Global Extreme Weather Log
- Details
- Category: News and Events
- Created on 11 August 2020
- Published on 11 August 2020
WEEKLY GLOBAL EXTREMES
(Article Mnager-news and events)
This page provides a weekly log of unique weather events and information that summarizes some key events of note. Most of the extreme notes are from Electroverse Extreme Weather daily updates.
For clips of these events see my Global Weather Album: Global Weather 2020-2021.
Global Weather Album 2020-2021: https://photos.app.goo.gl/bLyGGEv6oK6f7q9N8
Global Weather Album Spring 2021: https://photos.app.goo.gl/AXJDAGeKLrkcvLvM8
Global Weather Album Fall-Winter 2021-22: https://photos.app.goo.gl/7Vha3C3tKzmdDNyp7
Global Weather Album Winter 2022-23: https://photos.app.goo.gl/yMZB2gDoTbqLZzdQA
Global Weather Album Summer 2023: https://photos.app.goo.gl/rBprNqGzNmHBodKy8
Global Weather Album Fall - Winter 2023: https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6
Global Weather Album Winter 2024: https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7
The purpose of these Global Extreme Weather Logs is to educate and inform you about Mother Nature’s way of keeping a balance in our planet’s weather. I provide examples of events that may not be reported elsewhere and physical explanations of the causes of these extremes. Note: I do not focus on heat as the MSM covers that aspect of our climate variability..
13 MAY 2024
EXTREME weather continued this week as millions of Americans were under severe thunderstorm and flood warnings. Over 315 tornadoes were reported during the past 2 weeks. It has been another horrific spring week. From Texas to Georgia and SC heavy 3-7 inch rains are predicted again this week. Mountains of the West had more snow, even Argentina’s Patagonia had heavy snow - looks like an early ski season there. This next week the West Coast finally dries out.
Europe was cold from Spain to Russia with new records set in Spain and Russia. Eastern and southern Siberia warmed to the 10s and 20sºC. European Russia in the major grain producing regions had its second hard freeze with temperatures to -5ºC. This is creating a “major grain growing emergency”. The sunny side of the Alps in Slovenia warmed as Kredarica’s snow depth dropped to 270 cm.
C5 CME hits earth with wide spread power grid impacts and auroras to lower latitudes. Our neighbor’s daughter took some beautiful aurora photos from Loveland Pass. See the Album. The Aurora was seen in all 50 states ! Auroras illuminated cacti, palm trees, pyramids, and Caribbean beaches.
All 50 U.S. states were privy to the display, even Hawaii.
“I couldn’t believe it,” said Nā‘ālehu resident Brenda Trowbridge, who captured the below images with a 3-second exposure on her iPhone. “It was a beautiful purple and greenish tinge visible to the naked eye for about 5 minutes,” she wrote on social media.
AFGHANISTAN suffered extreme flash floods with >300 dead. Brazil’s Porto Alegro and Rio Grande de sol continued flooding with over 150 dead. Columbia and Brazil’s Porto Alegro region will have more heavy rain this week.
The Southern Hemisphere continued to cool with Argentina much below normal and heavy Patagonian Snows. Rare snow covered Santiago, Chile. Over 3 m of snow are predicted just east of Santiago in the Andes this week. Australia continued to have Antarctic fronts and a 1030 mb High in the Bight. Deep 929-970 mb storms circled the Antarctic, where Concordia hit a new record of 10 days below -70ºC (-94ºF). Thwaites Glacier continued to get 1-1.5 m snows.
THE FOLLOWING TABLES show the observed temperatures at key points from Greenland to Vostok and the ECMWF 10-day snowfall forecasts at key points around the world where glaciers may be receding or growing.
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES and ECMWF 10-DAY SNOWFALL FORECASTS:
See: https://photos.app.goo.gl/D4FSQPjmzrAwbS2q9.
You can see the magnitude of the storms on windy.com and in NOAA’s GOES satellite imagery: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G18&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12
Temperature anomalies are tucked on:
tropicaltidbits.com
see: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024021212&fh=6
See details below in CURRENT EXTREMES: 11 March 2024
The windy.com wave map shows the deep storms:
see: https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,67.842,-1.230,3,i:pressure
Check out the albums below for detailed charts, satellite images, and observations:
Fall - Winter 2023:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6
Winter 2024: https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7
Review of past logs:
Atmospheric Rivers dominate precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere from Alaska to Greenland and Europe. These ARs are associated with intense cyclonic storms on the jet stream that dominate the weather. Recall tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones (Lows) and anticyclones (Highs) control our weather. Atmospheric River forecasts quantify the model computations of moisture flux from surface to 700 mb. This flux controls the duration and intensity of precipitation. Remember last winter when California had a record number of intense ARs that filled the “1000 yr“ drought’s reservoirs and extended Mammoth Mountain’s ski season into August 2023. Mammoth mountain is again accumulating heavy snows with a foot a day for 7 days in the last storm. California is drought free today as new ARs are pounding the coast again this winter triggering flash floods and debris flows in this saturated ground. The Colorado River Basin continues to benefit from these snowstorms from Colorado to Wyoming and Utah. Early season NRCS snow water equivalent SWE is running from 100 to 120% of normal.
NRCS Basin Data: https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#version=169&elements=&networks=!&states=!&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=any&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=true&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=2&basinOpacity=75&basinNoDataOpacity=25&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&popupBasin=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8¶meter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&monthPart=E&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&useMixedPast=true&seqColor=1&divColor=7&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2020&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&relativeDate=-1&lat=43.728&lon=-104.797&zoom=5.0
Atmospheric River forecast by Marty Ralph’s team:
https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/
An important component of the Grand Solar Minimum is an increase in clouds due to its impact on our solar system’s magnetosphere and increased numbers of deep space cosmic rays penetrating our upper atmosphere and generating cloud condensation nuclei. Clouds produce many complex phenomena ranging from cooling as solar radiation is reflected back to space, to surface warming as heat is retained at night and radiational cooling is reduced under stratus and in fog. On a large scale temperature gradients control the winds and jet stream dynamics. Clouds also impact the sea surface temperature SST which can have profound impacts on the Earth’s energy budget from the El Niño to Jet stream intensity and location. NASA is now predicting a solar maximum of cycle 25 by January 2024 with some CMEs. Note: current climate models fail to adequately simulate clouds; hence, a serious limit to their long term predictions. The primary critical impact of the GSM is late spring frosts and early fall frosts that limit the growing season. it is difficult for long term models to predict these critical events accurately.
Volcanic activity has increased dramatically in November 2023 with two stratovolcanoes pumping huge amounts of volcanic ash into the stratosphere in the northern Hemisphere from Kamchatka, and the tropics from New Guinea. Iceland’s seismic activity also increased significantly and resulted in a small volcanic eruption. Stratospheric volcanic dust from volcanoes cause significant atmospheric cooling. During the Little Ice Age there were many volcanoes associated with the Milankovitch Cycle that also contributed to the cooling. Japan had a devastating earthquake in the last weeks.
During the winter, low clouds can keep the polar regions warmer, thus reducing the N-S temperature gradient that may lead to a weaker jet stream and a meridional flow. This wavy N-S flow enhances the warm and cold sectors of storms and hence, extreme temperature swings. Thus far this winter we have a very wavy jet steam. Have a look at my album’s examples.
The El Niño continues to weaken yet it covers a large area; however, so far California is following the intense winter weather associated with an El Niño. The latest SST observations show cold water below the thin warm El Niño water, thus indicating the likelihood of a la Niña forming soon. NCAR scientists called for a severe winter. Thus far, the Ontario-Hudson Bay 700 mb low has been pulling cold air south into the East much like last winter. Note: the eastern N American low gyrates in the Jet, hence its impact varies. The West and High Plains are on the western edge of the deep cold air, hence, they have brief cold blasts and may benefit from the Pacific ARs heavy snow; however, they will enjoy somewhat warmer winter temperatures than the NE. The Sudden Stratospheric Warming - SSW was predicted to pull extremely cold air into the entire US by mid-January and again in February and March. This verified quite nicely in January - burr ! We’ll see how March goes. It would appear that CHINA and Asia have been hit the hardest with severe cold weather this season and are now warming.
Dr. Valentina Zharkova, a solar expert from the Ukraine, talks about the sun’s impact on the el Niño in her interview below. She reviews the Grand Solar Minimum and solar system impacts on climate variability.
Valentina Zharkova’s interview at the end of this link provides a comprehensive review of the GSM physics from an expert in this field. Dr. Zharkova reviews the physics, mathematics, and relationships of solar cycles, orbital mechanics, magnetosphere impacts, volcano cycles, and el Nino cycles related to the earth’s inclination…
https://electroverse.info/coldest-may-80n-greenland-gains-warmer-in-the-past-zharkova-interview/
Her primary web site: https://solargsm.com/
September recorded increases in SMB occurred +6 GT and +10 GT on 1 and 2 Sept respectively setting new records and again this week with 8-10 GT. The accumulated SMB curve dropped to normal in December-February and is now at or above normal. see:
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
and
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next3d,69.945,22.148,4,i:pressure,m:fDTafyg
The jet stream continues strong with a sharp meridional - wavy N-S flow from N America to Europe. Short waves trigger storms as they become more frequent and more powerful. Their wind shear can still spin up tornadoes in convective storms normally seen in spring and fall. Omega blocking ridges control the speed of system movement.
See:
https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?awp_0_40,34.089,20.303,4,i:pressure,m:ff3agyK
see: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
Snow:
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,74.902,-40.649,4,i:pressure,m:fOdadW1
Rain:
https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,next10d,51.944,-74.399,4,i:pressure
Japan and N Korea warmed a bit with 2-38 cm of snow on the mountains of N Korea and Japan respectively with record cold and snow.
TropicalTidbits.com (forecast models) also gives you a look at the temperature departures from normal associated with these storms. You can see the warm and cold sectors - the normal variations of global temperature.
The Himalayas had heavy snow on the peaks with most areas receiving 1-3 m. The Tibetan Plateau is high ~3-5 km msl with new snow from the Himalaya to Shan ranges. Total snow on the ground on 9/3/23 still ranged from 0.5 to 5 m. This high elevation massif is a major factor controlling global weather patterns. Its unusual snowfall this summer may have a significant impact. The Hindukusch have had significant snows of 0.5-2.0 m again this week. Delhi set cold records, northern India and Pakistan had record snows last week.
Southern hemisphere jet is intensifying as the sun marched north cooling the Antarctic. It is now driving several large deep storms (976 to 936 mb) circling the Antarctic. Antarctic still has large areas in the interior below -40 to -65º C as measured in Windy’s satellite surface temperatures - even this January was reporting below -40ºC - a year without summer. On 3 Sept the South Pole reported -74.9ºC (-102ºF) and -80ºC at Vostok… Last week as the Antarctic begins cooling into Fall. Vostok broke -50ºC in December and -60 in March. This week the temperature again fell below -100ºF. Howling blizzards are still circling the Antarctic coast with 30 to 50 kt winds near these storms. The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea are 95% and 100% sea Ice covered respectively. SEA ICE is now increasing rapidly. McMurdo Base has been quite cold at -19 to -25ºC setting records and grounding aircraft in September. Temperatures in the Antarctic are cooling, and remaining significantly below normal. This week McMurdo rose to -19º C. The Antarctic set a November record cold of -60ºC. December and now January are setting new cold summer records: On Jan 4, 2024, the minimums at Concordia, JASE2007 AWS and Vostok were all, once again, below -40C, coming in at -40.8C, -40.2C and -40.1C, respectively. The South Pole set its 3rd coldest March record at -60ºC this week.The sun is moving N, so the cold is settling in down under. South Georgia Island had snows reaching 53-76 cm this week.
Southern Africa set cold records and snow as deep cyclonic storms march across the South Atlantic pumping Antarctic Air northward. Even Madagascar and Reunion Island set new cold records and had some snow in October 2023. Record snow fell in late October 2023.
AUSTRALIA has had a variety of summer weather. Antarctic highs set new cold records in June and July and are continuing to set cold records. Sydney set a new cold summer record when it failed to reach 32ºC (89.6ºF) in December 2022. Australia’s Victoria and South Australia had some much below normal temperatures and cold records to -2.7ºC. Western Australia cooled as the Antarctic waves moved north. Frosts developed in Queensland and the NW Territories - in subtropical Australia! This week large areas of Australia continued to have heavy rain : Darwin 150-500 mm, N Queensland had 95-162 mm as tropical cyclones hit. However, much of Australia had significant rains: Canberra 50 mm. Alice Springs remained cool at 20-25 ºC. Normally we see 30 to 45ºC in the satellite surface temperatures on windy.com but Alice Springs remained in the 20s with a couple 40ºC days. The cloud top temperatures near Darwin were -80ºC in deep thunderstorms. Last week a major Antarctic cold front moved northward over Australia triggering heavy rains up to Alice Springs. Monthly cold records were set in March. Note: Jennifer Marohasy discusses Australian forecasts and observations every week.
JENNIFER MAROHASY’s latest: https://jennifermarohasy.com/2024/01/cyclone-jasper-bom-forecasting-getting-to-the-truth/
Note: 2023 was the first time since 1987 when Australia’s mountains had snow on the ground all year. The mean February temperature was 0.2ºC below normal making the summer mean temp 0.5ºC below normal. New Zealand continues to increase snows over the South Island with 20-70 cm and heavy rain at low elevations on the West coast 100-300 mm. Note: October 25-30, 2023 the interior of Australia had satellite surface temperatures from 10 to 31ºC - spring was here with a few cool highs. During the past weeks, February 1-26, it was much cooler followed by a few 30-40ºC days. Last week the deserts were 10-15ºC behind an Antarctic front. Last week the Snowy range had 11 cm - an early start to winter.
South America was cooling, but cold fronts are predicted to take temperatures 5-10ºC below normal next week. The Andes continued to build their glaciers (1-2 m). South American snow was at record levels. Patagonia had significant snows and skiing in the Andes continued in November 2023. Argentina and Brazil continue to be warm, yet, some Antarctic cold fronts have triggered thunderstorms and locally heavy rains (100-300 mm) in the South of Brazil by Iguazu Falls. The Iguazu region had heavy rains and floods in contrast to a record drought in the Amazon Basin. However, the past month had heavy rain in the upper headwaters of the Rio Negro and Amazon Rivers. Deep thunderstorms with top temperatures of -70 to -80ºC are helping mitigate the drought. These mesoscale convective complexes can dump 100-200+ mm. Rio and Sao Paulo had flash floods and have remained wet.
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,-66.653,-60.776,4,i:pressure,m:NPaelA
For those interested in understanding the current weather, I have documented events in the Albums showing model, satellite, radar, images.
New 2/26/24
Winter 2024: https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7
EPOCH TIMES 5/1/24:
JOURNALIST REPORTS WITH REFEREED PROFESSIONAL JOURNALS:
Link: Climate change article:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/ominous-rumblings-from-the-climate-change-cult-5553549
Earth’s Future -mass extinction history
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022EF003336
UK energy policy:
Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00367-6
Anthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect. Here we used the abrupt reduction in anthropogenic emissions observed during the COVID-19 societal slow-down to characterize the aerosol masking effect over South Asia. During this period, the aerosol loading decreased substantially and our observations reveal that the magnitude of this aerosol demasking corresponds to nearly three-fourths of the CO2-induced radiative forcing over South Asia. Concurrent measurements over the northern Indian Ocean unveiled a ~7% increase in the earth’s surface-reaching solar radiation (surface brightening). Aerosol-induced atmospheric solar heating decreased by ~0.4 K d−1. Our results reveal that under clear sky conditions, anthropogenic emissions over South Asia lead to nearly 1.4 W m−2 heating at the top of the atmosphere during the period March–May. A complete phase-out of today’s fossil fuel combustion to zero-emission renewables would result in rapid aerosol demasking, while the GHGs linger on.
Global temperatures, CO2 concentrations and oceans
Allan T. Emrén
Published Online:June 30, 2023pp 401-412https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276
Abstract
During the past 170 years, temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased. Published data on global temperature, CO2 data, and data on sea ice in the Arctic have been investigated. It is seen that support for human activities causing the observed increases is weak. It is found that the rate of change in CO2 concentration is controlled by global temperature rather than vice versa. To stop the growing concentration, the temperature has first to be decreased by about 1.4 K. This makes it questionable if attempts by humans to modify the global temperature, or the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will give any noticeable result. A correlation is found between seasonal variations in CO2 concentrations and Arctic sea ice quantities. The present increase in CO2 concentration and temperature is similar to one 55 million years ago, indicating that the Earth passed a 'tipping point' around 1750.
https://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276
…….
WSJ: How Climate Policy Went Wrong:
A new documentary on climate: Well worth viewing —
Electroverse provides an excellent source of extremes not reported in the MSM:
Latest Extremes: 13 MAY 2024
Heavy May Snow Hits the Sierra Nevada; Concordia Below -70C (-94F) for 10-Days; + Cooling In The Tropical Pacific, La Niña Looms
May 6, 2024 Cap Allon
Heavy May Snow Hits the Sierra Nevada
The Sierra Nevada’s highest single-day snowfall total for the season came on Sunday, May 5.
