Hydrometdss

28 May 2019 By In Blog style

May 28, 2019


The laws of physics have not changed, yet we continue to develop our understanding and improve our numerical models to better represent these fundamental truths.  The spring of 2019 has presented records of cold, floods, snowfall and heat around the world.  May has broken all time snowfall records in Minnesota, California, Australia, and the Andes.  I continue to monitor the global weather and watch the jet stream patterns which are still quite strong in both hemispheres, unusual for May when the northern jet weakens and southern jet intensifies normally.  The 150 to 180 kt jet continues to steer strong storms across the Pacific through the US and into the North Atlantic producing unseasonably intense tornados and flooding in the central US, cool East, snows in California’s High Sierra.  As it crosses the North Atlantic,  it has continued a strong blocking pattern with the Icelandic Low and another Siberian - Arctic polar vortex in east central Asia.  These have produced very wet conditions across southern Europe, and central Asia.

Astronomers and planetary physicists are observing a long period of little or no solar flares this past 60 days.  They noted that the sun’s magnetosphere has weakened thus permitting more cosmic rays to enter our solar system.  These have been linked to this year’s stratospheric warming by NOAA’s and the USAF space weather forecastersNASA’s scientists have also measured the stratospheric warming.  See NASA’s Solar and heliospheric Observatory SOHO for more information.  This upper atmospheric warming is linked to the infamous “polar vortex” which drew polar and arctic air south across eastern Canada and the US breaking many records last winter and this spring.  A similar polar vortex developed and persisted over eastern Siberia from January to May.  

In the Southern Hemisphere during their fall March to May 2019, the jet stream was strong producing many cyclonic storms in the Southern Ocean which had 970 to 930 mb center pressures.  These large winter storms produced heavy snows on the Antarctic coastal mountains with maximum 10-day forecasts of 1 to 3 meters of snow according to the ECMWF 9 km resolution global model.  In the southern Andes, this model predicted many 10-day periods of 2 to 4 m of accumulation.  Further north in New Zealand and Australia, they have had early snows of 50 to 150 cm on the south island and in the Snowy Range of Queensland 30 to 70 cm forecasts.  Canberra has coldest May day in 19 years.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has some interesting Space Weather Services that discuss the solar minimum.
These unusual physical observations around the world some say confirm that we are moving into an ice age - not global warming.  Let’s continue to watch and be prepared for climate’s change.

19 November 2018 By In Blog style

Extreme weather from record low Antarctic temperatures of -95 to -98ºC (Ice Age?)  to a large number of super typhoons, Category 4-5 Hurricanes and late season tropical storms. 

Winter 2018-2019 new COLD records

Eastern US hits record low temperatures from Minnesota to New York in January 2019. This was followed by cold records in February in Phoenix 47ºF and deep snow of 40 inches in Flagstaff, AZ.  The ECMWF model predicted these extremes which were verified.  Are we really approaching a significant Grand Solar Minimum that leads to an Ice Age IN 15 YEARS?  Have a look at the paleoclimate, oceanographic, geophysics, and astrophysics experts:

See:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPLq_Dixs8A 

Orbits & Ice Ages: History of Climate:  Physicist 's perspective of Paleoclimate:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yze1YAz_LYM 

Orbital predictions of ice ages and famine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I_lsZCAWi4 

 February 2019

Record heavy snows in California at Mamoth Mountain with over 400 inches of snowfall by February 20, 2019. From the Oregon Cascades to High Sierra heavy winter precipitation provided relief after the extreme fires of late 2018. 

 

Summer 2018
July and August 2018 were warmer than normal with records broken in the UK, and Europe, and many hot periods occurred in the US, while in the Southern hemisphere it was cold and record low temperatures were set in the Antarctic.  Several sites reported temperatures below -95ºC.  The previous record at Vostok was -89ºC.  NASA observed a -98ºC by satellite and this was confirmed on the ground.  Australia, New Zealand and the Andes had heavy winter snows of over 50, 300, and 450 cm according to the ECMWF global 9 km resolution model’s 10-day forecasts.  These heavy snows continued through the Southern Hemisphere summer from October 2018 to February 2019 in the Andes and the Antarctic as a strong jet stream persisted. This produced an unusual series of storms circling the Southern Ocean and dumping from 50 to 248 cm in the Antarctic, and 81 to 470 cm in the 10-day ECMWF forecasts over the Andes.  In February 2019, Greenland had a new snow forecast of 628 cm in 10-days, the highest amount I have seen in the ECMWF forecasts.


