cold and snow.  

 


TropicalTidbits.com  (forecast models) also gives you a look at the temperature departures from normal associated with these storms.  You can see the warm and cold sectors - the normal variations of global temperature.

 

The Himalayas had heavy snow on the peaks with most areas receiving 1-3 m. The Tibetan Plateau is high ~3-5 km msl with new snow from the Himalaya to Shan ranges. Total snow on the ground on 9/3/23 still ranged from 0.5 to 5 m. This high elevation massif is a major factor controlling global weather patterns.  Its unusual snowfall this summer may have a significant impact.  The Hindukusch have had significant snows of 0.5-2.0 m again this week.  Delhi set cold records, northern India and Pakistan had record snows last week.   

 

Southern hemisphere jet is intensifying as the sun marched north cooling the Antarctic.  It is now driving several large deep storms (976 to 936 mb) circling the Antarctic. Antarctic still has large areas in the interior below -40 to -75º C as measured in Windy’s satellite surface temperatures - even this January was reporting below -40ºC - a year without summer.   On 3 Sept the South Pole reported -74.9ºC (-102ºF) and -80ºC at Vostok…  Last week as the Antarctic begins cooling into Fall. Vostok broke -50ºC in December and -60 in March. This week the temperature again fell below -100ºF.   Howling blizzards are still circling the Antarctic coast with 30 to 50 kt winds near these storms.  The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea are 95% and 100% sea Ice covered respectively.  SEA ICE is now increasing rapidly.  McMurdo Base has been quite cold at -19 to -25ºC setting records and grounding aircraft in September.  Temperatures in the Antarctic are cooling, and remaining significantly below normal. This week McMurdo rose to -19º C. The Antarctic set a November record cold of -60ºC.  December and now January are setting new cold summer records: On Jan 4, 2024, the minimums at Concordia, JASE2007 AWS and Vostok were all, once again, below -40C, coming in at -40.8C, -40.2C and -40.1C, respectively.  The South Pole set its 3rd coldest March record at -60ºC this week.The sun is moving N, so the cold is settling in down under.  South Georgia Island had snows reaching 53-76 cm this week.

 


Southern Africa set cold records and snow as deep cyclonic storms march across the South Atlantic pumping Antarctic Air northward.  Even Madagascar and Reunion Island set new cold records and had some snow in October 2023. Record snow fell in late October 2023.
 
AUSTRALIA has had a variety of summer weather.  Antarctic highs set new cold records in June and July and are continuing to set cold records.  Sydney set a new cold summer record when it failed to reach 32ºC (89.6ºF) in December 2022. Australia’s Victoria and South Australia had some much below normal temperatures and cold records to -2.7ºC.  Western Australia cooled as the Antarctic waves moved north. Frosts developed in Queensland and the NW Territories - in subtropical Australia!  This week large areas of Australia continued to have heavy rain : Darwin 150-500 mm, N Queensland had 95-162 mm as tropical cyclones hit. However, much of Australia had significant rains: Canberra 50 mm. Alice Springs remained cool at 20-25 ºC. Normally we see 30 to 45ºC in the satellite surface temperatures on windy.com but Alice Springs remained in the 20s with a couple 40ºC days. The cloud top temperatures near Darwin were -80ºC in deep thunderstorms.  Last week a major Antarctic cold front moved northward over Australia triggering heavy rains up to Alice Springs.  Monthly cold records were set in March.  Note: DR Jennifer Marohasy discusses Australian forecasts and observations every week.

 

JENNIFER MAROHASY’s latest: https://jennifermarohasy.com/2024/01/cyclone-jasper-bom-forecasting-getting-to-the-truth/

 


Note: 2023 was the first time since 1987 when  Australia’s mountains had snow on the ground all year.  The mean February temperature was 0.2ºC below normal making the summer mean temp 0.5ºC below normal. New Zealand continues to increase snows over the South Island with  20-70 cm and heavy rain at low elevations on the West coast 100-300 mm.  Note: October 25-30, 2023 the interior of Australia had satellite surface temperatures from 10 to 31ºC - spring was here with a few cool highs. During the past weeks, February 1-26, it was much cooler followed by a few 30-40ºC days. Last week the deserts were 10-15ºC behind an Antarctic front. Last week the Snowy range had 11 cm - an early start to winter.