‘Who had that on their winter bingo card?’ asked the University of California, Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab on X:
A historic Winter Storm Warning was issued for Lake Tahoe and Mammoth Lakes, the first-ever issuance in May, and Mother Nature duly delivered, dropping 26.4 inches on Sunday, beating the season’s previous snowiest day, the 23.8 inches from March 1.
Rare flakes hit the lower elevations too, with inches accumulating on the Eastern Slope down from Mount Rose (<6,000 ft).
https://electroverse.info/may-snow-sierra-nevada-concordia-cold-la-nina-looms/
Temperatures also fell, into the low 40s (F) for many which some 20F below the seasonal norm. Locations along the Sierra Crest dropped to near 0F (-17.8C).
“One of the coldest May storms in recent history is moving through NorCal,” posted Colin McCarthy to X on May 4, an Atmospheric Scientist at The University of California, Davis. Looking ahead, the first half of the new week offers little respite:
Concordia Below -70C (-94F) for 10-Days
Antarctica’s anomalous cold is persisting for its eighth month on the trot.
A low of -77C (-106.6F) was registered at Concordia on Saturday, May 4 — a reading well below the average.
A comparatively balmy -72.3C (-98.1F) followed on Sunday, but it still made for Concordia’s tenth day in a row with minimums below -70C (-94F) — a very rare feat.
Antarctica is cooling, the data are clear:
Cooling In The Tropical Pacific, La Niña Looms
Cooling in the Pacific Ocean is intensifying, a new La Niña is rising, and a watch has been issued. Atmospheric impacts are due July-onward, through the winter of 2024-25, which would make for the fourth La Niña winter of the past five years.
From early-Jan to early-May, the entire ENSO region has cooled quite significantly, with the strongest cooling (4-6C below the norm) noted in the eastern ENSO regions.
Much Of Russia Returned To Winter; Heavy Snow Hits Argentina A Month Early; Spain Chills; “Best May Powder Days In Memory” At Palisades; Cold Antarctic Coast; + X4.5-Flare
May 7, 2024 Cap Allon
Much Of Russia Returned To Winter
This isn’t exaggeration, winter has returned to Russia, in May.
Freezes have struck Kaliningrad to Krasnoyarsk, and Murmansk to Krasnodar, while heavy snows have been observed from the northwest, through central regions, to the Volga, over the Urals, to Western and Central Siberia, and into the North Caucasus.
“Blizzards are raging in the Russian North, the Polar Urals, and northern Siberia,” reports gismeteo.ru. “While in the middle latitudes, snow cover, rare for this time, has been restored.”
The snow has been fiercest in and around the Urals where tens of thousands of people have lost power, in the Sverdlovsk region for one.
The water supply here has also been disrupted, according to local authorities.
Speaking to the cold, the soil temperature in the Kushchevsky district of the Krasnodar Territory –for example– dropped to -2.4C (27.7F) on May 5. This is classified as ‘dangerous’ in May due to risk of frost damage to tender crops and budding fruits.
A frost warning was issued for May 5 and 6, recently extended to May 7.
Freezes have also swept the Republic of Adygea, in the Stavropol Territory.
Headed west, Moscow has also been enduring freezing lows. Muscovites could also see a few settling flakes in the coming days. The cold is set to persist and all, with -3C (26.6F) forecast later in the week and wet snow. “Almost the entire week the temperature will be 10 degrees [C] below normal, [akin] to early April,” reports hmn.ru.
Likewise in St. Petersburg, lows of -5C (23F) have been registered after Arctic air crashed south through the Kara and Barents seas and down through Scandinavia. Settling snow is also expected here by Wednesday.
Note: Scandinavia has endured brutal chills this winter and spring. Savukoski Tulppio has posted a -30C (-22F) reading every month from November to April. The last time -30C was measured for six consecutive months in Finland was 45 years ago, in Kittilä Pokka, in 1979.
Longer-range models see Russia’s ‘return to winter’ persisting until at least May 20.
Spain Chills
Arctic air still isn’t done with Europe, either.
The Jerez de la Frontera, in Spain has broken its minimum temperature record for the month of May.
With a low of 4.5C (40.1F) the previous record of 4.7C (40.5F) –registered just three years ago– has been bested, with station data extending back to 1952.
“Best May Powder Days In Memory” At Palisades
The spring snowpack continues to build over California’s higher reaches.
Recently, Palisades Tahoe received 26 inches in just 24 hours, prompting officials to ready the slopes “for one of the best May powder days in recent memory”:
Heavy Snow Hits Northern Argentina A Month Early
An early-season freeze has engulfed much of Argentina this week, as Antarctic air ascends unusually far north.
Wintry conditions have arrived in Patagonia, for one, where a biting -11.8C (10.8F) was registered in El Calafete, Santa Cruz on May 6 — a reading just 0.6C from the city’s monthly record.
Biting lows and heavy snows are expected to persist in the coming days, across the majority of Argentina.
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) has extended an orange snow alert for Tuesday in the Río Negro and Neuquén mountain ranges where an additional 70 cm (28 inches) is on the cards.
Looking further ahead, the mass of ‘blues’ and ‘purples’ is forecast to advance northward and intensify as the month of May progresses, pushing beyond Argentina and into the likes of Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia and even southern Brazil:
Cold Antarctic Coast
Antarctica’s anomalous cold isn’t just confined to the heart of the Plateau, the coast is also shivering.
Remarkable readings struck the coastal Adélie Land on the morning of May 6
The D-47 Automatic Weather Station (pictured below) posted a low of -41C (-41.8F) which is far-below the average, one of the locale’s earliest sub -40Cs on record, in fact, and a reading just 3.6C shy of the monthly record reached on May 15, 1993.
“Patagonia Is Absolutely Buried”; Rare Snow Blankets Chile’s Capital; Snowbird, Utah Surpasses 600 Inches; + Alaska’s Near-Record Snow Season Also Means “Big Fire Danger”
May 9, 2024 Cap Allon
“Patagonia Is Absolutely Buried”
The early-May snow in South America has been truly jaw-dropping.
Beginning in Bariloche, Argentina –and adding to Tuesday’s report— autumn appears to have been skipped entirely here, with the Río Negro region jumping straight into winter after receiving as much as 8 feet of snow.
https://electroverse.info/rare-snow-chiles-snowbird-utah-600-inches-alaskas-fire-danger/
“This is not normal,” said David Owen, of Andes backcountry guiding service PowderQuest in a recent interview for powder.com.
“Everyone has been blown away. The locals are claiming this is an historical event. It has been snowing for nearly a week now. While May always sees snow in Patagonia, the intensity of these back to back storms has never been seen at this time of year.
“Patagonia is absolutely buried.
Rare Snow Blankets Chile’s Capital
Rare early-season snow is even clipping the Chilean capital of Santiago, with substantial accumulations noted in communes such as Lo Barnechea, Las Condes, Vitacura, Puente Alto, La Reina and Pirque.
Authorities have advised locals in the Santiago Metropolitan Region to “dress accordingly and drive carefully”. Data from the Office of the Superintendent of Electricity and Fuels reveals that some 225,000 people are currently without power.
Snow in Chile’s capital is rare.
Flakes settled back in July 2020, and before that in July 2017–when Santiago residents woke to a blanketing that again resulted in widespread power outages. But these recent early-May dumpings are considered extremely rare.
Santiago has a temperate semi-arid climate, it doesn’t often see temperatures near or below the freezing mark, let alone snow.
Snowbird, Utah Surpasses 600 Inches
Snowbird has surpassed 600 inches of seasonal snowfall and plans to remain open through at least Memorial Day.
Late-season snowstorm cycles have pounded the west in recent weeks, driving snowpack well-above the norm.
They average around 500 inches a season at Snowbird.
Brighton Resort also recently surpassed 600 inches of seasonal snowfall amidst the most-recent storm cycle.
The entire Jordan basin, in fact –which encompasses Brighton, Snowbird, and also Solitude– is well above the median SWE.
Alaska’s Near-Record Snow Season Also Means “Big Fire Danger”
Anchorage is witnessing its second-snowiest season, after notching its snowiest-ever calendar year in 2023 (in books back to 1958). Good news, right climate crusaders? Nope. The city’s Fire Department says this season’s remarkable snow could mean a more dangerous fire season. The AGW Party is having it both ways, as always.
“Climate change is making wildfires last longer and be more intense,” is the official claim. And agenda-driving television news would have us all believing these natural disasters are getting worse. But they’re not. The data are very clear on that.
In 1900, around 4.5% of the land area of the world would burn every year. Over the last century, this declined to about 3.2%. And in the last two decades, satellites show an even further decline. In 2021 just 2.5% burned. All according to NASA, no less:
Record May Cold In Japan; IPCC Arctic Sea Ice ‘Adjustments’; Canada Is Building Six New Polar Icebreakers; + Five CMEs Headed For Earth, ‘Severe’ Geomagnetic Storms Forecast
May 10, 2024 Cap Allon
Record May Cold In Japan
This week, Japan has been engulfed by a mass of descending Arctic air.
March-like cold has gripped the entire country:
The northern prefecture of Hokkaido has posted some of the coldest temperatures.
Asahikawa’s low of -1.2C (29.8F) on Thursday –for example– has been confirmed as the city’s coldest May temperature since 2005. Teshio dipped lower still, the -4.9C (23.7F) registered there is the town’s second-lowest temperature ever recorded (in books dating back to 1978), bested only by the -5.7C (21.7F) set during the May of 2009 (the deep solar minimum of weak cycle 23).
May snow has even been falling in these parts, even after Golden Week — a big national holiday running from 29 April to 5 May.
More than 10 cm (4 inches) has hit the higher elevations, while even lower down, on the Sea of Okhotsk, substantial flurries have been noted for the time of year, as revealed by the below webcam shot of the Ukishima Tunnel on National Route 273:
Japan has seen wild swings between extremes in recent weeks, from record lows to record highs, back and forth, constantly flip-flopping.
In March, the country’s famed cherry blossom bloom came 5-days late due to persistent cold, the latest “front” in 12-years; April was then an anomalously-warm month; but now May is delivering record low temperatures and mountain snowfall.
These swings are highly unusual, far more than your standard spring fluctuations. They are evidence of an increasingly-wavy jet stream, the cause of which is thought to be the cumulative effects of years –decades, in fact– of decreasing solar activity.
IPCC Arctic Sea Ice ‘Adjustments’
It’s not just temperature datasets that government agencies tamper with to get their desired results, they’ve been caught tweaking sea ice data and all.
As revealed by Tony Heller, between 1990 and 2001 the IPCC rewrote the history of Arctic sea ice, magically turning an increase in ice from 1972-1990 into a decline.
The IPCC feels protected committing scientific fraud because the establishment —from its legacy media to its unquestioning pop-scientists— supports them in their endeavor. Having incompetent, weak-willed bureaucrats at the helm also doesn’t help.
Tellingly, you will not hear mainstream reportings re. Arctic sea ice in 2024.
This is because extent currently stands, as of May 8, at an 11-year high — above the year 2004, matching 1989, and not too far off the 1981-2010 average:
Honest scientific debate is being hampered by a set of dogmatic beliefs laid down from on high.
Canada Is Building Six New Polar Icebreakers
The projections of an ice-free Arctic haven’t panned out, as evidence by Canada requiring six new polar icebreaker.
Canada’s Minister of Public Services and Procurement Jean-Yves Duclos said the six new icebreakers will replace the vessels currently used by the Canadian Coast Guard (CCG), and will see the country with a feet of next generation Arctic ships.
“They will be among the most advanced, sustainable and durable vessels tailored to the world’s harshest environments. The new fleet will be symbolic of Canada’s Arctic presence and crucial to keeping our country open for business year-round,” said Duclos.
Five CMEs Headed For Earth, ‘Severe’ Geomagnetic Storms Forecast
Huge sunspot AR3664 has hurled five coronal mass ejections (CMEs) toward Earth.
All five are visible in this frenetic two-day coronagraph movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):
Record May Cold Sweeps European-Russia, Prompting Major Russian Grain Growing Regions To Declare An Emergency; + “Historic” Solar Storm Delivers Auroras To All 50 U.S. States…
May 13, 2024 Cap Allon
Record May Cold Sweeps European-Russia, Prompting Major Russian Grain Growing Regions To Declare An Emergency
Fierce Arctic air has gripped Eastern Europe and much of Russia of late, tanking temperatures down to as low as -6C (21.2F), to record-low levels for the time of year.
The below data comes courtesy of Russia’s national meteorological service (Гидрометцентр России, Gidrometcentr Rossii), and via hmn.ru.
Famed for its rich, deep, black soil, Chernozem (the “Black Earth Belt”) has been hit by hard frosts.
In Valuyki, thermometers dipped to -3.4C (25.9F) on May 10, smashing the previous record-low for the month of May of 0.8C set back in 1952.
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Records also fell in In Yelets (-1.2C/29.8F), in Voronezh (-1.8C/28.8F), and in Tambov (-2.3C/27.9F) — to name just three others.
Frosts have ravaged the Volga region and all this month, on three separate occasions (to May 12).
In Balashov, a low of -4.4C (24.1F) was recently observed, a reading 2.2C below the old record which had stood since 1950. While in Alexandrov Gai, a rare -3.4C (25.9F) was noted.
In Sorochinsk, located in the Orenburg region, a low of -2.3C (27.9F) was posted, breaking the previous May record of -1.7C (28.9F) set in 1971. The average daily temperature here throughout May has held some 10-11 degrees C below the historical average.
Record lows were also posted on the night of May 10 across the Rostov region, in Chertkovo and Gigant — to name two.
Frosts of -3.3 (26.1F) and -3.8 (25.2F) were suffered in Uryupinsk and Frolovo, respectively. They also reached Lugansk which shivered through -3.1 (26.4F), a mark that busted the locale’s previous May extreme of -1.1C (30F) from 1950.
Extremes May chills also swept the likes of the Yaroslavl region on May 11, as they did both the Kostroma and Orenburg regions.
While in the city of Vladimir, thermometers dipped to -1.8C (28.8F) and so set a new record-low for the month of May, besting the previous record by 0.6C, from 2017.
Even before this latest round of descending polar air, three of Russia’s key grain-growing areas had already declared a state of emergency, citing severe frost damage to crops that is expected to drastically reduce this year’s harvest.
Last week, the central regions of Lipetsk, Voronezh and Tambov, located in Russia’s fertile ‘Black Earth Belt’, all imposed emergency measures.
“The frosts that hit in early May led to catastrophic consequences,” said Igor Artamonov, the governor of the Lipetsk region. “We must understand that this year’s harvest will be much smaller than the previous one.”
In neighboring Voronezh, the regional agriculture ministry wrote on Telegram: “According to preliminary data, the area of dead or severely damaged crops has exceeded 265,000 hectares.”
While in Tambov, further east, Governor Maksim Yegorov signed a similar order, with his administration citing “early May frosts that have killed crops and damaged perennial plantings”.
Lows of -4.6C (23.7F) in have prompted the Voronezh ministry to fear the worst. The declaring of a state of emergency here has enabled farmers to “document the objective impossibility of achieving target indicators”, which they are obliged to hit in order to receive subsidies, and also to apply for insurance payments.
Authorities in Tambov said temperatures crashed to -5C (26F) on four separate nights, ravaging the fields.
Russia is one of the world’s top grain producers and exporters.
“Historic” Solar Storm Delivers Auroras To All 50 U.S. States
NOAA forecast a ‘severe’ G4 geomagnetic storm, we ended up witnessing an ‘extreme’ G5 event with auroras lighting up the skies of Europe, Asia, North America, Mexico, South America, and Australia and New Zealand.
The historic geomagnetic storm of May 10-11, 2024 was witnessed by hundreds of millions of people, with many seeing the dancing colors in the skies for the first time in their lives.
Despite the major activity, Bettwy said scientists haven’t seen any major impacts as a result of the solar flares — no reports of downed satellites or perturbations to power grids, and now the storms are over.
NOAA forecasters say there’s no chance of additional G5 activity this week because all the big CMEs have come and gone. Relatively minor G1 or G2-class storms are possible May 13 from a glancing blow from this off-target CME, but that’s it:
6 MAY 2024
FLOODS on every continent except Antarctica dominated the weather this week. You can watch them on windy.com global satellite imagery, and model forecasts. The satellite images have real-time lightning strikes that give you an idea of the relative storm intensity. Texas and Louisiana were hit hard by severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and floods as the ground became saturated. Deep Spring storms moved across America from California to Ontario bringing cold fronts and warm sectors with extreme weather. The latest model and NWS forecasts have winter storms in the West from the Cascades and Sierra to the Rockies. The heavy precipitation on the West Coast in May is quite unusual. My Winter 2024 album documents these conditions and the Storm Prediction Center’s forecasts. A job well done. Northern areas had frost and hard freezes in the East, while the West was warm LAST WEEK.
Europe was also wet as a deep trough/closed low from Iceland to Algeria stalled and spun-up short waves that moved from the UK to France and across central Europe. This added high alpine snows to the Alps and saturated low land soils. May’s forecast threatens another cold surge and late season frosts and snows. Remember every extratropical storm has a warm and cold sector, thus we may have warm dry air and cold wet regions...Siberia is warming from the -30s to 20s ºC in May.