The hurricane season was active with over nn named storms in the Atlantic and the Pacific.  Several super typhoons hit the western Pacific and Hawaii.  Hurricane Florence developed in the Atlantic and moved steadily toward the Carolina coast striking on 14 September.  Media sources called this the “storm of a lifetime” several days before making landfall.  Models were consistent in placing the track into the Carolinas with maximum rainfall from 700 to 900 mm predicted on the NC coast by the ECMWF model.  NOAA WPC predicted up to 36 inches with extreme flash flooding and storm surges of up to 12-18 feet.  The models had up to 11 m at sea in the NE quadrant. Over one million coastal residents were under a mandatory evacuation on Monday, 4 days before the predicted Friday landfall.  The storm was also moving slowly and feared to stall along the coast.  Forecasts on 091318 had the storm slowly moving into SC then accelerating across Georgia into the Ohio River Valley by 091518.  As I write this paragraph, the storm is 250 miles southeast of NC and moving NW at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds down to 110 from 150 mph yesterday.  The warm 85ºF water temperatures are keeping it an active, serious, catastrophic storm threat.

Fox News reported:

"Hurricane Florence is poised to affect more than 10 million this week in the southeastern U.S. as it makes landfall in the Carolinas.
Once a powerful Category 4 storm, Florence was downgraded to a slow-moving Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall along the coast of the Carolinas. However, forecasters warn the storm could bring catastrophic storm surges and cause devastating flooding. Over one million coastal residents were under a mandatory evacuation on Monday, 4 days before the predicted Friday landfall.  The storm was also moving slowly and feared to stall along the coast.  Forecasts on 091318 had the storm slowly moving into SC then accelerating across Georgia into the Ohio River Valley by 091518.  As I write this paragraph, the storm is 250 miles southeast of NC and moving NW at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds down to 110 from 150 mph yesterday.  The warm 85ºF water temperatures are keeping it an active, serious, catastrophic storm threat.
Hurricane Florence is poised to affect more than 10 million this week in the southeastern U.S. as it makes landfall in the Carolinas.
Once a powerful Category 4 storm, Florence was downgraded to a slow-moving Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall along the coast of the Carolinas. However, forecasters warn the storm could bring catastrophic storm surges and cause devastating flooding.

SUPER TYPHOON Mangkhut 13 Sept 2118
Super Typhoon Mangkhut is moving toward the Phillippeans with 150 to 180 kt winds and heavy surge and rains. Centre pressure was 933 mb while Florence had 956 mb and 110-140 kt winds as it approached NC.

By JIM GOMEZ | Associated Press
MANILA, Philippines –  Typhoon Mangkhut retained its ferocious strength and slightly shifted toward more densely populated coastal provinces on Friday as it barreled closer to the northeastern Philippines, where a massive evacuation was underway.
More than 4 million people are at risk from the storm, which the Hawaii-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center categorizes as a super typhoon with powerful winds and gusts equivalent to a category 5 Atlantic hurricane.

Extremes of Weather and Nature 1 October 2018
Super Typhoon Trami passed Japan with damaging winds and rains as it became a category 2 storm. On September 30, a 7.5 magnitude earth quake hit Indonesia causing a huge total wave and massive destruction.  Over 900 bodies have been found and many more missing by 1 October.   On 2 October the death count reached 1,234 as search and recovery crews reached the shore.
BBC reports:
"People in Palu, Indonesia, are growing increasingly desperate for aid after a quake and tsunami hit the town.
Supplies of water, food and fuel are scarce and with roads damaged it is proving hard to bring more in, or reach the more remote areas.
The BBC's Jonathan Head, who is in the town, saw police firing warning shots and tear gas at crowds trying to take items from a small shop.
At least 844 people are confirmed to have been killed by Friday's disaster."

Wikipedia 2 Oct 2018:
The 2018 California wildfires are a series of wildfires that have burned across the state of California during 2018. A total of 6,721 fires had burned an area of 1,508,556 acres (6,104.91 km2), according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection and the National Interagency Fire Center, as of October 1.[1][2][3] The fires caused over $2.959 billion (2018 USD) in damages, including $1.35 billion in fire suppression costs.[4][5][6][7] Through the end of August 2018, Cal Fire alone spent $432 million on operations.[16] The Mendocino Complex Fire burned more than 459,000 acres (1,860 km2), becoming the largest complex fire in the state's history, with the complex's Ranch Fire surpassing the Thomas Fire to become California's single-largest modern wildfire.[17][18]
On August 4, 2018, a national disaster was declared in Northern California, due to the massive wildfires burning there.[19]

 

Hurricane Michael strengthens to Category 4 storm, considered 'extremely dangerous'
By Stephen Sorace | Fox News

Hurricane Michael was upgraded early Wednesday to “an extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm and could be the most powerful storm to hit the Florida Panhandle in 100 years, forecasters said.
The storm’s sustained winds have increased to about 130 mph, with higher gusts, the National Hurricane Center said. The agency said it is possible the storm could strengthen further before it makes landfall later Wednesday.