 

 South America was warm, but cold fronts are predicted to take temperatures 5-10ºC below normal next week. The Andes continued to build their glaciers (1-2 m). South American snow was at record levels.  Patagonia had significant snows and skiing in the Andes continued in November 2023. Surface temperatures reached 30ºC this week in Patagonia.  Argentina and Brazil continue to be warm,  yet, some Antarctic cold fronts have triggered thunderstorms and locally heavy rains (100-300 mm) in the South of Brazil by Iguazu Falls.  The Iguazu region had heavy rains and floods in contrast to a record drought in the Amazon Basin.  However, the past month had heavy rain in the upper headwaters of the Rio Negro and Amazon Rivers.  Deep thunderstorms with top temperatures of -70 to -80ºC are helping mitigate the drought. These mesoscale convective complexes can dump 100-200+ mm.  Rio and Sao Paulo had flash floods and have remained wet. Columbia is predicted to have 100-550 mm rains this week 22-29 April.

 

https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,-66.653,-60.776,4,i:pressure,m:NPaelA  

 

For those interested in understanding the current weather, I have documented events in the Albums showing model, satellite, radar, images.

 

New 2/26/24
Winter 2024:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7

 

WSJ: How Climate Policy Went Wrong:

 


https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-climate-policy-went-wrong-new-aerosal-study-energy-subsidies-carbon-tax-4e437371?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

 

A new documentary on climate: Well worth viewing —

 

Climate: The Movie" highlights a different perspective on the climate change debate and is supported by scientists who have signed the Clintel's World Climate Declaration. This group of researchers seeks to present an alternative narrative in the face of the dominant discourse.

 


Electroverse provides an excellent source of extremes not reported in the MSM:
Latest Extremes: 22 April 2024


Heavy Snow Slams Northwestern Iran; Europe Braces For Spring Freeze; + Bureau of Meteorology Forecasts Record-Warm Winter For Australia, Ignoring The Data (And Cooking The Books)
April 15, 2024 Cap Allon
Heavy Snow Slams Northwestern Iran
Rare mid-April snow has blanketed areas of northwest Iran, including in the town of Khalkhal.
The snow has been heavy and all, with reports suggesting 50 cm (20 inches) has fallen, resulting in widespread road closures.
In line with the snow, temperatures have also fallen in recent days — to record-challenging levels for the time of year.
This region of Iran is considered one of the agricultural hubs of the country. And as reported by ifpnews.com (who provide the below video), “the sudden cold snap has caused concern among local farmers during the spring season”.


https://electroverse.info/snow-iran-europe-spring-freeze-bureau-of-meteorology-cooking-the-books/ 


Europe Braces For Spring Freeze
While spring 2024 has delivered record-breaking cold and snow to the likes of Scandinavia and the Alps, more central and eastern regions of Europe have been enjoying unusual spring warmth, an early onset of summer.
This week, however, that anomalous heat will be disappeared by a dramatic temperature drop. Highs of 30+C (86+F) this past weekend will be replaced by single digits by mid-week as well as damaging overnight frosts/widespread lowland snows.
This return to winter will be long lived too, lasting until at least the end of the month.
Latest GFS runs reveal the swing between extremes, calling for a dive from 16C above seasonal norms on Sunday, April 14 to as low as 16C below by Wednesday, April 17–where temperatures are expected to remain for the foreseeable.
The BBC ran articles last week claiming ‘global boiling’ was to blame for Europe’s heat, adding that we’re in “uncharted territory”.
BBC ‘journalists’ were keen to ignore the position of the jet stream in their reportings of the heatwave, but now they’re more than happy to incorporate it in their analysis of this upcoming cool down. Where excretions of “planet-warming gases” were to blame for a toasty start to spring, natural forcings are of course responsible for this encroaching spring freeze (and heavy snow).