Kenya and Tanzania suffered extreme flooding as the InterTropical Convergence Zone ITCZ moved north and Tropical Cyclone Hidaya triggered severe thunderstorms and heavy rains for many days. Over 180 people have died. Southern China’s Pearl River Delta also had floods triggered by intense thunderstorms. This region’s annual flooding was more intense than normal. Northern India in contrast had heavy snows that stranded over 1000 people, while in the south temperatures exceeded 40ºC.
Australia’s NSW may have more flooding like in April. ECMWF forecasts have predicted 100-300 mm near Sydney. In South America, Brazil is having extreme floods killing over 39 people and destroying large areas with debris flows and floods. Water levels in Porto Alegre rose to 4.88 m the highest since 1941. This after the Amazon’s drought stopped shipping in January. It has since recovered. Columbia’s drought is over with very heavy rains (200-700 mm) over the past 3 weeks. Nature has a way of seeking balance. The ENSO is trending to a La Niña as the El Niño ends.
The Antarctic continued to set cold records at the South Pole and Vostok station reaching -80ºC (-112ºF). Deep snows continued on Thwaites Glacier as a 948 mb storm pumped 1-2 m of new snow into the mountains. The Andes continued to get 1-2 m also.
THE FOLLOWING TABLES show the observed temperatures at key points from Greenland to Vostok and the ECMWF 10-day snowfall forecasts at key points around the world where glaciers may be receding or growing.
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES and ECMWF 10-DAY SNOWFALL FORECASTS:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/D4FSQPjmzrAwbS2q9
You can see the magnitude of the storms on windy.com and in NOAA’s GOES satellite imagery: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G18&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12
Temperature anomalies are tucked on:
tropicaltidbits.com
see: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024021212&fh=6
See details below in CURRENT EXTREMES: 11 March 2024
The windy.com wave map shows the deep storms:
see: https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,67.842,-1.230,3,i:pressure
Check out the albums below for detailed charts, satellite images, and observations:
Fall - Winter 2023:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6
Winter 2024: https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7
Review of past logs:
Atmospheric Rivers dominate precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere from Alaska to Greenland and Europe. These ARs are associated with intense cyclonic storms on the jet stream that dominate the weather. Recall tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones (Lows) and anticyclones (Highs) control our weather. Atmospheric River forecasts quantify the model computations of moisture flux from surface to 700 mb. This flux controls the duration and intensity of precipitation. Remember last winter when California had a record number of intense ARs that filled the “1000 yr“ drought’s reservoirs and extended Mammoth Mountain’s ski season into August 2023. Mammoth mountain is again accumulating heavy snows with a foot a day for 7 days in the last storm. California is drought free today as new ARs are pounding the coast again this winter triggering flash floods and debris flows in this saturated ground. The Colorado River Basin continues to benefit from these snowstorms from Colorado to Wyoming and Utah. Early season NRCS snow water equivalent SWE is running from 100 to 120% of normal.
NRCS Basin Data: https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#version=169&elements=&networks=!&states=!&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=any&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=true&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=2&basinOpacity=75&basinNoDataOpacity=25&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&popupBasin=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8¶meter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&monthPart=E&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&useMixedPast=true&seqColor=1&divColor=7&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2020&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&relativeDate=-1&lat=43.728&lon=-104.797&zoom=5.0
Atmospheric River forecast by Marty Ralph’s team:
https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/
An important component of the Grand Solar Minimum is an increase in clouds due to its impact on our solar system’s magnetosphere and increased numbers of deep space cosmic rays penetrating our upper atmosphere and generating cloud condensation nuclei. Clouds produce many complex phenomena ranging from cooling as solar radiation is reflected back to space, to surface warming as heat is retained at night and radiational cooling is reduced under stratus and in fog. On a large scale temperature gradients control the winds and jet stream dynamics. Clouds also impact the sea surface temperature SST which can have profound impacts on the Earth’s energy budget from the El Niño to Jet stream intensity and location. NASA is now predicting a solar maximum of cycle 25 by January 2024 with some CMEs. Note: current climate models fail to adequately simulate clouds; hence, a serious limit to their long term predictions. The primary critical impact of the GSM is late spring frosts and early fall frosts that limit the growing season. It is difficult for long term models to predict these critical events accurately.
Volcanic activity has increased dramatically in November 2023 with two stratovolcanoes pumping huge amounts of volcanic ash into the stratosphere in the northern Hemisphere from Kamchatka, and the tropics from New Guinea. Iceland’s seismic activity also increased significantly and resulted in a small volcanic eruption. Stratospheric volcanic dust from volcanoes cause significant atmospheric cooling. During the Little Ice Age there were many volcanoes associated with the Milankovitch Cycle that also contributed to the cooling. Japan had a devastating earthquake in the last weeks.
During the winter, low clouds can keep the polar regions warmer, thus reducing the N-S temperature gradient that may lead to a weaker jet stream and a meridional flow. This wavy N-S flow enhances the warm and cold sectors of storms and hence, extreme temperature swings. Thus far this winter we have a very wavy jet steam. Have a look at my album’s examples.
The El Niño continues to weaken yet it covers a large area; however, so far California is following the intense winter weather associated with an El Niño. The latest SST observations show cold water below the thin warm El Niño water, thus indicating the likelihood of a la Nina forming soon. NCAR scientists called for a severe winter. Thus far, the Ontario-Hudson Bay 700 mb low has been pulling cold air south into the East much like last winter. Note: the eastern N American low gyrates in the Jet, hence its impact varies. The West and High Plains are on the western edge of the deep cold air, hence, they have brief cold blasts and may benefit from the Pacific ARs heavy snow; however, they will enjoy somewhat warmer winter temperatures than the NE. The Sudden Stratospheric Warming - SSW was predicted to pull extremely cold air into the entire US by mid-January and again in February and March. This verified quite nicely in January - burr ! We’ll see how March goes. It would appear that CHINA and Asia have been hit the hardest with severe cold weather this season and are now warming.
Dr. Valentina Zharkova, a solar expert from the Ukraine, talks about the sun’s impact on the el Niño in her interview below. She reviews the Grand Solar Minimum and solar system impacts on climate variability.
Valentina Zharkova’s interview at the end of this link provides a comprehensive review of the GSM physics from an expert in this field. Dr. Zharkova reviews the physics, mathematics, and relationships of solar cycles, orbital mechanics, magnetosphere impacts, volcano cycles, and el Nino cycles related to the earth’s inclination…
https://electroverse.info/coldest-may-80n-greenland-gains-warmer-in-the-past-zharkova-interview/
Her primary web site: https://solargsm.com/
September recorded increases in SMB occurred +6 GT and +10 GT on 1 and 2 Sept respectively setting new records and again this week with 8-10 GT. The accumulated SMB curve dropped to normal in December-February and is now at or above normal. see:
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
and
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next3d,69.945,22.148,4,i:pressure,m:fDTafyg
The jet stream continues strong with a sharp meridional - wavy N-S flow from N America to Europe. Short waves trigger storms as they become more frequent and more powerful. Their wind shear can still spin up tornadoes in convective storms normally seen in spring and fall. Omega blocking ridges control the speed of system movement.
See:
https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?awp_0_40,34.089,20.303,4,i:pressure,m:ff3agyK
see: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
Snow:
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,74.902,-40.649,4,i:pressure,m:fOdadW1
Rain:
https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,next10d,51.944,-74.399,4,i:pressure
Japan and N Korea armed a bit with 2-38 cm of snow on the mountains of N Korea and Japan respectively with record cold and snow.
TropicalTidbits.com (forecast models) also gives you a look at the temperature departures from normal associated with these storms. You can see the warm and cold sectors - the normal variations of global temperature.
The Himalayas had heavy snow on the peaks with most areas receiving 1-3 m. The Tibetan Plateau is high ~3-5 km msl with new snow from the Himalaya to Shan ranges. Total snow on the ground on 9/3/23 still ranged from 0.5 to 5 m. This high elevation massif is a major factor controlling global weather patterns. Its unusual snowfall this summer may have a significant impact. The Hindukusch have had significant snows of 0.5-2.0 m again this week. Delhi set cold records, northern India and Pakistan had record snows last week.
Southern hemisphere jet is intensifying as the sun marched north cooling the Antarctic. It is now driving several large deep storms (976 to 936 mb) circling the Antarctic. Antarctic still has large areas in the interior below -40 to -65º C as measured in Windy’s satellite surface temperatures - even this January was reporting below -40ºC - a year without summer. On 3 Sept the South Pole reported -74.9ºC (-102ºF) and -80ºC at Vostok… Last week as the Antarctic begins cooling into Fall. Vostok broke -50ºC in December and -60 in March. This week the temperature again fell below -100ºF. Howling blizzards are still circling the Antarctic coast with 30 to 50 kt winds near these storms. The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea are 95% and 100% sea Ice covered respectively. SEA ICE is now increasing rapidly. McMurdo Base has been quite cold at -19 to -25ºC setting records and grounding aircraft in September. Temperatures in the Antarctic are cooling, and remaining significantly below normal. This week McMurdo rose to -19º C. The Antarctic set a November record cold of -60ºC. December and now January are setting new cold summer records: On Jan 4, 2024, the minimums at Concordia, JASE2007 AWS and Vostok were all, once again, below -40C, coming in at -40.8C, -40.2C and -40.1C, respectively. The South Pole set its 3rd coldest March record at -60ºC this week.The sun is moving N, so the cold is settling in down under. South Georgia Island had snows reaching 53-76 cm this week.
Southern Africa set cold records and snow as deep cyclonic storms march across the South Atlantic pumping Antarctic Air northward. Even Madagascar and Reunion Island set new cold records and had some snow in October 2023. Record snow fell in late October 2023.
AUSTRALIA has had a variety of summer weather. Antarctic highs set new cold records in June and July and are continuing to set cold records. Sydney set a new cold summer record when it failed to reach 32ºC (89.6ºF) in December 2022. Australia’s Victoria and South Australia had some much below normal temperatures and cold records to -2.7ºC. Western Australia cooled as the Antarctic waves moved north. Frosts developed in Queensland and the NW Territories - in subtropical Australia! This week large areas of Australia continued to have heavy rain : Darwin 150-500 mm, N Queensland had 95-162 mm as tropical cyclones hit. However, much of Australia had significant rains: Canberra 50 mm. Alice Springs remained cool at 20-25 ºC. Normally we see 30 to 45ºC in the satellite surface temperatures on windy.com but Alice Springs remained in the 20s with a couple 40ºC days. The cloud top temperatures near Darwin were -80ºC in deep thunderstorms. Last week a major Antarctic cold front moved northward over Australia triggering heavy rains up to Alice Springs. Monthly cold records were set in March. Note: Jennifer Marohasy discusses Australian forecasts and observations every week.
JENNIFER MAROHASY’s latest: https://jennifermarohasy.com/2024/01/cyclone-jasper-bom-forecasting-getting-to-the-truth/
Note: 2023 was the first time since 1987 when Australia’s mountains had snow on the ground all year. The mean February temperature was 0.2ºC below normal making the summer mean temp 0.5ºC below normal. New Zealand continues to increase snows over the South Island with 20-70 cm and heavy rain at low elevations on the West coast 100-300 mm. Note: October 25-30, 2023 the interior of Australia had satellite surface temperatures from 10 to 31ºC - spring was here with a few cool highs. During the past weeks, February 1-26, it was much cooler followed by a few 30-40ºC days. Last week the deserts were 10-15ºC behind an Antarctic front. Last week the Snowy range had 11 cm - an early start to winter.
South America was warm, but cold fronts are predicted to take temperatures 5-10ºC below normal next week. The Andes continued to build their glaciers (1-2 m). South American snow was at record levels. Patagonia had significant snows and skiing in the Andes continued in November 2023. Surface temperatures reached 30ºC this week in Patagonia. Argentina and Brazil continue to be warm, yet, some Antarctic cold fronts have triggered thunderstorms and locally heavy rains (100-300 mm) in the South of Brazil by Iguazu Falls. The Iguazu region had heavy rains and floods in contrast to a record drought in the Amazon Basin. However, the past month had heavy rain in the upper headwaters of the Rio Negro and Amazon Rivers. Deep thunderstorms with top temperatures of -70 to -80ºC are helping mitigate the drought. These mesoscale convective complexes can dump 100-200+ mm. Rio and Sao Paulo had flash floods and have remained wet.
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,-66.653,-60.776,4,i:pressure,m:NPaelA
For those interested in understanding the current weather, I have documented events in the Albums showing model, satellite, radar, images.
New 2/26/24
Winter 2024: https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7
EPOCH TIMES 5/1/24:
JOURNALIST REPORTS WITH REFEREED PROFESSIONAL JOURNALS:
Link: Climate change article:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/ominous-rumblings-from-the-climate-change-cult-5553549
Earth’s Future -mass extinction history
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022EF003336
UK energy policy:
Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00367-6 .
Anthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect. Here we used the abrupt reduction in anthropogenic emissions observed during the COVID-19 societal slow-down to characterize the aerosol masking effect over South Asia. During this period, the aerosol loading decreased substantially and our observations reveal that the magnitude of this aerosol demasking corresponds to nearly three-fourths of the CO2-induced radiative forcing over South Asia. Concurrent measurements over the northern Indian Ocean unveiled a ~7% increase in the earth’s surface-reaching solar radiation (surface brightening). Aerosol-induced atmospheric solar heating decreased by ~0.4 K d−1. Our results reveal that under clear sky conditions, anthropogenic emissions over South Asia lead to nearly 1.4 W m−2 heating at the top of the atmosphere during the period March–May. A complete phase-out of today’s fossil fuel combustion to zero-emission renewables would result in rapid aerosol demasking, while the GHGs linger on.
Global temperatures, CO2 concentrations and oceans
Allan T. Emrén
Published Online:June 30, 2023pp 401-412 https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276
Abstract
During the past 170 years, temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased. Published data on global temperature, CO2 data, and data on sea ice in the Arctic have been investigated. It is seen that support for human activities causing the observed increases is weak. It is found that the rate of change in CO2 concentration is controlled by global temperature rather than vice versa. To stop the growing concentration, the temperature has first to be decreased by about 1.4 K. This makes it questionable if attempts by humans to modify the global temperature, or the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will give any noticeable result. A correlation is found between seasonal variations in CO2 concentrations and Arctic sea ice quantities. The present increase in CO2 concentration and temperature is similar to one 55 million years ago, indicating that the Earth passed a 'tipping point' around 1750.
https://www.inderscienceonline.com/doi/abs/10.1504/IJGW.2023.132276
…….
WSJ: How Climate Policy Went Wrong:
A new documentary on climate: Well worth viewing —
Climate: The Movie" highlights a different perspective on the climate change debate and is supported by scientists who have signed the Clintel's World Climate Declaration. This group of researchers seeks to present an alternative narrative in the face of the dominant discourse.
Electroverse provides an excellent source of extremes not reported in the MSM:
Latest Extremes: 6 MAY 2024
Avalanche Hits Kashmir; Mid-May Frosts Forecast For Europe; Prairies Plantings To See Snow Delay; + California ‘Snow Deluges’ To End by 2100, So Says New Study…
April 30, 2024 Cap Allon
Avalanche Hits Kashmir
Amid heavy snow, an avalanche has hit the Sonmarg area of Jammu and Kashmir, India
The slip tore down the the ‘forest side of Sarbal’ on Monday, according to local news. Fortunately, the area isn’t populated and no casualties or damage have been reported.
Northern India has endured persistent, late-season snowfall these past few weeks, as the south endures a heatwave.
Many roads and mountain passes have been closed owing to the unseasonable snows; the Jammu-Srinagar national highway being the most notable, though on Tuesday the infamous Mughal road remained blocked for the fourth consecutive day.
Several schools have also been shut.
Mid-May Frosts Forecast For Europe
Europe’s crop-wrecking spring frosts could make a return in mid-May, according to latest GFS runs.
This past week has seen Arctic air crash into the continent and deliver record low temperatures from the UK to Ukraine.
Torches or ‘frost fires’ have lit-up European fields of late. Below are images of Karlín in the Czech Republic as winegrowers prepared for a freezing night.Plenty of May snow is also forecast over the Alps, as well as the Pyrenees and Scandinavia, with pockets also falling across the likes of the Romania, Ukraine, Turkey and even Scotland.
Last week, the Czech Republic endured its coldest-ever April temperature (-15C / 5F).
The polar outbreak has destroyed almost the entire fruit harvest in the western part of the country, and more than 50% in the east. The head of the country’s Union of Gardeners called it, “one of the biggest disasters for the industry in the last 100 years.”
Crop losses haven’t just been confined to the Czech Republic, with the likes of France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine among the other nations reporting heavy losses.
Looking ahead, Europe could be on for something similar come mid-May, though possibly not quite as severe (fingers crossed).
Plenty of May snow is also forecast over the Alps, as well as the Pyrenees and Scandinavia, with pockets also falling across the likes of the Romania, Ukraine, Turkey and even Scotland.
Prairies Plantings To See Snow Delay
North American farmers have started their spring seeding operations, as they wrap up soil tests.
This spring has seen a cool start, so reports centralalbertaonline.com, but producers are slowly putting seeds in the ground across the Prairies, with reports of Canadian sowings getting underway in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.
A mix of rain and snow is forecast for much of the prairies, including into the CONUS, as the calendar flips to May –the theme of the past month– which is expected to cause some delays.
Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement in Alberta, with a foot of snow possible by Thursday morning, with the highest amounts falling west of Highway 2 over higher terrain.
Rare April Cold Hits Antarctica (-112F); Heavy Spring Snow Traps 1,000 Vehicles In Northern India; Wild Swings In New Jersey; The Wind Didn’t Blow As Hard In 2023; + Big Solar Flare
May 1, 2024 Cap Allon
Rare April Cold Hits Antarctica
Extreme cold has arrived unusually early in Antarctica this year.
Vostok, a Russian research station in inland Princess Elizabeth Land, posted a low of -80C (-112F) on April 29:
This is Vostok’s first sub -80C in the month of April since April 19, 1998, and only the fourth occurrence in the operational history of the research facility (1958). The chronology: -81.8C on April 25, 1964; -80.7C on April 24, 1981; -80.7C on April 19, 1998; and now -80C on April 29, 2024. For ref: Antarctica’s lowest-ever reliable air temperature remains the -89.2C (–128.6F) set on July 21, 1983.
The bottom of the world is cooling, as evidenced by the data (click below for a more detailed breakdown).
Also just in is the South Pole Station’s preliminary temperature for the month of April.
With an average of -59.6C, or -2.2C below the multidecadal baseline, April 2024 makes for the seventh colder-than-average month in a row. We’re waiting on the Vostok data to update the graphic below–which is also assured of being below the norm.
A cooling Antarctica is one of the biggest headaches for the AGW Party. That’s why it rarely gets a mention despite it being home to 90% of Earth’s freshwater (locked up as ice) and so the key player when it comes sea level rise.
2023’s dip in sea ice extent makes the news, of course, but the 2024 recovery (shown below) doesn’t. This is further proof, if ever you needed it, that an agenda is in play, that rather than reporting on the facts, the establishment is curating a narrative.
Heavy Spring Snow Traps 1,000 Vehicles In Northern India
Heavy snow in and around the Atal Tunnel in Himachal Pradesh, India has trapped more than 1,000 vehicles.
The snowstorm blocked roads and stranded 6,000+ people in total, as per reports.
Local police said the snowfall caught many off guard, leading to a massive traffic jam.
Wild Swings In New Jersey
Wild temperature swings have been felt in the likes of New Jersey in recent days, from widespread frost and freeze warnings late last week, to summer-like warmth early this.
The record books will evidence the swing. A daily record low temperature was tied in the Trenton area Friday, which was chased by a daily record high tied Monday afternoon.
Looking ahead, yet another swing is already playing out, with a swath of the Garden State cooling right back down again — owing to a stalled ‘backdoor front’ that is pushing in cooler air from the north and east, as well as a cold front blowing over from the west.
The Wind Didn’t Blow As Hard In 2023
Even with additional capacity, U.S. wind power declined in 2023. Why? The wind didn’t blow as hard.
Wind turbine generation across the United States declined in 2023 for the first time since the mid-1990s, even with the addition of 6.2 GW of new wind capacity, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals.
Wind generation in 2023 totaled 425,235 GWh, 2.1% less than the 434,297 GWh generated in 2022.
Missing Spring In Jackson, WY; Cool Summer Forecast For Much Of The Northern Hemisphere; Record May Cold Sweeps India; + Activity At Ruang Continues, SO2 Spreads
May 2, 2024 Cap Allon
Missing Spring In Jackson, WY
The calendar has flipped to May, but the expected seasonal warmth is nowhere to be found across the likes of Wyoming.
The first day of May was unseasonably chilly in these parts. The month commenced with 10 inches of new snow in the Tetons above 9,000 feet (as of Wednesday afternoon). Even the town of Jackson saw heavy snow showers dust grassy surfaces.
https://electroverse.info/jackson-cool-summer-nh-record-cold-india-ruang-so2-spreads/
The cold has been quite something, too, even for Jackson. Accompanying the snow, thermometers on Wednesday struggled to a high of just 38F (3.3C) setting a new record low-max for the date. Jackson’s average high in early-May stands at 60F (15.6C).
Looking ahead, temperatures will remain well below average for the foreseeable, barring a one-day reprieve on Saturday when the low-60s are forecast.
On Sunday and Monday, a more potent low pressure system is expected to barrel into the region, resulting in more widespread precipitation, including significant mountain snow, along with another drop in temperatures.
Cool Summer Forecast For Much Of The Northern Hemisphere
Due natural atmospheric factors, such as a developing La Niña and the (gradual) dissipating of water vapor from the Hunga-Tonga eruption, the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2024 is look a heck of a lot colder than last year’s.
Below is a long-range forecast (June-July-August), courtesy of the CanSIPS climate model (Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System). The map is showing 2m temperature anomalies based on the 1981-2010 reference period.
Much of the CONUS, the lower portions at least, can expect a slightly warmer-than-average summer, according to the CanSIPS, but a look at Canada, Alaska, the majority of northern Asia, Europe and North Africa reveals that ‘blues’ will the dominate color.
Temperatures in these parts have already struggled, making for a lackluster spring.
I’ve written previously about the crop-wrecking frosts in Europe (due to return in mid-May), but even more anomalous has been the vast mass of polar air to the east, engulfing much of the Asian continent, including practically ALL of Russia.
Record May Cold Sweeps India
Case in point: While the southern tip of India endures a much-publicized heatwave, central and northern regions are shivering through an unnewsworthy return to winter, one comprising of record low temperatures and feet of late-season snow.
The coldest May temperatures in decades are sweeping the likes of Haryana, Rajasthan and Hisar — to name just three.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) recorded a low of 15.3C (59.4F) in Fatehpur, which is 10C below the norm. Anomalous lows were also posted in Sikar (12.8C/55F), Jammu (12.9C/55.2F), Yamunanagar (14.5C/58.1F), and Baran (also 14.5C).
The IMD station in Sundernagar, Himachal sank to 8.1C (46.6F) on Thursday morning, which made for the lowest May temperature ever recorded at the observatory, comfortably besting the previous record of 8.6C (47.5F) set on May 16, 1987.
Activity At Ruang Continues, SO2 Spreads
Explosive activity continues at Ruang, with additional Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) injected into the atmosphere. Following the string of stratospheric eruptions last week, additional plumes were released Tuesday rising to an estimated 63,000 ft (19,200 m).
Eruptions at a remote Indonesian volcano have forced more than half a dozen airports to close, and ash has spread as far as Malaysia, according to officials.
Two rescue ships, including a warship, were dispatched to evacuate thousands of people from the neighboring Tagulandang island due to fears that parts of the volcano could fall into the sea, potentially causing a tsunami.
A number of experts are calling the Ruang episodes the second-largest eruption of the century. With the eruptive phase still ongoing however, an official Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) rating is still yet to be assigned (though a VEI 6 looks likely).
One thing is for sure: Ruang is a cooler.
Vostok’s Coldest April Since 1999; Global Temperature Expected To Fall In May; Tonga Eruption Responsible For Toasty 2023; + X-Flare
May 3, 2024 Cap Allon
Vostok’s Coldest April Since 1999
The monthly average temperature for Vosok is in, and it reads even more anomalous than the South Pole Station.
With a reading of -67.9C (-90.2F), last month at Vostok was a substantial -3.1C below the 1958-2023 reference period, making for the station’s coldest April since 1999 (-70.4C/-94.7F).
Vostok saw -80C (-112F) on April 29, the station’s first sub -80C in the month of April since April 19, 1998, and only the fourth occurrence in the operational history of the research facility (1958), these being the -81.8C on April 25, 1964; the -80.7C on April 24, 1981; the -80.7C on April 19, 1998; and now the -80C on April 29, 2024.
Extreme chills arrived unusually early in Antarctica this year, and they’re intensifying.
At the key research facilities of Vostok and the South Pole, April has gone and made for the seventh colder-than-average month in a row (below graphic to be updated).
May has started off anomalously-cold and all, with -76.2 (-105.2F) registered at Vostok on the opening day of the month.
For more of a detailed breakdown of Antarctica’s recent record-setting cold, click here:
The new station, located close to the old which is now ‘sinking into the snow’, was completed in January 2024, though won’t be fully operational until 2025.
The state-of-the-art complex consists of five modules: two residential, two engineering, as well as one with a garage and a workshop.
In winter, the facility will accommodate up to 15 people; in other seasons, up to 35.
Regionally, temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere went up, while for the Southern Hemisphere they went down. The USA48 posted the largest month-on-month rise, from +0.23C in March to +1.23C in April, with Australia noting the biggest drop, from +1.29C to +0.48C.
This anomalous warmth, while proving persistent, is fully explained by the ‘trifecta of warming’ that built through 2023 — these being El Niño, Solar Maximum and the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption, all of which are now showing signs of waning.
Dr Roy Spencer, the man charged with maintaining the UAH satellite-based temperature record, contends that cooling is now on the cards:
“It should be noted that the CDAS [Climate Data Assimilation System] surface temperature anomaly has been falling in recent months (+0.71, +0.60, +0.53, +0.52 deg. C over the last four months) while the satellite deep-layer atmospheric temperature has been rising. This is usually an indication of extra heat being lost by the surface to the deep-troposphere through convection, and is what is expected due to the waning El Niño event. I suspect next month’s tropospheric temperature will fall as a result.“
Tonga Eruption Responsible For Toasty 2023
The rare convergence of a number of events “that may not be repeated for hundreds or even thousands of years” represents a “unique learning opportunity” for climatologists, said Dr. Javier Vinós discussing the Hunga Tonga submarine volcanic eruption of January 2022.
Dr. Vinós, notes the Tonga eruption boosted upper atmospheric water vapor by an unprecedented 10% (at least), and is the most likely cause of the recent warming spike.
Climate scientists were initially shocked by the ferocity of the Hunga Tonga eruption, and within months a group of 31 European scientists, led by Sergey Khaykin, drew attention to the immense discharge of water, ranking it “among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observational era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate”.
29 April 2024
Spring storms rocked the central US from Texas to Michigan and points East. Tornado Alley had over 118 tornadoes in 48 hrs according to CNN. The Storm prediction Center (SPC) had numerous warnings out this week with extremely dangerous tornadoes and severe thunderstorms creating havoc and death. The meandering jet stream - Rosby waves traveled around the Northern Hemisphere dumping heavy snows in the Rockies, creating extreme cold fronts along the N-S Jet track that combined with a strong Atmospheric River AR from the Gulf of Mexico to Canada. As cyclonic storms exit the Rockies, their circulation creates strong cold fronts and warm fronts with moist unstable air ahead of the cold front. The cold front lies along the jet stream which has vertical and horizontal wind shear that can spin-up tornadoes. My Winter 2024 album documents these conditions and the Storm Prediction Center’s forecasts. A job well done. Northern areas had frost and hard freezes in the East, while the West was warm.
A deep closed low sat over Europe with short waves gyrating within it creating significant rain and snow in the Alps. Slovenia cleared up and warmed by the weekend. Cold records from France to Ukraine have created the biggest disaster in crop losses in the past 100 years. Crops from vineyards to orchards have been severely hit. Temperatures fell from record highs ~ 30ºC to below freezing and down to -5ºC - hard freezes within 24 hours.
The Southern Hemisphere continued to cool as the jet stream increased in intensity and deep storms 948-970 mb circled the Antarctic with one deep storm dumping gigatons on the Thwaites Glacier. Greenland also had a record day with 7 GT after a very quiet period. Australia continued to have heavy rains on the coast with Sydney having over 300 mm. New Zealand’s Alps had more snow and Australia’s Snowy Range had significant early snows. Columbia’s drought ended with heavy 200-700 mm rains during the past 2 weeks.
THE FOLLOWING TABLES show the observed temperatures at key points from Greenland to Vostok and the ECMWF 10-day snowfall forecasts at key points around the world where glaciers may be receding or growing.
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES and ECMWF 10-DAY SNOWFALL FORECASTS:
See: https://photos.app.goo.gl/D4FSQPjmzrAwbS2q9
You can see the magnitude of the storms on windy.com and in NOAA’s GOES satellite imagery: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G18&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12
Temperature anomalies are tucked on:
tropicaltidbits.com
see: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024021212&fh=6
See details below in CURRENT EXTREMES: 11 March 2024
The windy.com wave map shows the deep storms:
see: https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,67.842,-1.230,3,i:pressure
Check out the albums below for detailed charts, satellite images, and observations:
Fall - Winter 2023:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6
Winter 2024: https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7
Review:
Atmospheric Rivers dominate precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere from Alaska to Greenland and Europe. These ARs are associated with intense cyclonic storms on the jet stream that dominate the weather. Recall tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones (Lows) and anticyclones (Highs) control our weather. Atmospheric River forecasts quantify the model computations of moisture flux from surface to 700 mb. This flux controls the duration and intensity of precipitation. Remember last winter when California had a record number of intense ARs that filled the “1000 yr“ drought’s reservoirs and extended Mammoth Mountain’s ski season into August 2023. Mammoth mountain is again accumulating heavy snows with a foot a day for 7 days in the last storm. California is drought free today as new ARs are pounding the coast again this winter triggering flash floods and debris flows in this saturated ground. The Colorado River Basin continues to benefit from these snowstorms from Colorado to Wyoming and Utah. Early season NRCS snow water equivalent SWE is running from 100 to 120% of normal.
NRCS Basin Data: https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#version=169&elements=&networks=!&states=!&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=any&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=true&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=2&basinOpacity=75&basinNoDataOpacity=25&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&popupBasin=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8¶meter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&monthPart=E&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&useMixedPast=true&seqColor=1&divColor=7&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2020&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&relativeDate=-1&lat=43.728&lon=-104.797&zoom=5.0
Atmospheric River forecast by Marty Ralph’s team:
https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/
An important component of the Grand Solar Minimum is an increase in clouds due to its impact on our solar system’s magnetosphere and increased numbers of deep space cosmic rays penetrating our upper atmosphere and generating cloud condensation nuclei. Clouds produce many complex phenomena ranging from cooling as solar radiation is reflected back to space, to surface warming as heat is retained at night and radiational cooling is reduced under stratus and in fog. On a large scale temperature gradients control the winds and jet stream dynamics. Clouds also impact the sea surface temperature SST which can have profound impacts on the Earth’s energy budget from the El Niño to Jet stream intensity and location. NASA is now predicting a solar maximum of cycle 25 by January 2024 with some CMEs. Note: current climate models fail to adequately simulate clouds; hence, a serious limit to their long term predictions. The primary critical impact of the GSM is late spring frosts and early fall frosts that limit the growing season. it is difficult for long term models to predict these critical events accurately.
Volcanic activity has increased dramatically in November 2023 with two stratovolcanoes pumping huge amounts of volcanic ash into the stratosphere in the northern Hemisphere from Kamchatka, and the tropics from New Guinea. Iceland’s seismic activity also increased significantly and resulted in a small volcanic eruption. Stratospheric volcanic dust from volcanoes cause significant atmospheric cooling. During the Little Ice Age there were many volcanoes associated with the Milankovitch Cycle that also contributed to the cooling. Japan had a devastating earthquake in the last weeks.
During the winter, low clouds can keep the polar regions warmer, thus reducing the N-S temperature gradient that may lead to a weaker jet stream and a meridional flow. This wavy N-S flow enhances the warm and cold sectors of storms and hence, extreme temperature swings. Thus far this winter we have a very wavy jet steam. Have a look at my album’s examples.
The El Niño continues to weaken yet it covers a large area; however, so far California is following the intense winter weather associated with an El Niño. The latest SST observations show cold water below the thin warm El Niño water, thus indicating the likelihood of a la Niña forming soon. NCAR scientists called for a severe winter. Thus far, the Ontario-Hudson Bay 700 mb low has been pulling cold air south into the East much like last winter. Note: the eastern N American low gyrates in the Jet, hence its impact varies. The West and High Plains are on the western edge of the deep cold air, hence, they have brief cold blasts and may benefit from the Pacific ARs heavy snow; however, they will enjoy somewhat warmer winter temperatures than the NE. The Sudden Stratospheric Warming - SSW was predicted to pull extremely cold air into the entire US by mid-January and again in February and March. This verified quite nicely in January - burr ! We’ll see how March goes. It would appear that CHINA and Asia have been hit the hardest with severe cold weather this season and are now warming.
Dr. Valentina Zharkova, a solar expert from the Ukraine, talks about the sun’s impact on the el Niño in her interview below. She reviews the Grand Solar Minimum and solar system impacts on climate variability.
Valentina Zharkova’s interview at the end of this link provides a comprehensive review of the GSM physics from an expert in this field. Dr. Zharkova reviews the physics, mathematics, and relationships of solar cycles, orbital mechanics, magnetosphere impacts, volcano cycles, and el Nino cycles related to the earth’s inclination…
https://electroverse.info/coldest-may-80n-greenland-gains-warmer-in-the-past-zharkova-interview/
Her primary web site: https://solargsm.com/
September recorded increases in SMB occurred +6 GT and +10 GT on 1 and 2 Sept respectively setting new records and again this week with 8-10 GT. The accumulated SMB curve dropped to normal in December-February and is now at or above normal. see:
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
and
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next3d,69.945,22.148,4,i:pressure,m:fDTafyg
The jet stream continues strong with a sharp meridional - wavy N-S flow from N America to Europe. Short waves trigger storms as they become more frequent and more powerful. Their wind shear can still spin up tornadoes in convective storms normally seen in spring and fall. Omega blocking ridges control the speed of system movement.