"This is going to have structure damaging winds along the coast and hurricane force winds inland," meteorologist Ryan Maue of weathermodels.com told the Associated Press.
The Florida Panhandle could see storm surges of up to 13 feet and flash-flooding from heavy rainfall, the NHC said. The chance of tornadoes will also increase into Wednesday over parts of the Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and southern Georgia.
The storm, which formed off the coast of northern Honduras, has already killed at least 13 people in Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador. Torrential rains triggered flash-flooding and landslides in Central America over the weekend.

 

November 4, 2018
Extreme fall weather his western Europe
This past week saw heavy mountain snows, extreme rains and debris flows from Malta to Slovenia in flash floods, and destruction of marinas, boats, and seaside facilities.  A deep trough brought cold air into the Med and N Africa spinning up an upper low that produced a flux of moisture out of Africa into the Alps.  The ECMWF predicted 1-3 m of snow over the 10 day period.  They received that much.

Euro News:

1.  Serious flooding around the Arno River has swamped the Italian cities of Pisa and Florence in Friday. According to officials in Pisa, the river has reached levels unseen over the last 20 years.
As a result, a team of emergency workers are erecting barriers and reinforcing banks to try to channel water into the sea.
2. Venice heavily-flooded as deadly storms batter Italy
Venice was shut off on Monday after heavy rain left much of the city submerged.
Local authorities blocked access to St Mark's Square and said high tide had reached the fourth highest level ever recorded.

Elsewhere in the country the bad weather left at least nine people dead and four others seriously injured, said interior minister Matteo Salvini.

4 Nov 2018

Avoriaz in France earlier this morning:
Heavy snowfall in the Alps has continued for the past 36 hours and accumulations so far reported have been as high as a metre in one case.
It’s the second major snowfall in as many weeks, raising hopes of a bumper start to the 2014-15 ski season, which for most resorts begins in 3 – 6 weeks’ time.  It is expected some areas may now open earlier than planned.
However around 20 glacier areas are already open in Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland and it is here that the snowfall is actually being measured, with most areas reporting 20 – 60cm so far.
The main storm is expected to continue to the end of Friday, although some forecasters are saying snow will continue for the next 2 days and that up to five metres of snow can be expected on some mountains.
Most of the snow is falling above 2000m, but some resorts as low as 1500m are posting images of heavy resort level snow on social media.

California Wild Fires Raged

Camp Fire Incident report: inciWeb Incident Information System:
“Chico, CA - November 19, 2018: Firefighters made good progress throughout the day to strengthen and improve containment lines. Crews have continued to work in steep and rugged terrain to construct direct and indirect lines which will aid in stopping the fire’s forward progress. Firefighters and utility cooperators worked within the fire’s interior to patrol for heat and remove hazards.

Firing operations are occurring in key areas on the eastern side of the fire as conditions allow. Crews successfully tied indirect control line into Highway 70 on the west side of the Feather River today.

Multiple California Urban Search & Rescue (US&R) Task Forces and US&R Human Remains Detection Canine Search Teams have arrived to assist Butte County Sheriff with the search for, and recovery of, victims missing in the areas affected by the Camp Fire.  

Size: 150,000 acres Containment: 65% Cause: under investigation 
Firefighter Injuries: 3 Civilian Fatalities: 77 

Single Residences Destroyed: 10,364 Single Residences Damaged: 338 Multiple Residences Destroyed: 259 Multiple Residences Damaged: 24 Commercial Structures Destroyed: 418 Commercial Structures Damaged: 81 Other Minor Structures Destroyed: 2,992 Other Minor Structures Damaged: 92 

Total Personnel: 5,332 Engines: 597 Water Tenders: 65 Helicopters: 28 Hand Crews: 100 Dozers: 823
  Air Tankers: Air tankers are flying fire suppression missions as condition allow from thoughout the state.
The Camp Fire has produced an online Camp Fire Structure Status map.