Europe is flipping from the ‘blocking high’–responsible for dragging that tropical heat northwards–to a ‘dipole pattern’ which will see a strong high pressure system park over the North Atlantic and drag down (and trap) cold polar air over the continent.
“It starts with the solid upper trough ejecting off the northeast North Atlantic on Monday,” reports severe-weather.eu, “rapidly digging towards central Europe on Tuesday and the Balkan peninsula by mid-week.”
Europe will experience a significant cooling, “an intense cold period”, continues severe-weather.eu — a return to wintry weather.
This will come as shock to the system, and, rather than supporting the CAGW theory of ‘ever hotter’, will instead add further weight to the low solar activity theory, which states: “reduced output from the sun weakens the jet stream, changing its standard ‘straight’ ZONAL flow to a ‘weak and wavy’ MERIDIONAL one” (click below for more).
Low elevation snow is forecast for many by Tuesday evening, owing to rapid a temperature decrease.

Fresh snow will accumulate across the Apennines and Carpathians of Romania and the High Tatras of Slovakia, and also across Croatia, Bosnia, and Montenegro. The Balkans could see something of an April burial by Wednesday. Italy too will cop its share.
Unsurprisingly, the Alps will continue its remarkable winter-extending run of snow, where recent totals have already made up (and more) for what was a rather lackluster Jan/Feb. Accumulations exceeding a meter (3.3ft) are easily achievable this week.
Low elevation snow is forecast for many by Tuesday evening, owing to rapid a temperature decrease.
The likes of Austria and Slovenia will see the brunt of that drop.


Fresh snow will accumulate across the Apennines and Carpathians of Romania and the High Tatras of Slovakia, and also across Croatia, Bosnia, and Montenegro. The Balkans could see something of an April burial by Wednesday. Italy too will cop its share.
Unsurprisingly, the Alps will continue its remarkable winter-extending run of snow, where recent totals have already made up (and more) for what was a rather lackluster Jan/Feb. Accumulations exceeding a meter (3.3ft) are easily achievable this week.
The fallen snow will only aid temperatures in their plunge below freezing, which in turn will threaten new plantings with hard frosts.
Many growers are warning, that will spring in full swing, that the cold-damage to orchards and vineyards could be “catastrophic”. We can expect ‘frost fires’ to be lit across Europe’s vineyards in the coming weeks, as has been an increasingly regular scene in recent years.
From the UK through France and Germany, up north, down south, and way out east, the cold will be expansive, with only the far west (i.e. Portugal) spared.
And looking ahead, the freeze looks set to intensify into next week with the snows also stepping up.
This is when the worst of the frost damage could occur, when the 850 mbar temperature anomaly chart (below) is expected to read 8-10C below average which is “beyond extreme,” according to Marko Korosec, lead forecaster for severe-weather.eu.


The impacts of El Niño, Solar Maximum, and Hunga-Tonga have also supported global temperatures in recent months (natural forcings that the BBC also opts to downplay, or fail to even mention).
However, this ‘warming trifecta’ is now waning: La Niña is forecast to return this year, Solar Cycle 25 may have already peaked, and Hunga-Tonga’s record mesospheirc injection of water vapor is (very slowly) beginning to dissipate.
Global temperatures WILL come crashing back down to early-2023 levels, i.e. back down below baseline.
Is Europe getting a taste of what’s to come…

Feet Of Spring Snow Pound Colorado; U.S. Braces For Record April Cold; Met Office’s Antarctic Sea Ice Report; + Stock Market Behaving Eerily Similar To 1929
April 18, 2024 Cap Allon
Feet Of Spring Snow Pound Colorado
Heavy snow is battering the high country this week, with a wide area, including Larimer County, receiving 3 feet.
The National Weather Service (NWS) says the aptly named Never Summer range as well as Medicine Bow saw even higher totals.
While across Colorado ski areas, snow enthusiasts are rejoicing the late season top up. In just a 24-hour period through Tuesday, well-over foot of fresh snow was reported at Loveland Ski Area, Vail Ski Resort and Copper Mountain, to name just three.