See:
https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?awp_0_40,34.089,20.303,4,i:pressure,m:ff3agyK
see: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
Snow:
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,74.902,-40.649,4,i:pressure,m:fOdadW1
Rain:
https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,next10d,51.944,-74.399,4,i:pressure
Japan and N Korea armed a bit with 2-38 cm of snow on the mountains of N Korea and Japan respectively with record cold and snow.
TropicalTidbits.com (forecast models) also gives you a look at the temperature departures from normal associated with these storms. You can see the warm and cold sectors - the normal variations of global temperature.
The Himalayas had heavy snow on the peaks with most areas receiving 1-3 m. The Tibetan Plateau is high ~3-5 km msl with new snow from the Himalaya to Shan ranges. Total snow on the ground on 9/3/23 still ranged from 0.5 to 5 m. This high elevation massif is a major factor controlling global weather patterns. Its unusual snowfall this summer may have a significant impact. The Hindukusch have had significant snows of 0.5-2.0 m again this week. Delhi set cold records, northern India and Pakistan had record snows last week.
Southern hemisphere jet is intensifying as the sun marched north cooling the Antarctic. It is now driving several large deep storms (976 to 936 mb) circling the Antarctic. Antarctic still has large areas in the interior below -40 to -65º C as measured in Windy’s satellite surface temperatures - even this January was reporting below -40ºC - a year without summer. On 3 Sept the South Pole reported -74.9ºC (-102ºF) and -80ºC at Vostok… Last week as the Antarctic begins cooling into Fall. Vostok broke -50ºC in December and -60 in March. This week the temperature again fell below -100ºF. Howling blizzards are still circling the Antarctic coast with 30 to 50 kt winds near these storms. The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea are 98% and 100% sea Ice covered respectively. SEA ICE is now increasing rapidly. McMurdo Base has been quite cold at -19 to -25ºC setting records and grounding aircraft in September. Temperatures in the Antarctic are cooling, and remaining significantly below normal. This week McMurdo rose to -19º C. The Antarctic set a November record cold of -60ºC. December and now January are setting new cold summer records: On Jan 4, 2024, the minimums at Concordia, JASE2007 AWS and Vostok were all, once again, below -40C, coming in at -40.8C, -40.2C and -40.1C, respectively. The South Pole set its 3rd coldest March record at -60ºC this week.The sun is moving N, so the cold is settling in down under. South Georgia Island had snows reaching 53-76 cm this week.
Southern Africa set cold records and snow as deep cyclonic storms march across the South Atlantic pumping Antarctic Air northward. Even Madagascar and Reunion Island set new cold records and had some snow in October 2023. Record snow fell in late October 2023.
AUSTRALIA has had a variety of summer weather. Antarctic highs set new cold records in June and July and are continuing to set cold records. Sydney set a new cold summer record when it failed to reach 32ºC (89.6ºF) in December 2022. Australia’s Victoria and South Australia had some much below normal temperatures and cold records to -2.7ºC. Western Australia cooled as the Antarctic waves moved north. Frosts developed in Queensland and the NW Territories - in subtropical Australia! This week large areas of Australia continued to have heavy rain : Darwin 150-500 mm, N Queensland had 95-162 mm as tropical cyclones hit. However, much of Australia had significant rains: Canberra 50 mm. Alice Springs remained cool at 20-25 ºC. Normally we see 30 to 45ºC in the satellite surface temperatures on windy.com but Alice Springs remained in the 20s with a couple 40ºC days. The cloud top temperatures near Darwin were -80ºC in deep thunderstorms. Last week a major Antarctic cold front moved northward over Australia triggering heavy rains up to Alice Springs. Monthly cold records were set in March. Note: Jennifer Marohasy discusses Australian forecasts and observations every week.
JENNIFER MAROHASY’s latest: https://jennifermarohasy.com/2024/01/cyclone-jasper-bom-forecasting-getting-to-the-truth/
Note: 2023 was the first time since 1987 when Australia’s mountains had snow on the ground all year. The mean February temperature was 0.2ºC below normal making the summer mean temp 0.5ºC below normal. New Zealand continues to increase snows over the South Island with 20-70 cm and heavy rain at low elevations on the West coast 100-300 mm. Note: October 25-30, 2023 the interior of Australia had satellite surface temperatures from 10 to 31ºC - spring was here with a few cool highs. During the past weeks, February 1-26, it was much cooler followed by a few 30-40ºC days. Last week the deserts were 10-15ºC behind an Antarctic front. Last week the Snowy range had 11 cm - an early start to winter.
South America was warm, but cold fronts are predicted to take temperatures 5-10ºC below normal next week. The Andes continued to build their glaciers (1-3 m). South American snow was at record levels. Patagonia had significant snows and skiing in the Andes continued in November 2023. Surface temperatures reached 30ºC this week in Patagonia. Argentina and Brazil continue to be warm, yet, some Antarctic cold fronts have triggered thunderstorms and locally heavy rains (100-300 mm) in the South of Brazil by Iguazu Falls. The Iguazu region had heavy rains and floods in contrast to a record drought in the Amazon Basin. However, the past month had heavy rain in the upper headwaters of the Rio Negro and Amazon Rivers. Deep thunderstorms with top temperatures of -70 to -80ºC are helping mitigate the drought. These mesoscale convective complexes can dump 100-200+ mm. Rio and Sao Paulo had flash floods and have remained wet. Columbia had heavy rains (200-700 mm) that are also mitigating its drought.
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,-66.653,-60.776,4,i:pressure,m:NPaelA
For those interested in understanding the current weather, I have documented events in the Albums showing model, satellite, radar, images.
New 2/26/24
Winter 2024: https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7
WSJ: How Climate Policy Went Wrong:
A new documentary on climate: Well worth viewing —
"Climate: The Movie" highlights a different perspective on the climate change debate and is supported by scientists who have signed the Clintel's World Climate Declaration. This group of researchers seeks to present an alternative narrative in the face of the dominant discourse.
Electroverse provides an excellent source of extremes not reported in the MSM:
Latest Extremes: 29 April 2024
Europe Breaks Historic Low Temperature Records As Rare Spring Snow Falls On Major Cities; + Establishment Obfuscations
April 23, 2024 Cap Allon
Europe Breaks Historic Low Temperature Records As Rare Spring Snow Falls On Major Cities
Europe has endured a violent swing between extremes this month.
“April 2024 will go down as one of the most incredible flips on record … Summer to winter for some,” so say the experts.
Following a spell of anomalous spring warmth, exceptional cold is now striking the likes of Italy where dozens of low temperature records have fallen (for the time of year).
Italians have been enduring some of the coldest daily highs in books dating back 100+ years, to 1873. And even at low elevations, Tmaxes have struggled to 7C (44.6F).
“Absolutely historic,” writes @extremetemps on X.
In France, the southern city of Nice, with 4.4C (39.9F), has set it lowest late-April temperature since 1951. Technically that’s true, but that 1951 reading was actually set at night. Monday’s 4.4C occurred during the day which, according to researchers, “probably hasn’t happened [in the French Riviera] since the Little Ice Age.”
https://electroverse.info/europe-low-temperature-records-rare-snow-establishment-obfuscations/
Similarly in Denmark’s capital Copenhagen, a very cold day was endured there. “When the final numbers are in it may turn out to have been the second-coldest day in 250 years this late in the spring,” writes local weather researcher Sebastian Pelt (certainly the coldest since 1941). Elsewhere, Jægersborg’s 2.7C (36.9F) made for Denmark’s lowest daily max this late since 1988.
Tryvannshøgda, Norway posted -4.4C (24.1F) overnight Monday, the lowest temperature so late in spring since 1973.
As well as one of the coldest late-April’s on record, this will go down as one of Europe’s snowiest, and all. Nations have gone from summer-like warmth to heavy late-season snow in a matter of days.
In Albania, for example, local media reported Monday that “heavy snowfalls have continued with high intensity.” The city of Puka has received 25 cm (10 inches) so far. Heavier falls have been noted elsewhere, with plows required in Bogë-Theth:
While in Helsinki, a major ‘blackwinter’ event (or ‘takatalvi’, as the Finns say) is unfolding there:
Referring to the record books, the last time Finland’s capital saw more snow this late into spring was 106 years ago, in 1918:
Europe’s violent swing between extremes has been amplified by spring (a volatile season) but they are expected during times of low solar activity.
As has been contended for many years now: Reduced energy entering the jet streams is changing their straight ZONAL flow to a wavy MERIDIONAL one, where a region’s weather is determined by which ‘side’ of the stream it’s on. If it is located ‘above’ the stream (in the NH) then it’s in for a spell of unseasonably cold conditions–open to influxes of Arctic air; while conversely, if the region is ‘under’ the jet stream then it is set for anomalously hot conditions–subject to air masses dragged up from the tropics.
‘Polar Amplification’ is the theory most-used when trying to explain-away those pesky cold outbreaks, but it is far from widely agreed upon, even in AGW circles.
The theory states that, “because the Earth’s polar regions are warming more quickly than the rest of the world, the temperature contrast that drives jet streams has decreased (making for weaker streams)”.
However, for it to work BOTH poles need to be warming, which simply isn’t the case.
Temperatures in the Arctic are threatening to plateau, with ice holding up incredibly well of late. While across the Antarctic, the continent is cooling, has been for decades, yet the southern jets are simultaneously weakening which debunks the Polar Amplification theory, meaning something else must be controlling the jets. Solar activity is my contention.
Antarctica has been the bane of the ‘global warming narrative’ for decades.
Official data reveals East Antarctica, which covers two thirds of the continent, has cooled 2.8C over the past 40-or-so years, with West Antarctica cooling 1.6C.
Moreover, that cooling has only intensified in recent years.
Following its coldest winter (April -Sept) on record in 2021, Antarctica has been posting colder-than-average months ever since.
The below graphic shows the mean monthly anomalies from Oct 2023 – March 2024 for two key climate stations, South Pole and Vostok. All months have been colder-than-average at both stations vs reference periods 1991-2020 and 1958-2023, respectively.
The researchers note that over the last seven decades, the Antarctic ice sheet (home to 90% of Earth’s surface freshwater) has “modestly expanded” and warming has been “nearly non-existent” over much of the ice sheet (i.e. the majority of the ice sheet has cooled, as evidenced in their own graphic above).
Given this unalarming reality, it is even more telling when the likes of the BBC and CNN devote the majority of their ink to the small pocket of warming confined to the Antarctic Peninsula, warming that 1) can be explained by natural mechanisms (such as an uptick in the region’s volcanic activity, for one) and also 2) is more than offset by EVERYWHERE ELSE cooling.
Carbon dioxide isn’t the boogeyman, and I would go so far as to say that the majority of scientists know this. The historic and paleo climate data are unmistakably clear. The issue is funding, and also dogma. No grants are awarded for research that isn’t grounded on the premise that a changing climate is due to human prosperity (i.e. the burning of cheap and reliable fossil fuels), and researchers know better than to publicly share what they really think given the professional repercussions, which include smearing, defunding and deplatforming.
No Need For Category 6 Hurricane Designation; Record Cold Strikes Northern Ontario; Rare April Snow Continues Across Europe; + “Earth Is Headed Into A New Little Ice Age”…
April 24, 2024 Cap Allon
No Need For Category 6 Hurricane Designation
A growing number of CAGW advocates are calling for a category 6 hurricane designation on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.
These calls are baseless however, and do nothing but further-expose the propagation of dumb by the useful idiots of academia.
Plotting the global total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) by year from 1980 to 2023 (a calculation that integrates each tropical cyclone’s intensity and duration, summing up the total for each year), no meaningful trend is revealed in the satellite record.
https://electroverse.info/cat-6-record-cold-canada-april-snow-europe-new-little-ice-age/
Record Cold Strikes Northern Ontario
Arctic cold has invaded Ontario this week, setting records in the northwest reserve of Kitchenuhmaykoosib Inninuwug.
Thermometers Tuesday morning sank to -19C (-2.2F), smashing the old record (for the day) of -11.7C (10.9F) from 2017. These are “extreme cold conditions for spring,” reports netnewsledger.com, with frostbite a real concern.
The mercury is forecast to reach -17C (1.4F) early Wednesday morning, likely setting another daily record.
Fierce chills have been gripping this part of the world of late. Much of the North American continent, in fact, has been battling a descending polar air mass, from Kitchenuhmaykoosib in northern Ontario all the way down to Laredo in southern Texas.
Rare April Snow Continues Across Europe
Europe’s biting cold is persisting, intensifying even, as is the out-of-season snow.
Germany’s tallest mountain, Zugspitze (9,718 feet) has received 5 feet of snow. Zugpitze Ski Area is celebrating “perfect conditions” as it undertakes summer preparations.
Away from the Alps, much of Europe has been blanketed this week — from Scandinavia and Scotland, down to the Pyrenees, and out east across the likes of Slovakia and Ukraine.
On Tuesday morning, a thick layer of snow greeted much of Latvia, including the Kurzeme District.
Residents there have reported as much as a 20 cm (8 inches) of rare late-April snow
Forecasts call for frosts in the coming nights, down to a crop-threatening low of -5C (23F). Cold is the bigger concern for Europe right now, particularly for the growers.
Adding to the record lows reported yesterday, a remarkable -15.7C (3.7F) has been posted at Rolava, Czech Republic — the country’s coldest late-April low on record.
“Earth Is Headed Into A New Little Ice Age”
One Ukrainian the media refuses to adorn with airtime, pity and phony applause (perhaps the only one) is Professor Valentina Zharkova, an astrophysicist now based at the Northumbria University, Newcastle, England.
Due to changing solar activity, the Earth is headed into a new Little Ice Age, warns Zharkova, and “there’s nothing we can do about it.”
As reported last week by German website report24.news, “This is due to the changing solar activity,” explains Zharkova, who expects, via her magnetic field and TSI analysis, that Earth’s average temperature will fall by 1C over the next 30 years.
When the Sun is less active, its decreasing magnetic field leads to a decrease in radiation intensity, continues report24.news. Less solar radiation inevitably means less heat. According to Zharkova, such a change occurs every 350-400 years, they’re called Grand Solar Minimums (GSMs), and the professor believes we officially entered one in 2020, one that won’t abate until 2053.
Per her latest study (Zharkova et. al 2023), Earth’s Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has increased by approx 1 to 1.5 W/m² from its depths in 1700 to its “maximum amplitude” in cycle 24 (2020). This resulted in a global temperature increase of about 1.5C.
Over the next 30 years however Earth will experience a period of significantly reduced solar output which will lead to a climate “similar to the Maunder Minimum” (1645-1715 CE). Zharkova is expecting Earth to be just 0.5C warmer than it was in 1700.
This would be a problem. Cold kills. The Maunder Minimum was one of the strongest GSMs on record. As documented by NASA, it sent Europe and North America into a “deep freeze”:
“From 1650 to 1710, temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere plunged when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Maunder Minimum. During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun, and the overall brightness of the Sun decreased slightly. Already in the midst of a colder-than-average period called the Little Ice Age, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze: alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland; sea ice crept south from the Arctic; and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly—an event that is rare today.”
In the report24.news article, Zharkova speaks a word or two to the upcoming cold: “I only feel sympathy for the people who have invested in solar [power] systems. During the Maunder Minimum, there were years when there was no summer at all — there was a brief spring, then fall, then winter again. And if there’s snow on your solar panels or the sky is cloudy, they’re useless.”
Frost Damage Reported From France To Ukraine; Growers In Canada And Northeast Also Suffer; + Australia To Shiver Into May, Defying BoM Predictions
April 25, 2024 Cap Allon
Frost Damage Reported From France To Ukraine
“We are really at the critical frost threshold for apple trees and pears” said Mathieu Tissot, producer of the Tissot orchards in Haute-Savoie, France following several below-freezing nights.
Tissot orchards produce 1,600 tonnes of apples and pears each year, but recent frosts have threatened that yield. For the past week or so, record cold has hit.
“We had three nights including a very significant night where we went down to -2.3C (27.9F),” said Mathieu, “the critical frost threshold for apple trees and pears”.
Mathieu said gusty winds have helped his buds to some degree (wind reduces the formation of frost from radiative cooling), but now the breeze has died down and the cold has intensified. “We had to start the fight again last night,” he said.
In scenes repeated across France, wind machines are being used to propel hot air around orchard and vineyards. “We spend every 8 to 10 minutes in the same place to allow the plant to dry,” explained Mathieu.
More traditional ‘frost fires’ have been lit up and down the country.
The true extent of the losses won’t be known for weeks, but they look extensive.
“This period of cold calms the sap and we are afraid that the fruit will fall naturally. We will [know the damage] within two weeks, we cannot have it immediately. We are trying to save the flowers,” said Mathieu Tissot.
Not confined to France, this week’s crop-wrecking freeze is sweeping Switzerland, too:
And as far east as Ukraine, losses have hit here and all — for apples, pears and stone fruits, as per a preliminary EastFruit report.
The country’s main apple growing region, Vinnytsia, has fared the worst with some farms there reporting 50+% losses following overnight lows of -3C (26.6F), and beyond.
Less extensive frost damage has been noted in the Chernivtsi region, of maybe 15%.