 

02 October 2017 By In Blog style

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria set all time historic records of intensity, duration and catastrophic damage.  This is byfar the worst most destructive hurricane season the United States has ever had. We have suffered hundreds of deaths, massive destruction of property and land, and Billions in damage.  These hurricanes were well predicted and emergency evacuations ordered days in advance of the landfall thanks to NOAA's forecast teams, emergency managers and local governments and privte sector meteorologists and firms.  Tracks of the storms clearly show the destruction.  Harvey developed rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico and stalled over the Texas coastal region. Irma moved rapidly across the Carribean islands and up the Florida west coast.  Maria hit the windward islands and flattened Dominica as the Cat 5 eye passed directly over then on to USVI and Puerto Rico.  NASA showed the devastation in LANDSAT images of Barbuda and the US Virgin Islands where the lush green vegetation turned brown as leaves were torn off.

The European Center for Medium Range Forecasts provided an excellent long range prediction of the track and total precipitation in Hurricane Harvey over Texas.  Windy.com provided a map of 10-day total accumulated precipitation which matched Harvey's track and record precipitation remarkably well. Harvey approached the Texas coast with 95 to 115 kt winds and had a very large slowly moving classic satellite image shown below

.HRVYSat082517s8x6

The models continued to increase their precipitation forecast as the storm oscillated over the land and Gulf of Mexico for 4 days, dumping huge amounts of rainfall. Windy's ECMWF 6-day forecast from 082517 is shown below. NASA's Earth Observatory provided an analysis from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) of more than 500 mm fom 25-28 August 2017.  They also noted that record precipitation of 49.2 inches was observed from 25-29 August. NASA's Soil Moisure mission SMAP also showed significant increases in soil moisture in the Houston area which contributed to the rapid runoff and wide spread devastating record floods.

 

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The River Forecast Center predicted record floods from the early forecasts of heavy rains.  This helped emergency managers announce manditory evacuations early as the storm approached, thus saving lives and property. AccuWeather also alerted its commercial clients to the flood emergency and told them to protect staff and equipment. The TV networks were on top of the warnings and kept the public informed as the storm approached.

 

 

 

 

30 September 2017 By In Blog style

I have published a new book:

WEATHER or NOT: Meteorological Decision Sources

Make your own weather and climate related decisions

by Dave Matthews, PhD

Copyright 2017 by Dave Matthews, PhD

You can go to Amazon Kindle eBooks to have a look and order the book.  This book deals with all forms of weather and climate information sources that can improve your life's decisions.  New and improved October 2017 version is now available that includes information about the 2017 devistating hurricane season and links to clear figures. Amazon automatically updates your original version.

I will donate 90% of the royalties from the first year to the victims of this year's catastropic hurricanes: Harvey, Irma, and Maria via the Rotary hurricane victim recovery fund. Your reviews are appreciated.

Weather impacts your decisions every day, and having accurate forecasts help you decide what to wear or do, or possibly save your life when severe weather hits. Chances are you’ve gone online to find out what the weather’s going to do before, but there’s a lot of options.

The Internet puts a ton of weather data at your fingertips, but it’s not the easiest to navigate. It’s also sometimes difficult to tell whether or not a source is reputable. It is my hope that this book will provide a source of information that you can use each day to plan your life and work from vacations and sports, flights and sailing, to planting and harvesting, and understand better complex issues like climate and climate change. I have provided examples in figures that demonstrate how to navigate the pages where you can find this information.

We’re bombarded with weather information every day, so it’s important to know how to independently assess the truth. This book provides a ready source of truthful scientific information that you can easily use, understand and evaluate. It is designed as an electronic “e-book,” that can be used as a real-time reference to free web sites and Apps which are maintained by scientists around the world. You can see what is really happening and make your own decisions.

To illustrate my point, I’ll discuss severe storms, flooding, summer snows on Greenland, winter storms in the Antarctic and Andes, and surfing waves and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, etc. Many of these examples address climate change and sea level rise issues like the extent of glaciers and their recession and growth. I have provided examples in figures that demonstrate how to navigate the complex web pages, while showing interesting cases that provide information on severe storms, flooding, summer snows on Greenland, winter storms in the Antarctic and Andes, surfing waves and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, etc. Many of these examples address climate change and sea level rise issues like the extent of glaciers and their recession and growth.

 

As I do the final edit and formatting of this book we have experienced an Epic Hurricane Harvey and resulting 1000-year flood in Texas. The sources I discuss in this book did an outstanding job of predicting this truly catastrophic storm. Windy.com’s prediction of the total 10-day accumulation of precipitation was 45 to 55 inches along the Gulf Coast near Houston. Today, on September 4, 2017, the ECMWF 10-day forecast has Hurricane Irma heading to the south Florida east coast with 222 mm of rain around Miami and on up into Virginia. This track has been changing, hence the need to closely monitor conditions and use the latest National Hurricane Center warnings. At this time the NHC is showing a track across the Caribbean Islands toward south Florida and Cuba possibly again into the Gulf of Mexico.

 

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