https://electroverse.info/snow-colorado-u-s-braces-for-record-april-cold-met-office-ice-report-stock-market-1929/


U.S. Braces For Record April Cold
“Protect your outside plants! A Freeze warning has been issued,” warns newstalk870, speaking to the Tri-Cities of Washington.
The NWS in Pendleton is warning of freezing temperatures in the Lower Columbia Basin and in the Yakima/Kittitas Valleys Thursday morning, with thermometers dropping to 28F – 32F, perhaps beyond.
Latest GFS runs reveal the extent of the descending polar air which could span some 30 states and stretch the length of the CONUS, from Montana to Texas (from Canada to Mexico, in fact).
Focusing on Montana, record-breaking cold is expected there, according to ktvh.com.
Cold temperatures, a biting wind chill, and areas of snow will continue for the next several days here. Overnight lows will enter the 10s across a wide area, with daily highs holding in the 30s for many. The mountains will dip into the single digits (F).
And a quick word on Europe, where “catastrophic” frosts threaten growing regions from France to the Balkans with heavy out-of-season snow to boot. Well, the big spring freeze is good for one thing: it returns those wet-eared Cassandras back to the shadows.

No Spring In Sight For Much Of Russia; Temperatures Are Falling Globally; + Ruang Volcano Erupts To 55,000 Feet
April 19, 2024 Cap Allon
No Spring In Sight For Much Of Russia
April snow is building across Russia.
Starting in the east, the likes of Magadan and Kolyma have seen substantial spring snowfalls of late which have pushed the snow depth to 58 cm (1.9 ft) in the former, setting a new record there.
Looking west, to European Russia, freezing lows and heavy snows have returned to the Leningrad region, among others.
As forecast by hmn.ru, the snow will intensify into the weekend here, “after which the Northern capital will become white with snow.”


https://electroverse.info/russia-chills-temperatures-falling-ruang-to-55000-feet/


St. Petersburg, for example, is enduring “a return of winter landscapes due to the collision of a southern cyclone with cold Arctic air.” Here, daily highs will hold around the freezing mark for the foreseeable, which, when combined with the intensifying snow, will make for chaos on the roads — a situation compounded by the vast majority of motorists having switched to summer tires.

Temperatures Are Falling Globally
Continuing West, Europe is dealing with a fierce swing between extremes this week.
In Slovenia, for example, summer crashed back to winter in less than day:
Speaking to the heavy spring snow, flakes are falling from Scandinavia and Scotland down through France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Italy, out east over the likes of Ukraine, and also down south well-into the Balkans.
Over a meter (3.3ft) is settling in some parts, with much more on the way.
Checking in with alpine webcams, these heavy snows are extending the ski season:
As per the latest forecasts, these anomalous lows and heavy snows look set to stick around.
“We thought this year Europe had been sparred from the ‘April damnation’ but hell no,” writes @extremetemps on X. “Every run the cold is worsened AND prolonged with no real end in sight. Say goodbye to your apricots for the fifth year in a row.”
What good is ‘global warming’ if year-after-year late-season freezes delay the onset of spring:

 

Ruang Volcano Erupts To 55,000 Feet
Aiding the global cool down will be this week’s powerful eruptions at Mount Ruang:
Mount Ruang, a 2,400 foot stratovolcano on Ruang Island, North Sulawesi, Indonesia has erupted at least seven times since Tuesday night, firing ash plumes as high as 55,000 feet into the sky — and so into the stratosphere.
Preliminary reports say the volcanic explosivity index (VEI) could reach 4, perhaps 5.
No casualties have been reported, but this was never expected to be a killer, rather a cooler. The cooling effects from Ruang will be felt for years to come, and should go someway to offsetting the warming caused by Hunga Tonga’s submarine spewing (VEI 5).
The Tonga eruption expelled unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere (10 – 30% extra) which has temporarily warmed the planet (water vapor being the most potent of the common greenhouse gasses and also the most abundant).
These impacts are waning naturally, but Ruang’s stratospheric injection of ash will assist in the cooling.
Latest reports reveal the plume of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) already extends over 1000 kilometers.