Stone fruits losses in the Mykolaiv region have been noted, for cherries and apricots.
Looking ahead, a brief reprieve will be enjoyed by central regions next week. But European growers should prepare to relight those frost fires around May 7 when a comparable mass of polar cold descends on the continent–as per latest GFS runs: see Album
Growers In Canada And Northeast Also Suffer
Damaging frosts have hit North America this week and all, particularly Eastern Canada and the Northeast United States.
Arctic air has dropped southward into the Upper Midwest and the Northeast in recent days, setting off snow in parts of the northern tier and also bring damaging frosts and freezes to many growing regions.
The batch of air, encapsulated by a dome of high pressure, could run into the weekend.
As in Europe, frosts have seen orchard and vineyard operators use wind machines and fires in order to raise the temperature in their fields by a few degrees. Bud-break and leaf-out has already occurred across many varieties, increasing the odds of damage.
“Widespread low temperatures in the 20s to the low 30s are in store from much of the Great Lakes region to the central Appalachians, the interior mid-Atlantic and much of New England on Thursday morning,” report AccuWeather.
“The urban heat island effect may prevent frost in some large cities but only to a certain point. There is the risk of frost reaching some coastal areas of the Northeast on Thursday and Friday mornings, including in Boston and Philadelphia, as well as New York City and Washington, D.C. Frost is a concern around Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Pittsburgh — at least for Thursday morning.”
Australia To Shiver Into May, Defying BoM Predictions
Those Bureau of Meteorology forecasts calling for the hottest autumn/winter ever continue to look nothing but pie in the sky, agenda-driving claptrap.
Record-breaking lows and early-season snows was the story back in March and early-April, and now looking ahead, those cold-anomalies appear set to persist and even intensify into May–as per latest GFS runs:
Another Meter Of Snow Hits The Alps; Europe’s Crop Losses Worsen: “The Biggest Disaster Of The Last 100 Years”; + “Journalists Should Do Their Job”
April 26, 2024 Cap Allon
Another Meter Of Snow Hits The Alps
The Alps’ snowy spring shows no sign of abating with a host of resorts posting a meter (3.3 feet) of fresh powder since Wednesday. This adds to the impressive falls of last week, where Gstaad’s Glacier 3000–for example–logged 1.5m (5 feet).
At the start of this week, Austria’s Stubai Glacier in Tirol (see featured image), received almost 4 foot of snowfall. Owing to this, it is now posting Europe’s deepest snowpack, a remarkable 5.7 meters (almost 19 feet).
As a result, resorts officials have announced their staying open until late-May.
Switzerland’s Engelberg, also open into May, is the latest to report a meter (in just 72 hours) making for a depth of 4 meters (13 feet). In total, more than 30 ski regions are still open in the Alps, with half of those planning to stay open into May (at least).
As reported by weathertoski.co.uk, the last week-or-so has seen temperatures in the Alps hold some 10C below normal, “about as cold a spell of late season weather that we can remember. There has been plenty of snow too … the snow level has also been very low for late April … down to 300m (<1,000 ft). Needless to say, snow conditions have been amazing,” concludes the report.
Just a few months back, The Guardian decreed that ski resorts in the Alps were battling for a future:
After a lackluster January and February –pounced upon by the aforementioned vultures and spun as evidence of climate apocalypse– the Alps has been enjoying heavy snowfall ever since. So much snow has fallen in fact that resorts are pushing back their closing dates. But this isn’t deemed newsworthy fOr SoMe ReAsOn.
Europe’s Crop Losses Worsen: “The Biggest Disaster of The Last 100 Years”
While the cold and snow is cause for celebration for ski resorts, it’s proving disastrous for European growers.
Winter’s return has delivered bud-wrecking frosts from France to Ukraine, as reported yesterday; freezes that have now intensified and expanded further with growers in the Netherlands, Poland and the Czech Republic among the latest casualties.
As reported by freshplaza.com: “The continent has faced colder temperatures than initially forecast, raising concerns over food supply implications.”
Torches or ‘frost fires’ have lit-up European fields this week, a key defense against ravaging late-season frosts. Below are images of Karlín in the Czech Republic as Moravian winegrowers prepared for a freezing Thursday night:
But the fight has been lost for many Czech growers.
April cold records have been set, even a national one, as overnight lows hit -15C (5F) and feet of snow clipped the mountains.
According to a ČTK news report, this polar outbreak has destroyed almost the entire fruit harvest in the western part of the country, with the damage expected to exceed one billion koruna ($43 million). While in Moravia, the main district in the east (pictured above) 50% losses have been documented, with that number expected to rise as the out-of-season cold persists.
The head of the country’s Union of Gardeners, Martin Ludvik, has called the April frosts “one of the biggest disasters for the industry in the last 100 years,” adding “the damage was so great because the weather had been unusually warm in the previous weeks and the fruit trees were in full bloom,” he said.
Indeed, swings between extremes have compounded the problem. Since mid-April, Europe has registered a drastic cooldown, transitioning from record highs to record lows.
Franjo Crnković, a fruit farmer in Croatia: “It was very warm, we even had temperatures of up to 30 [86F] one day, and then all of a sudden it dropped to minus. The fruits and all of this are all destroyed, it’s over, if there are any apples left it will be [a miracle].”
Similarly, strawberry farms in Poland have suffered lows of -8C (17.6F), with bonfires doing little to mitigate the impact. The preceding warm phase, which saw thermometers exceed 25C (77F), induced extensive blooming. Young fruit flower buds can withstand lows of around -2C (28.4F). The current conditions, far exceeding that, have led growers to anticipate near total losses, describing the situation as “dire” and projecting a stark increase in fruit prices for the year.
“[The buds] simply won’t stay on the trees,” said Polish fruit grower Jarosław Głąb, “everything is falling down.”
Looking ahead, some warmth will return to central regions next week, only to be chased by another swing back to winter:
“Journalists Should Do Their Job”
The drive for Net Zero is a catastrophe for the people. It is a dastardly money and power grab masked as environmentalism. But it’s a drive that is exhausting itself. It’s pushed too hard and is now in pieces. The people have awoken, finally.
More than $6 trillion has been spent globally on renewable energy over the past few decades, including vast sums on 300,000 wind turbines. Yet fossil fuels still account for more than 80% of the world’s energy consumption, where it stood at the end of the last century, with the economic behemoths of China and India only increasing their reliance on coal and gas.
UK journalist/political presenter Andrew Neil has been calling out the circus for years.
It’s a pity Neil didn’t do the same when it came to the criminal COVID-19 lockdowns, but that’s another story.
In a recent addressing (or dressing down) of the government’s plans (or lack thereof), he said this: “In this very building, in this Parliament, there was near unanimity in going for Net Zero. I’m not sure there was even ever a debate on it, it just became the law of the land. It is when there’s a consensus like that, that journalists should do their job.”
Video courtesy of Net Zero Watch on X.
https://twitter.com/NetZeroWatch .
But there are hoops, hurdles and rules — truth isn’t enough, particularly when it comes to anything ‘global warming’.
Journalists are being handed a guide instructing them on how to “properly” report on extreme weather and climate change. The guide blatantly seeks to limit investigative endeavors and instead promote a single, universal take on the topic.
This World Weather Attribution initiative is supported by the University of Oxford and Imperial College London (the latter should ring a bell to those in the UK, with Imperial College now synonymous with doom-and-gloom –and woefully inaccurate– COVID-19 modelling), and its guide is intended to “help” journalists navigate this key question: “Was this event caused by climate change?”
“First, it introduces the science of ‘extreme event attribution’ — the method of attributing (or not) the degree to which the weather event was influenced by climate change,” reads the guide’s introduction.
“Second, it lays out the statements that can reliably be made about some of the extreme weather types of greatest public interest, even when no specific scientific study is being performed. This is based on current state-of-the-art knowledge using studies of recent extreme events and the latest IPCC report.
“And further down, it provides an easy-to-read checklist for each type of extreme weather event.”
Clearly, this guide is antithetical to true journalism. It reads more like a 1984 boot camp seeking to restrict a journalist’s curiosity and ability to dig, which will ultimately render the profession obsolete. Forwarding their global warming agenda is clearly the aim here, but said agenda would be just as well served with automated bots programmed to assign any gust of wind or passing cloud to ‘the climate emergency–which is basically what they’re getting. They want journalism, by its definition, dead.
“Every heatwave in the world is now made stronger and more likely to happen because of human-caused climate change,” continues the guide. “Journalists should be confident of attributing any extreme heat to human caused climate change.”
What we’re watching is a state propaganda wheel turning in real time.
–It’s sickening to see, that stomach-churning nervous kind.
The guide stumbles on numerous occasions, unsurprisingly. In fact, almost every other paragraph is a slap in the face to honest scientific inquiry.
It flat-out lies and all: “Every instance of extreme cold across the world has decreased in likelihood and intensity due to climate change.” Their own doctrine calls that one out: “Cold outbreaks are expected to increase in intensity as the Arctic warms” … “It seems very counterintuitive and surprising that a warmer planet can actually increase your odds of experiencing severe winter weather events–but that’s what our research has shown,” said Judah Cohen, principal scientist at Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research.
Then you have Kristina Dahl, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, who has a more reasoned take: “It’s a very active area of research and something that scientists are passionately debating and trying to figure out at the moment. It’s definitely not settled science.” Watch out Dahl, you’re verging perilously close to those guardrails.
Below is The Bible’s Guide’s “easy-to-read checklist for each type of weather event”:
UK Breaks Long-Standing Cold Record; Heavy Spring Snow Sweeps Northern India; Antarctica To -77C (-106.6F); + The Sea Ice Fallacy
April 29, 2024 Cap Allon
UK Breaks Long-Standing Cold Record
Britain has been cold of late. UK tabloids are even drawing comparisons to the Tambora eruption of 1816 and the subsequent freeze, calling 2024 ‘a year without a spring’ as thermometers continue to struggle even into late-April.
As reported by the Mirror: “Back in 1816, the enormous eruption of Mount Tambora beckoned in what has become known as the ‘Year Without Summer’. The historic blast sent an ash cloud into the atmosphere that blocked out the sun for months on end, killing crops across the world and plunging millions of people into a seemingly never-ending stretch of cold misery.”
Comparing 2024 to 1816 is an exaggeration, you don’t need me to tell you, but the UK has been cold — a reality that jars with alarmist predictions.
Back in March, senior meteorologist Jim Dale warned of a “frightening” hot summer in April “as a result of climate change”. In an interview with GB News, Dale said: “We will see hot weather start to bake in during the course of April.”
Wrong.
On Friday, April 27, a low of -6.3C (20.7F) was observed in the Lake District, England — the lowest temperature ever recorded in the United Kingdom for the date (in books stretching back to the 1800s), beating the -6.1C (21F) set in Glenlivet, Scotland in 1956.
The chill then persisted through the weekend just gone, delivering a low of -5.3C (22.5F) on Sunday. And looking to the next week, the mercury is forecast to continue its struggle to find double-digit highs.
Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, explained to the BBC why things have been so cold: “We’ve got a northerly wind bringing in very cold air from Greenland and the Arctic. There are still frozen seas up there so it’s coming from a very cold direction.”
–A natural explanation for the cold, of course; whereas anything hot is inexorably linked to human prosperity, naturally.
https://electroverse.info/uk-breaks-cold-record-spring-snow-india-antarctica-cold-sea-ice-fallacy/
Heavy Spring Snow Sweeps Northern India
As a heatwave grips portions of India’s south, fierce winter chills and heavy snows are hitting the north — the other side of the story The Guardian et. al refuseto mention.
If India’s toasty south is due to “human-caused climate breakdown,” as is the official claim, then what’s causing the biting freeze and disruptive snowfall a few-hundred miles to the north? Wait, I know this one — also “human-caused climate breakdown”!
“Winter is late this time shifting towards summer,” adds the poster of the above video, Rattan Dhillon.
I’ve noticed this is a theme playing out across much of the Northern Hemisphere.
A drawn-out/returning cold season spells misery for farmers.
Just ask European growers:
Antarctica To -77C (-106.6F)
Antarctica has recorded a new low temperature for 2024 — the anomalous -77C (-106.6F) set on April 27 at the French-Italian Concordia research facility. The Russian base Vostok, for those interested, posted a daily minimum of 75.5C (-103.9F).
The Antarctic has been shown to be cooling ever since reliable (satellite) temperature data has been available to us, since 1979.
The year 2021 saw the South Pole suffer its coldest winter ever recorded (April – Sept) in books dating back to the 1950s. And the freeze has endured.
Highlighting a few examples:
November 2022’s average of -40.4C made for coldest November since 1987. December 2022’s average of -29.1C turned out to be the South Pole’s coldest December since 2006. In fact, Nov 2022 to Feb 2023 went down as second-coldest such period ever recorded.
The year 2023, despite the volatile sea ice (not the ice on the Plateau, by the way), saw the cold records continue to fall.
In January (i.e. ‘summer’), readings well-below -40C were a regular feature. On Jan 29, Vostok posted -48.7C, the station’s lowest January temperature ever recorded (in operation data dating back to 1957).
The Sea Ice Fallacy
The data reveal Antarctica is cooling. While up north, a pause is ongoing at the Arctic. These realities are big problems for the AGW Party.
The Antarctic is home to 90% of Earth’s freshwater, all of it locked up as ice. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that consistently cold temperatures means that all that ice, all 25,000,000 gigatons of it, isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Alarmists have trouble applying logic like this, owing to a relentless, decades-long propaganda campaign.
2023 was a ‘blip’, another example of the wild volatility experienced by Antarctic Sea Ice Extent which, by the way, is now riding above the year 1980 (on par with much of the 1980s in fact) and also fast-approaching the 1979-1990 average:
2023 was a ‘blip’, another example of the wild volatility experienced by Antarctic Sea Ice Extent which, by the way, is now riding above the year 1980 (on par with much of the 1980s in fact) and also fast-approaching the 1979-1990 average:
Sea ice extent at Antarctica’s northern cousin, the Arctic, is currently at its highest level in many years, higher than it was 35 years ago, particularly around Alaska, and also comfortably above the 2011-20 average.
This is a reality the paint-tossers among us willfully ignore. But their delusions run far deeper than turning a blind eye to a sea ice map. Every aspect of their fantasy is built upon a denial of science. Case in point is Arctic ice. Even if the Arctic was to melt in its entirety, which it shows zero signs of doing—of course, any increase to sea levels would be negligible, basically non-existent.
This is because the Arctic, unlike Antarctica, has no land beneath it, it is a giant floating ice cube, and like ice cubes in a cup of water, melting them doesn’t change the water level, the water has already been displaced.
There is a very negligible rise due to this being freshwater added to saltwater (freshwater being a little less dense) but NASA say the difference is “minimal,” contributing just 1 millimeter to sea levels since 1994.
Alarmists still do not understand basic science:
22 April 2024
Intense storms from California to Dubai punctuated our spring weather this week. California continued to have very late rain and snow. The April 15th California storm dumped snow in the Rockies and deepened into a 980 mb low stretching again from Baffin Island to the Gulf of Mexico. Its cold front triggered severe weather and heavy rain. The Canadian Arctic air (1030 mb) is setting freeze warnings from Oregon to Tennessee. The Grand Solar Minimum signature weather is here! CNN warned of freezing and hard freeze this morning from the Ohio Valley to NY. More mountain snow is predicted of the next 10 daysfrom the Sierra to the Rockies.
Europe enjoyed spring-like warm weather; however a deep trough brought cool weather to Spain and Portugal and significant snow to the Pyrenees and Alps and Carpathians.
Rains and cool air return next week with temperatures dropping to freezing (from 30ºC in 24 hr) with snow in the Alps and mountains from San Marino to Bucharest and Skopje. Freeze warnings are in effect from France to the Balkans. Farmers and vintners are worried about their crops at this delicate period.
Dubai and SE Iran had quite a rare flash flood event in the Desert. This extreme storm creates an interesting question for the alarmists regarding thermodynamics and their lack of understanding. Yes, warm air has more energy and moisture carrying capacity. The dry deserts have plenty of hot air but no floods. Many are located near oceans - plenty of moisture. The global warming alarmists would have you believe the deserts will have severe storms given their simplistic view. The Dubai storm was triggered by a larger scale disturbance that could tap the normally available energy and trigger a record storm. It was very limited in area. I posted the satellite images. There is no relationship to CO2 alarmism, but they must claim every possible extreme event. Mother Nature is doing as she always does - protect us naturally. Even in Columbia where a severe drought dried reservoirs as seen on CNN, today the ECMWF model predicted 100 to 550 mm of rain this week. That should help mitigate the drought.
The southern hemisphere continued to cool and set cold records in the Antarctic with locally heavy snows triggered by deep 950-940 mb storms. The circumpolar jet is increasing in intensity with a wavy pattern that dumps heavy snow in the Andes and Coastal Antarctic mountains. Sea Ice is increasing as interior temperatures fall into the -70s ºC.
THE FOLLOWING TABLES show the observed temperatures at key points from Greenland to Vostok and the ECMWF 10-day snowfall forecasts at key points around the world where glaciers may be receding or growing.