 

El Niño Has Officially Ended
The 2023 El Niño has ended, say the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The Pacific Ocean has “cooled substantially” in the past week.
The naturally occurring El Niño brought warmer waters to the surface of the Pacific, adding heat to the atmosphere and putting on hold the cumulative cooling effect of years of low solar activity.
The BBC, seemingly annoyed by a “quicker than expected” end to El Niño and the subsequent threat of a returning of La Niña (as it would lead to a stark drop in global temperatures), have stepped up the ‘catastrophism’, going so far as to suggest that La Niña may actually never return.
The BBC argues, with the help of the BoM, that “as the current global ocean conditions have not been observed before, inferences as to how ENSO may develop in 2024 that are based on past events may not be reliable.”
A returning La Niña is indeed a big blow to the AGW Party.
According to ‘The Science’ (linked below), El Niño should be the dominate ENSO pattern in a warming world. If La Niña ends up ruling, which appears to be the case (with NOAA forecasting 2023-24 to be the fourth La Niña winter of the last five) then something entirely different is likely playing out.

Norwegian Ski Resort On For Bumper Summer Season; Europe Freezes; Official Datasets Continually ‘Find’ More Warming; + Solar Maximum Is Near
April 22, 2024 Cap Allon
Norwegian Ski Resort On For Bumper Summer Season
The Folgefonna Glacier in Norway is being readied for the upcoming summer season, which is expected to be a bumper one given winter and spring’s record-challenging snowfall (the best since 2015, so far).
Fonna Glacier Ski Resort, one of only six ski resorts/areas in the world to open exclusively for the summer months, has seen “massive snowfalls this winter thanks to one of the coldest winters in decades,” reports snowbrains.com.
In early-March, Fonna was digging out its ski lift following a monstrous snowstorm that dropped 10+ meters (33 feet). And thanks to favorable conditions ever since, skiing is “slated to be epic this summer”.
Eyeing east, to Finland, some exceptionally late ‘ice days’ are being registered there.
Turku Airport, for example, struggled to -0.4C (31.3F) on Sunday; Jokioinen Ilmala managed a daily high of just -1.5C (29.3F); with Tampere Pirkkala Airport reaching just -2.6C (27.3F) — the latter appears to have set a new coldest April low-max (in 44 years of record keeping at the locale), pipping the -2.5C (27.5F) set back on April 1, 1998.
“None of the weather stations in Finland rose above two degrees Celsius, not even the marine stations,” writes Mika Rantanen, of the Finnish Meteorological Institute.
“Remarkable for this late in April.”


https://electroverse.info/norwegian-snow-europe-freezes-datasets-find-warming-solar-max-is-near/ 


Finland’s cold has proved long-lasting, too.
Case in point: Sunday (April 21) marked the 200th day of ‘thermal winter’ in Sodankylä Tähtelä, Lapland (a period where the daily mean temperature holds below the freezing mark). This makes 2023-24 the longest winter since 1994-95, which lasted 215 days.
Snow cover is also proving historic in these parts, having now been on the ground since Oct 8, 2023 — one of the longest-ever stretches in books dating back to 1910.
And given Europe’s ongoing freeze, which is set to run into May (more on that below), combined with the ≈70 cm (27.5 inches) of snow left on the ground, Tähtelä has a shot at breaking its all-time record-stretches for snow cover AND thermal winter, both of which stand at 231 days (Oct 3, 1968 – May 23, 1969).
Europe Freezes


It isn’t just the far north enduring an extension of winter, cold and snow have returned to much of Europe. What forecasters had feared is now playing out: catastrophic frosts across the continent’s growing regions, particularly central areas.
“The air mass is so cold for late April that it could significantly damage blooming fruit trees, vineyards, and crops,” reported @severeweatherEU as the ‘blues’ and ‘purples’ began descending — cold that is expected to persist for the foreseeable:
Over the weekend, in Serbia, -8C (17.6F) was registered in Karajukića Bunari; in Bosnia and Herzegovina, -6C (21.2F) hit Sokolac; while in Montenegro, -10C (14F) hit Kosanica — to name just three locales.