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES and ECMWF 10-DAY SNOWFALL FORECASTS
https://photos.app.goo.gl/D4FSQPjmzrAwbS2q9
You can see the magnitude of the storms on windy.com and in NOAA’s GOES satellite imagery: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G18&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12
Temperature anomalies are tucked on:
tropicaltidbits.com
see: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024021212&fh=6
See details below in CURRENT EXTREMES: 11 March 2024
The windy.com wave map shows the deep storms:
see: https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,67.842,-1.230,3,i:pressure
Check out the albums below for detailed charts, satellite images, and observations:
Fall - Winter 2023:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZtfEjJRJ14eKVKpw6
Winter 2024: https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7
Review:
Atmospheric Rivers dominate precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere from Alaska to Greenland and Europe. These ARs are associated with intense cyclonic storms on the jet stream that dominate the weather. Recall tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones (Lows) and anticyclones (Highs) control our weather. Atmospheric River forecasts quantify the model computations of moisture flux from surface to 700 mb. This flux controls the duration and intensity of precipitation. Remember last winter when California had a record number of intense ARs that filled the “1000 yr“ drought’s reservoirs and extended Mammoth Mountain’s ski season into August 2023. Mammoth mountain is again accumulating heavy snows with a foot a day for 7 days in the last storm. California is drought free today as new ARs are pounding the coast again this winter triggering flash floods and debris flows in this saturated ground. The Colorado River Basin continues to benefit from these snowstorms from Colorado to Wyoming and Utah. Early season NRCS snow water equivalent SWE is running from 100 to 120% of normal.
NRCS Basin Data: https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#version=169&elements=&networks=!&states=!&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=any&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=true&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=2&basinOpacity=75&basinNoDataOpacity=25&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&popupBasin=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-8¶meter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&monthPart=E&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&useMixedPast=true&seqColor=1&divColor=7&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2020&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&relativeDate=-1&lat=43.728&lon=-104.797&zoom=5.0
Atmospheric River forecast by Marty Ralph’s team:
https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/
An important component of the Grand Solar Minimum is an increase in clouds due to its impact on our solar system’s magnetosphere and increased numbers of deep space cosmic rays penetrating our upper atmosphere and generating cloud condensation nuclei. Clouds produce many complex phenomena ranging from cooling as solar radiation is reflected back to space, to surface warming as heat is retained at night and radiational cooling is reduced under stratus and in fog. On a large scale temperature gradients control the winds and jet stream dynamics. Clouds also impact the sea surface temperature SST which can have profound impacts on the Earth’s energy budget from the El Niño to Jet stream intensity and location. NASA is now predicting a solar maximum of cycle 25 by January 2024 with some CMEs. Note: current climate models fail to adequately simulate clouds; hence, a serious limit to their long term predictions. The primary critical impact of the GSM is late spring frosts and early fall frosts that limit the growing season. it is difficult for long term models to predict these critical events accurately.
Volcanic activity has increased dramatically in November 2023 with two stratovolcanoes pumping huge amounts of volcanic ash into the stratosphere in the northern Hemisphere from Kamchatka, and the tropics from New Guinea. Iceland’s seismic activity also increased significantly and resulted in a small volcanic eruption. Stratospheric volcanic dust from volcanoes cause significant atmospheric cooling. During the Little Ice Age there were many volcanoes associated with the Milankovitch Cycle that also contributed to the cooling. Japan had a devastating earthquake in the last weeks.
During the winter, low clouds can keep the polar regions warmer, thus reducing the N-S temperature gradient that may lead to a weaker jet stream and a meridional flow. This wavy N-S flow enhances the warm and cold sectors of storms and hence, extreme temperature swings. Thus far this winter we have a very wavy jet steam. Have a look at my album’s examples.
The El Niño continues to weaken yet it covers a large area; however, so far California is following the intense winter weather associated with an El Niño. The latest SST observations show cold water below the thin warm El Niño water, thus indicating the likelihood of a la Niña forming soon. NCAR scientists called for a severe winter. Thus far, the Ontario-Hudson Bay 700 mb low has been pulling cold air south into the East much like last winter. Note: the eastern N American low gyrates in the Jet, hence its impact varies. The West and High Plains are on the western edge of the deep cold air, hence, they have brief cold blasts and may benefit from the Pacific ARs heavy snow; however, they will enjoy somewhat warmer winter temperatures than the NE. The Sudden Stratospheric Warming - SSW was predicted to pull extremely cold air into the entire US by mid-January and again in February and March. This verified quite nicely in January - burr ! We’ll see how March goes. It would appear that CHINA and Asia have been hit the hardest with severe cold weather this season and are now warming.
Dr. Valentina Zharkova, a solar expert from the Ukraine, talks about the sun’s impact on the el Niño in her interview below. She reviews the Grand Solar Minimum and solar system impacts on climate variability.
Valentina Zharkova’s interview at the end of this link provides a comprehensive review of the GSM physics from an expert in this field. Dr. Zharkova reviews the physics, mathematics, and relationships of solar cycles, orbital mechanics, magnetosphere impacts, volcano cycles, and el Nino cycles related to the earth’s inclination…
https://electroverse.info/coldest-may-80n-greenland-gains-warmer-in-the-past-zharkova-interview/
Her primary web site: https://solargsm.com/
September recorded increases in SMB occurred +6 GT and +10 GT on 1 and 2 Sept respectively setting new records and again this week with 8-10 GT. The accumulated SMB curve dropped to normal in December-February and is now at or above normal. see:
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
and
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next3d,69.945,22.148,4,i:pressure,m:fDTafyg
The jet stream continues strong with a sharp meridional - wavy N-S flow from N America to Europe. Short waves trigger storms as they become more frequent and more powerful. Their wind shear can still spin up tornadoes in convective storms normally seen in spring and fall. Omega blocking ridges control the speed of system movement.
See:
https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?awp_0_40,34.089,20.303,4,i:pressure,m:ff3agyK
see: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
Snow:
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,74.902,-40.649,4,i:pressure,m:fOdadW1
Rain:
https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,next10d,51.944,-74.399,4,i:pressure
Japan and N Korea armed a bit with 2-38 cm of snow on the mountains of N Korea and Japan respectively with record cold and snow.
TropicalTidbits.com (forecast models) also gives you a look at the temperature departures from normal associated with these storms. You can see the warm and cold sectors - the normal variations of global temperature.
The Himalayas had heavy snow on the peaks with most areas receiving 1-3 m. The Tibetan Plateau is high ~3-5 km msl with new snow from the Himalaya to Shan ranges. Total snow on the ground on 9/3/23 still ranged from 0.5 to 5 m. This high elevation massif is a major factor controlling global weather patterns. Its unusual snowfall this summer may have a significant impact. The Hindukusch have had significant snows of 0.5-2.0 m again this week. Delhi set cold records, northern India and Pakistan had record snows last week.
Southern hemisphere jet is intensifying as the sun marched north cooling the Antarctic. It is now driving several large deep storms (976 to 936 mb) circling the Antarctic. Antarctic still has large areas in the interior below -40 to -75º C as measured in Windy’s satellite surface temperatures - even this January was reporting below -40ºC - a year without summer. On 3 Sept the South Pole reported -74.9ºC (-102ºF) and -80ºC at Vostok… Last week as the Antarctic begins cooling into Fall. Vostok broke -50ºC in December and -60 in March. This week the temperature again fell below -100ºF. Howling blizzards are still circling the Antarctic coast with 30 to 50 kt winds near these storms. The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea are 95% and 100% sea Ice covered respectively. SEA ICE is now increasing rapidly. McMurdo Base has been quite cold at -19 to -25ºC setting records and grounding aircraft in September. Temperatures in the Antarctic are cooling, and remaining significantly below normal. This week McMurdo rose to -19º C. The Antarctic set a November record cold of -60ºC. December and now January are setting new cold summer records: On Jan 4, 2024, the minimums at Concordia, JASE2007 AWS and Vostok were all, once again, below -40C, coming in at -40.8C, -40.2C and -40.1C, respectively. The South Pole set its 3rd coldest March record at -60ºC this week.The sun is moving N, so the cold is settling in down under. South Georgia Island had snows reaching 53-76 cm this week.
Southern Africa set cold records and snow as deep cyclonic storms march across the South Atlantic pumping Antarctic Air northward. Even Madagascar and Reunion Island set new cold records and had some snow in October 2023. Record snow fell in late October 2023.
AUSTRALIA has had a variety of summer weather. Antarctic highs set new cold records in June and July and are continuing to set cold records. Sydney set a new cold summer record when it failed to reach 32ºC (89.6ºF) in December 2022. Australia’s Victoria and South Australia had some much below normal temperatures and cold records to -2.7ºC. Western Australia cooled as the Antarctic waves moved north. Frosts developed in Queensland and the NW Territories - in subtropical Australia! This week large areas of Australia continued to have heavy rain : Darwin 150-500 mm, N Queensland had 95-162 mm as tropical cyclones hit. However, much of Australia had significant rains: Canberra 50 mm. Alice Springs remained cool at 20-25 ºC. Normally we see 30 to 45ºC in the satellite surface temperatures on windy.com but Alice Springs remained in the 20s with a couple 40ºC days. The cloud top temperatures near Darwin were -80ºC in deep thunderstorms. Last week a major Antarctic cold front moved northward over Australia triggering heavy rains up to Alice Springs. Monthly cold records were set in March. Note: DR Jennifer Marohasy discusses Australian forecasts and observations every week.
JENNIFER MAROHASY’s latest: https://jennifermarohasy.com/2024/01/cyclone-jasper-bom-forecasting-getting-to-the-truth/
Note: 2023 was the first time since 1987 when Australia’s mountains had snow on the ground all year. The mean February temperature was 0.2ºC below normal making the summer mean temp 0.5ºC below normal. New Zealand continues to increase snows over the South Island with 20-70 cm and heavy rain at low elevations on the West coast 100-300 mm. Note: October 25-30, 2023 the interior of Australia had satellite surface temperatures from 10 to 31ºC - spring was here with a few cool highs. During the past weeks, February 1-26, it was much cooler followed by a few 30-40ºC days. Last week the deserts were 10-15ºC behind an Antarctic front. Last week the Snowy range had 11 cm - an early start to winter.
South America was warm, but cold fronts are predicted to take temperatures 5-10ºC below normal next week. The Andes continued to build their glaciers (1-2 m). South American snow was at record levels. Patagonia had significant snows and skiing in the Andes continued in November 2023. Surface temperatures reached 30ºC this week in Patagonia. Argentina and Brazil continue to be warm, yet, some Antarctic cold fronts have triggered thunderstorms and locally heavy rains (100-300 mm) in the South of Brazil by Iguazu Falls. The Iguazu region had heavy rains and floods in contrast to a record drought in the Amazon Basin. However, the past month had heavy rain in the upper headwaters of the Rio Negro and Amazon Rivers. Deep thunderstorms with top temperatures of -70 to -80ºC are helping mitigate the drought. These mesoscale convective complexes can dump 100-200+ mm. Rio and Sao Paulo had flash floods and have remained wet. Columbia is predicted to have 100-550 mm rains this week 22-29 April.
https://www.windy.com/-New-snow-snowAccu?snowAccu,next10d,-66.653,-60.776,4,i:pressure,m:NPaelA
For those interested in understanding the current weather, I have documented events in the Albums showing model, satellite, radar, images.
New 2/26/24
Winter 2024: https://photos.app.goo.gl/DdoiQp1TL7DGMC1B7
WSJ: How Climate Policy Went Wrong:
A new documentary on climate: Well worth viewing —
Climate: The Movie" highlights a different perspective on the climate change debate and is supported by scientists who have signed the Clintel's World Climate Declaration. This group of researchers seeks to present an alternative narrative in the face of the dominant discourse.
Electroverse provides an excellent source of extremes not reported in the MSM:
Latest Extremes: 22 April 2024
Heavy Snow Slams Northwestern Iran; Europe Braces For Spring Freeze; + Bureau of Meteorology Forecasts Record-Warm Winter For Australia, Ignoring The Data (And Cooking The Books)
April 15, 2024 Cap Allon
Heavy Snow Slams Northwestern Iran
Rare mid-April snow has blanketed areas of northwest Iran, including in the town of Khalkhal.
The snow has been heavy and all, with reports suggesting 50 cm (20 inches) has fallen, resulting in widespread road closures.
In line with the snow, temperatures have also fallen in recent days — to record-challenging levels for the time of year.
This region of Iran is considered one of the agricultural hubs of the country. And as reported by ifpnews.com (who provide the below video), “the sudden cold snap has caused concern among local farmers during the spring season”.
https://electroverse.info/snow-iran-europe-spring-freeze-bureau-of-meteorology-cooking-the-books/
Europe Braces For Spring Freeze
While spring 2024 has delivered record-breaking cold and snow to the likes of Scandinavia and the Alps, more central and eastern regions of Europe have been enjoying unusual spring warmth, an early onset of summer.
This week, however, that anomalous heat will be disappeared by a dramatic temperature drop. Highs of 30+C (86+F) this past weekend will be replaced by single digits by mid-week as well as damaging overnight frosts/widespread lowland snows.
This return to winter will be long lived too, lasting until at least the end of the month.
Latest GFS runs reveal the swing between extremes, calling for a dive from 16C above seasonal norms on Sunday, April 14 to as low as 16C below by Wednesday, April 17–where temperatures are expected to remain for the foreseeable.
The BBC ran articles last week claiming ‘global boiling’ was to blame for Europe’s heat, adding that we’re in “uncharted territory”.
BBC ‘journalists’ were keen to ignore the position of the jet stream in their reportings of the heatwave, but now they’re more than happy to incorporate it in their analysis of this upcoming cool down. Where excretions of “planet-warming gases” were to blame for a toasty start to spring, natural forcings are of course responsible for this encroaching spring freeze (and heavy snow).
Europe is flipping from the ‘blocking high’–responsible for dragging that tropical heat northwards–to a ‘dipole pattern’ which will see a strong high pressure system park over the North Atlantic and drag down (and trap) cold polar air over the continent.
“It starts with the solid upper trough ejecting off the northeast North Atlantic on Monday,” reports severe-weather.eu, “rapidly digging towards central Europe on Tuesday and the Balkan peninsula by mid-week.”
Europe will experience a significant cooling, “an intense cold period”, continues severe-weather.eu — a return to wintry weather.
This will come as shock to the system, and, rather than supporting the CAGW theory of ‘ever hotter’, will instead add further weight to the low solar activity theory, which states: “reduced output from the sun weakens the jet stream, changing its standard ‘straight’ ZONAL flow to a ‘weak and wavy’ MERIDIONAL one” (click below for more).
Low elevation snow is forecast for many by Tuesday evening, owing to rapid a temperature decrease.
Fresh snow will accumulate across the Apennines and Carpathians of Romania and the High Tatras of Slovakia, and also across Croatia, Bosnia, and Montenegro. The Balkans could see something of an April burial by Wednesday. Italy too will cop its share.
Unsurprisingly, the Alps will continue its remarkable winter-extending run of snow, where recent totals have already made up (and more) for what was a rather lackluster Jan/Feb. Accumulations exceeding a meter (3.3ft) are easily achievable this week.
Low elevation snow is forecast for many by Tuesday evening, owing to rapid a temperature decrease.
The likes of Austria and Slovenia will see the brunt of that drop.
Fresh snow will accumulate across the Apennines and Carpathians of Romania and the High Tatras of Slovakia, and also across Croatia, Bosnia, and Montenegro. The Balkans could see something of an April burial by Wednesday. Italy too will cop its share.
Unsurprisingly, the Alps will continue its remarkable winter-extending run of snow, where recent totals have already made up (and more) for what was a rather lackluster Jan/Feb. Accumulations exceeding a meter (3.3ft) are easily achievable this week.
The fallen snow will only aid temperatures in their plunge below freezing, which in turn will threaten new plantings with hard frosts.
Many growers are warning, that will spring in full swing, that the cold-damage to orchards and vineyards could be “catastrophic”. We can expect ‘frost fires’ to be lit across Europe’s vineyards in the coming weeks, as has been an increasingly regular scene in recent years.
From the UK through France and Germany, up north, down south, and way out east, the cold will be expansive, with only the far west (i.e. Portugal) spared.
And looking ahead, the freeze looks set to intensify into next week with the snows also stepping up.
This is when the worst of the frost damage could occur, when the 850 mbar temperature anomaly chart (below) is expected to read 8-10C below average which is “beyond extreme,” according to Marko Korosec, lead forecaster for severe-weather.eu.
The impacts of El Niño, Solar Maximum, and Hunga-Tonga have also supported global temperatures in recent months (natural forcings that the BBC also opts to downplay, or fail to even mention).
However, this ‘warming trifecta’ is now waning: La Niña is forecast to return this year, Solar Cycle 25 may have already peaked, and Hunga-Tonga’s record mesospheirc injection of water vapor is (very slowly) beginning to dissipate.
Global temperatures WILL come crashing back down to early-2023 levels, i.e. back down below baseline.
Is Europe getting a taste of what’s to come…
Feet Of Spring Snow Pound Colorado; U.S. Braces For Record April Cold; Met Office’s Antarctic Sea Ice Report; + Stock Market Behaving Eerily Similar To 1929
April 18, 2024 Cap Allon
Feet Of Spring Snow Pound Colorado
Heavy snow is battering the high country this week, with a wide area, including Larimer County, receiving 3 feet.