Monday is bringing an intensification of the freeze.
Heavy snow is accompanying the spring cold.
Some 70cm (27.5 inches) hit the likes of Firstalm, Upper Bravaria, Germany on Sunday:
As atmospheric scientist Wei Zhang writes:
“When adjustments are made for various reasons, you would expect half the time it would increase the warming trend and half the time it would decrease it. But every adjustment I’ve ever seen has increased the post World War II warming trend.”

Tony Heller goes further:
“It is incomprehensible to me how any serious person could look at this hockey stick of data tampering, and not recognize it as systematic fraud…”

Bureau of Meteorology Forecasts Record Warm Winter For Australia, Ignoring The Data
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, temperatures will be above average for most Aussie states this May to July, which could result in the warmest winter ever recorded by the Bureau’s inaccurate and heat-skewed network of weather stations.
It’s also going to be dry, add the BoM, but they’ve been promising Aussies drought for years now and all it ever seems to do is piss it down. Heavy early-season snows have even clipped the alpine regions of late, almost two month before resorts are due to open. This works to kill both birds with one stone: its needs to be cold to snow, and it also needs to be wet to snow.

Hurricanes 2017: All time Records

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria set all time historic records of intensity, duration and catastrophic damage.  This is byfar the worst most destructive hurricane season the United States has ever had. We have suffered hundreds of deaths, massive destruction of property and land, and Billions in damage.  These hurricanes were well predicted and emergency evacuations ordered days in advance of the landfall thanks to NOAA's forecast teams, emergency managers and local governments. 

2015 Year of Extremes

Selected Extreme events of 2015

LATEST Major Weather Events

30 NOV 2015:  COP21 Climate Talks in Paris


Leaders from over 180 countries from around the world are meeting in Paris to develop a comprehensive plan to curb greenhouse emissions and develop renewable energy.  President Obama noted that terrorists were unable to stop such an important meeting of world leaders from taking place.  President Obama clearly stated that the US has taken significant steps to slowing emissions and are now producing renewable energy that is competitive with conventional fuels.  He stated specific goals for emission reduction of 17% by 2020 and 25% by 2025 and requested that other countries do the same with significant commitments with capitol to drive down costs of clean energy.   The US supports emission reductions, but will not sign an agreement!!!!
Data from 2015 indicate that this is the warmest year on record based on surface measurements.  Extreme weather continues around the world from record winters to extremely hot summers.  Today, Bejing’s pollution set records 17 times greater than world health standards.

7 Dec 2015:  Extreme floods in Channi, India and UK.

India battling deadly floods in Chennai
 Weeks of heavy rain and flooding have inundated Chennai, India
   

In 24 hours, Chennai received as much rain as London would in 6 months (CNN)Weeks of heavy rain and flooding have knocked out power, suspended public transportation and left people stranded in Chennai, one of India's largest cities. It has rained 34 of the past 40 days and the heavy-rain-warning continues, according to CNN meteorologists. The rain warning for the southern Indian states of Tamil Nadu and neighboring Puducherry are forecast through December 5, according to India's main weather office.

UK has extreme Precipitation:

Office:  Rain and storms soaked the northern U.K. this weekend, prompting evacuations, severe flood warnings and the arrival of the army in the worst-hit areas.  Rory Stewart, the British floods minister, told the BBC that Storm Desmond has “broken all the U.K. rainfall records” and unleashed “a completely unprecedented amount of water.”
Drone footage shot above Kendal, a flood-hit town in Cumbria, shows the flooded cricket ground and people wading through inches of water.

 Cumbra Wales 7 Dec 2015

Storm Desmond dumped more than 10 inches of rain on some areas in England, including the northwestern county of Cumbria, while other rain-battered regions such as North Wales got more than seven inches, according to the Met Office, the U.K. weather forecaster.  Nearly 50 severe flood warnings (which indicate danger to life) remain in effect in England and Wales, while 32 flood warnings are in place in Scotland.