The National Weather Service (NWS) says the aptly named Never Summer range as well as Medicine Bow saw even higher totals.
While across Colorado ski areas, snow enthusiasts are rejoicing the late season top up. In just a 24-hour period through Tuesday, well-over foot of fresh snow was reported at Loveland Ski Area, Vail Ski Resort and Copper Mountain, to name just three.
U.S. Braces For Record April Cold
“Protect your outside plants! A Freeze warning has been issued,” warns newstalk870, speaking to the Tri-Cities of Washington.
The NWS in Pendleton is warning of freezing temperatures in the Lower Columbia Basin and in the Yakima/Kittitas Valleys Thursday morning, with thermometers dropping to 28F – 32F, perhaps beyond.
Latest GFS runs reveal the extent of the descending polar air which could span some 30 states and stretch the length of the CONUS, from Montana to Texas (from Canada to Mexico, in fact).
Focusing on Montana, record-breaking cold is expected there, according to ktvh.com.
Cold temperatures, a biting wind chill, and areas of snow will continue for the next several days here. Overnight lows will enter the 10s across a wide area, with daily highs holding in the 30s for many. The mountains will dip into the single digits (F).
And a quick word on Europe, where “catastrophic” frosts threaten growing regions from France to the Balkans with heavy out-of-season snow to boot. Well, the big spring freeze is good for one thing: it returns those wet-eared Cassandras back to the shadows.
No Spring In Sight For Much Of Russia; Temperatures Are Falling Globally; + Ruang Volcano Erupts To 55,000 Feet
April 19, 2024 Cap Allon
No Spring In Sight For Much Of Russia
April snow is building across Russia.
Starting in the east, the likes of Magadan and Kolyma have seen substantial spring snowfalls of late which have pushed the snow depth to 58 cm (1.9 ft) in the former, setting a new record there.
Looking west, to European Russia, freezing lows and heavy snows have returned to the Leningrad region, among others.
As forecast by hmn.ru, the snow will intensify into the weekend here, “after which the Northern capital will become white with snow.”
https://electroverse.info/russia-chills-temperatures-falling-ruang-to-55000-feet/
St. Petersburg, for example, is enduring “a return of winter landscapes due to the collision of a southern cyclone with cold Arctic air.” Here, daily highs will hold around the freezing mark for the foreseeable, which, when combined with the intensifying snow, will make for chaos on the roads — a situation compounded by the vast majority of motorists having switched to summer tires.
Temperatures Are Falling Globally
Continuing West, Europe is dealing with a fierce swing between extremes this week.
In Slovenia, for example, summer crashed back to winter in less than day:
Speaking to the heavy spring snow, flakes are falling from Scandinavia and Scotland down through France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Italy, out east over the likes of Ukraine, and also down south well-into the Balkans.
Over a meter (3.3ft) is settling in some parts, with much more on the way.
Checking in with alpine webcams, these heavy snows are extending the ski season:
As per the latest forecasts, these anomalous lows and heavy snows look set to stick around.
“We thought this year Europe had been sparred from the ‘April damnation’ but hell no,” writes @extremetemps on X. “Every run the cold is worsened AND prolonged with no real end in sight. Say goodbye to your apricots for the fifth year in a row.”
What good is ‘global warming’ if year-after-year late-season freezes delay the onset of spring:
Ruang Volcano Erupts To 55,000 Feet
Aiding the global cool down will be this week’s powerful eruptions at Mount Ruang:
Mount Ruang, a 2,400 foot stratovolcano on Ruang Island, North Sulawesi, Indonesia has erupted at least seven times since Tuesday night, firing ash plumes as high as 55,000 feet into the sky — and so into the stratosphere.
Preliminary reports say the volcanic explosivity index (VEI) could reach 4, perhaps 5.
No casualties have been reported, but this was never expected to be a killer, rather a cooler. The cooling effects from Ruang will be felt for years to come, and should go someway to offsetting the warming caused by Hunga Tonga’s submarine spewing (VEI 5).
The Tonga eruption expelled unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere (10 – 30% extra) which has temporarily warmed the planet (water vapor being the most potent of the common greenhouse gasses and also the most abundant).
These impacts are waning naturally, but Ruang’s stratospheric injection of ash will assist in the cooling.
Latest reports reveal the plume of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) already extends over 1000 kilometers.
El Niño Has Officially Ended
The 2023 El Niño has ended, say the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The Pacific Ocean has “cooled substantially” in the past week.
The naturally occurring El Niño brought warmer waters to the surface of the Pacific, adding heat to the atmosphere and putting on hold the cumulative cooling effect of years of low solar activity.
The BBC, seemingly annoyed by a “quicker than expected” end to El Niño and the subsequent threat of a returning of La Niña (as it would lead to a stark drop in global temperatures), have stepped up the ‘catastrophism’, going so far as to suggest that La Niña may actually never return.
The BBC argues, with the help of the BoM, that “as the current global ocean conditions have not been observed before, inferences as to how ENSO may develop in 2024 that are based on past events may not be reliable.”
A returning La Niña is indeed a big blow to the AGW Party.
According to ‘The Science’ (linked below), El Niño should be the dominate ENSO pattern in a warming world. If La Niña ends up ruling, which appears to be the case (with NOAA forecasting 2023-24 to be the fourth La Niña winter of the last five) then something entirely different is likely playing out.
Norwegian Ski Resort On For Bumper Summer Season; Europe Freezes; Official Datasets Continually ‘Find’ More Warming; + Solar Maximum Is Near
April 22, 2024 Cap Allon
Norwegian Ski Resort On For Bumper Summer Season
The Folgefonna Glacier in Norway is being readied for the upcoming summer season, which is expected to be a bumper one given winter and spring’s record-challenging snowfall (the best since 2015, so far).
Fonna Glacier Ski Resort, one of only six ski resorts/areas in the world to open exclusively for the summer months, has seen “massive snowfalls this winter thanks to one of the coldest winters in decades,” reports snowbrains.com.
In early-March, Fonna was digging out its ski lift following a monstrous snowstorm that dropped 10+ meters (33 feet). And thanks to favorable conditions ever since, skiing is “slated to be epic this summer”.
Eyeing east, to Finland, some exceptionally late ‘ice days’ are being registered there.
Turku Airport, for example, struggled to -0.4C (31.3F) on Sunday; Jokioinen Ilmala managed a daily high of just -1.5C (29.3F); with Tampere Pirkkala Airport reaching just -2.6C (27.3F) — the latter appears to have set a new coldest April low-max (in 44 years of record keeping at the locale), pipping the -2.5C (27.5F) set back on April 1, 1998.
“None of the weather stations in Finland rose above two degrees Celsius, not even the marine stations,” writes Mika Rantanen, of the Finnish Meteorological Institute.
“Remarkable for this late in April.”
https://electroverse.info/norwegian-snow-europe-freezes-datasets-find-warming-solar-max-is-near/
Finland’s cold has proved long-lasting, too.
Case in point: Sunday (April 21) marked the 200th day of ‘thermal winter’ in Sodankylä Tähtelä, Lapland (a period where the daily mean temperature holds below the freezing mark). This makes 2023-24 the longest winter since 1994-95, which lasted 215 days.
Snow cover is also proving historic in these parts, having now been on the ground since Oct 8, 2023 — one of the longest-ever stretches in books dating back to 1910.
And given Europe’s ongoing freeze, which is set to run into May (more on that below), combined with the ≈70 cm (27.5 inches) of snow left on the ground, Tähtelä has a shot at breaking its all-time record-stretches for snow cover AND thermal winter, both of which stand at 231 days (Oct 3, 1968 – May 23, 1969).
Europe Freezes
It isn’t just the far north enduring an extension of winter, cold and snow have returned to much of Europe. What forecasters had feared is now playing out: catastrophic frosts across the continent’s growing regions, particularly central areas.
“The air mass is so cold for late April that it could significantly damage blooming fruit trees, vineyards, and crops,” reported @severeweatherEU as the ‘blues’ and ‘purples’ began descending — cold that is expected to persist for the foreseeable:
Over the weekend, in Serbia, -8C (17.6F) was registered in Karajukića Bunari; in Bosnia and Herzegovina, -6C (21.2F) hit Sokolac; while in Montenegro, -10C (14F) hit Kosanica — to name just three locales.
Monday is bringing an intensification of the freeze.
Heavy snow is accompanying the spring cold.
Some 70cm (27.5 inches) hit the likes of Firstalm, Upper Bravaria, Germany on Sunday:
As atmospheric scientist Wei Zhang writes:
“When adjustments are made for various reasons, you would expect half the time it would increase the warming trend and half the time it would decrease it. But every adjustment I’ve ever seen has increased the post World War II warming trend.”
Tony Heller goes further:
“It is incomprehensible to me how any serious person could look at this hockey stick of data tampering, and not recognize it as systematic fraud…”
Bureau of Meteorology Forecasts Record Warm Winter For Australia, Ignoring The Data
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, temperatures will be above average for most Aussie states this May to July, which could result in the warmest winter ever recorded by the Bureau’s inaccurate and heat-skewed network of weather stations.
It’s also going to be dry, add the BoM, but they’ve been promising Aussies drought for years now and all it ever seems to do is piss it down. Heavy early-season snows have even clipped the alpine regions of late, almost two month before resorts are due to open. This works to kill both birds with one stone: its needs to be cold to snow, and it also needs to be wet to snow.
Hurricanes 2017: All time Records
- Details
- Category: News and Events
- Created on 01 October 2017
- Published on 01 October 2017
Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria set all time historic records of intensity, duration and catastrophic damage. This is byfar the worst most destructive hurricane season the United States has ever had. We have suffered hundreds of deaths, massive destruction of property and land, and Billions in damage. These hurricanes were well predicted and emergency evacuations ordered days in advance of the landfall thanks to NOAA's forecast teams, emergency managers and local governments.
GLOBE
- Details
- Category: News and Events
- Created on 31 October 2016
- Published on 31 October 2016
GLOBE - Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment GLOBE presents an opportunity for students, teachers, and scientists to learn and develop scientific thought processes and to understand our environment. In the early 1990’s Vice President Al Gore had an idea to help children around the world use the internet to communicate and learn about each other and their environment. His goal was to have at least one computer in every school around the world. He wanted students to improve their understanding of science and math thru making observations that they could share. I had an opportunity to meet Dr. Sandy McDonald, Director, Forecast Systems Laboratory, NOAA when he was helping Al Gore develop the early stages of GLOBE in 1993. At the time I worked with the US Bureau of Reclamation and was a visiting scientist at NCAR in Boulder, Colorado. NCAR and UCAR hosted many meetings on GLOBE and UCAR now hosts the GLOBE Implementation Office (GIO). One of my interests has been to promote GLOBE in various regions. After returning from Morocco in 1988, I maintained interests with the Direction de la Meteorologie National and with friends at the Casablanca American School. Morocco joined GLOBE after helping make the connections there.
Today, I am interested in helping Slovenia join GLOBE. This effort dovetails with US Ambassador, Brent Hartley’s interest in developing a partnership between the Slovenian Triglav National Park and Crater Lake National Park in Oregon. Environmental science and biodiversity are common interests of Triglav and Crater Lake park rangers and environmental scientists.
Lyn Wigbels, International Coordinator, GLOBE Implementation Office relayed this information about recent GLOBE Student Research Experience: "I was pleased to hear about the Ambassador’s project which sounds like a great venue for involving students in the GLOBE Program. Over the years, GLOBE activities have been organized in national parks. Most recently, during our 20th GLOBE Annual Meeting in Estes Park, Colorado, in July, GLOBE students visited Rocky Mountain National Park to take part in a Student Research Experience:
http://www.globe.gov/news-events/globe-news/newsdetail/globe/video-captures-the-essence-of-the-2016-globe-student-research-experience?
This video truly captures the essance of the GLOBE scientific discovery process and clearly demonstrates how it works to engage students from around the world in learning about nature and their environment. It shows how students apply the scientific procss and communicate their discoveries to others working with their mentors.
Joining GLOBE can be a life changing process that enables teachers, scientists, GLOBE partners, and alumni to improve their understanding of earth.
2015 Year of Extremes
- Details
- Category: News and Events
- Created on 03 November 2016
- Published on 03 November 2016
Selected Extreme events of 2015
LATEST Major Weather Events
30 NOV 2015: COP21 Climate Talks in Paris
Leaders from over 180 countries from around the world are meeting in Paris to develop a comprehensive plan to curb greenhouse emissions and develop renewable energy. President Obama noted that terrorists were unable to stop such an important meeting of world leaders from taking place. President Obama clearly stated that the US has taken significant steps to slowing emissions and are now producing renewable energy that is competitive with conventional fuels. He stated specific goals for emission reduction of 17% by 2020 and 25% by 2025 and requested that other countries do the same with significant commitments with capitol to drive down costs of clean energy. The US supports emission reductions, but will not sign an agreement!!!!
Data from 2015 indicate that this is the warmest year on record based on surface measurements. Extreme weather continues around the world from record winters to extremely hot summers. Today, Bejing’s pollution set records 17 times greater than world health standards.
7 Dec 2015: Extreme floods in Channi, India and UK.
India battling deadly floods in Chennai
Weeks of heavy rain and flooding have inundated Chennai, India
In 24 hours, Chennai received as much rain as London would in 6 months (CNN)Weeks of heavy rain and flooding have knocked out power, suspended public transportation and left people stranded in Chennai, one of India's largest cities. It has rained 34 of the past 40 days and the heavy-rain-warning continues, according to CNN meteorologists. The rain warning for the southern Indian states of Tamil Nadu and neighboring Puducherry are forecast through December 5, according to India's main weather office.
UK has extreme Precipitation:
Office: Rain and storms soaked the northern U.K. this weekend, prompting evacuations, severe flood warnings and the arrival of the army in the worst-hit areas. Rory Stewart, the British floods minister, told the BBC that Storm Desmond has “broken all the U.K. rainfall records” and unleashed “a completely unprecedented amount of water.”
Drone footage shot above Kendal, a flood-hit town in Cumbria, shows the flooded cricket ground and people wading through inches of water.
Storm Desmond dumped more than 10 inches of rain on some areas in England, including the northwestern county of Cumbria, while other rain-battered regions such as North Wales got more than seven inches, according to the Met Office, the U.K. weather forecaster. Nearly 50 severe flood warnings (which indicate danger to life) remain in effect in England and Wales, while 32 flood warnings are in place in Scotland.
An Environment Agency spokesman warned "significant flooding" was expected in the area, adding: "The situation is serious and there is a significant risk to life.” Homes around the 18th century stone bridge, over the River Wharfe, were evacuated by soldiers.
An Environment Agency spokesman warned "significant flooding" was expected in the area, adding: "The situation is serious and there is a significant risk to life."
The strongest El Nino on record is likely to increase the threat of hunger and disease for tens of millions of people in 2016 aid agencies say.
December 30, 2015 CNN:
More than 18 million Americans live in areas under flood warnings, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday.Thirteen states are affected, NOAA said.
One of the states most affected is Missouri, which is grappling with deadly flooding that will threaten cities and towns along rivers for days even through the most of the rain has stopped.
Levees have been overtopped in West Alton, just north of St. Louis. And late Tuesday, St. Charles County emergency officials ordered all people to evacuate the mostly rural area, which lies on the Mississippi River.
Record flooding on Mississippi There have been an estimated 49 weather-related deaths in the past week across the country, with the current severe storm system blamed for 35 deaths: 13 in Missouri, 11 in the Dallas area, five in southern Illinois, five in Oklahoma and at least one in Georgia. Many died after their cars were swept away by floodwater.
Record Flooding in Mississippi River
225 roads closed across Missouri I44 closed in 2 places
US Streamflow Map 30 DEC 2016
Major historic flooding: NOAA Flood Forecast Map
Flood Hydrograph showing historic flood at Cape Girardeau Mississippi: 27 DEC 2015 to 6 Jan 2016
Latest News
- Details
- Category: News and Events
- Created on 17 December 2013
- Published on 17 December 2013
In 2013, after a dry early season mid-February, March, April and May provided heavy snows that brought our Summit County weather station total accumulated WaterYear snow to 243 inches and 18.14 inches of water equivalent on May 31, 2013. This resulted in excellent late season ski conditions in the central Colorado Rockies.
Fall 2013 brought good early season snows and excellent ski conditions for the World Cup races at Beaver Creek shown below. Totals at my Summit weather station SU-6 by December 17, 2013 were 68.7 inches total snow accumulation and 3.89 inches snow water equivalent for the current WaterYear (1 Oct 2013 to 30 September 2014).
In May, our collaborations continued in SLOvenia with Janez Polajnar at ARSO and Mitja Brilly at the University of Ljubljana FGG. Europe had a very cold, wet, winter with deep snows in the Alps and many storms from the North Atlantic which maintained a deep cold trough over western and central Europe and a warm southerly flow of dry air in eastern Europe that set record high temperatures on the north Finland coast at 29C, while Slovenia remained cool at 10 C setting recod low temperatures at the end of May. On June 2, the ARSO high altitude observatory at Kredarica (2515 m msl) had 260 cm of snow on the ground. June is bringing again 100-200 year floods in central Europe, similar to those that caused havoc in 2002 in Prague on the Vltava and Elbe in Germany, and along the Donau from Linz to Budapest.