 

UK Extreme floods

An Environment Agency spokesman warned "significant flooding" was expected in the area, adding: "The situation is serious and there is a significant risk to life.”  Homes around the 18th century stone bridge, over the River Wharfe, were evacuated by soldiers.
An Environment Agency spokesman warned "significant flooding" was expected in the area, adding: "The situation is serious and there is a significant risk to life."

The strongest El Nino on record is likely to increase the threat of hunger and disease for tens of millions of people in 2016 aid agencies say.

 

December 30, 2015 CNN:
More than 18 million Americans live in areas under flood warnings, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday.Thirteen states are affected, NOAA said.
One of the states most affected is Missouri, which is grappling with deadly flooding that will threaten cities and towns along rivers for days even through the most of the rain has stopped.
Levees have been overtopped in West Alton, just north of St. Louis. And late Tuesday, St. Charles County emergency officials ordered all people to evacuate the mostly rural area, which lies on the Mississippi River.
Record flooding on Mississippi There have been an estimated 49 weather-related deaths in the past week across the country, with the current severe storm system blamed for 35 deaths: 13 in Missouri, 11 in the Dallas area, five in southern Illinois, five in Oklahoma and at least one in Georgia. Many died after their cars were swept away by floodwater.
Record Flooding in Mississippi River
225 roads closed across Missouri I44 closed in 2 places

US Streamflow Map 30 DEC 2016

 

US Streamflow 30 DEC 2016  NOAA

Major historic flooding: NOAA Flood Forecast Map

 

Flood Hydrograph showing historic flood at Cape Girardeau Mississippi: 27 DEC 2015 to 6 Jan 2016

 

Cape Girardeau Mississippi Hydrograph

GLOBE

GLOBE - Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment GLOBE presents an opportunity for students, teachers, and scientists to learn and develop scientific thought processes and to understand our environment.  In the early 1990’s Vice President Al Gore had an idea to help children around the world use the internet to communicate and learn about each other and their environment.  His goal was to have at least one computer in every school around the world.  He wanted students to improve their understanding of science and math thru making observations that they could share.  I had an opportunity to meet Dr. Sandy McDonald, Director, Forecast Systems Laboratory, NOAA when he was helping Al Gore develop the early stages of GLOBE in 1993.  At the time I worked with the US Bureau of Reclamation and was a visiting scientist at NCAR in Boulder, Colorado.  NCAR and UCAR hosted many meetings on GLOBE and UCAR now hosts the GLOBE Implementation Office (GIO).  One of my interests has been to promote GLOBE in various regions.  After returning from Morocco in 1988, I maintained interests with the Direction de la Meteorologie National and with friends at the Casablanca American School.  Morocco joined GLOBE after helping make the connections there. 

Today, I am interested in helping Slovenia join GLOBE.  This effort dovetails with US Ambassador, Brent Hartley’s interest in developing a partnership between the Slovenian Triglav National Park and Crater Lake National Park in Oregon.  Environmental science and biodiversity are common interests of Triglav and Crater Lake park rangers and environmental scientists.

Lyn Wigbels, International Coordinator, GLOBE Implementation Office relayed this information about recent GLOBE Student Research Experience: "I was pleased to hear about the Ambassador’s project which sounds like a great venue for involving students in the GLOBE Program.  Over the years, GLOBE activities have been organized in national parks.  Most recently, during our 20th GLOBE Annual Meeting in Estes Park, Colorado, in July, GLOBE students visited Rocky Mountain National Park to take part in a Student Research Experience:
 
http://www.globe.gov/news-events/globe-news/newsdetail/globe/video-captures-the-essence-of-the-2016-globe-student-research-experience? 

This video truly captures the essance of the GLOBE scientific discovery process and clearly demonstrates how it works to engage students from around the world in learning about nature and their environment.  It shows how students apply the scientific procss and communicate their discoveries to others working with their mentors.

Joining GLOBE can be a life changing process that enables teachers, scientists, GLOBE partners, and alumni to improve their understanding of earth.

You are here: Home News and Events